Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[chubbspeterson]

If we split i think we'll be going Trainor/Armstrong and then the Gman.

I'd be more than happy with any of Lalor/Trainor/Armstrong/Gerreyn/Shanahan/Berry.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Get around him

This is our guy

then Gerryn/Faull/Whitlock at 22 or hope shanahan slides

Pick 40 will be gone I imagine if we get Parker

 

[chubbspeterson]

Heard last night our Pick 2 is very much on the table and the price is a Top 10 pick and another 1st. Anything back depends on the position of the two picks. Target is 5-8 and 12-15. Not sure who could afford that though, maybe Tigers if all their trades go through? No mention of whether it has to be 2024 or a future. Also no mention of why we want to do it or who we would target.

Saints might be able to package up two 2nds (Battle compo and their own) to Lions and flick us pick 7 and Lions 1st.
Tigers already have two 2nds so they could well move them to the Lions if they wanted.
Saints might want to just hold what they have though but Tigers might be keener.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Get around him

This is our guy

then Gerryn/Faull/Whitlock at 22 or hope shanahan slides

Pick 40 will be gone I imagine if we get Parker

He may not be our guy if we move pick 2.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Get around him

This is our guy

then Gerryn/Faull/Whitlock at 22 or hope shanahan slides

Pick 40 will be gone I imagine if we get Parker

Can't see X at work. Is this Smillie again?

 

[My Left Foote]

For everyone advocating for splitting pick 2, I get it, it makes sense from a list gap perspective. However something that may not be taken into consideration is the average number of games played by each pick.

If we use pick 2 there is a very good chance that player goes on to play almost 200 games for us.

If we split pick 2 and get say 6 and 13, which is being mooted by numerous posters, on average those players only play
134 and 118 games respectively, which is still a decent career.

I'm not saying this should be the basis of whether we do or don't split pick 2 but it should be considered, the prospect of
200 games from FOS, Draper or Jagga is a very tantalising one.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

For everyone advocating for splitting pick 2, I get it, it makes sense from a list gap perspective. However something that may not be taken into consideration is the average number of games played by each pick.

If we use pick 2 there is a very good chance that player goes on to play almost 200 games for us.

If we split pick 2 and get say 6 and 13, which is being mooted by numerous posters, on average those players only play
134 and 118 games respectively, which is still a decent career.

I'm not saying this should be the basis of whether we do or don't split pick 2 but it should be considered, the prospect of
200 games from FOS, Draper or Jagga is a very tantalising one.
View attachment 2099501

That's all good and well, but every draft is different. This draft in particular is highly unusual as there isn't that clear top 3 - 5 players that you get in most other drafts. In addition, this draft, by all reports, bats very deep in terms of quality players and different player types. There's probably close to 10 players that we could realistically consider taking at pick 2. I honestly can't remember another draft where this was the case.

 

[My Left Foote]

That's all good and well, but every draft is different. This draft in particular is highly unusual as there isn't that clear top 3 - 5 players that you get in most other drafts. In addition, this draft, by all reports, bats very deep in terms of quality players and different player types. There's probably close to 10 players that we could realistically consider taking at pick 2. I honestly can't remember another draft where this was the case.

That's a valid point, if we ended up with a pick < 5 there's a good chance that they could play 200 games given the evenness of the top 5. All I'm saying is the risk of getting a long term player increases the further we drop down the order and I hope this should be taken into consideration when contemplating splitting pick 2.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

That's a valid point, if we ended up with a pick < 5 there's a good chance that they could play 200 games given the evenness of the top 5. All I'm saying is the risk of getting a long term player increases the further we drop down the order and I hope this should be taken into consideration when contemplating splitting pick 2.

If we split pick 2 to get picks 6 and 13, then we are getting 2 of those 10 players that you can almost throw a blanket over instead of one.

Very different to last year, which was like most other years, where the selections were obvious. Reid was going at pick 1 and McKercher was going at pick 2. The table you listed is probably more reflective of a draft like this.

 

[Bashnek]

is there any talk around moving our f1 into this year?

Surely we can't be this bad for much longer, and as of next year we get 2 years of futures to play with if we're desperate to get back in.

 

[giantroo]

AFL Draft: Why North Melbourne could trade Pick 2 and the rival teams best placed for a deal

The strengthened draft hands of other clubs could be avenues for the Kangaroos to consider splitting their first pick.

www.zerohanger.com

 

[Better Loosen Up]

is there any talk around moving our f1 into this year?

Surely we can't be this bad for much longer, and as of next year we get 2 years of futures to play with if we're desperate to get back in.

I think there's a fair chance that even with moderate improvement next year (4 - 6 wins), we're still going to be bottom 3 and there's a highly touted key forward available that we probably don't want to be missing out on.

 

[lockheed]

is there any talk around moving our f1 into this year?

Surely we can't be this bad for much longer, and as of next year we get 2 years of futures to play with if we're desperate to get back in.

Adelaide had 8 1/2 wins this year and finished 15th. After this year, I think we'd all take 8 1/2 wins next year. So we're probably looking at a top 4 or 5 pick next year. Would we really want to trade that out?

 

[The Nostradamus]

is there any talk around moving our f1 into this year?

Surely we can't be this bad for much longer, and as of next year we get 2 years of futures to play with if we're desperate to get back in.

hope so (only have the 3 picks inside 40 and that pick 40 might go to swans for parker) but would need a top 8 pick this year imo at worst for it

that pick 6 is what we should be targeting, currently with gc but likely to change hands

 

[spurs]

An excellent performance that proved Hamish Davis has what it takes to make the step to finals footy and not just meet the level but thrive. Playing his typical high half forward role, his tank and work rate was a feature as was his ability to play at high pace with clean hands. He might have had even more than 4 goals in this game if he hadn't missed a couple of gettable opportunities, a reminder that his variable kicking technique is the one thing that might hold him back from shooting up into first round contention even with his late season surge in form.

And 21 disposals to go with 4 goals.

 

[Waynesworld]

Plays with more mongrel than 90% of our list. Also in betted shape than half of them.

Draft him and make him captain.

Funny - my first thoughts when I saw him was "four fried chickens and a coke"

 

[Junk yard]

Funny - my first thoughts when I saw him was "four fried chickens and a coke"

He's certainly got zero chance of being drafted in that shape.

 

[shinboner magic]

Where’s this Gerreyn talk of shooting into the top 15.
Is it another Bigfooty fav shooting up boards - don’t think the experts had him in the top 30.

 

[Disco Dew]

If we split i think we'll be going Trainor/Armstrong and then the Gman.

Make this ****ing happen

 

[BlueandWhiteinmyBlood]

I honestly don’t think we have enough top end established talent on the list still to be splitting pick 2 for anything outside the top 5 and top 12. Sheezel is the only one you can really set your watch too atm whilst Wardlaw and McKercher have shown a lot and are promising then Duursma the jury is still out. I’d honestly prefer to keep pick 2.

 

[Merlin007]

I honestly don’t think we have enough top end established talent on the list still to be splitting pick 2 for anything outside the top 5 and top 12. Sheezel is the only one you can really set your watch too atm whilst Wardlaw and McKercher have shown a lot and are promising then Duursma the jury is still out. I’d honestly prefer to keep pick 2.

Couldn't agree more - true, we need a KPF, small forwards etc, but the real hole in the list is the one left by Tarryn Thomas.

We truly need another quality mid with pick 2 - looking at the draft, it would seem there'll be a KPF talent at our second round

 

[R00StaR]

Yep I think it's the year to do it personally given it's pretty even at the top.
I'm usually sit and take pick 2 but getting one of Lalor/Smillie/Trainor/Armstrong/M Reid/Langford at 6 and picking up a key forward earlier out of Gerreyn/Shanahan/Whitlock at 13 would be incredible.
Then at pick 22 we could go either small forward Berry (if he slides), another key forward, an athletic 194cm plus defender like Tauru/O'Farrell or maybe a Cooper Hynes 190cm or Jack Ough if we don't take that earlier at 6.
Then use pick 40 (if we don't trade it for an experienced player) on a Byce (I don't know much about him myself), Ough, Greggo or Jacques type half back/wing.

Mate im the same, 99% of the time im quality over quantity. If somebody can assure me the GMan is there for our 2nd rounder then id say keep pick 2. Im just so sold he's the unit we've been waiting for that id split pick 2 to make sure it happened.

 

[R00StaR]

I'd be more than happy with any of Lalor/Trainor/Armstrong/Gerreyn/Shanahan/Berry.

For me GMan is a must

 

[BlueandWhiteinmyBlood]

Couldn't agree more - true, we need a KPF, small forwards etc, but the real hole in the list is the one left by Tarryn Thomas.

We truly need another quality mid with pick 2 - looking at the draft, it would seem there'll be a KPF talent at our second round

I honestly think for our window our best chance of a sure thing re a key forward is showing the competition a lot of improvement next year then trading our first for someone already established/up and coming. If we draft one I really think he will miss the Larkey window. We could of course always luck out with one later in the draft or a Maley/Comben but I won’t be holding my breath.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Couldn't agree more - true, we need a KPF, small forwards etc, but the real hole in the list is the one left by Tarryn Thomas.

We truly need another quality mid with pick 2 - looking at the draft, it would seem there'll be a KPF talent at our second round

I'm happy either way. I can see the merits of both staying and taking a quality versatile mid or splitting it for two 1sts.
The club might be thinking of Ludowyke or another key position prospect in next year's in the top 5 so taking whoever is there at pick 22 as a key forward could be the plan this year. We will see what happens.