List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[MadMundy]

You're kidding yourself if you think we should trade Cox or Darcy, would be the laughing stock of the league once again if we did either of those things, neither of them are tradeable, I'd arguably put them in the untouchable camp.

 

[Purple Suit]

Over the last 10-15 years Geelong players have constantly taken unders to keep the group together & keep having cracks at flags.

SuRe ThEy HaVe GeElOnG

The biggest indicator of salary cap rules enforcement is the fact there hasn’t been a breech since Tippet & the Essendon drug saga. Not even a mistake or small fine has been reported on.

There use to be multiple mistakes every year and now every club is perfect despite being run by hugely competitive people who would sell their own grandmothers for an advantage.

They will crack down once Freo do something no doubt.

 

[Taylor]

The biggest indicator of salary cap rules enforcement is the fact there hasn’t been a breech since Tippet & the Essendon drug saga. Not even a mistake or small fine has been reported on.

There use to be multiple mistakes every year and now every club is perfect despite being run by hugely competitive people who would sell their own grandmothers for an advantage.

They will crack down once Freo do something no doubt.

Follows the same path as there not being any, as in not a single, illicit drug policy strike announcement that hasn't first been in the media forcing the AFL's hand.

Well done everyone.

 

[Dockeroo]

They aren't mathematically impossible. The majority of players in the competition earn less than the average salary. The Herald Sun numbers are definitely plausible, we'd just have a bigger squeeze than average on the low end of our list.

In 2023 there were 660 players on senior lists. The average salary was $440k. 128 players were on 100-200k; 106 on 200-300k; 96 on 300-400k; 91 on 400-500k. Estimate 40 from the last grouping and you have 56% under the average, and most of these by a large amount.

Assume the salaries are evenly distributed in the brackets, and there are around 20 senior listed players at every club below the $440k mark, at an average of $260k.

If you include rookie listed players on $100k it is about 62%, or 26 out of 44 players on a list, at an average of $226k each.

These are 2023 numbers. Bump it up by 5% for 2024 increase. So with rookies, you'd have the bottom 26 at every club on an average of $240k.

And just because we have some space next year for our targets, doesn't mean we have it this year. The salary cap is planned years in advance and would be flexible (e.g. bring money forward for players on long term deals if a target doesn't come and there is a hole left over), and there is no way we would be leaving significant space in any year.

Yes people mistakenly think the average salary is paid to the mid ranking player at each club.

If there’s 44 players on a list, the 22nd best player is not earning the average salary. It would be more accurate to quote median salaries but they never do that.
The 22nd highest paid player at freo is earning a lot less than $440k. The salaries are non-normally distributed. I would guess the average salary is paid to approx the 13th or 14th highest paid player on the list.
Off the top of my head the following are all earning less than $250k this year:
Draper
Williams
Corbett
Kuek
Simpson
Murphy
Wagner
Emmett
Banfield
Stanley
Reidy
Delean
Voss
Wagner
Sharp
Jones
Worner
Knobel
Mcdonald
Davies

That’s 20 players already. Pretty much half the list.

Then guys like Johnson, Sturt, Hughes and NOD probably in that next 250-350 bracket.

Players that generally get paid more than most people realise are former first round picks.
It probably surprises a lot of people here but Neil Erasmus, as a 2021 draft top 10 pick, for example is on a minimum of $400k this year, probably $450k, and next year too. Same for Heath chapman. Amiss too. Amiss probably over $500k given he’s on a long term deal and is a player in the rising star and in the most valuable position on the ground.

This article here from Peter Ryan of the age explains it well.

AFL 2023: How rule change will impact salaries of AFL draftees

Third-year players cashed in under the old system, but now most AFL draftees will have to wait a little longer for the most lucrative contracts. Learn how their salaries will be determined.

www.theage.com.au

Others paid a premium are guys traded into your club. Aish would be a good example. JOM and Brodie too. All former top 10/minidraft picks that have been well paid since year 3 of their careers onwards.

 

[s_wd6]

Why are people still talking about trading Cox? He was unfit for the entire season. Imagine tearing your hammy off the bone and trying to stay fit…

Just to change from the usual trade Darcy talk on here.

 

[s_wd6]

Yes people mistakenly think the average salary is paid to the mid ranking player at each club.

If there’s 44 players on a list, the 22nd best player is not earning the average salary. It would be more accurate to quote median salaries but they never do that.
The 22nd highest paid player at freo is earning a lot less than $440k. The salaries are non-normally distributed. I would guess the average salary is paid to approx the 13th or 14th highest paid player on the list.
Off the top of my head the following are all earning less than $250k this year:
Draper
Williams
Corbett
Kuek
Simpson
Murphy
Wagner
Emmett
Banfield
Stanley
Reidy
Delean
Voss
Wagner
Sharp
Jones
Worner
Knobel
Mcdonald
Davies

That’s 20 players already. Pretty much half the list.

Then guys like Johnson, Sturt, Hughes and NOD probably in that next 250-350 bracket.

Players that generally get paid more than most people realise are former first round picks.
It probably surprises a lot of people here but Neil Erasmus, as a 2021 draft top 10 pick, for example is on a minimum of $400k this year, probably $450k, and next year too. Same for Heath chapman. Amiss too. Amiss probably over $500k given he’s on a long term deal and is a player in the rising star and in the most valuable position on the ground.

This article here from Peter Ryan of the age explains it well.

AFL 2023: How rule change will impact salaries of AFL draftees

Third-year players cashed in under the old system, but now most AFL draftees will have to wait a little longer for the most lucrative contracts. Learn how their salaries will be determined.

www.theage.com.au

Others paid a premium are guys traded into your club. Aish would be a good example. JOM and Brodie too. All former top 10/minidraft picks that have been well paid since year 3 of their careers onwards.

Makes sense. Always had the assumption that they were all a lot better paid.

 

[Persoog]

Baker and Bolton vs Warner and Pickett is liking picking craft singles when you can have Camembert. It’s like driving a Hyundai Getz instead of a Rolls Royce.

Help me out people, it’s like…

eating beyond meat when you could have grass fed steak?

 

[G Mus]

The biggest indicator of salary cap rules enforcement is the fact there hasn’t been a breech since Tippet & the Essendon drug saga. Not even a mistake or small fine has been reported on.

There use to be multiple mistakes every year and now every club is perfect despite being run by hugely competitive people who would sell their own grandmothers for an advantage.

They will crack down once Freo do something no doubt.

A few years back I remember speaking to someone who worked at the same company Adam Saad was a 200k employee at, not sure where he finds the time to add that value on top of being a full time Carlton player

 

[mike91]

A few years back I remember speaking to someone who worked at the same company Adam Saad was a 200k employee at, not sure where he finds the time to add that value on top of being a full time Carlton player

I've always felt Freo are too by the books.

 

[s_wd6]

A few years back I remember speaking to someone who worked at the same company Adam Saad was a 200k employee at, not sure where he finds the time to add that value on top of being a full time Carlton player

Visy?

 

[G Mus]

Visy?

Wasn’t actually a direct sponsor which was interesting

 

[AstonSouffle]

I've always felt Freo are too by the books.

Doesn't this add another layer of awfulness to Carlton though? That they cook the books and are still dreadful.

 

[Purpletown]

Yes people mistakenly think the average salary is paid to the mid ranking player at each club.

If there’s 44 players on a list, the 22nd best player is not earning the average salary. It would be more accurate to quote median salaries but they never do that.
The 22nd highest paid player at freo is earning a lot less than $440k. The salaries are non-normally distributed. I would guess the average salary is paid to approx the 13th or 14th highest paid player on the list.
Off the top of my head the following are all earning less than $250k this year:
Draper
Williams
Corbett
Kuek
Simpson
Murphy
Wagner
Emmett
Banfield
Stanley
Reidy
Delean
Voss
Wagner
Sharp
Jones
Worner
Knobel
Mcdonald
Davies

That’s 20 players already. Pretty much half the list.

Then guys like Johnson, Sturt, Hughes and NOD probably in that next 250-350 bracket.

Players that generally get paid more than most people realise are former first round picks.
It probably surprises a lot of people here but Neil Erasmus, as a 2021 draft top 10 pick, for example is on a minimum of $400k this year, probably $450k, and next year too. Same for Heath chapman. Amiss too. Amiss probably over $500k given he’s on a long term deal and is a player in the rising star and in the most valuable position on the ground.

This article here from Peter Ryan of the age explains it well.

AFL 2023: How rule change will impact salaries of AFL draftees

Third-year players cashed in under the old system, but now most AFL draftees will have to wait a little longer for the most lucrative contracts. Learn how their salaries will be determined.

www.theage.com.au

Others paid a premium are guys traded into your club. Aish would be a good example. JOM and Brodie too. All former top 10/minidraft picks that have been well paid since year 3 of their careers onwards.

That Wagner is a bit sneaky getting paid twice

 

[arsesmart]

Baker and Bolton vs Warner and Pickett is liking picking craft singles when you can have Camembert. It’s like driving a Hyundai Getz instead of a Rolls Royce.

Help me out people, it’s like…

Going home with the 3am stragglers after bombing out on the 11pm dazzlers?

 

[Swiggy]

Tom Morris on SEN WA said Bolton deal will get done

 

[Docker82]

Tom Morris on SEN WA said Bolton deal will get done

I don't doubt it but I still think it's a deal that gets done in the last 24 hours.

Only exception is if Pickett is coming as well. I've seen too many trades ruled out at this time of year but happen in October anyway to think it's completely off the table.

 

[DragoDelph]

I don't doubt it but I still think it's a deal that gets done in the last 24 hours.

Only exception is if Pickett is coming as well. I've seen too many trades ruled out at this time of year but happen in October anyway to think it's completely off the table.

Nah, Bolton gets done in the first couple of days.

Both clubs have other things they want to focus on, and there'll be other deals held back for drama.

Get Bolton out of the way and then go to work on anyone else we have eyes for.

 

[Paracleet]

Nah, Bolton gets done in the first couple of days.

Both clubs have other things they want to focus on, and there'll be other deals held back for drama.

Get Bolton out of the way and then go to work on anyone else we have eyes for.

I don't see Richmond have any incentive to get the deal done early. It's not like they need the picks for other players. Unless there is prior agreement on the deal they may as well hold out for as much as possible.

 

[DragoDelph]

I don't see Richmond have any incentive to get the deal done early. It's not like they need the picks for other players. Unless there is prior agreement on the deal they may as well hold out for as much as possible.

Why?

Get it done, then see if they can further improve their draft hand by helping in other deals.

Still have baker and Rioli to sort as well.

 

[Dockeroo]

Tom Morris on SEN WA said Bolton deal will get done

Did Morris speculate on what picks might be given up?

 

[Taylor]

I don't see Richmond have any incentive to get the deal done early. It's not like they need the picks for other players. Unless there is prior agreement on the deal they may as well hold out for as much as possible.

If they want to buy pick #3 from WC for Baker and pick #9 they need that pick #9 first.

 

[Swiggy]

Did Morris speculate on what picks might be given up?

Na didn’t say but he said will be pretty straight forward

 

[Docker82]

Why?

Get it done, then see if they can further improve their draft hand by helping in other deals.

Still have baker and Rioli to sort as well.

Rioli will be the one that gets done early because Gold Coast will just give them what they want. That won't change until the AFL treats them like a proper AFL club.

Expect Baker to be done in the final hour for West Coast's second rounder or equivalent value tbh.

 

[Docker82]

Na didn’t say but he said will be pretty straight forward

I'm not convinced Morris has anything of substance tbh. The trade might be simple in his mind though - probably expects us to hand over picks 10 and 11 and ask for nothing back. Even pick 10/11 and 14 won't happen unless we get something back.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'm not convinced Morris has anything of substance tbh. The trade might be simple in his mind though - probably expects us to hand over picks 10 and 11 and ask for nothing back. Even pick 10/11 and 14 won't happen unless we get something back.

Morris has been pretty strong since the start on it being 9 and the Port pick (from his opinion, not a sauce) to be fair.

I'm with Drago thinking it gets done quickly and is pretty far progressed. From my understanding, Morris might have told another poster on here discussions are very far along...