2023 young talent time

[Lach72]

Well these kinds of threads are always fun. So in terms of picks I understand we have (and I am sure someone will correct me):

• North Melbourne 2nd round priority pick (Guessing range would be 19-22)
• North Melbourne 3rd round priority pick (37-41)
• Carlton 3rd Round priority pick (50ish)
• North Melbourne 4th round priority pick (50ish)

So because everyone is so unconsciously biased towards WA products, let's try and take a broader perspective lets name an initial potential player for each both from WA and from somewhere else:

North Melbourne 2nd Round Priority Pick

• Non-West Australian option: Colby McKercher (Tasmania) - 181cm Wingman, traits: burst pace, hard running, high possessions. Downsides: gets caught doing too much sometimes, small, might not last till this pick.
• West-Australian option: Riley Hardemann (Swan Districts) - 185cm Wingman, traits: hard running, good disposal, decent possession numbers, played a senior WAFL game already numbers: Downside: only medium sized category, does he have the top pace?

North Melbourne 3rd Round Priority Pick

• Non-West Australian option: Sam Frangalas (Dandenong) - 187cm midfielder/forward, traits: Long kick, explosive, good size downsides: sometimes a bit wayward, not big possession getter, not really stamped himself as a pick me yet.
• West Australian option: Lance Collard (Subiaco) - 188cm forward traits: kicked bags of goals at WAFL colts, "bag of tricks" player, explosive, pressure at ground level downsides: wafer thin and light weight, unlikely to be a midfielder

Carlton 3rd Round priority pick

• Non-West Australian option: Billy Wilson (Dandenong) - 182cm HBF, traits: good kick and link man, speed and run, gets decent numbers downsides: small defender - do we need another?
• West Australian option: Sam Van Rooyen (Claremont) - 193cm Forward, traits: good kick, endurance and marking, possibly some flexibility in position, runs on the board in the goal kicking area downsides: probably too small for a key forward at afl level (more high third forward / half forward flank), speed off the mark.

North Melbourne 3rd Round pick

• Non-West Australian option: Ben Ridgeway (Glenelg) - 181cm midfielder, traits: captain/leadership material, speed, hard working inside midfielder good on the spread, downsides: small, kicking under pressure, nothing totally outstanding shown yet.
• West Australian Option: Aiden O'Driscoll (Perth) - 177cm midfielder: pace to burn, decent possession numbers at WAFL colts. downsides: very small player, not outstanding possession numbers.

None of that is exciting tbh

 

[Dockeroo]

None of that is exciting tbh

We should be able to pick at least one high quality player in this draft with those picks.
I would even bundle up pick 21 and 39, for example and use both picks to buy say, pick 16 or 17 with them if we felt that gave us a better look at a decent player.
At least we would be back in the first round albeit the late first round.
Can also trade a F2 to get up the order a bit. But not the F1 let’s leave that off limits for now. An additional benefit of getting back into Round 1 this year is that it provides more flexibility in the coming years when we won’t need to observe the 2 first round picks in a 4 year period rule.

Deathriding north is important to improve our position. I wouldn’t Mind seeing Hawks and eagles win a few games to lift them off the foot of the ladder and above north - it could be the difference between us trading a couple of spots higher into the first round even.

 

[Superkoops]

We should be able to pick at least one high quality player in this draft with those picks.
I would even bundle up pick 21 and 39, for example and use both picks to buy say, pick 16 or 17 with them if we felt that gave us a better look at a decent player.
At least we would be back in the first round albeit the late first round.
Can also trade a F2 to get up the order a bit. But not the F1 let’s leave that off limits for now. An additional benefit of getting back into Round 1 this year is that it provides more flexibility in the coming years when we won’t need to observe the 2 first round picks in a 4 year period rule.

Deathriding north is important to improve our position. I wouldn’t Mind seeing Hawks and eagles win a few games to lift them off the foot of the ladder and above north - it could be the difference between us trading a couple of spots higher into the first round even.

22 and F2 should fetch a decent pick. Alternatively packaging current and future 3rds for a team needing pts should fetch a decent second.

Could for example if we play things right with teams needing pts could work things quite well.

39/40 (Nth), 47/48 (Car), F3 > 27 & F4

21/22 & 27 > 13 & later pick

Package later pick and F2 for 29

13, 29, 56

Retain F1

 

[Dockeroo]

22 and F2 should fetch a decent pick. Alternatively packaging current and future 3rds for a team needing pts should fetch a decent second.

Could for example if we play things right with teams needing pts could work things quite well.

39/40 (Nth), 47/48 (Car), F3 > 27 & F4

21/22 & 27 > 13 & later pick

Package later pick and F2 for 29

13, 29, 56

Retain F1

Yeah I like this. That’s realistic and doable if bell is able to play his cards right.
Might be a tad optimistic getting 13 in that last pick swap but it’s not far away from being very possible.
What we need are some FS players or Northern academy kids that are bid on around pick 12-15. Our picks become very attractive to that particular side then.
Since the MSD came in I am convinced anything after pick 40 is virtually worthless. There is now around 55 players picked and if you really want a guy from 41-57 or so, you should have some F3 or F4 lying around on draft night to get your man without too much stress. It wasn’t like that 5 years ago or before however and those 40s picks had some genuine value.

 

[Taylor]

The first thing to do then is look at which academy and father son players will be chewing up their team's first round pick.

 

[Bastyy]

Well these kinds of threads are always fun. So in terms of picks I understand we have (and I am sure someone will correct me):

• North Melbourne 2nd round priority pick (Guessing range would be 19-22)
• North Melbourne 3rd round priority pick (37-41)
• Carlton 3rd Round priority pick (50ish)
• North Melbourne 4th round priority pick (50ish)

So because everyone is so unconsciously biased towards WA products, let's try and take a broader perspective lets name an initial potential player for each both from WA and from somewhere else:

North Melbourne 2nd Round Priority Pick

• Non-West Australian option: Colby McKercher (Tasmania) - 181cm Wingman, traits: burst pace, hard running, high possessions. Downsides: gets caught doing too much sometimes, small, might not last till this pick.
• West-Australian option: Riley Hardemann (Swan Districts) - 185cm Wingman, traits: hard running, good disposal, decent possession numbers, played a senior WAFL game already numbers: Downside: only medium sized category, does he have the top pace?

North Melbourne 3rd Round Priority Pick

• Non-West Australian option: Sam Frangalas (Dandenong) - 187cm midfielder/forward, traits: Long kick, explosive, good size downsides: sometimes a bit wayward, not big possession getter, not really stamped himself as a pick me yet.
• West Australian option: Lance Collard (Subiaco) - 188cm forward traits: kicked bags of goals at WAFL colts, "bag of tricks" player, explosive, pressure at ground level downsides: wafer thin and light weight, unlikely to be a midfielder

Carlton 3rd Round priority pick

• Non-West Australian option: Billy Wilson (Dandenong) - 182cm HBF, traits: good kick and link man, speed and run, gets decent numbers downsides: small defender - do we need another?
• West Australian option: Sam Van Rooyen (Claremont) - 193cm Forward, traits: good kick, endurance and marking, possibly some flexibility in position, runs on the board in the goal kicking area downsides: probably too small for a key forward at afl level (more high third forward / half forward flank), speed off the mark.

North Melbourne 3rd Round pick

• Non-West Australian option: Ben Ridgeway (Glenelg) - 181cm midfielder, traits: captain/leadership material, speed, hard working inside midfielder good on the spread, downsides: small, kicking under pressure, nothing totally outstanding shown yet.
• West Australian Option: Aiden O'Driscoll (Perth) - 177cm midfielder: pace to burn, decent possession numbers at WAFL colts. downsides: very small player, not outstanding possession numbers.

Hardeman's the guy I want at our first, think he slots in perfectly and could be an elite wingman by the time he has the tank to run out an AFL game

Love the Frangalas shout, he's going to be great

Koen Sanchez as a crafty and explosive small forward could be available anywhere between our 2nd and North's 3rd. Ryley Sanders from Tasmania is a personal favourite and could be a great plug and play midfielder at North's 2nd.

 

[Docker82]

It’s possibly to get one talented player I reckon, we could even bundle pick 21 and pick 39 together to get up to pick 17 or so and back into the end of the first round

Why are people so negative about late picks?

The fail rate is nowhere near 100%. The chances of pick 39 playing games for the club would be higher than 50/50 I would've thought.

I'd do your suggested trade on draft night if there was a player available we really wanted/needed. No way I do the trade earlier when you have no idea what slips through. Pick 17 isn't that much before pick 21 - in a lot of cases we'd end drafting the same player anyway.

 

[Taylor]

The fail rate is nowhere near 100%. The chances of pick 39 playing games for the club would be higher than 50/50 I would've thought.

Let's take a look for Fremantle.

2022 - Emmett, Max Knobel, Corey Wagner - 2 games out of a possible 8
2021 - Benning - 0 games
2020 - Walker, Western - 40 games so far
2019 - Frederick - 45 games so far
2018 - Schultz, Bewley - 100 games so far
2017 - Dixon, Crowden, North, Meek, Switkoski, Jones - 117 games so far
2016 - Cox, Ryan - 207 games so far

 

[gungho]

Let's take a look for Fremantle.

2022 - Emmett, Max Knobel, Corey Wagner - 2 games out of a possible 8
2021 - Benning - 0 games
2020 - Walker, Western - 40 games so far
2019 - Frederick - 45 games so far
2018 - Schultz, Bewley - 100 games so far
2017 - Dixon, Crowden, North, Meek, Switkoski, Jones - 117 games so far
2016 - Cox, Ryan - 207 games so far

With the exception of 2016, where we absolutely hit it out of the park, what this says to me is that about 1 in every 3 late round picks would be worthwhile. There is absolutely still some talent on the board, but having the nous to identify it is pretty tough. You are forgetting Sebit Kuek here, who I think has the best chance of playing 100 Afl games of all the late round picks in 2022.

 

[millsy]

Why are people so negative about late picks?

The fail rate is nowhere near 100%. The chances of pick 39 playing games for the club would be higher than 50/50 I would've thought.

I'd do your suggested trade on draft night if there was a player available we really wanted/needed. No way I do the trade earlier when you have no idea what slips through. Pick 17 isn't that much before pick 21 - in a lot of cases we'd end drafting the same player anyway.

The numbers I've got are a bit dated, but I think with a pick between 30 and 50 you have about the same chance (30%) of getting a 100 game player as you do a sub 10 game player.

Interestingly between picks 20 and 30 you don't get a much greater hit rate at long term players (100+ games), albeit you do miss a bit less.

Not sure if you've seen similar, but certainly supports your position.

 

[Taylor]

With the exception of 2016, where we absolutely hit it out of the park, what this says to me is that about 1 in every 3 late round picks would be worthwhile. There is absolutely still some talent on the board, but having the nous to identify it is pretty tough. You are forgetting Sebit Kuek here, who I think has the best chance of playing 100 Afl games of all the late round picks in 2022.

That list excludes all rookie selections.

 

[Scham]

Hardeman's the guy I want at our first, think he slots in perfectly and could be an elite wingman by the time he has the tank to run out an AFL game

Love the Frangalas shout, he's going to be great

Koen Sanchez as a crafty and explosive small forward could be available anywhere between our 2nd and North's 3rd. Ryley Sanders from Tasmania is a personal favourite and could be a great plug and play midfielder at North's 2nd.

Now that is exciting! Exactly what we're missing.

 

[Docker82]

The numbers I've got are a bit dated, but I think with a pick between 30 and 50 you have about the same chance (30%) of getting a 100 game player as you do a sub 10 game player.

Interestingly between picks 20 and 30 you don't get a much greater hit rate at long term players (100+ games), albeit you do miss a bit less.

Not sure if you've seen similar, but certainly supports your position.

I’d think our success rate is much higher than that in that range since 2016 tbh:

2016: Darcy, Cox
2017: Dixon
2018: Valente
2020: O’Driscoll
2022: Davies, Emmett, Knobel

Ignoring the 2022 players for obvious reasons I honestly think we’ve drafted three 150+ game players out of five.

Valente was destroyed by injuries before he got going. That can happen at any pick.

Dixon was a lazy **** who we probably never should’ve been drafted.

 

[Dale147]

PSA round 2: Lachy Teakle, Mitch Keene, Presley Campbell, Ashton Bryant, Will Evans, Draye Jury + more​

Jordan McArdleThe West Australian
Tue, 9 May 2023 11:11AM
Comments
Jordan McArdle

Mitch Keene in action for Aquinas College against Guildford Grammar. Credit: Tom Campbell

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Tom Campbell

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/Totalsportsphotography/Totalsportsphotography
Lachy Teakle was the hero as Hale School won a thrilling contest away to Wesley College by just four points on Saturday.
With Hale trailing by two with less than three minutes on the clock, Teakle kicked the match-winning goal with a classy snap around his body from close range to give his school a 2-0 start to the season.

Captain Ashton Bryant continued his red-hot form with 27 disposals and eight clearances, with 2024 draft prospect Otis Harvey (24, six clearances and a goal) also influential.
Harvey’s State 18s teammate Aiden O’Driscoll, the younger brother of Fremantle pair Emma and Nathan, fought hard in a losing cause for Wesley with a game-high 32 disposals, nine clearances and nine inside 50s.

“He was good, he was in our best players and he probably will be every game he plays,” Wesley coach Michael Broadbridge said.

Will Evans did the damage up forward with four majors, Kayle Gerreyn was excellent in the ruck with 36 hit-outs, four clearances and 17 possessions and fellow State 16s squad members Jake Boniwell and Taj Longmuir did their job down back.

“Gerreyn is really coming along and Will Evans played very well as a key forward and Boniwell played well down back,” Broadbridge said.
We tried Taj across half-back and he showed a bit. He’s only in Year 10.”

Aquinas College also made it two wins from as many starts, defeating Guildford Grammar by 78 points away from home with WA under-18s representative Presley Campbell and captain Mitch Keene having a massive impact.

Bailey Morgan and Deacon McGuire kicked three goals apiece for the second week in a row, with livewire Ben Parasiliti also chiming in with three.

Skipper Oliver Sills and Draye Jury were among Guildford’s best.

In the final game of the round, reigning champs Scotch College defeated Christ Church by 12 points in a low-scoring affair to go 2-0.

Oscar Dees and Sullivan Moody continue their strong start to the year for Scotch and son of a gun Bailey Banfield

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Bailey Banfield

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also found a fair bit of the footy.

Will Wildberger and captain Austin van der Struyf were the standouts for Christ Church.

 

[Scham]

Luker Kentfield back to Colts today. 2 goals, 17 hitouts

 

[Gussman]

Has anyone seen Aiden O'Driscoll play? Listed as 177cm on the WAFL website which limits his potential role at AFL to being a small forward that occasionally drifts through the midfield. If he has his brother's pace and goal sense that might not be an issue. Stats seem like he might be playing a HFF role.

 

[Dockeroo]

It sounds like Koltyn Tholstrup could slip to the early second round. Bastyy what kind of player is he?

 

[Ysaye]

Has anyone seen Aiden O'Driscoll play? Listed as 177cm on the WAFL website which limits his potential role at AFL to being a small forward that occasionally drifts through the midfield. If he has his brother's pace and goal sense that might not be an issue. Stats seem like he might be playing a HFF role.

Based on the naked eye he has very good pace and arguably better (more consistent) disposal than his brother. If he could have a late growth spurt and get up above 180cm that would be handy for him. With those games he has played I think he has played more midfield/wing, just hasn't stocked up on possessions, so that is an area to work on.

It sounds like Koltyn Tholstrup could slip to the early second round. Bastyy what kind of player is he?

Big bodied medium forward with burst speed who tackles strongly, can take a contested mark, very good skills and can kick a snap. Kicked big bags at Colts level last year; playing WAFL seniors this year. You can watch his Subiaco debut here to get a feel for his game style - see below. People have talked up his potential to play midfield but I have queries on that - it is probably never going to be anything more than for pinch-hitting purposes.

 

[DocT]

The numbers I've got are a bit dated, but I think with a pick between 30 and 50 you have about the same chance (30%) of getting a 100 game player as you do a sub 10 game player.

Interestingly between picks 20 and 30 you don't get a much greater hit rate at long term players (100+ games), albeit you do miss a bit less.

Not sure if you've seen similar, but certainly supports your position.

Hi Guys,
I'm late to the 'Value of Late Picks' discussion but here is helpful info:

Here are good links:

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Draft Picks and Trades Broken Down by Year - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Ur welcome.

 

[Scham]

Based on the naked eye he has very good pace and arguably better (more consistent) disposal than his brother. If he could have a late growth spurt and get up above 180cm that would be handy for him. With those games he has played I think he has played more midfield/wing, just hasn't stocked up on possessions, so that is an area to work on.

Big bodied medium forward with burst speed who tackles strongly, can take a contested mark, very good skills and can kick a snap. Kicked big bags at Colts level last year; playing WAFL seniors this year. You can watch his Subiaco debut here to get a feel for his game style - see below. People have talked up his potential to play midfield but I have queries on that - it is probably never going to be anything more than for pinch-hitting purposes.

If we were to get Tholstrup would he be competing with Sturt, Emmett or Banfield for a spot? Or all 3?

 

[mightymouse75]

If we were to get Tholstrup would he be competing with Sturt, Emmett or Banfield for a spot? Or all 3?

Nobody simply competes with Banfield

 

[Dockeroo]

Fox footy saying that Mitch Edwards is now entering top 5 calculations in the ND after this weekends games.
I know he’s a ruck forward but jeez a top 5 pick level talent to match a bid on would have been nice in this year of having no first rounder.

Worth watching GC suns too. If they finished 10th and had say, pick 10, I wonder could we trade them some second round picks to get that pick 10?

Eg we could swap out F2 for pick 32 and pick 38 this year with someone, then give the suns pick 21, 32 and 38 for pick 10.
We would basically be swapping 2 second round picks for a pick in this years top 10, while still retaining our F1 next season.
They are going to need A LOT of points.
I think if the suns finish too low and end up with pick 6 or lower, it won’t be possible IMO.

 

[Bastyy]

It sounds like Koltyn Tholstrup could slip to the early second round. Bastyy what kind of player is he?

As Ysaye mentioned, he's an explosive medium forward with high potential while still being an already capable player so he could play early in his first year. If he falls into the second round we would be getting REALLY good value. He'd absolutely be one of our most talented forwards

I don't see him dropping second round, I think he'll have a strong U18 champs, but it's nice to dream

 

[Alfonz]

Tholstrup would be my dream pick, but if he slides to 20ish like Johnson, then WC would be in the prime position to get him based on the current ladder.

 

[Dockeroo]

Tholstrup would be my dream pick, but if he slides to 20ish like Johnson, then WC would be in the prime position to get him based on the current ladder.

Yeah we’d have to trade up I reckon, unless north finish below WC