List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[kuhni]

I don’t mind the maths. Albeit an incredibly small sample and also our picks will likely not be actual top 10 picks.

I’d prefer to zoom out. Sure Walls has been decent.

However let’s take a bracket of players, from say pick 10-15. Go back however long you want to. Is there any 2 player combos that you’d rather have over Bolton? I’m sure there will be, but out of all the options?

2023: Caddy, O’Sullivan, Gothard, Tholstrup, Rogers, Croft - Caddy looks special, but way too early to judge these guys. By large been non contributors. Theres 30 combos possible here. I’d be happy to accept Caddy and any other player would be equal to Bolton. So 5/30 = 16%

2022: Phillipou, Hollands, Fletcher, Busslinger, Hewitt, Jefferson - I personally wouldn’t take any 2 of these guys over Bolton for now. Again too early to judge. 0/30 = 0%

2021: Erasmus, Milera, Sinn, Hobbs, Chesser, Aleer - Wanganeen-Milera is great, but wouldn’t pair him up with any other player over Bolton. 0/30 = 0%

2020: Reid, Pedlar, Bruhn, Powell, Chapman, Stone - getting slightly better but I’d pass on any 2 player combo here for Bolton. 0/30 = 0%

2019: Green, Flanders, Pickett, Day, Berger, Weightman - I’m happy to concede every 2 player option here you’d take over Bolton. 30/30 = 100%

My point is, when a team has a couple of picks around 10 and give it up, they often cite who they could’ve had that fell around the mark and ignore the other guys who were clearly rated around the mark.

The above shows you that 2 picks around 10-15 still has hits and misses, more often than not misses.

Would also need to consider this draft being called an "even top end". But you have a good point, Picks 6-10 is more of a sweetspot and would have a much better strike-rate.

 

[Taylor]

What are the chances you have of both coming this year?

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

I'll never publicly pull up one of deliberately antagonistic trades again (by the way, you have work to do to compete with the Richmond board) if both happen this year. I just cant see it

 

[freo84]

Walls on JLOs back at trade period

 

[Taylor]

I'll never publicly pull up one of deliberately antagonistic trades again (by the way, you have work to do to compete with the Richmond board) if both happen this year. I just cant see it

Something like:

#8, #9/F1 and #26 for Warner, #18
#9/F1, #16 and #18 for Bolton and #34

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Something like:

#8, #9/F1 and #26 for Warner, #18
#9/F1, #16 and #18 for Bolton and #34

Haha, I just cant see it

 

[Alfonz]

I'm very confident that Warner is 0% chance to come here end of 2024. Sydney are in flag mode and will dig their heels in like Papley, O'Keefe. They won't care about 2024 draft picks that will give them much less on the field than Warner next year.

 

[Cobbler]

Would also need to consider this draft being called an "even top end". But you have a good point, Picks 6-10 is more of a sweetspot and would have a much better strike-rate.

Yes. If we had pick 5 I’d be incredibly more hesitant. I’d not want to part with that at all, but probably still would if we still had 2 firsts.

9 and 10 likely 11 and 12 just pushes out those really highly rated guys and you start to gamble more with speculative stuff.

I don’t buy into stacked drafts etc. It may end up that way, but they’re often called deep.

I actually think that because there are 6 or so vying for top spot tells me it’s pretty shite.

 

[FD2646]

I'll have some of that.

How about the Freo game. AP with the gift.

Smart by the captain to put down a deposit.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'm very confident that Warner is 0% chance to come here end of 2024. Sydney are in flag mode and will dig their heels in like Papley, O'Keefe. They won't care about 2024 draft picks that will give them much less on the field than Warner next year.

The more interesting thing to me is just how big a truck would we have backed up to Sydney if Bolton WASNT asking to join?

 

[kuhni]

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

Will we need one of the first rounders to satisfy the points requirements of these NGA with the discount going down and points table being weighted to the first two rounds?

 

[Cobbler]

I'm expecting the farm to be sold. The NGA coming back online has introduced two potential first round picks to our squad in 2025 that we don't need first round picks for. It's opened the door to leaving nothing on the table for us at the draft in 2024 and 2025.

Couple that with the "family reasons" from Bolton, his media work is a direct result of the news of Warner being courted by Fremantle for this off season - Warner is the reason we have 3x first round picks this year, Warner is the player being paid half to 2/3 his actual market value in 2025 if he stays.

This is Bolton's chance to jump ship and he is the one who will push the agenda publicly to leverage himself out.

That's why I said his deal will either be the first one done or the last.

Chances of both happening? Medium.

Contingent on Shai Bolton being happy to accept a pay cut for two to three years, made up in the last four because I'm not expecting Richmond to want to pay his salary getting second bite of the sausage.

Chad Warner requesting a trade and it going through first and we will have them both by end of trade period.

Who are our 2025 NGA prospects?

 

[DragoDelph]

Only way Warner becomes live this year, is if a more important piece becomes available to them.

A true key forward, a key back, something like that.

 

[Lach72]

Who are our 2025 NGA prospects?

Hart and Toby Whan

 

[Dockeroo]

I wonder if we will get an update on Moana Hopes bub on Trade Radio this year.
Must be a toddler at this stage.

 

[guidodp15]

Does anythink Brayshaw is a chance of leaving? I never like stars delaying contract talks until the end of season. Also how do we fit Serong,Warner, Young and Brayshaw in the midfield?

Cap space taken by Serong,Young,Bolton,Jackson and Darcy.

Fyfe,Walters and tabs likely to clear up some but not that much so pay all the big boys long term.

Also Andy's MRS is from Melbourne and we all know They call the shows on where they live not the players.

 

[s_wd6]

Does anythink Brayshaw is a chance of leaving? I never like stars delaying contract talks until the end of season. Also how do we fit Serong,Warner, Young and Brayshaw in the midfield?

Cap space taken by Serong,Young,Bolton,Jackson and Darcy.

Fyfe,Walters and tabs likely to clear up some but not that much so pay all the big boys long term.

Also Andy's MRS is from Melbourne and we all know They call the shows on where they live not the players.

Not at all.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Does anythink Brayshaw is a chance of leaving? I never like stars delaying contract talks until the end of season. Also how do we fit Serong,Warner, Young and Brayshaw in the midfield?

Cap space taken by Serong,Young,Bolton,Jackson and Darcy.

Fyfe,Walters and tabs likely to clear up some but not that much so pay all the big boys long term.

Also Andy's MRS is from Melbourne and we all know They call the shows on where they live not the players.

He's contracted till next year though

 

[Alfonz]

Hart and Toby Whan

Futbolista has Whan at #5 and Hart at #16 on the list of WA players. These rankings could obviously change a lot, but if they stand then it would suggest Hart is undrafted and Whan would be in the 30ish range (maybe even later) depending on how good the WA crop is. The strongest WA contingent recently was 2019 and WA players went 3, 9, 19, 22, 27, 32, 36, 39, 55, 62.

Where it gets interesting is 2026, where we have someone who would be right at the pointy end for current prospects nationally. Long way out though for that to hold up. But we can only hope (both on the player and the rules not being changed again). From wafootball.com below.

Ruck Rover: Lucas Robinson - South Fremantle/Lake Grace Pingrup
Date of Birth: 13/02/08.
Height: 188cm
Hard-edged midfielder who thrived in the contest, winning contested ball and dominating stoppages.
Athletic and a good decision-maker, he used his strength, power, game sense and ball-winning ability to constantly drive his team forward.
Took out Western Australia’s MVP as well as being runner-up in the Pool A best and fairest.
He averaged 24.7 disposals (18 contested) 5.3 marks, 6.0 tackles and 8.7 clearances.
Hails from Zimbabwean background and is eligible to Fremantle under NGA rules.

I think these guys are relevant to our list management and trading plans, even if the rankings can change in 12 or 24 months. This Robinson kid sounds like an absolute beast.

 

[Quazar2]

Futbolista has Whan at #5 and Hart at #16 on the list of WA players. These rankings could obviously change a lot, but if they stand then it would suggest Hart is undrafted and Whan would be in the 30ish range (maybe even later) depending on how good the WA crop is. The strongest WA contingent recently was 2019 and WA players went 3, 9, 19, 22, 27, 32, 36, 39, 55, 62.

Where it gets interesting is 2026, where we have someone who would be right at the pointy end for current prospects nationally. Long way out though for that to hold up. But we can only hope (both on the player and the rules not being changed again). From wafootball.com below.



I think these guys are relevant to our list management and trading plans, even if the rankings can change in 12 or 24 months. This Robinson kid sounds like an absolute beast.

 

[JammoMonty]

Does anythink Brayshaw is a chance of leaving? I never like stars delaying contract talks until the end of season. Also how do we fit Serong,Warner, Young and Brayshaw in the midfield?

Cap space taken by Serong,Young,Bolton,Jackson and Darcy.

Fyfe,Walters and tabs likely to clear up some but not that much so pay all the big boys long term.

Also Andy's MRS is from Melbourne and we all know They call the shows on where they live not the players.

Brayshaw isn’t going anywhere

 

[JammoMonty]

IF baker comes as part of the Bolton deal, it is unlikely to involve using an extra pick.

Allegedly

Doesn’t involve Switta.

 

[s_wd6]

Doesn’t involve Switta.

Who is it then?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Won't be the Inanimate Carbon Rod. Got a better offer to go down the road to captain.

I heard the Rod declined to interview for the job though

 

[Lach72]

Doesn’t involve Switta.

Who is it then?

Anyone who mentions Sturt gets knee capped