Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Bletch]

One thing I will say is … IF we did select FOS at 3.

It would be the third year in a row we are selecting a player mostly on the back of their underage form - albeit a very expensive player on this occasion.

2023 - FOS?
2023 - Moir
2022 - Lemmey

Could prob add:
2019 - Kemp
2020 - Carroll

 

[LemmingMaster]

On the BF phantom draft, someone bid on Ben Campo 3/4 picks before our second round pick. It would be nice to move ahead of that selection and select a player like Urquhart which is an explosive stoppage player that gains 10m or so from a pack and can also kick it long. (He does have some warts on his kicking ability and durability, but for a pick that late, all players have a few issues)

Hopefully on draft night we're either looking to move up or nobody bids on Campo that early.

 

[Arr0w]

On the BF phantom draft, someone bid on Ben Campo 3/4 picks before our second round pick. It would be nice to move ahead of that selection and select a player like Urquhart which is an explosive stoppage player that gains 10m or so from a pack and can also kick it long. (He does have some warts on his kicking ability and durability, but for a pick that late, all players have a few issues)

Hopefully on draft night we're either looking to move up or nobody bids on Campo that early.

A couple of nice KPDs in that range too

 

[Stamos]

On the BF phantom draft, someone bid on Ben Campo 3/4 picks before our second round pick. It would be nice to move ahead of that selection and select a player like Urquhart which is an explosive stoppage player that gains 10m or so from a pack and can also kick it long. (He does have some warts on his kicking ability and durability, but for a pick that late, all players have a few issues)

Hopefully on draft night we're either looking to move up or nobody bids on Campo that early.

I think it's going to be pretty hard to move up, given our lack of currency.
More likely would be that if a bid comes prior to 38, we trade out for F2, and then try to get back in in the 40s.

 

[marcmurphy3]

One thing I will say is … IF we did select FOS at 3.

It would be the third year in a row we are selecting a player mostly on the back of their underage form - albeit a very expensive player on this occasion.

2023 - FOS?
2023 - Moir
2022 - Lemmey

Historically guys who improve throughout their top age year and peak towards the end of the season have a much better hit rate than guys who dominate their underage year and don't go on with it.

That said, I think there is a difference between those that struggle with injury throughout their top age campaign (Moir) vs those that simply don't progress (Lemmey).

Big question for me is which of those buckets does FOS fit in. I know he was impacted by injury this year but how much? If this year was FOS at 90% then I have concerns. If this was him at 50% then that's a different story.

Also worth noting that guys like Draper and Lalor also had their own injury issues but showed more.

 

[noobermensch]

We're on the final stretch run with the National Draft only a couple of weeks away. Just like last season I'll be producing a series of full season highlights videos for the top prospects, and first up is Sid the kid, the SANFL Sensation Sid Draper.

 

[GT619]

Historically guys who improve throughout their top age year and peak towards the end of the season have a much better hit rate than guys who dominate their underage year and don't go on with it.

That said, I think there is a difference between those that struggle with injury throughout their top age campaign (Moir) vs those that simply don't progress (Lemmey).

Big question for me is which of those buckets does FOS fit in. I know he was impacted by injury this year but how much? If this year was FOS at 90% then I have concerns. If this was him at 50% then that's a different story.

Also worth noting that guys like Draper and Lalor also had their own injury issues but showed more.

both played through it which questions fos mental toughness

 

[marcmurphy3]

I think it's going to be pretty hard to move up, given our lack of currency.
More likely would be that if a bid comes prior to 38, we trade out for F2, and then try to get back in in the 40s.

Only option I can see is we could package 38 with some later picks for 34 (from the Lions) once draft night starts, if we think that'll make a difference.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

A clear trend has already emerged in the poll on where people stand…more than half the voters think we should take Jagga.

Small sample and early days JR, but would take a massive swing to change this trend.

I was referring to the fact that basically the same conversation (with the same people making the same cases) has been going on here for about a month and will no doubt continue for the next two weeks.

 

[Stamos]

Only option I can see is we could package 38 with some later picks for 34 (from the Lions) once draft night starts, if we think that'll make a difference.

We can only make a trade up for the current pick, otherwise someone might just bid anyway and it will be wasted.
So we can't trade with the Lions, their earlier picks will be wiped (or traded down) early on.

 

[Coona Blues]

A couple of nice KPDs in that range too

Austin made no secret of the fact that we wanted to draft a key defender (at this pick)
There are a myriad of options around the mark of our second pick.

Even once touted top 5 Trainor may slip this far due to concussion concerns.
Matt Whitlock could last this long as well as a defensive regarded swingman.
James Barrat is a top line interceptor who may be considered. KPD.
Noah Mraz has his fans after an injury punctuated season.
Harry O’Farrell again had plenty of injury downtime and has been linked to us through the family connection.
My personal favourite WA All Australian Clancy Dennis should also be in consideration and we have certainly spoken to him.
Saints NGA boys Hofmann and Cole.
SA swingmen Nicholls and West probably are later to rookie, like Key defender Jacob Sheean.

It is absolutely the year to pick up a key defender (or 2)

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

We're on the final stretch run with the National Draft only a couple of weeks away. Just like last season I'll be producing a series of full season highlights videos for the top prospects, and first up is Sid the kid, the SANFL Sensation Sid Draper.

Incredible stuff Noober. Thanks for this!

 

[marcmurphy3]

We can only make a trade up for the current pick, otherwise someone might just bid anyway and it will be wasted.
So we can't trade with the Lions, their earlier picks will be wiped (or traded down) early on.

Yeah, we'd have to do the trade before the Ashcroft bid comes and may have to go into deficit to match campo bids. We'd want to be confident no bid comes before to make it worth it although I guess we could still trade it out.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

both played through it which questions fos mental toughness

or did someone get in his ear and tell him to stay out of the limelight?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

We're on the final stretch run with the National Draft only a couple of weeks away. Just like last season I'll be producing a series of full season highlights videos for the top prospects, and first up is Sid the kid, the SANFL Sensation Sid Draper.

Thank you for putting this together.. combining the highlights by category is very helpful.

But holy hell, if this just doesn't confirm for me what I'd thought so far - Draper is a super star in the making and in my opinion is the CLEAR no.1 player in this draft. Those highlights are amazing, the goals in particular are something that I haven't seen in some of the other highlights packages.

Kid is a star. please Carlton, please don't **** this up.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Incredible stuff Noober. Thanks for this!

I'm a big fan.

Looks like a very safe (in a good way) option - with plenty of upside...

Super slippery customer, good disposal, makes quick (and good) decisions.... naturally attacking mid. POD for us!

The connection with the Campo lads must be a plus too.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Thank you for putting this together.. combining the highlights by category is very helpful.

But holy hell, if this just doesn't confirm for me what I'd thought so far - Draper is a super star in the making and in my opinion is the CLEAR no.1 player in this draft. Those highlights are amazing, the goals in particular are something that I haven't seen in some of the other highlights packages.

Kid is a star. please Carlton, please don't **** this up.

Dow 2.0 BUST!!!!

Or so I've heard...

 

[Matty411]

Man, I know there's a ton of angst around Pick 3 right now - mainly (I think) because we're all bloody excited and passionate about getting another top-tier kid in when we're marching towards the top run on the table.

The more I think about it, the more I think we can't lose. I'm most excited by Jagga and Draper given they have the most exposed form in 2024 with notable one-woods (or two obvious strengths above the rest of the draft class). But I can see A-grade talent in Lalor, FOS and Langford as well and I wouldn't be upset with any.

Look forward to that player having an impact in 2025 for us in the #7 guernsey.

 

[Bletch]

Yeah, we'd have to do the trade before the Ashcroft bid comes and may have to go into deficit to match campo bids. We'd want to be confident no bid comes before to make it worth it although I guess we could still trade it out.

Brisbane will likely have a trade or two lined up as the first thing that will happen on draft night. Possible we might get involved.

 

[Coops93]

Dylan Alexander did a video about midfield archetypes which I thought was good which articulates this type of player as the "strike" mid

They are trying to punch through the stoppage/congestion and make metres.

Takes a rare athletic profile and you need defensive minded players to cover them because they are often leaving their man behind.

I don't really mind that, though. The best teams have this type of player and the dynamism and explosion they add to your attack far outweighs leaving a man behind, which can be covered via structure anyway. Dusty, Danger, Petracca, Fyfe, Cripps and the list goes on of these types. Cripps and Fyfe perhaps don't fit the athletic profile typically but manage to get it done in other ways.

It's why I'm a little bemused at people talking about the defensive ability of some of these guys. I want a game changer in the top 3, not a 2 way jobber. Look at every Brownlow/Coaches award/All Australian and they're attacking, defensively liable mids. Their defensive chops aren't what I'm after; you can find defensive/role playing mids far easier than game breaking attackers.

 

[GoBlues!]

Austin made no secret of the fact that we wanted to draft a key defender (at this pick)
There are a myriad of options around the mark of our second pick.

Even once touted top 5 Trainor may slip this far due to concussion concerns.
Matt Whitlock could last this long as well as a defensive regarded swingman.
James Barrat is a top line interceptor who may be considered. KPD.
Noah Mraz has his fans after an injury punctuated season.
Harry O’Farrell again had plenty of injury downtime and has been linked to us through the family connection.
My personal favourite WA All Australian Clancy Dennis should also be in consideration and we have certainly spoken to him.
Saints NGA boys Hofmann and Cole.
SA swingmen Nicholls and West probably are later to rookie, like Key defender Jacob Sheean.

It is absolutely the year to pick up a key defender (or 2)

I like James Barrat Coona - has played forward and kicked plenty of goals and did really well when played in defence. His draft profile says he has a bit of mongrel as well just what we need.

 

[Wickzki]

1. Langford or Draper
2. Langford
3. Too tight among them (just not Langford)

If the deficit on 3 isn't too significant you've got your man.

 

[ferrisb]

Draper, West and the twins would be a fair haul out of SA this year.
Imagine that they’d all settle nicely in Melbourne together …

Even if they're all going East?

 

[GoBlues!]

Even if they're all going East?

Only 640 kms away as the Adelaide Crow flies….and about 30 years in terms of fashion and hairstyles..

 

[AT97]

I think he is one of the smartest kids I have seen. While he will never be quick, he should improve his running, similar to what Cripps has done

Big lad with a decent tank if the 2km run time is an indicator - unlike Cripps did.