Preview 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

[THE_GUN]

Yeah I don’t think things are that black and white.
Next year’s draft looks ok so we trade out our pick 2 for bombres F1’s and change? There’s so many machinations that allow us to be involved in both. No side’s giving up pick 2 for what you’ve suggested.
We shuffle back a couple or we don’t. You don’t throw away the 2nd pick in any draft for a chance at something. We also need players now, gun players. Pick 2 gives us a serious possibility of that.

I really dont understand why you wouldnt do that

You are going to get cents in the dollar for a F1 and there are no decent trades available for pick #2
Rather than reach for a player like Tauru oe draft a mid that you really dont want to and rather trade out why not just say cool we have enough mids / talent on the list and lets just pick later this year perhaps 2-3 project talls and take 3 1st rounders next year

Just dont get the reason why its such a big deal to not trade out ?

 

[sydney_gws]

I really dont understand why you wouldnt do that

You are going to get cents in the dollar for a F1 and there are no decent trades available for pick #2
Rather than reach for a player like Tauru oe draft a mid that you really dont want to and rather trade out why not just say cool we have enough mids / talent on the list and lets just pick later this year perhaps 2-3 project talls and take 3 1st rounders next year

Just dont get the reason why its such a big deal to not trade out ?

I think GWS do 2,62 for 15,16,37. That is my guess. If I am correct, North dont think that is acceptable ( or near acceptable).

 

[perplexed]

Why ?

What would be the reason shy there is noy way that North dont do this
just makes so much sense

Coz Brady is not a strategic thinker.

 

[THE_GUN]

I think GWS do 2,62 for 15,16,37. That is my guess. If I am correct, North dont think that is acceptable ( or near acceptable).

To be perfectly honest im not too sure that is a great deal for GWS either

I think with 6 list spots to fill GWS are probably better off getting 3 picks inside 35 than 1 top 2 then the rest
this draft seems to be considered an even top 6/7 but the quality of the depth higher than normal between 8-40

I think if im a GWS supporter id rather stick with the 15 & 16

Not sure if there is any truth to what was mentioned last week that GWS knocked back the #3 for #15 & #16 from the eagles before the carlton trade was done

 

[LB2Snake]

I really dont understand why you wouldnt do that

You are going to get cents in the dollar for a F1 and there are no decent trades available for pick #2
Rather than reach for a player like Tauru oe draft a mid that you really dont want to and rather trade out why not just say cool we have enough mids / talent on the list and lets just pick later this year perhaps 2-3 project talls and take 3 1st rounders next year

Just dont get the reason why its such a big deal to not trade out ?

We’ve been in a shocking holding pattern for too long mate….we need to improve and start getting better next year. Maybe not with wins, but percentage and overall improvement. We need players IMO, can’t afford to wait longer.

 

[Mutineer]

next year is supposedly better for key positions than this year

It is?
Must be exceptional if that's the case because there's plenty to like about the talls in this draft apart perhaps the ruck depth.

 

[dylan93]

Can someone paste the Chris Kavanagh phantom draft please and thanks?

 

[BennyGan]

It is?
Must be exceptional if that's the case because there's plenty to like about the talls in this draft apart perhaps the ruck depth.

Consensus is pretty low on this years keys. The key defenders are all undersized and were pretty inconsistent. I like Jobe Shanahan but I’m lower on the other key forwards. Most years there’s usually a few guys you can peg to go top 10 but this year it doesn’t look the case. Just comparing them to last season I have Walter, Caddy, O’Sullivan and Curtain all higher rated than any key position player in this draft.

 

[Dr Tigris]

They should just bin the academies, it's a rort

They made good sense to create a pipeline of talent in NSW and QLD when there just wasn't local talent. Now that pipeline has gone from a garden hose to a major gas pipeline it's looking silly.

However, the clubs do a much better job of running academies than the AFL does. Which means that killing them could do more damage than good.

Learning from the clubs and slowly replacing the clubs with high quality development AFL academies across Australia that are properly resourced would be best. So I expect that to happen ....

 

[Mutineer]

Consensus is pretty low on this years keys. The key defenders are all undersized and were pretty inconsistent. I like Jobe Shanahan but I’m lower on the other key forwards. Most years there’s usually a few guys you can peg to go top 10 but this year it doesn’t look the case. Just comparing them to last season I have Walter, Caddy, O’Sullivan and Curtain all higher rated than any key position player in this draft.

I disagree, I can see Tauru, Armstrong, Shannahan, Faull, Trainor, Gerryen, Mraz, Whitlock x 2, O'Farrell, Stumpf Nicholls, Sims, West, Barratt, Cole and Dennis all being a chance of being on an AFL list come 22nd November, any that miss out likely a chance in the MSD.

 

[Wild Bill]

This narrative about next year's draft being that poor is vastly inaccurate.

Extremely inaccurate!!

This time last year - Lalor & Tauru weren't 1st round draft picks and could go 1 & 2, Langford and Allen not in the top 30.

Its hard enough to judge a draft 2 weeks out let alone 12 months.

 

[LB2Snake]

I disagree, I can see Tauru, Armstrong, Shannahan, Faull, Trainor, Gerryen, Mraz, Whitlock x 2, O'Farrell, Stumpf Nicholls, Sims, West, Barratt, Cole and Dennis all being a chance of being on an AFL list come 22nd November, any that miss out likely a chance in the MSD.

All those guys will get taken, but quite a few much later on.....so not top 10.
Can read that 2 ways. That the mids are so unbelievable that it has pushed these KP players back, or that it's a pretty even draft without any real standout talls.

 

[GC2015]

They made good sense to create a pipeline of talent in NSW and QLD when there just wasn't local talent. Now that pipeline has gone from a garden hose to a major gas pipeline it's looking silly.

However, the clubs do a much better job of running academies than the AFL does. Which means that killing them could do more damage than good.

This is probably the main reason it won't change (at least for a while). The AFL had a great opportunity to remove northern academy access last year and instead re-introduced NGA access. That probably indicates that they want to protect the northern academies for now.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I would have thought this is clearly one of the best drafts for “talls” in years and years, and is a big part of the reason the clubs like the draft so much as it’s considered so deep.

It clearly doesn’t look to have “generational talent” types, but it looks to have loads who could very easily be AFL quality.

And there has been a big dearth of available tall talent on the open market in recent years, so clubs will be lining up to grab some in this draft.

 

[BennyGan]

I disagree, I can see Tauru, Armstrong, Shannahan, Faull, Trainor, Gerryen, Mraz, Whitlock x 2, O'Farrell, Stumpf Nicholls, Sims, West, Barratt, Cole and Dennis all being a chance of being on an AFL list come 22nd November, any that miss out likely a chance in the MSD.

All those guys are 100% getting drafted. There just isn’t the sure fire top end guys in the top 10 that most drafts have.

 

[BennyGan]

I would have thought this is clearly one of the best drafts for “talls” in years and years, and is a big part of the reason the clubs like the draft so much as it’s considered so deep.

It clearly doesn’t look to have “generational talent” types, but it looks to have loads who could very easily be AFL quality.

And there has been a big dearth of available tall talent on the open market in recent years, so clubs will be lining up to grab some in this draft.

I think there will be a couple guys taken outside the top 30 that could easily end up being awesome because there’s plenty of upside with some of these athletic talls but they are all quiet raw and could easily be out of the system in a couple years.

Which is why I have been lower of the key position guys. The top end safe keys are not there this year imo. But there’s plenty of talls that I see as projects or riskier later picks that could end up hitting.

 

[marcmurphy3]

All those guys are 100% getting drafted. There just isn’t the sure fire top end guys in the top 10 that most drafts have.

Thats true. That said, as far as KPP there is really no such thing as sure fire. Even when drafted top 10 it's 50 / 50. You'd almost rather there be decent talls in the teens and twenties then top 10. That way at least when you're gambling, the stakes aren't as high.

If you go back, it's pretty horrific. This is top 10 talls from 2010-2019 so includes players who have played at least 5 seasons. I have based the ratings on their relative draft position and whether they have justified it. Doesn't even include 2020 where Grainger-Barrass, Reid and to a lesser extent Thilthorpe are all looking shaky.

2019 - Jackson (Pass), McAsey (Epic Fail) (Ratings could still change)
2018 - Lukocious (Fail), King (Pass), King (Pass) (Ratings could still change)
2017 - Naughton (Pass)
2016 - Logue (Borderline)
2015 - Weitering (Pass), Schache (Epic Fail), Francis (Fail), Weideman (Fail), McKay (Pass)
2014 - Marchbank (Fail), Wright (Fail)
2013 - Boyd (Fail)
2012 - None
2011 - Patton (Fail)
2010 - Day (Fail), Gorringe (Fail)

 

[TylerDurden]

It's all fantasy until Twomey drops his phantom

Is that on Wednesday?

 

[Mutineer]

Thats true. That said, as far as KPP there is really no such thing as sure fire. Even when drafted top 10 it's 50 / 50. You'd almost rather there be decent talls in the teens and twenties then top 10. That way at least when you're gambling, the stakes aren't as high.

If you go back, it's pretty horrific. This is top 10 talls from 2010-2019 so includes players who have played at least 5 seasons. I have based the ratings on their relative draft position and whether they have justified it. Doesn't even include 2020 where Grainger-Barrass, Reid and to a lesser extent Thilthorpe are all looking shaky.

2019 - Jackson (Pass), McAsey (Epic Fail) (Ratings could still change)
2018 - Lukocious (Fail), King (Pass), King (Pass) (Ratings could still change)
2017 - Naughton (Pass)
2016 - Logue (Borderline)
2015 - Weitering (Pass), Schache (Epic Fail), Francis (Fail), Weideman (Fail), McKay (Pass)
2014 - Marchbank (Fail), Wright (Fail)
2013 - Boyd (Fail)
2012 - None
2011 - Patton (Fail)
2010 - Day (Fail), Gorringe (Fail)

Thilthorpe looking shaky?

Shoulda gone to SpecSavers...

 

[Mofra]

It is?
Must be exceptional if that's the case because there's plenty to like about the talls in this draft apart perhaps the ruck depth.

Yeah - and it's always dangerous to call a draft a year out. This draft is good for top 10 mids but it's the talls and flankers that have really improved as this year wore on, moreso than the mids.

 

[Mutineer]

Yeah - and it's always dangerous to call a draft a year out. This draft is good for top 10 mids but it's the talls and flankers that have really improved as this year wore on, moreso than the mids.

Absolutely.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Thilthorpe looking shaky?

Shoulda gone to SpecSavers...

Still a long way to go to justify the pick 2 spend. Still hasn't had a 20-goal season. JUH and McDonald both gone 30+ twice. No guarantee he comes on but that doesn't mean he won't.

 

[T4P]

They made good sense to create a pipeline of talent in NSW and QLD when there just wasn't local talent. Now that pipeline has gone from a garden hose to a major gas pipeline it's looking silly.

However, the clubs do a much better job of running academies than the AFL does. Which means that killing them could do more damage than good.

Learning from the clubs and slowly replacing the clubs with high quality development AFL academies across Australia that are properly resourced would be best. So I expect that to happen ....
View attachment 2162594

But they never invested in actually creating a pipeline, so it effectively was just a 'dibs' pathway.

 

[Mutineer]

Still a long way to go to justify the pick 2 spend. Still hasn't had a 20-goal season. No guarantee he comes on but that doesn't mean he won't.

Fair suck of the sauce bottle...He only played 7 games this year having torn his lateral meniscus in a preseason game against the Weagles, kicked 15 goals on return in round 18 which equals 2.1/game, translate that across 24 games that's 48 goals. Ugle-Hagan kicked 43 @ 1.9/game.

 

[T4P]

Fair suck of the sauce bottle...He only played 7 games this year having torn his lateral meniscus in a preseason game against the Weagles, kicked 15 goals on return in round 18 which equals 2.1/game, translate that across 24 games that's 48 goals. Ugle-Hagan kicked 43 @ 1.9/game.

injuries often derail KPF careers, so exposed form aside which isnt shaky, it isn't too much of a stretch to call whether or not he will make it as shaky.