List Mgmt. 2024 AFL Draft - November 20-21 (Picks 13, 29, 36, 50, 94, 112, 130)

[Ford Fairlane]

Thanks to Lore for this great resource

 

[240volt]

For me trading in Richards and then using our first pick for Berry makes zero sense.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

I don't totally agree with the statement that he's a ball winner in the centre bounce. He's someone who gets a lot of the ball because of his running patterns, speed and ability to put space between himself and direct opponent.

For me, Hotton was an early contender for our pick 13. But since then I've gone back to a lot of vision and given Hotton only played 3 games at CTL (which I admit were statistically top notch), I would've liked to have seen more of him. Maybe I'm just more risk averse with this pick.

So respectfully, this is an argument that we'll have to park aside because we have differing opinions on the player in question

Before his injury, Hotton played against Oakley and got 32 possessions, 10 marks, 5 tackles, 5 inside 50s and 4 goals and then the next week against Eastern and got 26 possessions, 4 marks, 5 inside 50s and a goal.

He can definitely get his own ball.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

For me trading in Richards and then using our first pick for Berry makes zero sense.

Unless he's the Second Coming of Zak Butters.

 

[Addy23]

Before his injury, Hotton played against Oakley and got 32 possessions, 10 marks, 5 tackles, 5 inside 50s and 4 goals and then the next week against Eastern and got 26 possessions, 4 marks, 5 inside 50s and a goal.

He can definitely get his own ball.

My point more so is that he's not a contested ball winner. He's the type to use his pace, evade from tackles and get on lead. If the ball is loose in space I'd 100% back him to win it. If he attends the centre bounce, not so much.

Obviously everyone can have their opinion and have a different reason as to why we select Hotton and I'm not opposed to his selection. But if we pick him then we'll need to push SPP into the centre more. SPP's ball use isn't great but if we pick Hotton then that's the other option we have

 

[Addy23]

Herald Sun reporting that Draper to Carlton is firming up as a real pick now. Goes on to say Crows would then take Langford, leaving FOS and Jagga for Melbourne.

Richmond may well end up with Lalor and FOS/Jagga without having to do a trade with North. Carlton's pick will have huge repercussions for the remaining order.

Also says Saints are looking to split 8 for GWS' picks albeit doesn't specify which ones. It's interesting cause I heard a rumour last week that Saints were looking at 15 and 16 to get the Whitlock twins. Obviously taking it with a lot of salt but an interesting take.

If the above were true, I'd be even more keen to slide back a few spots while moving up pick 29 which seems to be the second real drop off point in the draft. But could also mean that someone like a Reid or Shanahan is at our pick 13 as well. Until that's clear I wouldn't be making trades.

 

[Acemanjam]

Herald Sun reporting that Draper to Carlton is firming up as a real pick now. Goes on to say Crows would then take Langford, leaving FOS and Jagga for Melbourne.

Richmond may well end up with Lalor and FOS/Jagga without having to do a trade with North. Carlton's pick will have huge repercussions for the remaining order.

Also says Saints are looking to split 8 for GWS' picks albeit doesn't specify which ones. It's interesting cause I heard a rumour last week that Saints were looking at 15 and 16 to get the Whitlock twins. Obviously taking it with a lot of salt but an interesting take.

If the above were true, I'd be even more keen to slide back a few spots while moving up pick 29 which seems to be the second real drop off point in the draft. But could also mean that someone like a Reid or Shanahan is at our pick 13 as well. Until that's clear I wouldn't be making trades.

Having the Crows passing on both Smith and FOS would be crazy, they must really rate Langford if that's how it plays out.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

Im starting to warm to the idea of Murphy Reid, kid has alot of talent and 1v1 tricks

Sent from my PHN110 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Pants off if he slides to us and we select him

 

[Addy23]

Having the Crows passing on both Smith and FOS would be crazy, they must really rate Langford if that's how it plays out.

I thought this was interesting too. I guess HS have more Intel than I do but that's certainly not the why I'd be going if I were the Crows

 

[Addy23]

Pants off if he slides to us and we select him

Don't even tempt me

 

[Port2Power]

If he's averaging 24 disposals and a goal without running capacity then Gee whiz the potential is staggering. But good you haven't watched all his games and are relying on his manager who also said that he's worked super hard this year and improved his endurance massively with private training sessions. That's the sort of drive and work ethic that recruiters look for

Berry improved on his running capacity and skill the season before his U18 comp. It was reported that he trained with Joe Richards during the off season. Work ethic and drive DOES NOT differentiate Hynes with other draftees such as Berry especially in a strong draft.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

 

[shewho]

For me trading in Richards and then using our first pick for Berry makes zero sense.

Makes a lot of sense. DBJ as a forward is a blue collar stop gap. While he made a fist of it in 2024 he is not quick enough or dangerous enough to play small forward. Goals are not his specialty.

The only small forward we have (including Richards) who has a demonstrated love for goals/a natural goal sense, is a 30 year old Rioli. Richards/SPP/DBJ are midfielder/midfielder/defender turned forward. If we picked Berry, immediately our 4 best small forwards would be Rioli, SPP, Richards and Berry.

AFL is a copy cat league and recent premiership teams have been blessed with forwards who love goals and got a bag on the big stage- Fritsch in 2021 (Pickett as sidekick), Stengle in 2022 (with Close and Miers as sidekicks), Bobby Hill in 2023 (Elliot as sidekick), Lohmann, AhChee this year (Cameron as sidekick). We have no one other than Rioli able to kick 4 goals on GF day. And look at Hawthorn.

Also, our best clearance player in 2024 was JHF who only 54% of CBAs because we needed a dynamic small forward- never again.

While we also need a classy key defender, the hit/miss ratio with these guys in the first round is scary bad.

 

[davesnothere]

Having the Crows passing on both Smith and FOS would be crazy, they must really rate Langford if that's how it plays out.

Plenty to like about Langford. I'd do over Smith but not sure about FOS?

Crows wouldn't have been expecting FOS to be there?

 

[rumoursofwinter]

I think there's about 8 realistic choices and I wouldn't care who we pick. Im mainly miffed we didn't get 21 in the Houston trade.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

My point more so is that he's not a contested ball winner. He's the type to use his pace, evade from tackles and get on lead. If the ball is loose in space I'd 100% back him to win it. If he attends the centre bounce, not so much.

Obviously everyone can have their opinion and have a different reason as to why we select Hotton and I'm not opposed to his selection. But if we pick him then we'll need to push SPP into the centre more. SPP's ball use isn't great but if we pick Hotton then that's the other option we have

We must be watching different highlight packages because Hotton has an inside game as well and is good at centre bounces.

 

[Revan11]

Pants off if he slides to us and we select him

It’s a real possibility Reid slides to us and we have the choice of him and Hotton, who realistically should be our top targets in that range.

 

[Boak10]

Father-Son Rookie Listing
Father-Son players not nominated for the bidding system can be pre-selected prior to the Rookie Draft by that club if they have nominated for but not been selected at the National or Pre-Season Draft.

Essentially, Port don't need to nominate any Father Son.
Given our F/S are rookie propositions anyway, we will automatically add the ones we want to the rookie list following draft night (provided they don't receive any bids)

 

[PJ Power]

It’s a real possibility Reid slides to us and we have the choice of him and Hotton, who realistically should be our top targets in that range.

Yep. My preference of players who potentially could be available at pick 13 based on recent discussion:

1. Armstrong (realise very unlikely to be there)
2. Reid
3. Travaglia
4. Hotton
5. Trainor
6. Berry
7. Shannahan
8. Hynes

If the first three are off the table approaching our pick, I’d strongly explore turning 13 into two picks between 18 and 25, or turning 13 and 29 into two picks between 16 and 21.

 

[240volt]

Makes a lot of sense. DBJ as a forward is a blue collar stop gap. While he made a fist of it in 2024 he is not quick enough or dangerous enough to play small forward. Goals are not his specialty.

The only small forward we have (including Richards) who has a demonstrated love for goals/a natural goal sense, is a 30 year old Rioli. Richards/SPP/DBJ are midfielder/midfielder/defender turned forward. If we picked Berry, immediately our 4 best small forwards would be Rioli, SPP, Richards and Berry.

AFL is a copy cat league and recent premiership teams have been blessed with forwards who love goals and got a bag on the big stage- Fritsch in 2021 (Pickett as sidekick), Stengle in 2022 (with Close and Miers as sidekicks), Bobby Hill in 2023 (Elliot as sidekick), Lohmann, AhChee this year (Cameron as sidekick). We have no one other than Rioli able to kick 4 goals on GF day. And look at Hawthorn.

Also, our best clearance player in 2024 was JHF who only 54% of CBAs because we needed a dynamic small forward- never again.

While we also need a classy key defender, the hit/miss ratio with these guys in the first round is scary bad.

Richards was part of a deal where we lost a two time AA player.
We basically got pick 13 and Richards for Dan.
Dan was worth two first rounders or at the worst a first and high second.
You look at it that way we paid a premium for a small forward.
So it’s as dense as the Weddell sea to pay a premium again for the same type of player two months later.
The midget brigade had been shown to fail over and over again
We need big bodied guys who can stand up when things get tough.

 

[shewho]

Yep. My preference of players who potentially could be available at pick 13 based on recent discussion:

1. Armstrong (realise very unlikely to be there)
2. Reid
3. Travaglia
4. Hotton
5. Trainor
6. Berry
7. Shannahan
8. Hynes

If the first three are off the table approaching our pick, I’d strongly explore turning 13 into two picks between 18 and 25, or turning 13 and 29 into two picks between 16 and 21.

Like you, I don’t think it is realistic to trade up. Potential bedfellows for a trade down, based on current picks:

Richmond- would they do 18 and 20 for 13 and 29?
GWS- would they do 15 and 21 for 13 and 29?
Sydney- would they do 19 22 and 44 for 13 29 and 50?

But I think our best match is Western Bulldogs- 17 25 and 35 for 13 29 and 50. That leaves us with 17 25 35 and 36.

 

[shewho]

Richards was part of a deal where we lost a two time AA player.
We basically got pick 13 and Richards for Dan.
Dan was worth two first rounders or at the worst a first and high second.
You look at it that way we paid a premium for a small forward.
So it’s as dense as the Weddell sea to pay a premium again for the same type of player two months later.
The midget brigade had been shown to fail over and over again
We need big bodied guys who can stand up when things get tough.

You mean like 189cm Andrew Moore? 188cm Brendon Ah Chee? 188cm Aaron Young?

I thought I’d do an experiment and go to the 2015-19 drafts (so we can see the preliminary results) and see how big bodied mids (188cm +) did in the range 11-20:

2015- M.Kennedy (13) 188 cm
2016- J.Berry (17) 192 cm
2017- nil
2018- Hately (14) 189 cm; Collier-Dawkins (20) 192cm
2019- Day (13) 189cm; Cooper Stephens (16) 188cm; Kemp (17) 193 cm

That’s one hit (Day) and even then I would not class him as a contested beast.

Adding 2020-2023 with the same criteria you get players like Connor Stone, Finn Macrae, Max Holmes, Ed Allan, Josh Weddle. Whilst this group has time on its side still, the two best in this lot are yet to move into the centre square. What you don’t get after pick 10 is a Bontempelli, Petracca, Wines, Green, Cripps.

Point is- looking for a Wines replacement with pick 13 is likely looking for fool’s gold.

 

[Grave Danger]

Yet another Phantom Draft - a couple of names for us that haven't been mentioned before:

SEN's 2024 AFL full Phantom Draft

Draft expert Nathan Sepe makes his predictions for every selection in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Yet another Phantom Draft - a couple of names for us that haven't been mentioned before:

SEN's 2024 AFL full Phantom Draft

Draft expert Nathan Sepe makes his predictions for every selection in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

www.sen.com.au

Can you post the players selected for Port? For those that can't access SEN.

 

[davesnothere]

It’s a real possibility Reid slides to us and we have the choice of him and Hotton, who realistically should be our top targets in that range.

The knock on Reid is pace and if he slides that's the reason. We can't fix pace.

The knock on Hotton is the knee injury and he's 12 months behind the eight ball.

Personally I don't care about him not playing too much next year and if the knee is ok we've got a gun.


Reid vs Hotton I'm taking Hotton.

 

[davesnothere]

Yet another Phantom Draft - a couple of names for us that haven't been mentioned before:

SEN's 2024 AFL full Phantom Draft

Draft expert Nathan Sepe makes his predictions for every selection in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

www.sen.com.au

I want Floyd " Pink" Burmeister.