2024 Draft Thread.

[ScrappyDo]

Always been a massive avocate for top 5 picks and just wanted to revisit in more detail after Watson dominated in his first year tonight.

Study conducted from 2000-2021 (Pick/Ave Games up to 2010/Hit rate above ave player on ave games and expectation %)

Have some qualifications like impact over short career and auto ticked any player who won a flag but raw numbers are as follows;

Pick. 1 / 237 ave games / 68%
2. 196/73
3. 205/59
4. 136/50
5. 221/46
6. 93/18
7. 211/46
8. 113/27
9. 133/36

We are likely to end up with selections 8, 9 overall so this whole thing has not only wasted my time but severely dampened my spirirts at landing a superstar and i thought id at least try and share that misery with you all. x

Honestly, those stats are so full of holes it's hardly worth it. Raw data is useless unless filtered and normalised, and all too often used to misrepresent the truth.
A better measure would simply be annual salary which has all filters naturally applied

 

[70s sainter]

If it can provide comfort... this is the Hawthorn line up tonight, by pick number only: (* = traded in)

B: pick 56 / rookie* / pick 21*
HB: pick 44 / pick 18 / pick 74
C: MSD* / pick 67 / rookie cat b
HF: pick 68* / rookie* / rookie*
FF: pick 56 / pick 29* / pick 5
R: pick 69* / pick 45 / MSD
Int: pick 7* / pick 29 / pick 7 / pick 26
Sub: rookie

Watson pick 5, Scrimshaw pick 7 (traded in for a swap of 3rd & 4th rounders), Ward pick 7 (last man picked - did play well).

The rest pick 18 or later, plus a couple of mid season pickups.

They are all humans. Once they walk through the door, how & when they were picked quickly becomes irrelevant. (SOS if you are reading this ...)

Regardless of how the Hawks finish up, there are plenty of lessons to be learnt from their progress this year. IMO needing top 5 draft picks to land superstars is unlikely to be one of them.

That’s amazing really. Good recruiting and choosing players for similar attributes rather than just grabbing best available .all about a game plan which happens ti be working . Everyone at the club dancing to the same tune. Whether it lasts or not remains to be seen .

 

[goodie23]

So I'm gonna guess

Pick 1 - Richmond takes Finn O'Sullivan
Pick 2 - North does a pick split with Gold Coast. North get 6 and multiple sweeteners (depending on what survives trades), GC get 2 and some lower order picks to help with the Lombard bid. Could be one of those pre-arranged trades at the start of draft night. Gold Coast do an Ashcroft bid to piss off Brisbane, then go for Josh Smillie
Pick 3 - Gets traded to Richmond as part of the Baker deal. Richmond take Jagga Smith
Pick 4 - Adelaide play it safe and take local product Sid Draper
Pick 5 - Melbourne draft Harvey Langford
Pick 6 - North go tall and take Luke Trainor with an eye to getting Shanahan or a Whitlock later
St Kilda now choose between Murphy Reid, Sam Lalor and Tobie Travaglia with our one or two picks, but first I'd love a bid on Lombard because screw the northern academies.

There is also a scenario where West Coast decide pick 3 is too much to part with for Baker and we trade a first rounder alongside a 2024 or 2025 second rounder. We then pull the trigger on Smith or Langford.

 

[St Neil]

So I'm gonna guess

Pick 1 - Richmond takes Finn O'Sullivan
Pick 2 - North does a pick split with Gold Coast. North get 6 and multiple sweeteners (depending on what survives trades), GC get 2 and some lower order picks to help with the Lombard bid. Could be one of those pre-arranged trades at the start of draft night. Gold Coast do an Ashcroft bid to piss off Brisbane, then go for Josh Smillie
Pick 3 - Gets traded to Richmond as part of the Baker deal. Richmond take Jagga Smith
Pick 4 - Adelaide play it safe and take local product Sid Draper
Pick 5 - Melbourne draft Harvey Langford
Pick 6 - North go tall and take Luke Trainor with an eye to getting Shanahan or a Whitlock later
St Kilda now choose between Murphy Reid, Sam Lalor and Tobie Travaglia with our one or two picks, but first I'd love a bid on Lombard because screw the northern academies.

There is also a scenario where West Coast decide pick 3 is too much to part with for Baker and we trade a first rounder alongside a 2024 or 2025 second rounder. We then pull the trigger on Smith or Langford.

North are the key here. If their first pick is before our pick, but has been diluted, then it is very likely they take Trainor.

That means a premium mid slides. And we are then able to draft the final two who are left on the draft board.

 

[joydivision22]

Honestly, those stats are so full of holes it's hardly worth it. Raw data is useless unless filtered and normalised, and all too often used to misrepresent the truth.
A better measure would simply be annual salary which has all filters naturally applied

The games part was used to determine a rough benchmark for whether the player was a hit that year. Draft guru games ave for each pick is useless as it goes Lal the way back to 88 and all the way up to present day so best measure is from 2000-2010 (all retired).

The only holes in the percentages is just whether you would disagree on a player being a hit or not but they are pretty obvious.

Screenshot below of pick 8/9 with matches/hit rate, Would be interested to see how you squeeze annual salary in? Clearly a lot of unknowns and guesswork even if it would be a good measure.

 

[gubby88]

North are the key here. If their first pick is before our pick, but has been diluted, then it is very likely they take Trainor.

That means a premium mid slides. And we are then able to draft the final two who are left on the draft board.

would you trade, pick 7 and 8 for pick 2, their second round pick and curtis Taylor?

On SM-A156E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[joydivision22]

If it can provide comfort... this is the Hawthorn line up tonight, by pick number only: (* = traded in)

B: pick 56 / rookie* / pick 21*
HB: pick 44 / pick 18 / pick 74
C: MSD* / pick 67 / rookie cat b
HF: pick 68* / rookie* / rookie*
FF: pick 56 / pick 29* / pick 5
R: pick 69* / pick 45 / MSD
Int: pick 7* / pick 29 / pick 7 / pick 26
Sub: rookie

Watson pick 5, Scrimshaw pick 7 (traded in for a swap of 3rd & 4th rounders), Ward pick 7 (last man picked - did play well).

The rest pick 18 or later, plus a couple of mid season pickups.

They are all humans. Once they walk through the door, how & when they were picked quickly becomes irrelevant. (SOS if you are reading this ...)

Regardless of how the Hawks finish up, there are plenty of lessons to be learnt from their progress this year. IMO needing top 5 draft picks to land superstars is unlikely to be one of them.

It’s a really interesting analysis.

My study is more about the probability of finding the types of players we need. Newcombe from the MSD is just crazy lotto stuff as well as some of their rookie pickups.

As you say, a list build takes a fantastic recruiting team, a brave coaching group, great club culture with driven leaders etc. but if you ask me whether I want a top 5 pick or 6 rookie picks to find a star mid, it’s plain as day.

Their pick 5 was probably 2nd best on in his first season.

Anyway I think I agree with everything you say except that as part of the build, you need those super high end picks to hit.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

would you trade, pick 7 and 8 for pick 2, their second round pick and curtis Taylor?

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I don’t think I would given the evenness and arguably greater chance that (some) of the high picks aren’t ultimately better than some later picks, which happens anyway, but perhaps even more likely this year. Also the fact we don’t know who slips through. The North second rounder is quite a decent offset though. And I’d definitely leave out Taylor. 8 games this year and in and out for his career. You’d hope it’s pick 60+.

But it’s a good debate.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Another hypothetical. If Smilie and Langford happen to be on the board, would you take both, or look for a mix of types?

 

[joydivision22]

would you trade, pick 7 and 8 for pick 2, their second round pick and curtis Taylor?

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100% I would. Go from two 30% chances of a good average player to a 70% chance of a gun. Id probably still do it without anything coming back.

People might say this draft is different but I disagree, reckon there is a natural top 4 emerging with the 6-10 guys with more bust risk.

Top 4: FOS, Smith, Draper, Ashcroft

5-10: Langford, Lalor, Trainor, Lombard, Smilie, Reid

I probably wouldn’t do it for anything less than pick 3. FOS, Smith or Draper over two of the leftovers say Reid/Trainor.

 

[St Neil]

would you trade, pick 7 and 8 for pick 2, their second round pick and curtis Taylor?

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No. Take the two lads left at 7 & 8 (or whatever numbers those two picks are).

Add two important pieces to the midfield build.

I just think we should stick to the fundamentals of holding and using our early picks. We have a great opportunity this year.

Happy if we are creative with our later picks and with the lesser drafts.

 

[Minga]

If it can provide comfort... this is the Hawthorn line up tonight, by pick number only: (* = traded in)

B: pick 56 / rookie* / pick 21*
HB: pick 44 / pick 18 / pick 74
C: MSD* / pick 67 / rookie cat b
HF: pick 68* / rookie* / rookie*
FF: pick 56 / pick 29* / pick 5
R: pick 69* / pick 45 / MSD
Int: pick 7* / pick 29 / pick 7 / pick 26
Sub: rookie

Watson pick 5, Scrimshaw pick 7 (traded in for a swap of 3rd & 4th rounders), Ward pick 7 (last man picked - did play well).

The rest pick 18 or later, plus a couple of mid season pickups.

They are all humans. Once they walk through the door, how & when they were picked quickly becomes irrelevant. (SOS if you are reading this ...)

Regardless of how the Hawks finish up, there are plenty of lessons to be learnt from their progress this year. IMO needing top 5 draft picks to land superstars is unlikely to be one of them.

Unpopular opinion, I don’t think they’re any better than we were in 2020 frankly. Similar vibes with the lists too. We both beat the dogs in an elimination final.

We came up against dynasty Richmond in the semis, they are coming up against a flaccid port with dead walking coach. If they win that and put in a good showing in a prelim only then will I give them a modicum of ‘this is a team to take learnings from’.

Other than that, it’s impressive to overcome a 0-5 start, but they are fortunate that it is such an even and long year it was possible for teams like them and Brisbane to come back in the picture after disastrous starts.

Good drafting tho, players like Weddle and dear are nice finds. All power to them to continue forth towards success, but personally, I’m holding judgement for now.

 

[borderbarry]

Would'nt Dear have been a father/son pick?

 

[botts]

Would'nt Dear have been a father/son pick?

Yes he was

 

[ScrappyDo]

The games part was used to determine a rough benchmark for whether the player was a hit that year. Draft guru games ave for each pick is useless as it goes Lal the way back to 88 and all the way up to present day so best measure is from 2000-2010 (all retired).

The only holes in the percentages is just whether you would disagree on a player being a hit or not but they are pretty obvious.

Screenshot below of pick 8/9 with matches/hit rate, Would be interested to see how you squeeze annual salary in? Clearly a lot of unknowns and guesswork even if it would be a good measure.

View attachment 2103657

I think this kind of illustrates my point. Bartel and Heppell both categorised as wins but in reality are a long way apart.
Even a salary metric would fall over here as those two probably aren't far apart on earnings.
Even AA guernseys aren't reliable as you get an overrepresentation of mids.
All in all it's a bit depressing on face value but to determine a useful qualitative comparison requires multiple inputs and subjective loadings.
Sometimes the top talent pool is 2 deep, other times it's 7 or more.
At any rate, success depends more on attitude and club culture/development. Talent just gets you drafted.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Another hypothetical. If Smilie and Langford happen to be on the board, would you take both, or look for a mix of types?

90% you'd just have to take both.
It's one thing having a big bodied mid. It's another thing having 3 of the buggers.

 

[goodie23]

90% you'd just have to take both.
It's one thing having a big bodied mid. It's another thing having 3 of the buggers.

Especially since we went shopping for runners last year and did pretty damn well

 

[Michael Goodinski]

Of course.

But, in medicinal terms, this is like ingesting morphine for a paper cut.

You should really live dangerously and have a Monte Carlo.

If I do that, Cursing Fijian, I would indeed be running on the ragged edge of danger!

Monte Carlos are a "gateway biscuit" to stronger baked delights such as Tim Tams and the elusive Kingstons.

The Kava is the soothing "ying" to the raging "yang" of being a saints' supporter! Use Kava and your choice of biscuit responsibly!

 

[Diehard Saint]

would you trade, pick 7 and 8 for pick 2, their second round pick and curtis Taylor?

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No.
I’d like two bites of the cherry.
Imagine we actually get them both right!

 

[Joffaboy]

No.
I’d like two bites of the cherry.
Imagine we actually get them both right!

I would suggest we have got every first round right since 2017
2017 Clark
2018 King
2019, used on Hill Howard and Ryder
2020, Allison. A miss but he was pick 26
2021 NWM
2022 Pou
2023 Wilson
I would back us to get both right in 2024.

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[Diehard Saint]

I would suggest we have got every first round right since 2017
2017 Clark
2018 King
2019, used on Hill Howard and Ryder
2020, Allison. A miss but he was pick 26
2021 NWM
2022 Pou
2023 Wilson
I would back us to get both right in 2024.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

. That’s why I want both.
What it would do for the team would be enormous!
I do trust them to get them both right.
And if there is such an even top 10 why would you not want 2 instead of one?

 

[joydivision22]

I think this kind of illustrates my point. Bartel and Heppell both categorised as wins but in reality are a long way apart.
Even a salary metric would fall over here as those two probably aren't far apart on earnings.
Even AA guernseys aren't reliable as you get an overrepresentation of mids.
All in all it's a bit depressing on face value but to determine a useful qualitative comparison requires multiple inputs and subjective loadings.
Sometimes the top talent pool is 2 deep, other times it's 7 or more.
At any rate, success depends more on attitude and club culture/development. Talent just gets you drafted.

More inputs would be great sure but as you say they tend to over complicate it. This is a simple way to determine the chance of converting a draft pick against a basic benchmark of games played and my own judgement.

Salary metric, for example, brings in distraction and confusion imo. Market factors like free agency, club needs forcing overpaying etc would not help produce accurate outcomes.

I am determining whether or not it is a hit, not how much of a hit it was. Heppell is definetly a hit with double the ave games, becoming a captain of his club. Bartel obvs much more of a hit but that doesn’t matter to me for this study.

You can push and pull the benchmark with more inputs but ultimately it won’t adjust the difference between top 5 and the rest, only increase the differential I would submit.

100% agree with your last point. Except would add the guys in the top 5 are the ones with best attitude and the most talent, hence the higher conversion rate.

 

[ScrappyDo]

More inputs would be great sure but as you say they tend to over complicate it. This is a simple way to determine the chance of converting a draft pick against a basic benchmark of games played and my own judgement.

Salary metric, for example, brings in distraction and confusion imo. Market factors like free agency, club needs forcing overpaying etc would not help produce accurate outcomes.

I am determining whether or not it is a hit, not how much of a hit it was. Heppell is definetly a hit with double the ave games, becoming a captain of his club. Bartel obvs much more of a hit but that doesn’t matter to me for this study.

You can push and pull the benchmark with more inputs but ultimately it won’t adjust the difference between top 5 and the rest, only increase the differential I would submit.

100% agree with your last point. Except would add the guys in the top 5 are the ones with best attitude and the most talent, hence the higher conversion rate.

Yeah l didn't really mean to argue the top 5 pick success ratio as it's plain to see, and whoever said it's the qualities that get you drafted that tend to make you successful as a player.
I probably get triggered by board statements based on broad stats and tend to think it tells more of a story about the outliers than the average.
Either way, l think we're lucky for this to land in a deep draft with an ambiguous top order and the level of professionalism in the kids nowadays is out of sight from even 10 years ago.
It'd be interesting to see if there's an incline in the success rate through time, but it's too soon to have the data.

 

[gubby88]

had a chat with Scott Macdougal (talent scout of Gippy power and Vic Country) about Elwood Peckett today.

reckons he has the drive and talent to be a top tier mid, likens him to Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

, but more attacking

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[Tommy Wigs]

had a chat with Scott Macdougal (talent scout of Gippy power and Vic Country) about Elwood Peckett today.

reckons he has the drive and talent to be a top tier mid, likens him to Chad Warner, but more attacking

On SM-A156E using BigFooty.com mobile app