Preview 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Dr Tigris]

Enjoy it whilst you can as all these top 10’s, top 5’s etc will likely end up killing the Northern Academy benefits as they stand. If they just keeps rolling in the AFL will end up stepping in for equalisation purposes. It’s starting to smell like Sydney’s COLA did.

At some point getting top 10 picks every year will cause problems. Right now the AFL want success for the expansion teams. So they will probably keep the Academies rolling until premierships are won. Their problem is that in Qld and NSW the wrong teams win premierships . So the AFL will just keep trying to tilt the playing field and hope that it works .. one day.

A bit cynical, but the alternative is for the AFL to run Academies as well as the clubs do. And that would require expertise and a focus on actual performance. That is not something the AFL does.

 

[blaisee]

I think Cats will try trade back into the draft with one of the tigers later firsts if someone they like has fallen through. Similar to what they did with them for Holmes a few years ago. Gave up a future first to go get the guy they really wanted.

Cats do not have the capital to trade back in

 

[T4P]

At some point getting top 10 picks every year will cause problems. Right now the AFL want success for the expansion teams. So they will probably keep the Academies rolling until premierships are won. Their problem is that in Qld and NSW the wrong teams win premierships . So the AFL will just keep trying to tilt the playing field and hope that it works .. one day.

A bit cynical, but the alternative is for the AFL to run Academies as well as the clubs do. And that would require expertise and a focus on actual performance. That is not something the AFL does.

They should just bin the academies, it's a rort

 

[weltschmerz]

Cats do not have the capital to trade back in

When has that ever stopped them? I’m sure they have a future third they can trade to the Suns for something big

 

[blaisee]

When has that ever stopped them? I’m sure they have a future third they can trade to the Suns for something big

What is going to stop them is that there will be clubs with better draft picks competing for the same picks

 

[theGav56]

Poor kid. Why his parents would call him Jack……

Feck sounded too Scottish apparently.

 

[year of the cat]

What is going to stop them is that there will be clubs with better draft picks competing for the same picks

Our FF has currency. Will be enough for one of your 20’s picks.

 

[blaisee]

Our FF has currency. Will be enough for one of your 20’s picks.

no it will not

11 home games at the cattery, baily smith, cats will probs make a prelim again

Much prefer Essendon and Melbourne and Saints and Nth F1

 

[dean33]

I think Richmond would be better off turning 2-3 picks between 18-23 into F1s then spending them to trade 6 to 2.

If they can get 5-6 picks inside 20 this year and have at least 3 first rounders lined up next year that's a big win.

Nobody should be trading their F1 for those 18-23 Richmond picks. Very little upside. But we all know the offers will come.

Also, if they don't trade for 2 and North have to hold it, North might take Tauru anyway allowing a player to slide to 6 that wouldn't otherwise.

I think it depends if we rate FOS much higher than who we think we’d get at 6. If we don’t than we will keep 6. The ideal would be to get 2 while keeping 6 however that will depend on what north wants.

 

[BennyGan]

Cats do not have the capital to trade back in

A future first for a pick that's gonna be pushed out to mid to late 20s?
I would of thought that's more than enough

 

[THE_GUN]

A future first for a pick that's gonna be pushed out to mid to late 20s?
I would of thought that's more than enough

Very good chance it probably wont be with the teams wanting to trade into this draft
6-7 teams trying to trade into this draft and only 1-2 teams with picks they 'might trade out'

St Kilda , Melbourne , North , Essendon , West Coast , Gold Coast all having better Future 1st rounders to offer
I think the cats would need to add to the F1 to move up

 

[aussierulesrules]

A future first for a pick that's gonna be pushed out to mid to late 20s?
I would of thought that's more than enough

In some drafts, sure. But with all the likely compromise at the top of next years draft, and the fact that it’s extremely unlikely to have the depth of quality (in the “open draft”) that this one does, your F1 next year could easily be pushed back into the 20’s.

And all the evidence suggests that clubs right now would rate a pick in the 20’s in this years draft much higher than they rate a pick in the 20’s next year.

So they’ll look at your F1 as potentially being pick 22 or even worse next year, and that that is worth about pick 30 in this much deeper looking draft.

As such, to get your hands on one of Richmond’s picks, you’d almost certainly have to pay more than your F1. Especially with multiple other clubs potentially also trying to trade their F1’s for those same picks.

 

[year of the cat]

Very good chance it probably wont be with the teams wanting to trade into this draft
6-7 teams trying to trade into this draft and only 1-2 teams with picks they 'might trade out'

St Kilda , Melbourne , North , Essendon , West Coast , Gold Coast all having better Future 1st rounders to offer
I think the cats would need to add to the F1 to move up

I doubt most, if any, of those teams you’ve named will be prepared to offer a FF for a mid to late 20’s pick.

 

[THE_GUN]

I doubt most, if any, of those teams you’ve named will be prepared to offer a FF for a mid to late 20’s pick.

We shall see

Im extremely confident they will be lining up and we will have them in the que

 

[LB2Snake]

We shall see

Im extremely confident they will be lining up and we will have them in the que

I’m interested to see if this happens too. Clubs, especially one like North, would be crazy to be offering up a F1 for pick 20……unless we have a serious obsession with a bloke that’s drifted that far. So who knows.
Clubs are a bit savvier than that you would hope. A hell of a lot changes in 12 months with the order and form of players etc too. I have t sen one, but I’d be interested is seeing a projected top 20-30 from this time last year.
We will see though, you are right.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

no it will not

11 home games at the cattery, baily smith, cats will probs make a prelim again

Much prefer Essendon and Melbourne and Saints and Nth F1

Wouldn't bank on that. We missed the 8 2 years ago and have an ageing list.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

In some drafts, sure. But with all the likely compromise at the top of next years draft, and the fact that it’s extremely unlikely to have the depth of quality (in the “open draft”) that this one does, your F1 next year could easily be pushed back into the 20’s.

And all the evidence suggests that clubs right now would rate a pick in the 20’s in this years draft much higher than they rate a pick in the 20’s next year.

So they’ll look at your F1 as potentially being pick 22 or even worse next year, and that that is worth about pick 30 in this much deeper looking draft.

As such, to get your hands on one of Richmond’s picks, you’d almost certainly have to pay more than your F1. Especially with multiple other clubs potentially also trying to trade their F1’s for those same picks.

This narrative about next year's draft being that poor is vastly inaccurate.

 

[LB2Snake]

This narrative about next year's draft being that poor is vastly inaccurate.

When you look at some of the prospects it looks pretty good to me.
This time next year it’ll be talked up. It’s how the afl media rolls.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I doubt most, if any, of those teams you’ve named will be prepared to offer a FF for a mid to late 20’s pick.

Teams will be coming for 24 because it’s the first pick on night 2. It’s worth a premium every year because they’ve had 24 hours to review things and who’s left on the board.

 

[aussierulesrules]

This narrative about next year's draft being that poor is vastly inaccurate.

I didn’t say it was “poor”, but it doesn’t need to be, for pick 22 in that draft to be equivalent to about pick 30 in a draft as deep as this.

Wasn’t there only one from next year’s crop who made the AA team this year though?

 

[LB2Snake]

I didn’t say it was “poor”, but it doesn’t need to be, for pick 22 in that draft to be equivalent to about pick 30 in a draft as deep as this.

Wasn’t there only one from next year’s crop who made the AA team this year though?

How many from this years crop were in last year’s AA team as UA?

FOS was one, Levi Ashcroft and Sid Draper. I don’t think there were others. Not like there were 10 and this year was just a different batch.

I think there will be unreal players next year, just going by the videos being posted of them. I don’t wanna lose our F1 unless we are getting value for it. But I’m not Brady and we’ve gotta trust the process

 

[Rich01]

How many from this years crop were in last year’s AA team as UA?

FOS was one, Levi Ashcroft and Sid Draper. I don’t think there were others. Not like there were 10 and this year was just a different batch.

I think there will be unreal players next year, just going by the videos being posted of them. I don’t wanna lose our F1 unless we are getting value for it. But I’m not Brady and we’ve gotta trust the process

While I don’t follow the drafts close enough year on year to know what the upcoming crops look like, I do see the general flow.

This time last year the 2024 crop was seen as a good year. Clubs traded their future firsts to get into the 2023 draft. 12 months later it’s seen as a draft that clubs need to get into the top 30 at all costs, while the 2025 class is seen as weaker. Time will change that and the narrative will shift to the 25 class being at least average to good. Perhaps better.

The only difference I’ve noticed is that there are less better players in the top 20 players available in the open draft next year, at this stage. But there’s plenty of water to go under the bridge. And the top 5 will be strong as usual.

 

[LB2Snake]

While I don’t follow the drafts close enough year on year to know what the upcoming crops look like, I do see the general flow.

This time last year the 2024 crop was seen as a good year. Clubs traded their future firsts to get into the 2023 draft. 12 months later it’s seen as a draft that clubs need to get into the top 30 at all costs, while the 2025 class is seen as weaker. Time will change that and the narrative will shift to the 25 class being at least average to good. Perhaps better.

The only difference I’ve noticed is that there are less better players in the top 20 players available in the open draft next year, at this stage. But there’s plenty of water to go under the bridge. And the top 5 will be strong as usual.

Do you see the correlation through Tigers holding so many top 20 picks and the apparent resistance for clubs to trade out? You are the main club holding those “trade out” picks. Along with 2 others. It’s a large portion.
Has to be a factor. Less clubs to deal with and less possible machinations. Makes it very interesting.
I can only remember expansion clubs holding this many first 20 picks, could be wrong, but those clubs were never trading those picks.
It’s great, gunna be an interesting template for future drafts and if clubs do what tigers have done. Love that stuff

 

[Rich01]

I can only remember expansion clubs holding this many first 20 picks, could be wrong, but those clubs were never trading those picks.

Back then you couldn’t trade out future picks.

 

[pK75]

Teams will be coming for 24 because it’s the first pick on night 2. It’s worth a premium every year because they’ve had 24 hours to review things and who’s left on the board.

Still don’t see a bottom 6 team trade a F1 for what will be Pick 28. The suns traded pick 11 in the following years draft for 27 to draft Jeremy Sharp a few years ago, that was a compo pick and was fixed at 11 so no fear of having a bad season and potentially trading out a top 3 pick. Best you could hope for at pick 28 is one of the prelim finalists really liking someone who in their minds have slid a long way, Brisbane, Sydney, Port and Cats.