Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[FB19]

Interesting most posters are strong to the fact we will not give up pick 3 this year for Smith, but would give up possibly pick 3 next year for him.

I think it’s a combo of the quality of the top 5-6 this year and positional point of difference. according to draft watchers 2024 is midfield heavy at the top end.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

* MEGA BLOCKBUSTER TRADE version 2.0 *

Draft Picks PRE-Trading
Hawks - 3, 29, 48
GCS - 4, 28, 31, 42, 47, 56, 60, 65, 69
GWS - 6, 12, 50, 68, 73
North - 2, 16, 38, 39, 54
WCE - 1, 19, 53, 59

-------------------

TRADE #1
North
IN - 1, 19, 54
OUT - 2, 16, 39

WCE
IN - 2, 16, 39
OUT - 1, 19, 54

TRADE #2
North
IN - Frost
OUT - 54

Hawks
IN - 54
OUT - Frost

TRADE #3
WCE
IN - Brockman, 54
OUT - 35, 57

Hawks
IN - 35, 57
OUT - Brockman, 54

* Values Brockman at approx. pick 37.

TRADE #4
GCS
IN - F1, 29, 35
OUT - 4, 47, 56

Hawks
IN - 4, 47, 56
OUT - F1, 29, 35

TRADE #5
GWS
IN - 4
OUT - 6, 12, Haynes

Hawks
IN - 6, 12, Haynes
OUT - 4

* Values Haynes as a negative asset of approx. pick 18.

-------------------

Draft Picks POST-Trading
Hawks - 3, 6, 12, 47, 48, 56, 57
GCS - 28, 29, 31, 35, 42, 60, 65, 69
GWS - 4, 50, 68, 73
North - 1, 19, 53, 59
WCE - 2, 16, 38, 39, 54

-------------------

TOTAL movements for each side:
Hawks
INS - 6, 12, 47, 56, 57, Haynes
OUTS - F1, 29, Brockman, Frost

GCS
INS - F1, 29, 35
OUTS - 4, 47, 56

GWS
INS - 4
OUTS - 6, 12, Haynes

North
INS - 1, 19, Frost
OUTS - 2, 16, 39, 54

WCE
INS - 2, 16, 39
OUTS - 1, 19, 35, 57

-------------------

Hawks take picks - 3, 6 and 12 to the draft.

Hawks use picks - 47, 48, 56, 57 (994 points) to match any bid on McCabe. With the discount we could match a bid at pick 13 outright. For reference pick 13 is worth 1,212 points, which is 969.6 points with the discount.

We also bring in Gresham as a FA.

In the end we gain - 3, 6, 12, McCabe, Gresham for our F1, our 2023 draft hand, Brockman and Frost. Essentially four first rounders this year.

GCS will have a total of 3,138 points to match the bids on their three Academy players. Though I don't think it would be enough, as, that won't be able to match if the bids came in at 5, 14 and 18 for example.

They'll probably get some more points if they move Hollands on. If they are able to get another pick in the mid/late 30's for Hollands, then they will easily be able to match bids at 5, 10 and 15 for example.

North move up to pick one and take the generational talent in Reid. They also get Frost for a late pick.

WCE move back one spot and take Curtin. They get Brockman.

GWS move off the negative asset contract, and in doing so they replace pick 6 and 12 with pick 4.

Do you need sleepy Mark’s email address?

 

[TazHawk15]

I am a bit out of the loop as I am in the UK but I just read that we have put a big money offer to Esava, I know we need a big bodied defender but I am not sure about him.

 

[FB19]

* MEGA BLOCKBUSTER TRADE version 2.0 *

Draft Picks PRE-Trading
Hawks - 3, 29, 48
GCS - 4, 28, 31, 42, 47, 56, 60, 65, 69
GWS - 6, 12, 50, 68, 73
North - 2, 16, 38, 39, 54
WCE - 1, 19, 53, 59

-------------------

TRADE #1
North
IN - 1, 19, 54
OUT - 2, 16, 39

WCE
IN - 2, 16, 39
OUT - 1, 19, 54

TRADE #2
North
IN - Frost
OUT - 54

Hawks
IN - 54
OUT - Frost

TRADE #3
WCE
IN - Brockman, 54
OUT - 35, 57

Hawks
IN - 35, 57
OUT - Brockman, 54

* Values Brockman at approx. pick 37.

TRADE #4
GCS
IN - F1, 29, 35
OUT - 4, 47, 56

Hawks
IN - 4, 47, 56
OUT - F1, 29, 35

TRADE #5
GWS
IN - 4
OUT - 6, 12, Haynes

Hawks
IN - 6, 12, Haynes
OUT - 4

* Values Haynes as a negative asset of approx. pick 18.

-------------------

Draft Picks POST-Trading
Hawks - 3, 6, 12, 47, 48, 56, 57
GCS - 28, 29, 31, 35, 42, 60, 65, 69
GWS - 4, 50, 68, 73
North - 1, 19, 53, 59
WCE - 2, 16, 38, 39, 54

-------------------

TOTAL movements for each side:
Hawks
INS - 6, 12, 47, 56, 57, Haynes
OUTS - F1, 29, Brockman, Frost

GCS
INS - F1, 29, 35
OUTS - 4, 47, 56

GWS
INS - 4
OUTS - 6, 12, Haynes

North
INS - 1, 19, Frost
OUTS - 2, 16, 39, 54

WCE
INS - 2, 16, 39
OUTS - 1, 19, 35, 57

-------------------

Hawks take picks - 3, 6 and 12 to the draft.

Hawks use picks - 47, 48, 56, 57 (994 points) to match any bid on McCabe. With the discount we could match a bid at pick 13 outright. For reference pick 13 is worth 1,212 points, which is 969.6 points with the discount.

We also bring in Gresham as a FA.

In the end we gain - 3, 6, 12, McCabe, Gresham for our F1, our 2023 draft hand, Brockman and Frost. Essentially four first rounders this year.

GCS will have a total of 3,138 points to match the bids on their three Academy players. Though I don't think it would be enough, as, that won't be able to match if the bids came in at 5, 14 and 18 for example.

They'll probably get some more points if they move Hollands on. If they are able to get another pick in the mid/late 30's for Hollands, then they will easily be able to match bids at 5, 10 and 15 for example.

North move up to pick one and take the generational talent in Reid. They also get Frost for a late pick.

WCE move back one spot and take Curtin. They get Brockman.

GWS move off the negative asset contract, and in doing so they replace pick 6 and 12 with pick 4.

Love the mega trade!
My thoughts on each trade
1 - eagles give too much it’s Harley I would keep 19 it’s a strategic pick
2 & 3 good fair value for frost who fills a need and I had brockman for eagles 3rd so well aligned
4 - suns giving too much back and depending on what points they get in trade window may not need 2 seconds it’s a wait and see and will happen on the night we hope they trade in good points to make our f1 the best offer
5 - the idea was Haynes and a r1 pick as a salary dump but seems like something would have to go back this values that as pick 50 (diff btw 4 and 6) suspect we would need to give up more than pick 50 but it’s interesting and not a mile off. That said I don’t do it for 2 reasons, first we don’t get one of the guns with it unless a Bolted gets taken early and 2 it’s the goddesses pick 6 although I guess Walter bid makes it another year with pick 7!

Definitely a lot of merit here I’m on the get the suns pick rather than Bailey smith train 2 top 5 picks and McCabe plus Tew Jiath and Gresham is a hell of a trade and draft period.

 

[Hawkers Hero]

* MEGA BLOCKBUSTER TRADE version 2.0 *

Draft Picks PRE-Trading
Hawks - 3, 29, 48
GCS - 4, 28, 31, 42, 47, 56, 60, 65, 69
GWS - 6, 12, 50, 68, 73
North - 2, 16, 38, 39, 54
WCE - 1, 19, 53, 59

-------------------

TRADE #1
North
IN - 1, 19, 54
OUT - 2, 16, 39

WCE
IN - 2, 16, 39
OUT - 1, 19, 54

TRADE #2
North
IN - Frost
OUT - 54

Hawks
IN - 54
OUT - Frost

TRADE #3
WCE
IN - Brockman, 54
OUT - 35, 57

Hawks
IN - 35, 57
OUT - Brockman, 54

* Values Brockman at approx. pick 37.

TRADE #4
GCS
IN - F1, 29, 35
OUT - 4, 47, 56

Hawks
IN - 4, 47, 56
OUT - F1, 29, 35

TRADE #5
GWS
IN - 4
OUT - 6, 12, Haynes

Hawks
IN - 6, 12, Haynes
OUT - 4

* Values Haynes as a negative asset of approx. pick 18.

-------------------

Draft Picks POST-Trading
Hawks - 3, 6, 12, 47, 48, 56, 57
GCS - 28, 29, 31, 35, 42, 60, 65, 69
GWS - 4, 50, 68, 73
North - 1, 19, 53, 59
WCE - 2, 16, 38, 39, 54

-------------------

TOTAL movements for each side:
Hawks
INS - 6, 12, 47, 56, 57, Haynes
OUTS - F1, 29, Brockman, Frost

GCS
INS - F1, 29, 35
OUTS - 4, 47, 56

GWS
INS - 4
OUTS - 6, 12, Haynes

North
INS - 1, 19, Frost
OUTS - 2, 16, 39, 54

WCE
INS - 2, 16, 39
OUTS - 1, 19, 35, 57

-------------------

Hawks take picks - 3, 6 and 12 to the draft.

Hawks use picks - 47, 48, 56, 57 (994 points) to match any bid on McCabe. With the discount we could match a bid at pick 13 outright. For reference pick 13 is worth 1,212 points, which is 969.6 points with the discount.

We also bring in Gresham as a FA.

In the end we gain - 3, 6, 12, McCabe, Gresham for our F1, our 2023 draft hand, Brockman and Frost. Essentially four first rounders this year.

GCS will have a total of 3,138 points to match the bids on their three Academy players. Though I don't think it would be enough, as, that won't be able to match if the bids came in at 5, 14 and 18 for example.

They'll probably get some more points if they move Hollands on. If they are able to get another pick in the mid/late 30's for Hollands, then they will easily be able to match bids at 5, 10 and 15 for example.

North move up to pick one and take the generational talent in Reid. They also get Frost for a late pick.

WCE move back one spot and take Curtin. They get Brockman.

GWS move off the negative asset contract, and in doing so they replace pick 6 and 12 with pick 4.

Projecting the draft:

Spoiler

Pick 1) North - H. Reid
Pick 2) WCE - Curtin
Pick 3) Hawks - Duursma
Pick 4) GWS - Watson
Pick 5) GCS - Walter (matching bid)
Pick 6) Melbourne - McKercher
Pick 7) Hawks - Caddy / O'Sullivan
Pick 8) Cats - Sanders
Pick 9) Essendon - O'Sullivan / Caddy
Pick 10) Crows - Leake
Pick 11) Doggies - Wilson
Pick 12) GCS - Read (matching bid)
Pick 13) Doggies - Croft (matching bid)
Pick 14) Sydney - Murphy
Pick 15) Hawks - A. Reid

In one off season we could end up with:
Duurma
Caddy
A. Reid
Gresham

Future Team:

Hardwick - Blanck - Mitchell
Scrimshaw - Sicily - Weddle

Reeves - Day - Newcombe
Amon - Worpel - Ward

Moore - Reid - Caddy
Butler - Lewis - Gresham

INT: Nash, CJ, MacDonald, Mackenzie, Impey, McCabe, DGB (?), Meek (?)

Awesome effort!

Only flaw I see with this is that WC will not give up Reid for marginal 2nd and 3rd round pick upgrades.

Either way, don't think it affects the Hawks parts which arr a dream!

 

[KermitJagger]

Gossage has really pulled back the blinds on West Coast's list strategy here. No smoke and shadows behind the windows.

 

[Bugs1977]

I

I am hopeful, but trying to keep expectations low.

Free agency is the first challenge! Gresham and McKay would be big wins.

An would just need to play there roles at the Hawks. McKay breaking even with the FF, would allow Mitchell, Sicily and Scrimshaw to clean up.

An if Gresham could add defensive pressure and snag a couple of goals each week, would add so much to the team structure.

Some of those close loses, would be wins.

In relation to McKay do really think that we're after him and in turn do you think we'd strum up the $$$ to net them Band 1 compo? I'm not big on McKay but if the club decides to go that route then I'd hope we'd only guarantee Band 1 compo if they don't choose whomever we want (ie Watson / Duursma / McKercher). I know the chances of this happening are unlikely but I'm not cool with us netting North Band 1 compo with the guarantee that our draft choice is on the board still.

If an agreement could be made and assuming WC take Reid and North make a bid on Walter with pick 2 then who do we think North take with consecutive picks? I reckon they'd go with Curtain + McKercher which would leave us with a choice between Watson + Duursma. In what would IMO be a ridiculous overpay we also net McKay as a longterm fullback. The issue I have with McKay is more to do with his durability rather than his skills which aren't top notch but he'd tasked with keeping the oppo KPF honest which I think he could do but the big question can he stay on the park to do so.

Pick 1 – WC – Reid
Pick 2 – GC – Walter
Pick 3 – North – Curtin
Pick 4 – North – McKercher, Watson or Duursma
Pick 5 – Hawks – ???

 

[burner1]

Any news on our interest in fringe players such as lohmann? Or likely to stay quiet until teams out of finals?

 

[Bugs1977]

Edmund and Ralph are adamant he is staying.

Caro and Cleary adamant he's going.

Who is right?

Caro and Cleary have a decent strike rate whereas the other 2 are like TMZ AFL

 

[KermitJagger]

Any news on our interest in fringe players such as lohmann? Or likely to stay quiet until teams out of finals?

Last I heard the Lohmann interest had cooled

 

[Bugs1977]

Agree. They sound nervous to me.

Agreed. The press releases on Smith and Trealor sound like company line spin. Yeah all is well and everyone is happy guys!

 

[Walshawk]

Awesome effort!

Only flaw I see with this is that WC will not give up Reid for marginal 2nd and 3rd round pick upgrades.

Either way, don't think it affects the Hawks parts which arr a dream!

WC will, because North know that WC want Curtain, not Reid.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Do you need sleepy Mark’s email address?

I'll even let him take the credit if he pulls it off

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

In relation to McKay do really think that we're after him and in turn do you think we'd strum up the $$$ to net them Band 1 compo? I'm not big on McKay but if the club decides to go that route then I'd hope we'd only guarantee Band 1 compo if they don't choose whomever we want (ie Watson / Duursma / McKercher). I know the chances of this happening are unlikely but I'm not cool with us netting North Band 1 compo with the guarantee that our draft choice is on the board still.

If an agreement could be made and assuming WC take Reid and North make a bid on Walter with pick 2 then who do we think North take with consecutive picks? I reckon they'd go with Curtain + McKercher which would leave us with a choice between Watson + Duursma. In what would IMO be a ridiculous overpay we also net McKay as a longterm fullback. The issue I have with McKay is more to do with his durability rather than his skills which aren't top notch but he'd tasked with keeping the oppo KPF honest which I think he could do but the big question can he stay on the park to do so.

Pick 1 – WC – Reid
Pick 2 – GC – Walter
Pick 3 – North – Curtin
Pick 4 – North – McKercher, Watson or Duursma
Pick 5 – Hawks – ???

I don’t think his worth band one. End of round one is the highest in my opinion.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

Last I heard the Lohmann interest had cooled

Dogs have been linked to him today.

 

[Lickmesocks]

I'll even let him take the credit if he pulls it off

Sleepy can become a hero here if he can pull a couple of rabbits out of the hat and set us up.

 

[Yardie]

Do you need sleepy Mark’s email address?

Just send out the vibes. He'll get it in his dreamcatcher......

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[CHUBBSS]

Flags, pretty simple answer

 

[Colloquy]

This one is coming from the media with Caro and Mitch Cleary. I’d accept that we are keen, the questions are whether he is, what other clubs can offer him and what the Bulldogs demand/require.

Smith fills a significant list need as an explosive midfielder. His best is electric and he’s only 22. Two years ago it would have seemed impossible to get him

What position would he play I think we are a midfielder short in the middle or would he play wing.

What would he be worth in draft picks.

 

[Rhayader]

Caro and Cleary have a decent strike rate whereas the other 2 are like TMZ AFL

TMZ breaks more big celeb news than anyone. It’s mostly gossipy trash, but that’s what they are trading in and no one else comes close to them.

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[TylerDurden]

No mention of us. But surely our FF would get that deal done.

 

[rei154]

I just can't see GCS doing that given pick 4 can net them more assets in future drafts and that they will be able use in a more open draft- why would they go out of their way to help Melbourne?

 

[TylerDurden]

I just can't see GCS doing that given pick 4 can net them more assets in future drafts and that they will be able use in a more open draft- why would they go out of their way to help Melbourne?

And most likely miss on Curtin in that trade.