2024 Draft Thread.

[Tommy Wigs]

I was told by a source that is friends with his mum that Hotton was told 6 weeks ago he was on the chopping block.

Unless he drastically turned his form around he was done. Don't think he has.

His parents where pretty annoyed at the club from what I could gather. Not fans of Ross either. They wouldn't be wrapped to see their next son drafted to the Saints.

Has he been listed in the best? Hard to recall anything more than some encouraging games.

 

[Rogue Warrior]

From the above posts it would seem that 7/8 will get us two decent players, but 5/6 would have generated players that we would be delighted with.

For 7/8 to delight the majority will require a fair bit of luck of a player or two sliding a little. If teams below us fancy a tall in Trainor that may assist us to get "The Chosen Ones".

We really gotta hope Armstrong & Trainor have huge ends to the season and test through the roof at the combine.

 

[gringo2011]

They aren't without their positives

Both have shown they can impact on the ball and have power and burst from stoppage ... they can win inside ball and are solid decision makers

Both are good contested marks and can go forward and kick multiple goals

Gringo ... you don't rate Lalor's disposal but most pundits see no issues ... both are powerful kicks and have good technique

Big ??s are on consistency... Lalor has had to deal with some injury problems this year and Smillie has ?? on his work rate ... just looks to be cruising / doing just enough .... can they adapt to higher pressure and a faster game at senior level?

Lalor’s production is pretty low and his power seems to be his POD. If his disposal isn’t elite, his production low and his size will be minimised against men… I just don’t see it. His kicking makes players have to stop and go back for the ball. I like both Reid and Langford because you can see that they are thinking ahead of the next move. It’s a thing you can’t really learn.

Smilie was so average in the Champs. I just can’t get over it. It makes me question his desire. I take motivation over talent if it’s a coin toss.

 

[joydivision22]

Lalor’s production is pretty low and his power seems to be his POD. If his disposal isn’t elite, his production low and his size will be minimised against men… I just don’t see it. His kicking makes players have to stop and go back for the ball. I like both Reid and Langford because you can see that they are thinking ahead of the next move. It’s a thing you can’t really learn.

Smilie was so average in the Champs. I just can’t get over it. It makes me question his desire. I take motivation over talent if it’s a coin toss.

Sounds like we should trade up..?!

 

[austinnn]

I was told by a source that is friends with his mum that Hotton was told 6 weeks ago he was on the chopping block.

Unless he drastically turned his form around he was done. Don't think he has.

His parents where pretty annoyed at the club from what I could gather. Not fans of Ross either. They wouldn't be wrapped to see their next son drafted to the Saints.

Can't imagine why his family wouldn't be fans of Ross or the club

 

[joydivision22]

I probably rate that first tier less than you do. FOS is probablty the best of his draft but injury prone and a disappointing champs. I really like Jagga but he's little and not an absolutely certainty in the AFL due to size and his disposal and hurt factor aren't elite. Draper, Trainor, Langford, Reid etc are all going to go to preference rather than having much separating them. The next tier you could even see a few going earlier than expected. It's so even this year. The absolute top end stand outs aren't obvious as most years but it runs super deep

Just don't think anyone has separated themselves from the pack enough to be worth moving up. If you move up and get Draper and he's another Paddy Dow?

I agree at the moment it doesn’t seem like a big gap but there are less faults in the top tier and they’re all mids with one in particular (Draper) I think extremely suitable for us. You’ve outlined already yourself the ‘knocks’ on the second tier.

To answer your question, there is an approx. 27-35% chance a top 3 pick is a ‘Dow like’ bust, which is the best available odds. It is statistically better to have pick 2 than 7 & 8 plus the addition of pick two being a higher expected level of player.

For every 2.7 Dow’s you throw at me I’ll give you 7.3 Andrew Brayshaw, LDU, Kelly. All guys we’ve chased or been desperate to be in the hunt for.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

Lalor’s production is pretty low and his power seems to be his POD. If his disposal isn’t elite, his production low and his size will be minimised against men… I just don’t see it. His kicking makes players have to stop and go back for the ball. I like both Reid and Langford because you can see that they are thinking ahead of the next move. It’s a thing you can’t really learn.

Smilie was so average in the Champs. I just can’t get over it. It makes me question his desire. I take motivation over talent if it’s a coin toss.

Again gotta disagree re Lalor

He got 34 disposals (BOG & most on ground) playing as a mid in his 1st game back for GWVR after injury ... since then he is playing a mix of mid/forward and went 22 (2nd most for GWV) , 25 (BOG & most on the ground), 11 (injured in this last game) ... only played 4 CL games this year as he was playing for Geelong Grammar in APS ... kicked 7 against Wesley

In the u18 Championship games he didn't get much of a look in as a mid as he had a couple in front of him and was also coming off an injury ... played forward mostly and kicked 3 in one match

He is listed as 187cm (6ft 2) so I am not sure how his size gets magically minimised

As for his kicking ... technically he is a very good sound kick and very penetrating ... again .... if you watch his highlights he hits plenty of targets .... also some kicks forward ... a better forward would mark .... and of course their isn't one player in the draft that doesn't occasionally miss a target under pressure ... they all do

There is so much to work with here ... if he can stay injury free ... which could be an issue

It seems you are the only one questioning his skills / technical ability ... as most don't see what you are seeing

Hope we get to see him again in the CL Finals but unlikely because he apparently he has a hamstring issue now (missed last weekend)

 

[Minga]

From the above posts it would seem that 7/8 will get us two decent players, but 5/6 would have generated players that we would be delighted with.

For 7/8 to delight the majority will require a fair bit of luck of a player or two sliding a little. If teams below us fancy a tall in Trainor that may assist us to get "The Chosen Ones".

At this point I’d be happy with any two of:

Draper, FOS, Lalor, Trainor, Smillie, Reid, Langford, Smith.

Guaranteed 2 of the above will be available to us, and I can’t find a combination I wouldn’t be excited for (even though some will be disappointed if we essentially turn Battle into Trainor but that’s football for ya and he looks a good prospect).

Now I’m more thinking about what we can do later on in the draft, starting with Adelaide’s round 2. If we can can grab a slider with our third pick then we are truly rolling, and by next year it’s possible we aren’t even looking for mids in the draft for the first time in forever.

Not to mention, Elwood Pickett could be a player…

 

[HeavenlySources]

Again gotta disagree re Lalor

He got 34 disposals (BOG & most on ground) playing as a mid in his 1st game back for GWVR after injury ... since then he is playing a mix of mid/forward and went 22 (2nd most for GWV) , 25 (BOG & most on the ground), 11 (injured in this last game) ... only played 4 CL games this year as he was playing for Geelong Grammar in APS ... kicked 7 against Wesley

In the u18 Championship games he didn't get much of a look in as a mid as he had a couple in front of him and was also coming off an injury ... played forward mostly and kicked 3 in one match

He is listed as 187cm (6ft 2) so I am not sure how his size gets magically minimised

As for his kicking ... technically he is a very good sound kick and very penetrating ... again .... if you watch his highlights he hits plenty of targets .... also some kicks forward ... a better forward would mark .... and of course their isn't one player in the draft that doesn't occasionally miss a target under pressure ... they all do

There is so much to work with here ... if he can stay injury free ... which could be an issue

It seems you are the only one questioning his skills / technical ability ... as most don't see what you are seeing

Hope we get to see him again in the CL Finals but unlikely because he apparently he has a hamstring issue now (missed last weekend)

He is in Pick 1 conversation and theres a reason why.

Not bothered about the recent hamstring injury or his lower disposal numbers when playing forward or off injury.

The injury situation is perfect for us he might actually get past Melbourne & Gold Coast/Richmond now.

 

[gringo2011]

I agree at the moment it doesn’t seem like a big gap but there are less faults in the top tier and they’re all mids with one in particular (Draper) I think extremely suitable for us. You’ve outlined already yourself the ‘knocks’ on the second tier.

To answer your question, there is an approx. 27-35% chance a top 3 pick is a ‘Dow like’ bust, which is the best available odds. It is statistically better to have pick 2 than 7 & 8 plus the addition of pick two being a higher expected level of player.

For every 2.7 Dow’s you throw at me I’ll give you 7.3 Andrew Brayshaw, LDU, Kelly. All guys we’ve chased or been desperate to be in the hunt for.

Your stats are a guide but there are huge variations between individual drafts. It’s like looking at a game where Byrnes gets 25 disposals and so does Bont and then extrapolating that Byrnes is just as good. Moving up is the right move in some drafts. Not this one. I think you are halving your chances not increasing them.

 

[gringo2011]

Again gotta disagree re Lalor

He got 34 disposals (BOG & most on ground) playing as a mid in his 1st game back for GWVR after injury ... since then he is playing a mix of mid/forward and went 22 (2nd most for GWV) , 25 (BOG & most on the ground), 11 (injured in this last game) ... only played 4 CL games this year as he was playing for Geelong Grammar in APS ... kicked 7 against Wesley

In the u18 Championship games he didn't get much of a look in as a mid as he had a couple in front of him and was also coming off an injury ... played forward mostly and kicked 3 in one match

He is listed as 187cm (6ft 2) so I am not sure how his size gets magically minimised

As for his kicking ... technically he is a very good sound kick and very penetrating ... again .... if you watch his highlights he hits plenty of targets .... also some kicks forward ... a better forward would mark .... and of course their isn't one player in the draft that doesn't occasionally miss a target under pressure ... they all do

There is so much to work with here ... if he can stay injury free ... which could be an issue

It seems you are the only one questioning his skills / technical ability ... as most don't see what you are seeing

Hope we get to see him again in the CL Finals but unlikely because he apparently he has a hamstring issue now (missed last weekend)

I’m saying his size won’t be a massive advantage any more because once he’s playing in the AFL. He’s a bigger body than most 17 or 18 year olds so can fend off and bullock. His kicking is not liability levels but he’s a kick it on a player not to advantage type. Time will tell if I’m right or not. He’s boom bust to me. Either a massive spud or a gun.

 

[_Maximus_12]

I’m saying his size won’t be a massive advantage any more because once he’s playing in the AFL. He’s a bigger body than most 17 or 18 year olds so can fend off and bullock. His kicking is not liability levels but he’s a kick it on a player not to advantage type. Time will tell if I’m right or not. He’s boom bust to me. Either a massive spud or a gun.

I don’t see him being a dud, but I see a lot of Cam Rayner in the way he plays.

We don’t need a Cam Rayner. We need genuine mids, especially if we miss on Peatling and Macrae

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I sort of have my eye on Gross second round.
Not fancy but seems to be effective.

 

[Joffaboy]

I know this is the draft thread, however I just want to come to the defence of Dow.

Yes a no.3 dp, but has not been able to get a run at it. Last month of the season started to get his touch and looked like a decent midfielder.
Is he a no.3, well that's depends on perspective. Jack Billings

14

Jack Billings

Age

29

Ht

185cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

19.7

5star

K

11.7

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.3

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

4.6

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

was a no.3 and while always compared to Bont, has played 170 AFL games and has been solid very occasionally extremely good..

Dow can be a very good mid if he gets a free injury run. I thought he Jones and Clark improved our mids immensely when they all got consecutive games and built their match fitness.
Like Wood, never could get started at his first club, with a good run at being injury free he can be a very valuable cog.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I know this is the draft thread, however I just want to come to the defence of Dow.

Yes a no.3 dp, but has not been able to get a run at it. Last month of the season started to get his touch and looked like a decent midfielder.
Is he a no.3, well that's depends on perspective. Jack Billings was a no.3 and while always compared to Bont, has played 170 AFL games and has been solid very occasionally extremely good..

Dow can be a very good mid if he gets a free injury run. I thought he Jones and Clark improved our mids immensely when they all got consecutive games and built their match fitness.
Like Wood, never could get started at his first club, with a good run at being injury free he can be a very valuable cog.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

He's played 83 games at AFL level.
Pretty sure by now that he's not going to be the next Lenny Hayes.
His draft position is now totally irrelevant he was a cheap trade , and he displays none of the ability that had him drafted early. He was meant to be an inside mid ffs. What we've got seems to be not much better than Byrnes.

At AFL level he has not really displayed any of the attributes that had him drafted early. Notably he doesn't seem to win many contested possessions.
He was drafted early on the back of ....

STRENGTHS

• Powerful
• Classy
• Contested work
• Vision
• Scoreboard impact

Dow has plenty of strings to his bow with the inside midfielder winning 51 per cent of his possessions at the coal face. Despite winning most of his possessions on the inside, Dow has a touch of class about the way he wins it and moves through a stoppage.

Paddy Dow

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"

central.rookieme.com

 

[Remboy]

At this point I’d be happy with any two of:

Draper, FOS, Lalor, Trainor, Smillie, Reid, Langford, Smith.

Guaranteed 2 of the above will be available to us, and I can’t find a combination I wouldn’t be excited for (even though some will be disappointed if we essentially turn Battle into Trainor but that’s football for ya and he looks a good prospect).

Now I’m more thinking about what we can do later on in the draft, starting with Adelaide’s round 2. If we can can grab a slider with our third pick then we are truly rolling, and by next year it’s possible we aren’t even looking for mids in the draft for the first time in forever.

Not to mention, Elwood Pickett could be a player…

I’m wondering if we might trade a future second into this year, bundle that up with our current second and try to get another pick in the top twenty. Take two in the group you’ve mentioned, best available mid left over with our third pick, get Peckett and Cole and we’ll have done ok.

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

I do not "dismiss" people's thoughts, I question them. I've never questioned someone without backing it up with an explanation that they can engage with, just like how I did with your previous message

The people who are of your description are the people that go around saying "Wrong." and "Incorrect.". That's arrogance

If you don't like the way I express myself then please feel free to mute me

you literally told me that there would be no sliders this year and the top 6 was sewn up (probably is lol)

I agree with most of what you post but you do have an arrogant posting style

edit: but so do I so I can't really talk

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

Jack Billings was a no.3 and while always compared to Bont, has played 170 AFL games and has been solid very occasionally extremely good..

one man's solid is another man's gas

 

[akaifu]

He's played 83 games at AFL level.
Pretty sure by now that he's not going to be the next Lenny Hayes.
His draft position is now totally irrelevant he was a cheap trade , and he displays none of the ability that had him drafted early. He was meant to be an inside mid ffs. What we've got seems to be not much better than Byrnes.

At AFL level he has not really displayed any of the attributes that had him drafted early. Notably he doesn't seem to win many contested possessions.
He was drafted early on the back of ....

STRENGTHS

• Powerful
• Classy
• Contested work
• Vision
• Scoreboard impact

Dow has plenty of strings to his bow with the inside midfielder winning 51 per cent of his possessions at the coal face. Despite winning most of his possessions on the inside, Dow has a touch of class about the way he wins it and moves through a stoppage.

Paddy Dow

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"

central.rookieme.com

He had 4 months out with a knee injury at the start of the year, you just have to give him another year before judging. Clearly not at 100% conditioning which would affect his running and ability to get from contest to contest. Things can change very quickly with a healthy run and some tweaks to game style - the latter we saw with Byrnes

 

[SaintsSeptember]

He had 4 months out with a knee injury at the start of the year, you just have to give him another year before judging. Clearly not at 100% conditioning which would affect his running and ability to get from contest to contest. Things can change very quickly with a healthy run and some tweaks to game style - the latter we saw with Byrnes

I've judged, but i can un-judge if he starts going good.
I don't disagree with the conditioning thing, but he's had years at Carlton too.
My judging also extends to SOS and his cliche "recruit a guy from the last team i was at " style.

 

[Mangus]

I think if a draftee is going to translate to AFL they generally need a standout skill or talent that they can build their game around. If a draftee is just good at most things chances are that wont be good enough at AFL.
Top 10 Examples from recent drafts

Chayse Jones
Dylan Stephens

15

Dylan Stephens

Age

23

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

Will Phillips
Josh Ward
Neil Erasmus
Elijah Tsatas
Jhye Clarke

All midfielders who racked it up in the underage comps but have struggled to make it at AFL and all who lack a distinctive AFL level trait all good at most things but no standout trait athletically or skill wise got picked high because they got a lot of the ball at underage level. Some of them may still have good AFL careers but none look like being elite A grade players.

I am sure there are examples some will find that break this rule. Lenny Hayes

Lenny Hayes

Age

44

Ht

186cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.5

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

5.0

5star

CL

5.2

5star

No current season stats available

D

9.2

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

0.4

3star

is one I can think of that was a slow burn early but ultimately his competitiveness and strength made him a champion more than his skill set or athletic ability. So character and work ethic can be that elite AFL trait but that is hard to assess from Draft videos. Maybe the skill to look at for that is tackling Hayes and Steele always excelled at that and in our current crop Garcia does too. That might be the best guide to demonstrate a players character and the impact that has at the next level.

Looking at our recent drafting in the first round they all do have an elite AFL trait that would put them in the top 10% of AFL listed players for that skill/trait:

Wilson - elite runner
Phillipou - Athletic ability and size
Naz - Kicking and decision making

All of the above have locked a position in the team that is based on their core skill/trait

Of this years draft the ones with a clear elite skill or trait IMO are:

FOS - elite skills and athleticism
Lalor - Power and explosiveness
Draper - Run and Speed
Reid - elite hands and agility
Smille - Size and Athletic Ability

Question is are these elite traits enough to put them in the top 10% of the AFL for those traits or do they come back to the pack at AFL level. Of all of them it is Reid's hands and agility that I think put him not just in the top 10% but in the top handful at AFL level which is why I want him despite his athletic profile and lack of penetration on his kicking.

The ones with less measurable skills whose draft position is mostly based on their ball winning are:
Jagga
Ashcroft
Langford

Langford might be Lenny - Ashcroft might be as good as his brother who also fits into this bracket - Jagga is an eel in stoppages maybe that's his elite skill. Generally you will see the words consistent, reliable, ball winner applied to their draft profiles and they will be called a "Safe Pick" personally I don't think there is such a thing as a safe pick unless you have a Harley Reid in your sights.

I like Murphy Reid and Draper as best fits to pair with Phillipou long term but Draper will be gone before our pick so Lalor would be my choice. Smillie is too similar to Phillipou FOS will be gone Jagga not a good pairing with Reid and probably gone. Langford Reid and Phillipou could work.

Finally if Trainor is available and we think he is the best player we need to take him would be like ignoring Naughton because we need midfielders something we will rue for years. Same for Travaglia he has something special as well.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I’m wondering if we might trade a future second into this year, bundle that up with our current second and try to get another pick in the top twenty. Take two in the group you’ve mentioned, best available mid left over with our third pick, get Peckett and Cole and we’ll have done ok.

We'll go back a bit with compensation and bullshit picks, but we have the 4th pick in round 2 as it stands.
Will a pick 18/19/20 be that much better?

 

[Tommy Wigs]

you literally told me that there would be no sliders this year and the top 6 was sewn up (probably is lol)

I agree with most of what you post but you do have an arrogant posting style

I really think there will be surprises this year. Too much to work with outside of the so called Tier 1 that someone will fall in love with another player. Probably us after Lalor, Langford and / or Smilie get through. Then we get a HBF and a small forward

 

[Tommy Wigs]

I think if a draftee is going to translate to AFL they generally need a standout skill or talent that they can build their game around. If a draftee is just good at most things chances are that wont be good enough at AFL.
Top 10 Examples from recent drafts

Chayse Jones
Dylan Stephens
Will Phillips
Josh Ward
Neil Erasmus
Elijah Tsatas
Jhye Clarke

All midfielders who racked it up in the underage comps but have struggled to make it at AFL and all who lack a distinctive AFL level trait all good at most things but no standout trait athletically or skill wise got picked high because they got a lot of the ball at underage level. Some of them may still have good AFL careers but none look like being elite A grade players.

I am sure there are examples some will find that break this rule. Lenny Hayes is one I can think of that was a slow burn early but ultimately his competitiveness and strength made him a champion more than his skill set or athletic ability. So character and work ethic can be that elite AFL trait but that is hard to assess from Draft videos. Maybe the skill to look at for that is tackling Hayes and Steele always excelled at that and in our current crop Garcia does too. That might be the best guide to demonstrate a players character and the impact that has at the next level.

Looking at our recent drafting in the first round they all do have an elite AFL trait that would put them in the top 10% of AFL listed players for that skill/trait:

Wilson - elite runner
Phillipou - Athletic ability and size
Naz - Kicking and decision making

All of the above have locked a position in the team that is based on their core skill/trait

Of this years draft the ones with a clear elite skill or trait IMO are:

FOS - elite skills and athleticism
Lalor - Power and explosiveness
Draper - Run and Speed
Reid - elite hands and agility
Smille - Size and Athletic Ability

Question is are these elite traits enough to put them in the top 10% of the AFL for those traits or do they come back to the pack at AFL level. Of all of them it is Reid's hands and agility that I think put him not just in the top 10% but in the top handful at AFL level which is why I want him despite his athletic profile and lack of penetration on his kicking.

The ones with less measurable skills whose draft position is mostly based on their ball winning are:
Jagga
Ashcroft
Langford

Langford might be Lenny - Ashcroft might be as good as his brother who also fits into this bracket - Jagga is an eel in stoppages maybe that's his elite skill. Generally you will see the words consistent, reliable, ball winner applied to their draft profiles and they will be called a "Safe Pick" personally I don't think there is such a thing as a safe pick unless you have a Harley Reid in your sights.

I like Murphy Reid and Draper as best fits to pair with Phillipou long term but Draper will be gone before our pick so Lalor would be my choice. Smillie is too similar to Phillipou FOS will be gone Jagga not a good pairing with Reid and probably gone. Langford Reid and Phillipou could work.

Finally if Trainor is available and we think he is the best player we need to take him would be like ignoring Naughton because we need midfielders something we will rue for years. Same for Travaglia he has something special as well.

Excellent post.

 

[Remboy]

We'll go back a bit with compensation and bullshit picks, but we have the 4th pick in round 2 as it stands.
Will a pick 18/19/20 be that much better?

Maybe not. I was probably thinking we’d need to get closer to pick 15 to make it worthwhile. There seems to be a group around that might be more valuable.
SOS does like a pick swap.
I’m just trying to find ways to maximise what we have and potentially getting another first round pick. Splitting pick 8 is a possibility but I think rather just two of the best eight available.