Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[FootySmartSimpson]

Just evaluating his strengths and weaknesses and I think there are too many red flags with his profile.

The biggest issue is that he doesn't use his size to his advantage, which has been well reported around here. Not only is he not a big contested player, he doesn't have the speed or explosiveness to play as an outside first receiver at AFL level. He has time at Under 18's level to receive on the outside and make decisions with the space he gets, but he's not getting the same space and time at AFL level.

Vertical which combined with 20m sprint times forms a good perspective of the explosive potential in a prospect. Smillie's vertical is 73cm and his 20m time is 3.093. His yo-yo score is ok at 720, but there really isn't an athletic point of difference for him. He won't be one of those players that can take it from inside to outside like LDU, he doesn't have the contested ability of a Cripps and I think he's too slow to play as an outside type at AFL level, which is what he's doing best this year at Under 18's level. He's already a solid boy too at 194cm and 95kg, so he's playing at basically his AFL playing weight.

The main traits I see as his strong points are his kicking, his cleanliness below his knees and he spreads well from the contest. The issue with this is if we want these traits in a prospect, I think Jagga Smith's strengths are these exact same things and he's better at them than Smillie. Jagga also has a great endurance base and is quicker than Smillie (2.990 20m) so he can legitimately be an outside receiver at AFL level.

Jagga has probably the best footy IQ in this draft along with Murphy Reid. Basically, if Smillie was 180cm, he wouldn't go top 30, if Jagga was 194cm, he'd go #1.

We're in a pretty awkward spot if Richmond take FOS, which I think they do. Smith is a great prospect, but I don't think he fits our midfield mix.

Trade down. 50/50 chance we have the spoon. If that is the case, we should trade for max value.

 

[RossHenshaw]

Were you the guy who wanted Tsatas over Wardlaw?

Langford will not make it past pick 3 (4 if we include Ashcroft).

He’s also the play Finbar man

 

[Sphynx]

Trade down. 50/50 chance we have the spoon. If that is the case, we should trade for max value.

Who’s trading up?

Richmond?

 

[Luke72]

Hawks’ incredible run has to come to an end at some stage. We actually match up with them pretty well.

I’d love it if we could halt their current momentum

 

[archereleven]

Trade down. 50/50 chance we have the spoon. If that is the case, we should trade for max value.

I simply can't fathom picking another top 5 mid with so many holes in the list...
I would like to trade down and pick all kpp and River Stevens.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Yes I have in fact if you go back in this thread I was the first to point him out from the first champs game

First to point him out? You are having a laugh aren’t you. After two games into the Coates league season I said he’d be pushing top 10 if not top 5.

 

[Ura]

Langford looks ok. My issue with the top end of this draft is they all have holes in their game. Though Ashcroft has to be the safest pick currently.

Smith unsure of damage. Rarely see him kick further then 30 meters and doesnt hit the scoreboard.

FOS looked amazingly talented last year and this year have not seen anything that makes him look like a first rounder.

Smilie at 194cm cant take contested marks and just doesnt seem to have any aggression.

Trainor can be spotty on disposal and slightly undersized for a #1 defender - may be able to be a forward

Reid is the best disposal out of them all but also seems to lack aggression and is single geared

Langford for me disposal is questioinable currently and seems single geared

All of these things could be developed honestly and if develop they all have assets to move forward. Only thing i would suggest for what its worth for us is one of our biggest issue is kicking into the 50 and hitting targets. LDU, Warlord, Jy and Powell dont hit people up. Kerch and Sheez can but drafting elite kick may be our best move.

 

[Sphynx]

Langford looks ok. My issue with the top end of this draft is they all have holes in their game. Though Ashcroft has to be the safest pick currently.

Smith unsure of damage. Rarely see him kick further then 30 meters and doesnt hit the scoreboard.

FOS looked amazingly talented last year and this year have not seen anything that makes him look like a first rounder.

Smilie at 194cm cant take contested marks and just doesnt seem to have any aggression.

Trainor can be spotty on disposal and slightly undersized for a #1 defender - may be able to be a forward

Reid is the best disposal out of them all but also seems to lack aggression and is single geared

Langford for me disposal is questioinable currently and seems single geared

All of these things could be developed honestly and if develop they all have assets to move forward. Only thing i would suggest for what its worth for us is one of our biggest issue is kicking into the 50 and hitting targets. LDU, Warlord, Jy and Powell dont hit people up. Kerch and Sheez can but drafting elite kick may be our best move.

You’ve left out Draper.

 

[Ura]

You’ve left out Draper.

I do love draper. from last game I saw i thought his disposal was average to poor handpasses more then kicks

 

[The Nostradamus]

First to point him out? You are having a laugh aren’t you. After two games into the Coates league season I said he’d be pushing top 10 if not top 5.

You did not

did a search in this thread for Langford no surprise I was one of the first to call him out

You did mention him in passing a week before tbf

Main point being is yes I’ve seen him and no despite him being good he isn’t a top 3 pick

 

[Sphynx]

I do love draper. from last game I saw i thought his disposal was average to poor handpasses more then kicks

FOS is definitely the best list fit of the top picks.

Smith probably the safest pick, not the best fit though. I don’t know how Simpkin, Phillips, Powell and Smith all work long term.

Langford is a bit of a POD, but probably similar to Tom Powell in a very general role way.

Smillie would be an ideal POD and the slam drunk pick if he was a Cripps style 6”5 contested beast, but he’s not. He’s more Brodie Kemp than Cripps.

Trainor at 2? No.

Reid at 2? No.

Draper is probably the one player other than FOS that provides a POD that you definitely can’t have enough of, that’s foot speed around stoppage. I hate that he’s SA and that he’s managed by Williams, but he arguably makes the most sense for us outside of FOS.

Everyone keeps saying “trade back, trade back, trade back”. But to ****ing who? And you realize you are going to be eating a shit sandwich of a deal in this draft? I.e Pick 2 for 12 and 14 or something.

 

[archereleven]

Anyone got a summary of how the kids went playing VFL over the weekend?

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sphynx]

Anyone got a summary of how the kids went playing VFL over the weekend?

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Warburton: 12 disposals
Joel Cochran: 16 disposals, 5 marks
Travaglia - 15 disposals, 5 tackles
Shanahan - 11 disposals, 2 goals, 7 marks
Lombard - 13 disposals, 3 score involvements
Ashcroft - 35 disposals, 1 goal , 5 tackles
Jagga Smith - 22 disposals, 7 clearances
FOS: 11 disposals, 2 goals
Lennox Hofman: 15 disposals, 5 marks
Adrian Cole - 8 disposals, 3 tackles.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Langford looks ok. My issue with the top end of this draft is they all have holes in their game. Though Ashcroft has to be the safest pick currently.

Smith unsure of damage. Rarely see him kick further then 30 meters and doesnt hit the scoreboard.

FOS looked amazingly talented last year and this year have not seen anything that makes him look like a first rounder.

Smilie at 194cm cant take contested marks and just doesnt seem to have any aggression.

Trainor can be spotty on disposal and slightly undersized for a #1 defender - may be able to be a forward

Reid is the best disposal out of them all but also seems to lack aggression and is single geared

Langford for me disposal is questioinable currently and seems single geared

All of these things could be developed honestly and if develop they all have assets to move forward. Only thing i would suggest for what its worth for us is one of our biggest issue is kicking into the 50 and hitting targets. LDU, Warlord, Jy and Powell dont hit people up. Kerch and Sheez can but drafting elite kick may be our best move.

I reckon that’s a pretty fair assessment and why the draft is considered to be so even across the board. Going to be some big booms and big busts from this top 10-15 imo.

I’m happy I’m not making the decision in pick 2, bloody tough decision to make there.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Ura]

FOS is definitely the best list fit of the top picks.

Smith probably the safest pick, not the best fit though. I don’t know how Simpkin, Phillips, Powell and Smith all work long term.

Langford is a bit of a POD, but probably similar to Tom Powell in a way.

Smillie would be an ideal POD and the slam drunk pick if he was a Cripps style 6”5 contested beast, but he’s not. He’s more Brodie Kemp than Cripps.

Trainor at 2? No.

Reid at 2? No.

Draper is probably the one player other than FOS that provides a POD that you definitely can’t have enough of, that’s foot speed around stoppage. I hate that he’s SA and that he’s managed by Williams, but he arguably makes the most sense for us outside of FOS.

Everyone keeps saying “trade back, trade back, trade back”. But to ****ing who? And you realize you are going to be eating a shit sandwich of a deal in this draft? I.e Pick 2 for 12 and 14 or something.

Agree on that. For me at 2 I have Draper, Smilie and FOS. With FOS hard to use pick 2 on a player that hasnt played best footy for 12 months. That being said aware that he could be the best player in this draft in his rookie year.

Fair call on Smilliie. I think he has biggest ceiling in draft only due to size and athleticism at that size.

Honestly no great trade back options and everyone knows this is a trade back draft. Market is better.

As i see it our options to trade back would be..
Gold coast trying to get above Lombard pick. Maybe 7 and 20?
Richmond if they get a haul of draft picks for players and want a 1-2 in the draft. Could be something similar.
Adelaide if they love Draper could offer 4 and 26 for 2.

Not sure who else could make a reasonable offer currently

 

[Sphynx]

I reckon that’s a pretty fair assessment and why the draft is considered to be so even across the board. Going to be some big booms and big busts from this top 10-15 imo.

I’m happy I’m not making the decision in pick 2, bloody tough decision to make there.

I just think FOS is a pick for different reasons. It’s also a list balance/needs picks and I’m comfortable even if there are better players taken after him in roles we don’t need more of.

The spanner is if he is taken at #1, I stand by the comment though, it’s going to take absolute balls of steel for Richmond to do it after his year to date.

 

[cybercrab]

Would Armstrong be a reach at 2?

 

[Sphynx]

Agree on that. For me at 2 I have Draper, Smilie and FOS. With FOS hard to use pick 2 on a player that hasnt played best footy for 12 months. That being said aware that he could be the best player in this draft in his rookie year.

Fair call on Smilliie. I think he has biggest ceiling in draft only due to size and athleticism at that size.

Honestly no great trade back options and everyone knows this is a trade back draft. Market is better.

As i see it our options to trade back would be..
Gold coast trying to get above Lombard pick. Maybe 7 and 20?
Richmond if they get a haul of draft picks for players and want a 1-2 in the draft. Could be something similar.
Adelaide if they love Draper could offer 4 and 26 for 2.

Not sure who else could make a reasonable offer currently

Richmond if they would like to do a Sheezel/Wardlaw style draft and take FOS and Jagga.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

FOS is definitely the best list fit of the top picks.

Smith probably the safest pick, not the best fit though. I don’t know how Simpkin, Phillips, Powell and Smith all work long term.

Langford is a bit of a POD, but probably similar to Tom Powell in a very general role way.

Smillie would be an ideal POD and the slam drunk pick if he was a Cripps style 6”5 contested beast, but he’s not. He’s more Brodie Kemp than Cripps.

Trainor at 2? No.

Reid at 2? No.

Draper is probably the one player other than FOS that provides a POD that you definitely can’t have enough of, that’s foot speed around stoppage. I hate that he’s SA and that he’s managed by Williams, but he arguably makes the most sense for us outside of FOS.

Everyone keeps saying “trade back, trade back, trade back”. But to ****ing who? And you realize you are going to be eating a shit sandwich of a deal in this draft? I.e Pick 2 for 12 and 14 or something.

Still a lot to play out there, Richmond might be one to watch if they end up getting a draft bounty for the likes of Baker/Rioli ect.

Because of the evenness of the draft I’ve heard a few clubs might look to trade capital out into next years drafts (Freo if they don’t get Bolton) while others want to go hard at this draft.

I could see Adelaide making a play for 2 if Draper is still there but I’m not sure they be keen on moving their first & 2nd in this years draft.

Going to be really interesting how teams play it with Tassie on the horizon.

 

[ToxicMegaPunts]

Smillie, FOS, Ashcroft, Jagga and Draper all right up there on par with kerch

Murphy Reid also

Lalor but more a utility

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Would Armstrong be a reach at 2?

I really rate him, but it would a reach imo, just doesn’t quite have the body of work for a key forward to be pulling the trigger with a top 5 pick. In saying that, if we decided to take that risk I’d back the club in 100%.

 

[Pagans Paddock99]

Anyone got a summary of how the kids went playing VFL over the weekend?

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

FOS had 12 possessions and Jagga had 24 in Richmond VFL side…


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[archereleven]

Still a lot to play out there, Richmond might be one to watch if they end up getting a draft bounty for the likes of Baker/Rioli ect.

Because of the evenness of the draft I’ve heard a few clubs might look to trade capital out into next years drafts (Freo if they don’t get Bolton) while others want to go hard at this draft.

I could see Adelaide making a play for 2 if Draper is still there but I’m not sure they be keen on moving their first & 2nd in this years draft.

Going to be really interesting how teams play it with Tassie on the horizon.

I'm pretty confident Adelaide will be into Draper. They need quality mids, and it will be mighty embarrassing for them if Sid turns out to be the best kid in the draft.

2 for 4, f2 is doable.

Maybe we could package up 2 x f2 for a mid 1st?

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[archereleven]

Warburton: 12 disposals
Joel Cochran: 16 disposals, 5 marks
Travaglia - 15 disposals, 5 tackles
Shanahan - 11 disposals, 2 goals, 7 marks
Lombard - 13 disposals, 3 score involvements
Ashcroft - 35 disposals, 1 goal , 5 tackles
Jagga Smith - 22 disposals, 7 clearances
FOS: 11 disposals, 2 goals
Lennox Hofman: 15 disposals, 5 marks
Adrian Cole - 8 disposals, 3 tackles.

Shanahan looks to be putting a good body of work together in the VFL.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app