Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[NMFC TID]

Not sure if anyone's posted this already, but Kayle comes across as a grounded guy. Also, 11 clubs spoke to him at the combine, incl. Hawthorn and Collingwood.
Barracked for Hawks as a kid.

His old boy was on their list for a bit. Never played

 

[Passmore]

Best genuine KPF in the Comp. 600+ goal career.

What happened? It was 800+ a while back....he retiring early?

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[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Aka you want FOS

No. FOS just doesn’t find enough of the ball for me. He’s probably the least preferred on our board. Draper has the most hype. I think Jagga is the safest bet.

 

[DuckYeah]

What happened? It was 800+ a while back....he retiring early?

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Typo. 800+

 

[Lomas]

Ok keep pick 2. I don't want to trade 2 or 3 picks for pick 2 anyway.
I think you want to trade it because you could probably get Tauru at pick 6 to 10, so you don't want to use pick 2 on him.
I'd be happy to take 7 picks and trade pick 23 for a future pick.

I’m so happy I get to watch these negotiations in real time.

 

[DuckYeah]

Ok keep pick 2. I don't want to trade 2 or 3 picks for pick 2 anyway.
I think you want to trade it because you could probably get Tauru at pick 6 to 10, so you don't want to use pick 2 on him.
I'd be happy to take 7 picks and trade pick 23 for a future pick.

Good, grab your save our skins tin, your squeegee and **** off back down Victoria st.

 

[Nutjob]

Clubs didn't reach for Walter, Darcy, or JUH because they didn't have to pay full whack with a top 3 pick. Also, they were not bottom of the ladder teams having to make precious use of a top end pick to rebuild a weak list. It's really not reaching when you are a team in contention that gets to use a bunch of third round picks (with 20% discount) to match a top 3 bid.

Nothing to do with the discussion. Regardless of what you’re saying you shouldn’t reach for talls.


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[The Filth Wizard]

Feels like we’ll trade the F1 more than 2, reckon one of that FOS/Draper/Lalor trio is the cherry on top of our midfield and we were active in shopping it during trade week. We don’t have many list spots so it needs to be a good pick but I can see Richmond seeing as much value spreading this rebuild over two drafts and that F1 will be a nice addition to the likely pick 1 in 2025. Maybe seek 10/11 if Tauru is still on the board and if we can get something in the late teens to twenties with it even better. Add Tauru and a high rated KPP to one of those top mids and it’s another great draft for us. I think it’s the sort of thing that might be done on the night though. We can still be very active in next years window with free agency and future trades.

 

[Nutjob]

You're confirming my point........clubs DO reach for whoever is considered the #1 key forward in any draft. Rarely if ever do they end up being the best player in the draft, BUT they don't grow on trees, and if you want the best key forward you typically have to pay up.

It rarely happens and when it does, it generally backfires. No chance it happens in this draft.


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[The Dingrel]

3 out of the 4 are academy / father-son. Is that the pattern?

still require a bid from another club to go that high in the draft.

 

[My Left Foote]

Feels like we’ll trade the F1 more than 2, reckon one of that FOS/Draper/Lalor trio is the cherry on top of our midfield and we were active in shopping it during trade week. We don’t have many list spots so it needs to be a good pick but I can see Richmond seeing as much value spreading this rebuild over two drafts and that F1 will be a nice addition to the likely pick 1 in 2025. Maybe seek 10/11 if Tauru is still on the board and if we can get something in the late teens to twenties with it even better. Add Tauru and a high rated KPP to one of those top mids and it’s another great draft for us. I think it’s the sort of thing that might be done on the night though. We can still be very active in next years window with free agency and future trades.

I think you could be on to something…

 

[DuckYeah]

Feels like we’ll trade the F1 more than 2, reckon one of that FOS/Draper/Lalor trio is the cherry on top of our midfield and we were active in shopping it during trade week. We don’t have many list spots so it needs to be a good pick but I can see Richmond seeing as much value spreading this rebuild over two drafts and that F1 will be a nice addition to the likely pick 1 in 2025. Maybe seek 10/11 if Tauru is still on the board and if we can get something in the late teens to twenties with it even better. Add Tauru and a high rated KPP to one of those top mids and it’s another great draft for us. I think it’s the sort of thing that might be done on the night though. We can still be very active in next years window with free agency and future trades.

I did say that picks swapping will be when we are on the clock. Should be an interesting watch to be honest.

 

[LB2Snake]

Not sure if anyone's posted this already, but Kayle comes across as a grounded guy. Also, 11 clubs spoke to him at the combine, incl. Hawthorn and Collingwood.
Barracked for Hawks as a kid.

Love that he has a basketball background. Commentators will keep that under wraps though.

 

[Hotham FC]

If the end goal is Tauru, the general consensus is pick 2 is too far a reach. If we pick swap exclusively with the club directly following our pick and do this 2-3 times, we should improve our later draft hand and pounce on Tauru when the time is right.

A previous poster mentioned our first deal should be with Carlton who want a mid (2 for 3 & 39). We then deal with Adelaide, who you think are keen on Draper (3 & 39 for 4 & F2). Next up Melbourne. If Brady can get a nudge, nudge, wink, wink from them that they are going midfielder also, we slide again (4 & one or two F2s for 5 and ???).

The cycle stops when we’re confident the next pick comes for Tauru. It may be before the Melbourne pick at 5 but suddenly we have extra currency to trade back into this draft and add another pick in the late teens or early 20s and still retain F1.

 

[Kangas_11]

One thing that does work in our favour with the Richmond deal is their absolute dearth of young elite talent.

A quick look at their u23s and the only name that could be argued as a potentially a grade talent is Gibcus.

The rest is a bit of a wasteland tbh, so the appeal of getting picks 1 and 2 would be really strong for them.

I still don't think we'll get picks 6 + 10/11, but I think a reasonable deal for all parties would be 2 + F2 for 6 + 18 + 23.

 

[ferball]

Don’t mind that.

I meant 6 and 11 not 10 and 11.

 

[DuckYeah]

If the end goal is Tauru, the general consensus is pick 2 is too far a reach. If we pick swap exclusively with the club directly following our pick and do this 2-3 times, we should improve our later draft hand and pounce on Tauru when the time is right.

A previous poster mentioned our first deal should be with Carlton who want a mid (2 for 3 & 39). We then deal with Adelaide, who you think are keen on Draper (3 & 39 for 4 & F2). Next up Melbourne. If Brady can get a nudge, nudge, wink, wink from them that they are going midfielder also, we slide again (4 & one or two F2s for 5 and ???).

The cycle stops when we’re confident the next pick comes for Tauru. It may be before the Melbourne pick at 5 but suddenly we have extra currency to trade back into this draft and add another pick in the late teens or early 20s and still retain F1.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Clubs didn’t reach for Walter, Darcy or JUH. The jury is out on Cadman. He has hardly set the world on fire. Who would you rather Cadman or Sheezel?

This draft is stacked at the top end with mids. It would be a massive reach and risk to use pick 2 on a tall. Richmond won’t do it.


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Have to agree, if the tigers got pick 2, they are teaming up their elite midfield with a one two punch, and have the CHOICE on who to get. You know I've heard the reasons why teams won't do it, I've heard why they can't do it, but what if one of the teams did do it? For all the logic and the reasoning from some opposition supporters and some of us, it surprise's me that they are completely hooked on the "even draft" phrase, let me spin it another way, if professional's in our sport {list managers & recruiters & the coach of AFL clubs all feel the same way with the even "draft phrase", then why do you think Carlton did it?
According to some of the people, they are crazy / silly and have no idea, but you know what, there are two things missing here, one they know what they are doing and second, they are professional's. Someone will try and justify what Carlton did because its so illogical in an even draft to do something like that, that the answer must lie elsewhere. Picks 12 and 14 are in that sweet spot that so many teams were trying to trade up to {pick 13, anyone remember that pick?} Yeah well guess what, they dropped kick those picks into the river to get one of the elite midfielders of their choosing at pick 3, seriously Carlton couldn't move fast enough to get to pick 3 and Richmond have a swathe of picks so upgrading is even a bigger certainty because they will have some other picks to fall back on. My small table below, may help.
pick #1 elite
pick #2 elite
pick #3 elite
pick #4 elite
pick #5 elite
pick #6 elite

pick #7 very good
pick #8 very good
pick #9 very good
pick #10 very good
and so on to around pick #18

From around pick #19 onwards good

For recruiters and list managers it won't be all about picks, it will be about the players in question and where they think they may fall, this draft will be about three things, intel, decisions and confidence.

 

[shazzabee]

I could see us doing 2 for 6 + 18, then F1st for 11 from Richmond. With their F2 coming back. I think that’s a more realistic value than what we’d like to think we’d get and 2 F2’s could be very valuable next year with a bunch of teams needing higher picks to get academy/father sons with the new point index. I think we would end swapping it back for a decent first rounder.

 

[ChopChopDigDig]

I could see us doing 2 for 6 + 18, then F1st for 11 from Richmond. With their F2 coming back. I think that’s a more realistic value than what we’d like to think we’d get and 2 F2’s could be very valuable next year with a bunch of teams needing higher picks to get academy/father sons with the new point index. I think we would end swapping it back for a decent first rounder.

I’d keep 2 and get the best possible mid, then trade out F1 for tigs 10 + F2 and get the best possible KPF.

I know that’s overs for our F1, but one more year in the system of a KPF is worth it, and 10 + say 20 is not a bad hand next year as we rise up the ladder.

 

[King Hansen]

Just had a look at the 2018 "super draft".
In the top 30 picks, there are:

8 x A graders
11 x B graders
11 x average players / busts

And that's in a "super" draft.

 

[ferball]

Just had a look at the 2018 "super draft".
In the top 30 picks, there are:

8 x A graders
11 x B graders
11 x average players / busts

And that's in a "super" draft.

Where is TT in that?

 

[King Hansen]

Where is TT in that?

Who cares? It's just a ball park/rough gage.

(Just took playing ability into account so I think I said A grader, did it last night and can't remember tbh).

 

[A Bit Dusty]

G'day Kangas I hope it's ok to jump in here with my thoughts as a Tigers supporter.

Personally, I think we should NOT chase pick 2 from North. The top 7-8 picks seem to be very even, and I don't think it's worth trading multiple picks to gain 4 spots and probably lose pick 11 as well especially seeing as we have such early picks in 1,6,10 &11.
I think we will use 6 of the 8 picks in the draft and the other 2 try for future 1st's from teams like Sydney/Geelong.
Reading through this thread it looks like you guys are after similar players to us and in all honesty if we did help North split picks, it would hinder us in getting the players we need.

I'm hoping we can get the following:

Pick 1: Langford
Pick 6: Lalor
Pick 10: Armstrong
Pick 11: Travaglia/Tauru

 

[ferball]

Who cares? It's just a ball park/rough gage.

(Just took playing ability into account so I think I said A grader, did it last night and can't remember tbh).

Fair enough.

I don't really get a grade vs b grade cos often players move between categories depending on someone's opinion of that player not necessarily their actual performances.

But if a B grader is a player worth 7/10 that's alot of good to excellent players in that top 30. Nearly 2 in every 3. That seems high for a draft to me.