Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup Day (3200m)no after timing posts.

[Areyoufireal]

Race order fore those on the same race multi places..

Winner: Knight's Choice
2: Warp Speed
3: Okita Soushi
4: Zardozi
5: Absurde
6: Circle of Fire
7: Fancy Man
8: Land Legend
9: Buckaroo
10: Kovalica
11: Vauban
12: Onesmoothoperator
13: Valiant King
14: Sea King
15: Interpretation
16: Sharp 'N' Smart
17: Trust In You
18: Mostly Cloudy
19: Manzoice
20: Positivity
21: The Map
22: Saint George
23: Just Fine

 

[Lunchtime]

For those that follow Timeform ratings (I do):


Timeform Ratings

Caulfield Cup
1st: Duke De Sessa - 121
2nd Buckeroo - 124

The Everest
1st: Bella Nipotina - 123

More info in article below.

Talking Points: Saturday 19th Of October 2024

Caulfield Cup & Everest day threw up some interesting results and some big ratings.

www.racingandsports.com.au

 

[Jugada]

Last top 10 thoughts before Tuesday. Will post my actual bets later if anyone is interested but...


1. BUCKAROO - Just has to go on top for me after that Caulfield Cup run. Whether there are doubts on the trip or not the eye test from that race said back me in a MC. Brings through the super strong WFA form which historically is very good and just has panels on what these others are coming through. Draws the carpark but really not that concerned when they have an age to find a position and he can slot in anywhere in the run and be fine.

2. ABSURDE - Brings across much stronger form than the Euros who have already been out here and dominated and price has barely budged the whole way through. Travelled and ran well enough last year in a stronger race and meeting the stablemate a kilo better off a good advantage.

3. VAUBAN - Another Euro who brings out much better form than the ones we have already seen out here. Failing last year as favourite isn't ideal but basically the same horse and getting a bigger price this year in a weaker field. I do have concerns on a firm track but his best is better than most we have seen.

4. SEA KING - Fantastic win in the Bendigo Cup making a run from a long way out and just going clear up the straight. Little between him and Onesmoothoperator but have to give him the slight edge coming through the Ebor together where he held an SP profile advantage and have seen nothing in their runs out here to move the needle on either of them.

5. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR - Great win in the Geelong Cup showing a decent turn of speed off a slowly run race. Should suit these conditions but have yo have him just behind Sea King.

6. SAINT GEORGE - Entire prep looked absolutely cooked coming up to the bend in the MV Gold Cup but really got warmed up late for a nice Cup trial. One time favourite and on his European form last year would be likely winning so you at least know he has a level in him that could win if 3200m at Flemington wakes him up.

7. OKITA SOUSHI - Finally found form in this country and running well. Was going like complete dog shit into the race last year and still ran pretty well so should go much better this year. Will be really strong at the end of 2 miles as well.

8. WARP SPEED - Went like shit at Caulfield but to be fair that's exactly what most were expecting once the track was soft. Flemington and a firm track are what he needs and at his best could easily be running into F4s here and we are getting a price now to find out for exotics.

9. MOSTLY CLOUDY - Looking for the Sheraz style blow out chances now for rough F4s because I don't think there is much between what we have here in the staying ranks and the ones at triple figures are only marginally behind those much shorter. He is a real tough 2 miler who will run the trip right and SPd $4.80 against Point King a couple runs ago who was like 4th or 5th pick in the betting before coming out.

10. FANCY MAN - Another real bolter to include for F4s. Was 3WNC in the Naturalism and ran well, ran a decent 3rd in the Herbert Power just behind Okita Soushi and then 6th in the Caulfield Cup was probably better than everything outside the first 3 home.

 

[Lunchtime]

POST CAULFIELD CUP RANKINGS

Likely going to see a lot of movement after the Geelong Cup and MV Cup in the bottom half but for now

1. BUCKAROO - Had severe doubts on him running out the 2400m last week but the way he ran out that Caulfield Cup I have a lot less doubt on him at Flemington. The absolute quality in the field with strong WFA form and a turn of foot. He doesn't even need to super strong over 2 miles to be winning this, just handle it well enough. Take DDS out of that CC and he wins by 5 with huge margins in behind and cops a big penalty so pretty well weighted with that in mind.

2. ABSURDE - Pushing him above JB with the latter's odds coming in a bit and Sayedaty Sedaty not really franking that Euro 3yo form. Happy to bank on a firmish track at this point which will suit him most of the Euros and we are still getting a reasonable price about him.

3. JAN BRUEGHEL - Slips down simply because his odds are getting in too short and the form around SS didn't look that strong on Saturday.

4. VAUBAN - Simply through a ton of failures with the locals he has continued to ladder up. Still not a huge fan of the horse and if its a firm track on the day ill be leaving him out of pretty much everything.

5. WARP SPEED - Dreadful in the CC but to be fair it is exactly what I was expecting on a wet track. A firm track and 3200m will be completely different but would want to be getting a decent price about him on the day to make up for getting beat 16L leading in.

6. LAND LEGEND - Couldn't possibly have him beating Buckaroo after the CC but still ran 3rd after getting worked up pre race so has to slot in around here.

7. FRANCESCO GUARDI - Ticking along reasonably well behind WFA horses running on ok over unsuitable trips. Has raced three times beyond 2000m in this country for two huge runs and the flop that was too bad to be true in the CC last year so can see him improving well at his next run and coming into First 4 contention. Needs to pass the ballot still but would want to be doing that if he is any chance anyway.

8. SAINT GEORGE - Likely gone based on last run but if he was to bounce back in the MV Cup he is at least one who has the ability to win at his best which a lot of these don't.

9. KINESIOLOGY - Hard to see him getting a run at this point but if Birdman is favourite in a Geelong Cup and a 30-40s chance then this guy is a watch bringing in better form.

10. OKITA SOUSHI - Simply a tail end of First 4s option but has finally found some sort of form in this country and will run out the 2 miles and if he could run 11th in the race last year I could easily see him picking up a spot or 2 this year.

Buckeroo produced a Timeform rating of 124 to run 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and only has 54.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. Has to be a top 4 chance. Will be going in my trifectas and quartets.

 

[TBellicious]

POST CAULFIELD CUP RANKINGS

Likely going to see a lot of movement after the Geelong Cup and MV Cup in the bottom half but for now

1. BUCKAROO - Had severe doubts on him running out the 2400m last week but the way he ran out that Caulfield Cup I have a lot less doubt on him at Flemington. The absolute quality in the field with strong WFA form and a turn of foot. He doesn't even need to super strong over 2 miles to be winning this, just handle it well enough. Take DDS out of that CC and he wins by 5 with huge margins in behind and cops a big penalty so pretty well weighted with that in mind.

2. ABSURDE - Pushing him above JB with the latter's odds coming in a bit and Sayedaty Sedaty not really franking that Euro 3yo form. Happy to bank on a firmish track at this point which will suit him most of the Euros and we are still getting a reasonable price about him.

3. JAN BRUEGHEL - Slips down simply because his odds are getting in too short and the form around SS didn't look that strong on Saturday.

4. VAUBAN - Simply through a ton of failures with the locals he has continued to ladder up. Still not a huge fan of the horse and if its a firm track on the day ill be leaving him out of pretty much everything.

5. WARP SPEED - Dreadful in the CC but to be fair it is exactly what I was expecting on a wet track. A firm track and 3200m will be completely different but would want to be getting a decent price about him on the day to make up for getting beat 16L leading in.

6. LAND LEGEND - Couldn't possibly have him beating Buckaroo after the CC but still ran 3rd after getting worked up pre race so has to slot in around here.

7. FRANCESCO GUARDI - Ticking along reasonably well behind WFA horses running on ok over unsuitable trips. Has raced three times beyond 2000m in this country for two huge runs and the flop that was too bad to be true in the CC last year so can see him improving well at his next run and coming into First 4 contention. Needs to pass the ballot still but would want to be doing that if he is any chance anyway.

8. SAINT GEORGE - Likely gone based on last run but if he was to bounce back in the MV Cup he is at least one who has the ability to win at his best which a lot of these don't.

9. KINESIOLOGY - Hard to see him getting a run at this point but if Birdman is favourite in a Geelong Cup and a 30-40s chance then this guy is a watch bringing in better form.

10. OKITA SOUSHI - Simply a tail end of First 4s option but has finally found some sort of form in this country and will run out the 2 miles and if he could run 11th in the race last year I could easily see him picking up a spot or 2 this year.

Don't rate Point King?

 

[Jugada]

Don't rate Point King?

Crazy unders for mine.

Comes through the second tier staying races against horse that would all be $50-$100 in a Melbourne Cup on the day. If he drifts right out on the day then could include him in exotics but would need $30+ and if he is $15 on BF now I can't see that happening

 

[FFB1]

Birdman a watch today, probably needs to win. Despite taking the price on Muramasa hope it does and gets in with bare minimum/zero penalty.

 

[Hawksboy72]

2nd,3rd & 4th in the CC could easily run the tri in the MC.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bombers32]

Birdman a watch today, probably needs to win. Despite taking the price on Muramasa hope it does and gets in with bare minimum/zero penalty.

Agree, super interesting runner with just four runs under the belt. 2L behind Illinois and then a poor one. Good watch today.

 

[Jamz]

Agree, super interesting runner with just four runs under the belt. 2L behind Illinois and then a poor one. Good watch today.

Big drifter though, that too after a few scratchings which caused some deductions.

Getting out to a very backable price.

 

[cruskits]

2nd,3rd & 4th in the CC could easily run the tri in the MC.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Bucks - yep
LL - if it doesn’t get fizzed by 100k people and settles in the running then yes. Will put it in exotics on the premise that is does settle
Zardozi - you have to be a pretty special mare to run a place in the MC, think it runs 8-12 but can’t see top 4. Had every chance in the CC

 

[Lunchtime]

Bucks - yep
LL - if it doesn’t get fizzed by 100k people and settles in the running then yes. Will put it in exotics on the premise that is does settle
Zardozi - you have to be a pretty special mare to run a place in the MC, think it runs 8-12 but can’t see top 4. Had every chance in the CC

May not need to be a special mare this year, the field isn't exactly brimming with depth.

 

[Jugada]

Zardozi was quite poor in the CC to my eye. Had the dream run and travelled up at the 800m as the winner and from there just dropped off and one paced to the line. Would have pretty major doubts on her running out the 2 miles on that effort

 

[Jugada]

Nice win Onesmoothoperator but straight into an unbackable price

 

[plays tall 1]

Nice win Onesmoothoperator but straight into an unbackable price

Looks a good chance. Like Prince of Arran, his English form belies his suitability to Australian conditions. Has a turn of foot.

 

[Jugada]

Looks a good chance. Like Prince of Arran, his English form belies his suitability to Australian conditions. Has a turn of foot.

Would be a chance but think I would need $15-$20 on the day to get involved. They were the dregs of our staying ranks and to have to take less than $12 this far out seems way too short

 

[Aussie Assault]

Would be a chance but think I would need $15-$20 on the day to get involved. They were the dregs of our staying ranks and to have to take less than $12 this far out seems way too short

It's as good as you'd want to see out of the Geelong Cup. Sat 3 wide (with cover), got going early, sustained the run, and gapped them eased down late. Has form over further.

Some of that Jan Bruegal / Illinois form seems to be a little suss here in Oz at the minute, with Satdee in the CC and Birdman today.. Both poo. Outside of Buckeroo, there's really not much else in the race that I can entertain, so I'd happily back today's winner around $10s.

It's feeling more and more like a real blow out year of some donkey.

 

[FFB1]

Punt wise skinniest ever been. Warp Speed (dry track, please), George (needs to win/run very well Friday) and Kinesiology (unlikely) my only live bets. Fair outlay on SS and Birdman a while ago ante post Fair chance will be backing a couple on the day, behind the gates.

 

[bigblueboy]

37 runs and arguably its best win today. Think it says a lot about the opposition.
Hasn’t suddenly become a good horse.

 

[bigblueboy]

Kovalica is a decent outsider. Form around good horses and has had smart preparation.
Weight and 3200 are the queries. Plenty of others with the same ?

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Could sugar lips Waller have a throw at the stumps with Via Sistina. Meets Buckaroo 2.5 kgs worst for a narrow win in the Turnbull. Buckaroo had the better prep for 3,200 metres both are by Fastnet Rock not noted as a staying sire but both stoutly bred on the dam side with both being from a Galileo dam.

You would think not but VS has recently firmed from 26/1 to 21/1 and taking a line through Buckaroo would have to be a chance even allowing for the distance query.

 

[Jugada]

Kovalica is a decent outsider. Form around good horses and has had smart preparation.
Weight and 3200 are the queries. Plenty of others with the same ?

The most insane long priced go imo

Holes everywhere

 

[Jugada]

Could sugar lips Waller have a throw at the stumps with Viva Sistina. Meets Buckaroo 2.5 kgs worst for a narrow win in the Turnbull. Buckaroo had the better prep for 3,200 metres both are by Fastnet Rock not noted as a staying sire but both stoutly bred on the dam side with both being from a Galileo dam.

You would think not but VS has recently firmed from 26/1 to 21/1 and taking a line through Buckaroo would have to be a chance even allowing for the distance query.

Nah would be next to no chance. The Champions Stakes is sitting there post Cox Plate and Waller already has one of his class WFA horses having a crack

She firmed because people backed her after she dumped the jockey at the Valley and the connections were saying she wouldnt go to the Cox Plate

 

[lightred]

It's as good as you'd want to see out of the Geelong Cup. Sat 3 wide (with cover), got going early, sustained the run, and gapped them eased down late. Has form over further.

Some of that Jan Bruegal / Illinois form seems to be a little suss here in Oz at the minute, with Satdee in the CC and Birdman today.. Both poo. Outside of Buckeroo, there's really not much else in the race that I can entertain, so I'd happily back today's winner around $10s.

It's feeling more and more like a real blow out year of some donkey.

It was a very good run & has to be a winning chance with the light weight.

I noticed his runs have been quite spaced out in the past and doesn't seem to go as well 2nd up - but need to look a little closer, I could be wrong.

Backing JB first up you really take a gamble that he's going to enjoy the Aussie conditions. Seems like quote a few just don't run well here

 

[Jugada]

Interpretation is shaping as a First 4 roughie on the day for me

 

[Jamz]

Buckaroo will probably jump favorite at this point.

JB obviously hasn't done anything to make himself appear less of a chance but the horses behind him on various occasions haven't exactly made him look very good either.