Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[GoBlues!]

You’ve misunderstood.
In the event that a bid comes for Ben pre-38, we would trade 38 to another club for F2 (we would then have 2x F2). After we match the bid with our later picks, we would then try to trade back into the draft with one of those F2s.

Stamos, if a bid for Ben C comes from the Saints at #32 and we matched it with later picks, what sort of pick range do you think we could trade back into with F2s?

Looking at the draft picks below, I think most clubs in the 30’s would probably hold onto their picks.

Adelaide: 4, 64
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Carlton: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72
Collingwood: 52, 55, 58
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Fremantle: 14, 30, 67
Geelong: 45, 57, 75
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61, 70, 76, 78
GWS pool: 15, 16, 21, 37, 56, 74
Hawthorn: 33, 71, 77
Melbourne: 5, 9
North Melbourne: 2, 62
Port Adelaide: 13, 29, 36, 50
Richmond: 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23, 24
St Kilda: 7, 8, 32, 47
Sydney: 19, 22, 44, 59
West Coast: 12, 26, 73
Western Bulldogs: 17, 25, 35, 48

 

[Sheephead]

Whoa, big Draper fan, but a ZeroHanger article suggesting he missed the draft combine due to a chronic Pars Defect is a massive go slow. For it to be manifesting at his age is scary. We already have Walshy with a chronic back (and George)

I have a Pars Defect among other things, admittedly I am of a different vintage and it took decades to severely impact me(along with pelvic procedure), but it is debilitating. Leg neuropathy is a common symptom, mine rampant. Not a surgeon, so hard to offer meaningful feedback regarding potential impingement and possible impact at his age. I am concerned that it is reported as the reason he missed the combine, suggesting early issues. Spine can be fused as treatment, doubt it would be a positive outcome for his movement range. (I cannot have mine fused as my entire pelvis is already fused and both in conjunction would leave me with next to no movement)

Massive need for due diligence off the back of that report. Love the kid, but wow?

Respect Coona.

 

[BlackGoanna]

I have some Langford biased due to some peripheral involvement with my son and watching some games live. He was a class above and I really think he will be in the top 3 players in this draft.

I understand that we are targeting a burst midfielder which I get I just hope they come with the same level of instinct and competitiveness, with the ability create space and hit a target. I have heard the comparison to Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

which is accurate but I do see a bit of Luke Hodge with the aggressive leadership and match winning ability.

Our main 3 targets are hard to split. I think Jagga will have the durability and consistency, FOS has the highest ceiling and is multi-positional. Draper will likely have the most immediate impact.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Arr0w]

Stamos, if a bid for Ben C comes from the Saints at #32 and we matched it with later picks, what sort of pick range do you think we could trade back into with F2s?

Looking at the draft picks below, I think most clubs in the 30’s would probably hold onto their picks.

Adelaide: 4, 64
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Carlton: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72
Collingwood: 52, 55, 58
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Fremantle: 14, 30, 67
Geelong: 45, 57, 75
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61, 70, 76, 78
GWS pool: 15, 16, 21, 37, 56, 74
Hawthorn: 33, 71, 77
Melbourne: 5, 9
North Melbourne: 2, 62
Port Adelaide: 13, 29, 36, 50
Richmond: 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23, 24
St Kilda: 7, 8, 32, 47
Sydney: 19, 22, 44, 59
West Coast: 12, 26, 73
Western Bulldogs: 17, 25, 35, 48

GWS could be a candidate

 

[Stamos]

Stamos, if a bid for Ben C comes from the Saints at #32 and we matched it with later picks, what sort of pick range do you think we could trade back into with F2s?

Looking at the draft picks below, I think most clubs in the 30’s would probably hold onto their picks.

Adelaide: 4, 64
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Carlton: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72
Collingwood: 52, 55, 58
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Fremantle: 14, 30, 67
Geelong: 45, 57, 75
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61, 70, 76, 78
GWS pool: 15, 16, 21, 37, 56, 74
Hawthorn: 33, 71, 77
Melbourne: 5, 9
North Melbourne: 2, 62
Port Adelaide: 13, 29, 36, 50
Richmond: 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23, 24
St Kilda: 7, 8, 32, 47
Sydney: 19, 22, 44, 59
West Coast: 12, 26, 73
Western Bulldogs: 17, 25, 35, 48

It probably won’t be that easy, and will likely be a bit later than ideal, but potentially Giants, Swans, Dogs, *, Filth

 

[Soapy V]

I have some Langford biased due to some peripheral involvement with my son and watching some games live. He was a class above and I really think he will be in the top 3 players in this draft.

I understand that we are targeting a burst midfielder which I get I just hope they come with the same level of instinct and competitiveness, with the ability create space and hit a target. I have heard the comparison to Jordan Dawson which is accurate but I do see a bit of Luke Hodge with the aggressive leadership and match winning ability.

Our main 3 targets are hard to split. I think Jagga will have the durability and consistency, FOS has the highest ceiling and is multi-positional. Draper will likely have the most immediate impact.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I picked Langford for us in Phantom.

The kid just has it. Forget leg speed etc. People can always find reasons why not. He is tall, strong, clean hands and a great kick.

Yet, I picked him because he steps up when needed. He looks mentally tough and can be trusted. He is a winner and IMO looks like a natural AFL player and leader

I see him somewhere between Bont & Dawson. He just has IT

 

[teagueyubeauty]

GWS could be a candidate

There’s going to have to be a bit of spitballing, a lot of the clubs that have picks around the late 30’s/early 40’s are clubs that will have early academy picks.

We’ll find a club no doubt though, an opportunity to move up a few spots in the second round of the draft for nothing is a no brainer


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Sydney looks a likely candidate...if the bid comes we offload 38 for their F2....then trade it back to them for 44....we essentially upgrade their second round pick for doing us a favour

 

[Stamos]

Sydney looks a likely candidate...if the bid comes we offload 38 for their F2....then trade it back to them for 44....we essentially upgrade their second round pick for doing us a favour

Can’t be the same pick, would have to trade the Brisbane F2

 

[Juice030103]

Mock draft with trades and bidding


1: Lalor (Richmond)
2: Ashcroft (Brisbane)
3: Tauru (North)
4: FOS (Blues)
5: Langford (Crows)
6: Jagga (Dees)
7: Smilie (Richmond)
8: Lombard (Suns)
9: Kako (Bombers)
10: Allan (Saints)
11: Draper (Saints)
12: Reid (Dees)

If Richmond get 2 they take FOS we pick Jagga

 

[TENACIOUS]

I’m not too concerned about pick 3 Lalor is going to be a gun

Ben Camporeale and Pick 38 are the area of discussion IMO.

Best case scenario.
Ben not getting bid on before 38

• We have our pick of the best KPP at that pick.

Worst case scenario.
Ben gets bid on prior to 38.

• Does O’Farrell and West last to the end of the draft where our next picks are?
• Or do we take DFAs instead.
• Does Lucas Camporeale make it through to the rookie draft?
• Or do we just take him in the draft to fill a list spot?

If Ben is bid on before pick 38.
Is it against the rules to work with a club say “Sydney” trade 38 to Sydney for their future 2nd rounder, match Ben with later picks. Then when it gets to Sydney’s pick 41 trade, their or Brisbanes second back to them for that pick.

Sydney - Move from pick 41 to pick 38 (for their help)
Carlton - Use their later picks on Ben and only move back a few picks in the draft.

 

[VainGlorious]

actual picture of me watching highlights of FOS, Draper, and Smith whilst trying to decide which one I’d prefer @ pick 3

 

[Jimmae]

Still keen for us to trade down, and if North are going to get silly at 2 and can't figure something out with Richmond or Melbourne, then I'm hoping we can do something with one of them or the Saints.

Smillie and Hotton would be a huge haul. Also helps with the pick 38 issue because we'd have to trade it.

Something about Draper in those highlights reminds me of Juddy when he was at West Coast.

Sorry to single you out but I've seen this comparison a few times... and it's just silly.

Judd had a good shimmy and spin, but Draper has a lot more dance steps. Judd's strength was his sheer pace, acceleration, and endurance, and the power that would come from that.

He'd shuffle or accelerate then burn off an opponent - or several - and do it 50+ times a game. Completely different level of athlete.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

I don't really mind that, though. The best teams have this type of player and the dynamism and explosion they add to your attack far outweighs leaving a man behind, which can be covered via structure anyway. Dusty, Danger, Petracca, Fyfe, Cripps and the list goes on of these types. Cripps and Fyfe perhaps don't fit the athletic profile typically but manage to get it done in other ways.

It's why I'm a little bemused at people talking about the defensive ability of some of these guys. I want a game change in the top 3, not a 2 way jobber. Look at every Brownlow/Coaches award/All Australian and they're attacking, defensively liable mids. Their defensive chops aren't what I'm after, I want the best game changing mid. The defensive side of the game is a distant concern for me. You can find defensive/role playing mids far easier than game breaking attackers.

100%.

 

[BobP]

Watched the extended highlights of FOS. I think others have mentioned but best case projection is Heeney. Think the latter had better midfield craft in his draft year though.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

He’s so good by foot and the goals he kicked are just class!! He’s gonna be a special player and I would love him in navy blue!!! Still don’t understand the hate he receives

Vic players get way over hyped....

Distance bias...

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Mock draft with trades and bidding


1: Lalor (Richmond)
2: Ashcroft (Brisbane)
3: Tauru (North)
4: FOS (Blues)
5: Langford (Crows)
6: Jagga (Dees)
7: Smilie (Richmond)
8: Lombard (Suns)
9: Kako (Bombers)
10: Allan (Saints)
11: Draper (Saints)
12: Reid (Dees)

If Richmond get 2 they take FOS we pick Jagga

If Draper can be got around 11, we should 100% try and split #3....

 

[SurreyBlue]

actual picture of me watching highlights of FOS, Draper, and Smith whilst trying to decide which one I’d prefer @ pick 3

View attachment 2158290

Agree. i hate to say it, as we have been burnt so many times, we just need to trust the group who have watched these kids for over 12 months. Fingers crossed as it’s a big bet on the table.

 

[SurreyBlue]

If Draper can be got around 11, we should 100% try and split #3....

We had pick 12 - just saying.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

The Draper pars defect revelation is concerning I must say.

Still of the opinion we end up with FOS either way but as someone who's brother in law has struggled with the same issue most of his adult life I'd almost be inclined to go Smith>Draper purely on the clean bill of health basis.

I just want a kid we can rely on for 20+ games next year and hopefully for most of their career

 

[Sheephead]

Still keen for us to trade down, and if North are going to get silly at 2 and can't figure something out with Richmond or Melbourne, then I'm hoping we can do something with one of them or the Saints.

Smillie and Hotton would be a huge haul. Also helps with the pick 38 issue because we'd have to trade it.

Sorry to single you out but I've seen this comparison a few times... and it's just silly.

Judd had a good shimmy and spin, but Draper has a lot more dance steps. Judd's strength was his sheer pace, acceleration, and endurance, and the power that would come from that.

He'd shuffle or accelerate then burn off an opponent - or several - and do it 50+ times a game. Completely different level of athlete.

Yep, I’d trade down too. We don’t lose at 3, but we wouldn’t lose at 6 and 11 either, this draft is sooooo deep. Tigers would most likely still get their man at 3, either FOS or Smith. In fact I think Rich would trade 6, 18, 20 for 3 and 38. Gets us everything Austin wants and moves us away from the bid issue.

6 - Smillie
18 - Berry
20 - Barrat
Bid - Ben Camporeale

Smillie and Cripps (and Barrat) can play forward and cover the Martin/Kennedy loss as well as being dominant inside beasts. Berry gives us the extra speedy small. Barrat is Tom Stewart/Barrass type in defence. Camporeale I and II will be steals IMO and have the leg speed, like dad. Rookie a big.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yep, I’d trade down too. We don’t lose at 3, but we wouldn’t lose at 6 and 11 either, this draft is sooooo deep. Tigers would most likely still get their man at 3, either FOS or Smith. In fact I think Rich would trade 6, 18, 20 for 3 and 38. Gets us everything Austin wants and moves us away from the bid issue.

6 - Smillie
18 - Berry
20 - Barrat
Bid - Ben Camporeale

Smillie and Cripps (and Barrat) can play forward and cover the Martin/Kennedy loss as well as being dominant inside beasts. Berry gives us the extra speedy small. Barrat is Tom Stewart/Barrass type in defence. Camporeale I and II will be steals IMO and have the leg speed, like dad. Rookie a big.

If Roos take Tauru at 2 then it means one of FOS, O'Sullivan, Langford or Draper is there at 6. I'd still expect us to take FOS rather then slide down but worth some thought.

Doubt it happens though. If North plan on taking Tauru and Tigers are willing to deal 6 plus change they'll take it.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Yep, I’d trade down too. We don’t lose at 3, but we wouldn’t lose at 6 and 11 either, this draft is sooooo deep. Tigers would most likely still get their man at 3, either FOS or Smith. In fact I think Rich would trade 6, 18, 20 for 3 and 38. Gets us everything Austin wants and moves us away from the bid issue.

6 - Smillie
18 - Berry
20 - Barrat
Bid - Ben Camporeale

Smillie and Cripps (and Barrat) can play forward and cover the Martin/Kennedy loss as well as being dominant inside beasts. Berry gives us the extra speedy small. Barrat is Tom Stewart/Barrass type in defence. Camporeale I and II will be steals IMO and have the leg speed, like dad. Rookie a big.

Berry isn't getting to 18, and no way tigers do that deal

 

[HarryFlashman]

The Draper pars defect revelation is concerning I must say.

Still of the opinion we end up with FOS either way but as someone who's brother in law has struggled with the same issue most of his adult life I'd almost be inclined to go Smith>Draper purely on the clean bill of health basis.

I just want a kid we can rely on for 20+ games next year and hopefully for most of their career

100%, that’s super scary.

With the next level increase in work load you just don’t know what can happen.
Yes there’s the best medical support available but when u ramp up the workload that’s when things flare/develop.

Given what’s available at our pick, I’d be taking a very wide berth, why take the risk even if it’s low.

 

[RPCB]

Yep, I’d trade down too. We don’t lose at 3, but we wouldn’t lose at 6 and 11 either, this draft is sooooo deep. Tigers would most likely still get their man at 3, either FOS or Smith. In fact I think Rich would trade 6, 18, 20 for 3 and 38. Gets us everything Austin wants and moves us away from the bid issue.

6 - Smillie
18 - Berry
20 - Barrat
Bid - Ben Camporeale

Smillie and Cripps (and Barrat) can play forward and cover the Martin/Kennedy loss as well as being dominant inside beasts. Berry gives us the extra speedy small. Barrat is Tom Stewart/Barrass type in defence. Camporeale I and II will be steals IMO and have the leg speed, like dad. Rookie a big.

Only problem with that is Austin has what he wants. Pick 3.

He’s not trading down.