Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[The Dingrel]

There have been glowing reports of Trainors performance in this game from other outlets, but the tale of the tape is a little more mixed. He had a couple of outstanding defensive moments, including a contested mark early and a tough ground ball win late, but also some other less impressive defensive efforts. A high proportion of his 26 disposals came from kick ins, and a number of his longer rebound 50s resulted in turnovers, although some of those can be at least partially blamed on poor aerial contests by the tall targets he kicked to.

From that vision the turnovers appear to be from long kicks to 50/50 contests. I don’t see any “brain fade” bad decision kicks inside D50 getting turned over, quite the opposite finds his man in space every time when kicks shorter. Appears a long kick of the ball, athletic, knows when to run off his man, and generate attack from defence. Probably a stretch at pick 1, but I don’t see us having that pick at season’s end, lets see how the rest of the champs and afl season unfold, but a lot to like about this kid and as safe a key position prospect as any.

 

[noobermensch]

From that vision the turnovers appear to be from long kicks to 50/50 contests. I don’t see any “brain fade” bad decision kicks inside D50 getting turned over, quite the opposite finds his man in space every time when kicks shorter. Appears a long kick of the ball, athletic, knows when to run off his man, and generate attack from defence. Probably a stretch at pick 1, but I don’t see us having that pick at season’s end, lets see how the rest of the champs and afl season unfold, but a lot to like about this kid and as safe a key position prospect as any.

There were a couple of pretty clear turnovers from medium length kicks early in the game. The passage of play at 1:35 in the video is both a pretty bad decision kicking to a single player surrounded by opponents, and a skill execution error. As a prospect though I'm not concerned about his disposal by foot, it was more a comment on that performance specifically.

I'm finding him to be a more difficult player to assess as a prospect the further the season goes. He's not a great 1v1 defender at this stage, and I'd want to see him take more intercept marks if that's his 1 wood. He does intercept from time to time for sure, but he's not dominant in that area right now. He is excellent at generating overlapping run and his disposal is typically strong.

Some similarities to Curtin from last years draft.

Others will disagree I'm sure, but I have him just outside of that top tier.

 

[William Caresser]

Slightly different perspective but I'd like to look at first round, outside player case studies. Prefacing this by saying I hope Michael Barlow and the club can develop Dylan Stephens

15

Dylan Stephens

Age

23

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

. But how did the Swans (and then us) not pick up on the flaws that currently exist is in his game? The hesitating, the panicking, the lack of right side competency, the lack of urgency/closing speed and appetite for the contest?

Even with his elite 2km times and the ability to link up and pick up 12 possessions in that last quarter, how was all that missed? I'm not saying this to denigrate the guy and I'm as hopeful as anyone that with high quality development and a shot of confidence things can really turn around. But how did the Swans recruiters miss all that and what can be learned from it? We need outside class but we sure don't want to use a first round pick on someone with those flaws. Why didn't the U-18 competitions expose them? Was he playing in such good sides, that he just got on the end of dominant inside work? Too much emphasis on the 2km time trial?

I'm interested in the views from guys who watch a lot of junior footy how this happened.

 

[noobermensch]

Slightly different perspective but I'd like to look at first round, outside player case studies. Prefacing this by saying I hope Michael Barlow and the club can develop Dylan Stephens. But how did the Swans (and then us) not pick up on the flaws that currently exist is in his game? The hesitating, the panicking, the lack of right side competency, the lack of urgency/closing speed and appetite for the contest?

Even with his elite 2km times and the ability to link up and pick up 12 possessions in that last quarter, how was all that missed? I'm not saying this to denigrate the guy and I'm as hopeful as anyone that with high quality development and a shot of confidence things can really turn around. But how did the Swans recruiters miss all that and what can be learned from it? We need outside class but we sure don't want to use a first round pick on someone with those flaws. Why didn't the U-18 competitions expose them? Was he playing in such good sides, that he just got on the end of dominant inside work? Too much emphasis on the 2km time trial?

I'm interested in the views from guys who watch a lot of junior footy how this happened.

I'll attempt to answer but there are probably people in a better position than me. Before I started my youtube channel my focus on the draft would wax and wane based on how involved Essendon was likely to be, and in 2019 we had no first round picks. I watched the Champs games and kept on top of it at a high level as I always do, but no more than that.

My memory is that Stephens was considered to be the best outside mid in the draft. Might have been named MVP for SA at the Champs? Either way, had a strong champs campaign. Played a lot of SANFL seniors for Norwood, so in general he put the runs on the board during his top age and was considered a safe pick.

Probably an unsatisfying answer is that sometimes you just get it wrong. A lot of footy is played between the ears, and kids respond differently to the step up to the elite AFL environment and the intensity/pace of footy at the AFL level. I also feel myself that outside mids are a riskier bet. If you can't win your own footy, then you need elite footy IQ to know where to run and how to anticipate play to put yourself in a position to be used. Sometimes outside mids can lack an appetite for the contest, and this can make them a liability in 1v1s, and this might not be exposed as much at junior levels.

I had those same concerns regarding Caleb Windsor in last years draft pool. He was very outside last year and had a low % of contested possessions, and yet he seems to be an outside mid that is going to work out fine for Melbourne. He's thrived with the step up to AFL level.

 

[trooroo4life]

Strong game from Smillie after a slow start in the opening quarter. He was the dominant force at stoppage throughout the game, regularly creating clean extractions for his team and helping Metro gain control of the territory battle. He showed how dangerous he can be front of center, snagging a goal for himself and having a hand in creating a number of other scoring opportunities for his team.

Every time I watch him I’m less and less impressed. I personally think his kicking is overrated too.

If we still end up with p1 (I don’t think we will) I’m still in the split camp.

 

[the big lebowski]

Is Smillie like a giant version of Tom Powell?

 

[GoRoos2023]

Whatever the case the fact we are putting another top top end mid in this group is awesome. Just wish it was a KPF.

Zane
McArch
Wardlaw
Sheez
Ldu
This kid

6 top 4 picks.

Unfortunately can’t use Will Phill in the above but he is coming along.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Whatever the case the fact we are putting another top top end mid in this group is awesome. Just wish it was a KPF.

Zane
McArch
Wardlaw
Sheez
Ldu
This kid

6 top 4 picks.

Unfortunately can’t use Will Phill in the above but he is coming along.

Looking forward to seeing how "This kid" goes in the champs

 

[noobermensch]

One of the leading key forward prospects in this years draft pool Jobe Shanahan kicked a bag of 5 goals for his Pioneers team as they came up just short against the Stingrays by the slimmest of margins.

 

[chubbspeterson]

Why does mostly everyone assume we are going to land Luke Trainor? I think some people might be in for a bit of a shock. With whatever pick we have, likely 1/2/3/4/, I would be gobsmacked if we used our first pick on him, of course it all depends what pick we have, this will be the key for everything, pick 1/2/ , a few clubs will come to us and ask, if we don't like their offer we choose whoever we have at number 1 or 2. Pick 3/4/ we take the best player on Will's whiteboard.

I think the fact that he's come out saying he supports us is a big factor in people wanting him, now I know he's a good player but I just wonder if he came out saying he supports Essendon would the majority say , no he's not that good, in other words, is what he said the main reason most people want him? As Spock would say, "fascinating"!

Agree. I love Luke because he's BFNAAK and would play for us for a decade but top 4 picks is where you get your star players that can turn games imo. That isn't really Luke imo and that's why I suspect he slides and some of those players like Draper/Moraes/Lalor/Faull/O'Farrell/Allan might rise up and get picked ahead of him by the end of the year.
It'll be an interesting watch on the rankings that's for sure and what recruiters are thinking.
Back of my mind I'm thinking we need to replace the class of TT so perhaps we don't trade down from pick 1-4 but the prospect is attractive if it gets us a couple of key positions and/or a classy wing or small forward.

 

[The Talent Scout]

I'm a little of the same opinion.

I really don't think a key back/third tall back is a high priority or something we should be outlaying top draft capital on.

I know Trainor can play as an intercepting back, he may be a third tall and is a good distributor from the back half, but so can a few others in the this pool.

If we have pick 5 or 6, it's a different discussion.

Comben has absolutely bailed out Brady from a list management perspective.

Trainor would have been a no brainer 12 months ago, but we now have one of the best u/23 defenders in the comp who is 200cm, athletic and is an elite intercept mark..

Comben/Dawson is a good long term pairing and then there's Logue as the third tall (whom I'm very interested to see function next to Comben) and Dawson as probably a depth type player.

We obviously need more in this regard long term, but I think a top 5 pick is probably overkill.


I think a young key forward is a much bigger priority. There's no natural fit in the draft at the moment.

I think a small forward is a much bigger priority. There's no natural fit in the draft at the moment imo.

IF we want an intercept defender, I'd almost prefer Travaglia to Trainor. They are different players obviously, different heights. But I feel an elite intercepting medium/tall who can play both ends is as good a fit for our list as another 194cm third tall defender at AFL level (That is what Trainor will likely be).

We may be able to get him with our second rounder.

I think our strategy this year should be around trying to get a 1-2 or additional end of first round picks via our F2 or some of our better depth players if that is what is required and take the best available, most versatile mid at our first.


We have a lot of midfielders at the moment also, but I have a gut feeling we might shed a few over the coming years and if we can add more versatility/points of differences there the better.

Good post Sphynx, I almost think its a moral that we trade our future 2nd rounder depending where we finish and don't split the pick, pick the best player with our first pick and our 2 second rounders {if another club does the trade with us, I wouldn't think that's a problem though} get a small forward and a key forward with them. Some players are going to go a lot higher than some expect in this draft and a few players are going to slide a bit more than where they were projected to go, as is the normal.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Strong game from Smillie after a slow start in the opening quarter. He was the dominant force at stoppage throughout the game, regularly creating clean extractions for his team and helping Metro gain control of the territory battle. He showed how dangerous he can be front of center, snagging a goal for himself and having a hand in creating a number of other scoring opportunities for his team.

Don't do it to us Noober. Now we're going to have to put up with more and more pages of "get Smilie"

 

[The Talent Scout]

Of the top tier midfielders:

O'Sullivan
1.Footy IQ -
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Smillle
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Smith
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Draper
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Lalor
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Moraes
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Next Tier Below:

Harvey Langford
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Taj Hotton
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Xavier Lindsay
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Tom Gross
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity ???
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills - inconsistent

Luke Urquhart
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity ???
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Cooper Hynes
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills ???

Cody Anderson
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity ???
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

good summary roos_fanatic08, your pretty much on the ball, Sid Drapers defensive intent isn't bad but yes I think it needs improving and Sam Lalor's aerobic capacity reminds me of LDU, now remember that when Luke joined us he was a pure midfielder and it took him a while to get there as a midfielder at AFL level but then his body shape changed as a process so in Mr Lalor's case I think it will be fine.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

good summary roos_fanatic08, your pretty much on the ball, Sid Drapers defensive intent isn't bad but yes I think it needs improving and Sam Lalor's aerobic capacity reminds me of LDU, now remember that when Luke joined us he was a pure midfielder and it took him a while to get there as a midfielder at AFL level but then his body shape changed as a process so in Mr Lalor's case I think it will be fine.

Thanks mate. The crosses aren't in concrete, I'd safely anticipate that all of the above could improve those aspects of their game. Particularly, Smillie & Lalor with their running capacity.

 

[Sphynx]

Is Smillie like a giant version of Tom Powell?

Not a bad analogy at all.

Tom is a better kick though.

 

[The Dingrel]

Every time I watch him I’m less and less impressed. I personally think his kicking is overrated too.

If we still end up with p1 (I don’t think we will) I’m still in the split camp.

There is still time…..makes the rest of the national champs all the more intriguing. Would only take 1 game for he, FO’S or Lalor to come in and really assert themselves as #1 in my view. All the better for us is if they all do as I don’t see us picking at #1. While he’s had good games, from the vision I’ve seen Smith isn’t a contender….kind of reminds me of the Tstatas conversation in a lot of ways, racks them up but without damage.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Not a bad analogy at all.

Tom is a better kick though.

Yes, and a better handballer.

 

[R00StaR]

Yes, and a better handballer.

Very few are better handballers than Powell.

 

[The Talent Scout]

There is still time…..makes the rest of the national champs all the more intriguing. Would only take 1 game for he, FO’S or Lalor to come in and really assert themselves as #1 in my view. All the better for us is if they all do as I don’t see us picking at #1. While he’s had good games, from the vision I’ve seen Smith isn’t a contender….kind of reminds me of the Tstatas conversation in a lot of ways, racks them up but without damage.

You know I've been waiting for someone to say this, the comparison isn't that far off, Elijah has that burst of speed where Jagga is like the energiser bunny, he just keeps going! At times they both throw in some pretty average kicks but the rest of the time their kicking is ok. Those kicks are usually under pressure but sometimes 3/4 years at a AFL club coaches will sought that out.

 

[R00StaR]

good summary roos_fanatic08, your pretty much on the ball, Sid Drapers defensive intent isn't bad but yes I think it needs improving and Sam Lalor's aerobic capacity reminds me of LDU, now remember that when Luke joined us he was a pure midfielder and it took him a while to get there as a midfielder at AFL level but then his body shape changed as a process so in Mr Lalor's case I think it will be fine.

Interested to know who you'd liken Lalor to.

Somebody mentioned De Goey, which grabbed my attention. Just on Lalor's highlights that where posted, it seemed like he might have a monster boot on him. I was a bit surprised how far many kicks went given the perceived effort. Then maybe it was a mic on super sensitive but the flush sound of those kicks also got my attention.

 

[muttley45]

Are we any chance of getting Luke Trainor ?

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

Of the top tier midfielders:

O'Sullivan
1.Footy IQ -
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Smillle
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Smith
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Draper
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Lalor
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Moraes
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Next Tier Below:

Harvey Langford
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Taj Hotton
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Xavier Lindsay
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Tom Gross
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity ???
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills - inconsistent

Luke Urquhart
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity ???
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

Cooper Hynes
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills ???

Cody Anderson
1.Footy IQ
2.Aeribic capacity ???
3.Ability to win 50/50s
4.Defensive intent
5.Skills

This makes it clear - thank you!

 

[The acurate one]

I think this board is a bit harsh on Smillie. There's a lot of focus on what he isn't, and perhaps not enough appreciation for the offensive impact that he is having in the Coates league.

That said, I wouldn't mind FOS being the pick. I think he has the highest floor in the draft, and barring injury is an incredibly safe bet to be a 200+ game gem. He fits in with the types we have very well, and I've mentioned it before in this thread but FOS, Sheezel, and McKercher is an outrageous combination of class and running power that we'd be combining in the middle.

We're putting the final touches on our next premiership midfield and taking FOS feels like such a layup in this situation, compared to the risk that comes with Smillie.

Going back to Sheezel and McKercher, Rawlings and Clayton rated them both incredibly highly, which I think suggests they made lean towards FOS here.

I don't think many realised how huge of a call taking Sheezel over Wardlaw was. It ended up not mattering, since thanks to JHF we took both, but it does give some insight into what we're looking for at the top of the order. I think a healthy Wardlaw was easily a better prospect than Smillie, and FOS against Sheezel is a fun debate that I'll leave for those who were higher on Sheezel at the time.

Anyways, a quick google search shows Twomey having Wardlaw ahead of Sheezel back in July of 2022, and we may see history repeat with us flipping the top of the order yet again.

Yes all true bit I did laugh when reading some negative words on Smillie and then seeing the poster having him go at pick 2 .

Like a few I doubt we get pick 1 now anyways

 

[EDFL follower]

Interested to know who you'd liken Lalor to.

Somebody mentioned De Goey, which grabbed my attention. Just on Lalor's highlights that where posted, it seemed like he might have a monster boot on him. I was a bit surprised how far many kicks went given the perceived effort. Then maybe it was a mic on super sensitive but the flush sound of those kicks also got my attention.

I watched Lalor play a school game earlier in the season. He played mid first half then full forward second half and finished with 7 goals. Reminded me completely of Dusty the way he played especially up forward.

 

[LB2Snake]

I watched Lalor play a school game earlier in the season. He played mid first half then full forward second half and finished with 7 goals. Reminded me completely of Dusty the way he played especially up forward.

What school footy was it? Is he at an APS school?