- Jan 7, 2010
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Is Rioli2Rioli going to change his name again; considering it would be classed as a turn-over?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
List Mgmt. 2024 Draft - The Final Countdown
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Blues want smith who crows want as well. Happy to take draper who is good mates with the twins
- Jan 7, 2010
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This is the toughest AFL draft to predict in years.
Richmond, Melbourne, St Kilda, GWS and Sydney dominate the first round with multiple picks each, while various scenarios could dramatically change how it all plays out.
If The Age’s predictions ring true, Sam Lalor, Alix Tauru and Jagga Smith will be the first three players selected in next week’s 2024 AFL draft.Credit:Steve Kiprillis
Throw in pick swaps, bolters and sliders, and anything could happen on Wednesday night.
With all this in mind, we spoke to 13 recruiters and list managers to find out what might be about to happen, albeit with disclaimers at every selection in a wide-open draft.
1. Sam Lalor (Richmond)
GWV Rebels/Vic CountryMidfielder/forward, 188cm, 30/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23 disposals, 6.3 clearances, 6 inside 50s
The Age’s August top 30: 5 October top 30: 1 November top 40: 1
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
Sam Lalor is in contention to join Richmond as the No.1 draft pick.Credit
arrian TraynorThe kid being likened to Dustin Martin for his dual-position impact, toughness, power and skills remains the favourite to be this year’s top pick. Injuries significantly curbed Lalor this year, he needs to become a better runner, has never done a proper pre-season, and there is risk here – but the upside is tantalising.
If not: There are rival recruiters who think Finn O’Sullivan could go No.1, with Jagga Smith given some chance as well.
2. Alix Tauru (North Melbourne)
Gippsland Power/Vic CountryTall defender, 193cm, 16/11/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 14.5 disposals, 3.7 intercept marks, 7.3 intercept possessions
The Age’s August top 30: 19 October top 30: 3 November top 40: 3
Agility test: 8.196 seconds 20m sprint: 3 seconds 2km time trial: 6:36 minutes
Alix Tauru has emerged as a draft bolter in 2024 and could be picked up as early as the No.2 pick.Credit:via Getty Images
A fearless interceptor overflowing with athleticism and star quality, Tauru has been strongly linked to North’s top pick in recent months. He was little known in the pre-season, but is set to be a top-10 pick, even if the Roos pass on him. They would like to move down and still select Tauru, and Adelaide is their likeliest trade partner.
If not: O’Sullivan is the most popular alternative option here, while Sid Draper is another player the Roos like, or they could place a bid on Brisbane father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft – but they are not expected to.
3. Jagga Smith (Carlton)
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic MetroMidfielder, 182cm, 28/1/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 33.8 disposals, 13.9 contested possessions, 7.9 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 1 October top 30: 4 November top 40: 6
Agility test: 8.484 secs 20m sprint: 3.038 secs 2km time trial: 6:27 mins
Smith could hardly have done more this year, establishing himself as the best ball-winner in this draft class and wowing recruiters with his agility and sharp hands in congestion. Rival clubs think Smith will be the Blues’ pick – but it is a tight race. He kicked more goals late in the season after queries on how impactful he was with his touches.
If not: Carlton are blessed for choice, with O’Sullivan – who has also been linked to the Blues – Harvey Langford and Draper all high-quality alternative options.
4. Sid Draper (Adelaide)
South Adelaide/South AustraliaMidfielder, 182cm, 5/7/2006
SANFL seniors stats (avg): 22.2 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 6.2 tackles
The Age’s August top 30: 6 October top 30: 10 November top 40: 10
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
With Smith gone in this scenario, the Crows select the local product. Draper has been likened to Patrick Dangerfield and Jason Horne-Francis for his power, albeit without the same marking prowess. He is a dual under-18 All-Australian and overcame a delayed start due to a shin stress injury to finish strongly against the SANFL’s best senior footballers.
If not: Adelaide have done significant due diligence on Harvey Langford, who is the alternative to Draper here, while they would likely go for Smith if he is available.
5. Harvey Langford (Melbourne)
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic CountryMidfielder, 191cm, 15/3/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.9 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 11 October top 30: 5 November top 40: 5
Agility test: 8.642 secs 20m sprint: 3.24 secs 2km time trial: 6:24 mins
This would be a close call for the Demons, if it is Langford over O’Sullivan. The co-Larke medallist has arguably been the best-performed player this year as a tall, powerful onballer who is a force in attack, even drawing Marcus Bontempelli comparisons. Some recruiters believe Langford could make his AFL living purely as a forward, so impressive is he aerially.
If not: O’Sullivan could easily be the pick here, while Smith and Tauru would be in the frame, too, depending on what happens in front of Melbourne.
6. Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions match Richmond’s bid)
Sandringham Dragons/Vic MetroMidfielder, 179cm, 18/12/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 30.8 disposals, 5.3 clearances, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 2 October top 30: 2 November top 40: 2
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
There is uncertainty on where the Ashcroft bid comes, but Ashcroft is Brisbane-bound as a father-son selection regardless. He will join forces with his Norm Smith Medal-winning brother Will after their father Marcus played in three flags as a Lion. Ashcroft is ultra-professional, self-driven and a dual under-18 All-Australian.
If not: The Tigers extend Ashcroft’s wait and instead take their pick of whomever is left between O’Sullivan, Smith, Langford or Draper.
7. Josh Smillie (Richmond)
Eastern Ranges/Vic MetroMidfielder, 195cm, 17/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.5 disposals, 11.3 contested possessions, 4.8 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 4 October top 30: 8 November top 40: 7
Agility test: 8.391 secs 20m sprint: 3.09 secs 2km time trial: 6:38 mins
Smillie started the year as a No.1 pick contender, but did not reach the heights of some peers. He is huge by midfielder standards and likened to Patrick Cripps for that reason, plus his physicality. Tigers football bosses Blair Hartley and Tim Livingstone have a connection to Smillie’s junior club Park Orchards and are big fans.
If not: Richmond might find it too irresistible to pass on O’Sullivan or whomever other top-line midfielder slips through. They also like Bo Allan, but he may still there be at their next selection.
Finn O’Sullivan representing the AFL academy earlier this year.Credit:AFL Photos via Getty Images
8. Finn O’Sullivan (St Kilda)
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic MetroMidfielder, 182cm, 30/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 17.3 disposals, 5.3 inside 50s, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 3 October top 30: 7 November top 40: 4
Agility test: 8.14 secs 20m sprint: 2.99 secs 2km time trial: 6:28 mins
This would be an incredible result for the Saints. Like Lalor, O’Sullivan had an interrupted season with injuries, but he was outstanding in his bottom-age under-18 campaign last year and the best player at the under-16 championships in 2022. O’Sullivan is classy, an excellent runner and marks well for his size. Does he have the same drive as others?
If not: O’Sullivan is off the board – a huge possibility – and the Saints go for whomever is left between Langford, Smillie and Draper. Allan is another contender here.
9. Leo Lombard (Gold Coast match St Kilda’s bid)
GC Suns Academy/Allies
Midfielder, 179cm, 5/10/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 24.7 disposals, 13 contested possessions, 5.7 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 14 October top 30: 9 November top 40: 8
Agility test: 7.81 secs 20m sprint: 2.851 secs 2km time trial: 6:39 mins
The Saints are widely tipped to make a bid on Lombard, and might even do so at their previous selection. The Suns academy graduate shared the Larke Medal as the under-18 championships’ best player with Langford, and he is highly competitive and a beast in the clinches. Tested off the charts at the draft combine for speed and agility.
If not: St Kilda made this bid a pick earlier, or they completed a swap with Fremantle to slide back a few spots, where they could take Joe Berry or Xavier Lindsay instead. The Dockers would move up likely for Bo Allan.
- Sep 19, 2006
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If they do this, they would have a very good reason to believe Carlton are taking Jagga at 3 so they can essentially get in front of them to take him.
After all, if that happens it makes no difference to us as jagga is incredibly unlikely. Won’t make it past pick 5 it seems as the latest mail.
Looks like Lalor and Smillie locked
- Jan 7, 2010
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10. Tobie Travaglia (St Kilda)
Bendigo Pioneers/Vic CountryDefender/midfielder, 187cm, 26/10/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23.6 disposals, 11.6 contested possessions, 6.4 tackles
The Age’s August top 30: 13 October top 30: 12 November top 40: 13
Agility test: 8.261 secs 20m sprint: 3.19 secs 2km time trial: 6:13 mins
Only Sydney academy prospect Joel Cochran ran a quicker 2km time trial at the combine than Travaglia, who interviewed well, brings positional versatility, was a big improver this year and hates being beaten. He could start at half-back but has the endurance to play on a wing, while there is hope he develops into an inside midfielder.
If not: As above, the Saints could make a pick swap to slide back, potentially with Fremantle, while Allan might be considered as well.
11. Harry Armstrong (Melbourne)
Sandringham Dragons/Vic MetroTall forward, 195cm, 14/6/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 9.9 disposals, 4.5 marks, 2.7 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 8 October top 30: 11 November top 40: 12
Agility test: 8.132 secs 20m sprint: 3.09 secs 2km time trial: 6:50 mins
The assumption is the Dees will grab a tall forward with their fourth first-round selection in the past two drafts, with Armstrong, Jobe Shanahan and Jack Whitlock in the mix. Likened to Jeremy Cameron, Armstrong is a good athlete with a mix of speed and endurance who works up the ground and is strong aerially, but his quiet nature is a talking point.
If not: Melbourne might opt for Shanahan or Whitlock instead, while there is also some noise about them taking Langford’s Stingrays teammate and best mate Cooper Hynes. Bo Allan is another potential option.
12. Isaac Kako (Essendon match Richmond’s bid)
Calder Cannons/Vic MetroForward, 176cm, 7/3/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 18.7 disposals, 1.7 goals, 7.7 score involvements
The Age’s August top 30: 12 October top 30: 6 November top 40: 9
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
St Kilda are not expected to make a double academy bid, so it might be the Tigers who force the Bombers’ hand. Essendon sent their in-demand No.9 selection to Melbourne during the trade period, at least in part because they feared the Demons would bid on their NGA prospect. Kako is powerful, can create a goal out of nowhere, and is an engaging personality.
If not: The Kako bid comes later, and the Tigers instead look at the likes of Allan, Berry, Lindsay, Shanahan and Whitlock.
13. Bo Allan (Richmond)
Peel Thunder/Western Australia
Defender/midfielder, 191cm, 16/2/2006
WAFL seniors stats (avg): 11.5 disposals, 3.9 contested possessions, 3.3 tackles
The Age’s August top 30: 9 October top 30: 19 November top 40: 15
Agility test: 7.94 secs 20m sprint: 2.99 secs 2km time trial: 6:37 mins
Allan’s superb testing results at the draft combine, plus his leadership skills, heightened his draft stocks after a season where he captained Western Australia and held his own at WAFL senior level. He can play across half-back or in the midfield. Allan’s kicking and decision-making need work, but the consensus is he will be gone before West Coast’s pick.
If not: The Tigers grab a tall forward instead, likely Shanahan or one of the Whitlock twins, while Berry and Lindsay are contenders, too.
14. Jobe Shanahan (Richmond)
Bendigo Pioneers/AlliesTall forward, 195cm, 2/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 12.9 disposals, 8.5 contested possessions, 2.1 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 21 October top 30: 17 November top 40: 14
Agility test: 8.77 secs 20m sprint: 3.1 secs 2km time trial: 6:39 mins
The Tigers’ hunt for Jack Riewoldt’s successor leads them to Shanahan, who kicked goals at every level he played this year. He is a strong runner, an excellent field and set-shot kick, presents in the right areas, is a smart judge of aerial balls and makes good decisions. Shanahan can play down back, too, which only adds to his appeal.
If not: Richmond might go for Jack or Matt Whitlock, the latter of whom can also play at both ends and is a late riser for many clubs as the draft approaches.
It’s expected Gippsland product Xavier Lindsay will be picked up i the first round of the AFL draft.Credit:AFL Photos via Getty Images
15. Xavier Lindsay (West Coast)
Gippsland Power/Vic CountryMidfielder, 183cm, 3/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23.4 disposals, 5.4 clearances, 5.2 inside 50s
The Age’s August top 30: 10 October top 30: 13 November top 40: 11
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
Lindsay has lots of fans, with his ball-winning talents, ability to play an outside or inside midfield role, laser-like left-foot kicking and leadership all part of his package. The Victorian likely starts – and may remain – as a winger and is not considered a “flight risk” for interstate clubs, so the Eagles may take him as the best available player.
If not: West Coast may opt for hard-running Berry here, or could go for one of the Whitlock twins to shore up their key-position stocks.
16. Jack Whitlock (Port Adelaide)
Jack Whitlock will be appealing to clubs looking for a key forward of the future.Credit:AFL Photos via Getty Images
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
Tall forward, 200cm, 16/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 16.4 disposals, 2.5 F50 marks, 2.1 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 22 October top 30: 22 November top 40: 16
Agility test: 8.912 secs 20m sprint: 3.1 secs 2km time trial: 6:39 mins
You can’t teach Whitlock’s size, and he is mobile, boasts good endurance, gets into dangerous spots inside 50, kicks goals from marks and at ground level, can serve as a relief ruckman and has upside. Whitlock is one of three key forwards rated in this draft range, but the order differs between clubs, so he could already be gone.
If not: Whitlock might be unavailable, or the Power might opt for his twin Matt instead as someone who can play at both ends. Berry would be tough to pass up as well.
17. Joe Berry (Fremantle)
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
Forward, 181cm, 18/4/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 14.4 disposals, 1.9 goals, 6.7 score involvements
The Age’s August top 30: 16 October top 30: 15 November top 40: 17
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
Recruiters believe Berry’s draft range starts with the Tigers’ third pick, and he has no shortage of admirers. He is quick, agile, runs hard all game and impacts the scoreboard regularly. He projects as a high half-forward who can also fill a wing role, with the potential to provide some centre-bounce burst as well.
If not: The Dockers may consider trading up for St Kilda’s second top-10 selection, where they would have a stack of good options, including West Australian prospect Allan. If Berry is gone, someone like Lindsay could be here, and Taj Hotton is another option.
18. Taj Hotton (GWS Giants)
Sandringham DragonsMidfielder/forward, 182cm, 17/6/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 28.7 disposals, 7.3 marks, 1.7 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 15 October top 30: 16 November top 40: 18
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
With back-to-back picks and three in the first round, the Giants can afford to take a risk on a player Hotton’s Haileybury College coach Matthew Lloyd rates as a top-five talent. The catch? Hotton’s blistering opening to the season ended in May when he ruptured the ACL in his right knee. No one started the year better, and he is a dual-position player with great athleticism.
If not: Hotton might already be snapped up, and the Giants might grab someone such as Jasper Alger, Matt Whitlock, Jonty Faull or Ollie Hannaford here.
19. Matt Whitlock (GWS Giants)
Matt Whitlock is considered more athletic than his twin brother, Jack.Credit:AFL Photos via Getty Images
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
Tall forward/defender, 198cm, 16/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 14.2 disposals, 5 marks, 1.9 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 29 October top 30: 26 November top 40: 26
Agility test: 8.545 secs 20m sprint: 3.05 secs 2km time trial: N/A
There is always a player who rises as the draft approaches, and this year that might be the second Whitlock twin, who several recruiters believe is the more athletic of the two. He tested well at the combine, is equally good up forward or down back, and there are scouts who view him in the 10 best players in this class.
If not: The Giants beat to their own drum, and it works for them. Another tall option they like is key forward Jonty Faull, while Harry Oliver – as a replacement for Isaac Cumming and Harry Perryman – Jasper Alger, Ollie Hannaford and Jesse Dattoli could be in the frame as well.
20. Murphy Reid (Western Bulldogs)
Sandringham Dragons/Vic MetroMidfielder/forward, 181cm, 30/7/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.1 disposals, 10.3 contested possessions, 4.1 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 17 October top 30: 18 November top 40: 20
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
Will Reid be a midfielder-forward, or vice versa at AFL level? That is the million-dollar question, given recruiters need to project what a player will become and not just how they performed at junior level. Reid’s shorter stature, and lack of speed and physicality make some doubt his midfield bona fides, but he is as clever in congestion as anyone in this class.
If not: The Dogs have a bevy of young and developing key-position players, so it is unlikely they add to that collection. Dattoli and Hannaford are other genuine contenders here for a club looking to restock its midfield depth. This might be too early for Tom Gross or Christian Moraes.
21. Jesse Dattoli (Richmond)
Northern Knights/Vic Metro
Midfielder/forward, 179cm, 7/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23.1 disposals, 11 contested possessions, 1.7 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 23 October top 30: 25 November top 40: 23
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
There is a confidence and drive in Dattoli that recruiters love. He is not as physically imposing or gifted as others, but recruiters believe his competitiveness could take him a long way at AFL level. Dattoli can play in the midfield and up forward, is tough and powerful, a good stoppage player, and marks the ball well overhead.
If not: Alger is a red-hot chance to go here, while Faull could be a target if the Tigers don’t opt for a tall forward at one of their earlier picks. There is also a chance Matt Whitlock is available. Hannaford could be in Richmond’s mix, too.
22. Sam Marshall (Brisbane Lions match Sydney’s bid)
Sandringham Dragons/Allies/Brisbane Lions AcademyMidfielder, 185cm, 19/1/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23.1 disposals, 5.9 contested possessions, 6.5 score involvements
The Age’s August top 30: 28 October top 30: 21 November top 40: 22
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
The hot tip is the Swans will place a bid on the Lions’ academy prospect, who runs all day and finished the season well, including receiving best-on-ground honours in Sandringham’s third-straight Talent League premiership. Brisbane does not really need another midfielder, but Marshall will provide quality depth.
If not: Sydney may wait until their next pick to place a bid.
23. Jonty Faull (Sydney)
GWV Rebels/Vic CountryTall forward, 195cm, 1/2/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 13 disposals, 2.5 goals, 6.7 score involvements
The Age’s August top 30: 26 October top 30: 23 November top 40: 25
Agility test: 8.34 secs 20m sprint: 3.12 secs 2km time trial: 6:53 mins
Faull is in the top 20 on some clubs’ boards, and his combativeness would be a point of difference in a Swans attack that let them down in the grand final. He does not have the height of the Whitlocks and is not lightning quick, but he is competitive, aggressive, has no problem taking contested marks and has a booming kick.
If not: The Swans might opt for a different forward type, such as Hannaford, Alger or Hynes, who bring different strengths to the table. Oliver could be an option here as well, while Noah Mraz could come into contention if Matt Whitlock is unavailable.
24. Harrison Oliver (Richmond)
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Defender, 181cm, 15/6/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 15.4 disposals, 5.5 intercept possessions, 2.2 tackles
The Age’s August top 30: 25 October top 30: 29 November top 40: 36
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
The Tigers might need to grab Oliver here to get ahead of the Giants. The belief in recruiting circles is the hard-edged Oliver would be an ideal “glue man” for a rebuilding club and is a safe-as-houses selection. He is the best small defender in the draft, was an All-Australian, is a good kick and offers a good mix of attack and defence.
If not: Richmond might go for Hannaford, Alger or Hynes instead. It is unlikely they would take Alex Dodson here, given the Giants and Swans don’t need a ruckman.
25. Jasper Alger (GWS Giants)
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic CountryForward, 183cm, 17/12/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 10.8 disposals, 2.7 tackles, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: N/A October top 30: N/A November top 40: 24
Agility test: 8.141 secs 20m sprint: 2.931 secs 2km time trial: 6:28 mins
Alger, who is likened to Melbourne’s Bayley Fritsch without being an exact replica, is a draft bolter who tested well and excites recruiters with what he could become in the AFL. He is fast, strong aerially for his height and in one-on-one situations, makes quick and smart decisions under pressure, and gets in dangerous spots.
If not: Alger may already be gone. Bash-and-crash forward Hannaford would be a good pick here, too, if he was available, while they might consider Oliver if he is still up for grabs.
26. Ollie Hannaford (Sydney)
GWV Rebels/Vic CountryForward, 180cm, 1/9/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 16.7 disposals, 9.5 contested possessions, 1.2 goals
The Age’s August top 30: N/A October top 30: 20 November top 40: 19
Agility test: 7.92 secs 20m sprint: 2.95 secs 2km time trial: 7:26 mins
There is a scenario where Hannaford is a top-20 selection on Wednesday night after an impressive end to the season after switching into attack. He started the year down back and can play in the midfield, too, but seems best suited as a forward. He is fast, super tough and ultra-competitive, and will be a first-round selection.
If not: Others potentially in this mix are Alger, Gross and Hynes, along with Oliver if he was available.
27. Alex Dodson (Richmond)
Sturt/South AustraliaRuckman, 201cm, 15/6/2006
SANFL U18 stats (avg): 20.8 disposals, 12 contested possessions, 7.4 hit-outs-to-advantage
The Age’s August top 30: 20 October top 30: 24 November top 40: 27
Agility test: 9.08 secs 20m sprint: 3.25 secs 2km time trial: 7:06 mins
The former NBL prospect-turned-best ruckman in this year’s AFL draft. There is always some mystery around where the first ruckman goes, but we saw two taken in the first round last year and Dodson could also sneak in on Wednesday night. He focused solely on basketball last year, so he should have plenty of development in him.
If not: The Tigers might look at Hynes instead, while Oliver could be available here as well.
And the rest…
The most notable omission from the first round is Sandringham Dragons intercept defender Luke Trainor, whose blistering start to the year had him in top-five contention.Trainor is this draft’s biggest slider and there is a good chance he makes it into the 30s or beyond now. Recruiters are concerned about his concussion history – although the AFL has medically cleared him – some other intangibles and him not proving himself as a lockdown defender. At some stage, Trainor’s talent will be too hard to pass up, but it is unclear where he will land.
Among the players linked to clubs in the second round are Cooper Hynes (Richmond, Port Adelaide, Fremantle), Tom Gross (Western Bulldogs, GWS), Christian Moraes (Port Adelaide), Angus Clarke (Fremantle) and Noah Mraz (GWS), while one of St Kilda or Sydney could place a bid on Carlton father-son prospect Ben Camporeale.
Key forward Thomas Sims could be an option for clubs in that range, including the Tigers, and St Kilda academy graduate Lennox Hofmann might attract a bid in the mid-30s. Speedster Rhys Unwin is linked to Brisbane and GWS. Collingwood would like to select a tall forward, and recruiters believe there is a chance promising South Australian Charlie Nicholls could be available in the 50s.
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