Strategy 2024 Planning Thread

[cznsnowy91]

My favourite part of SC is picking a new team.

Think I'll start my man LDU next year if he gets a full pre season if he doesn't end up being ridiculously expensive.

Hopefully Clarry has recovered from his hammy in 8 months, assume it will be touch and go.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Sean Darcy to Geelong was spoken about on Footy Classified last week. TDK staying at the Blues was also mentioned.

Darcy to Geelong has been debunked by both clubs and his agent as BS started in the West Australian.

We won’t come close to the picks needed for starters. Ditto TDK.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Xerri will be the ruck to take a risk on next year. Assuming Goldstein retires.

4 games @75 this year. Roughly $400k minus a discount.

 

[swindle]

Not sure if this is planning but for the first 3 rounds or so only allowing myself cash gen & injury trades. Avoiding disaster/overreaction trades like Shrek > Cameron > Grundy > Gawn > Cameron and then prioritising trading in good rookies over the starting hot mid pricer (Chandler over Setterfault for example).

I'll also generally ignore injury history unless they are older (Yeo, Fyfe types etc.), so many durable players this season getting injured and so many young "injury prone" players going through unscathed.

 

[ubeaut]

The big difference between 2023 and 2024 will be the forward promos.

This year we had Cogs, Rozee, Butters, Dunkley, Taranto, and Gulden. Most had 4 or 5 of these.

I don't think any of these will be forwards next year so its going to make the top 8 or so very tough to pick

Of those Butters is a chance for fwd dpp

 

[TheArchitect]

Not sure if this is planning but for the first 3 rounds or so only allowing myself cash gen & injury trades. Avoiding disaster/overreaction trades like Shrek > Cameron > Grundy > Gawn > Cameron and then prioritising trading in good rookies over the starting hot mid pricer (Chandler over Setterfault for example).

I'll also generally ignore injury history unless they are older (Yeo, Fyfe types etc.), so many durable players this season getting injured and so many young "injury prone" players going through unscathed.

Exactly this for me too.

I had used 9 trades before my first upgrade this year

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'll bring my story, as it's super relevant .....I listened to a lot of podcasts this year ....and I think "subconsciously" I abdicated my own thinking

The big thing talked about PS was if an opportunity arose to take an experienced player, at the same price as a rookie ....take the experienced player

So, in R1, I have:
Fyfe over Sheezel
Cunnington over ?
Bytel over Mackenzie
Jones over ?

Plus Darcy over English ......Laird over Oliver and topping R1 off, put the (C) on Laird, getting his score of 50

All giving me a R1 Rank of 96,000 ......lowest I'd ever been B4 after R1 was 17K

I then proceed to trade my way back into contention ......9 trades in next 3 rounds ....that was my fatal mistake
After that, injuries & suspensions, inspired by the AFL policies ....wrecked my season, and having wasted so many early trades .....the end was inevitable

Oh yeah, one of those trades was Darcy to Cameron in week 5 .....with Cameron lasting one week

The moral of this rant ......you have to get your R1 side right .....sounds like I wasn't the only Coach trading his arse off to catchup

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Xerri will be the ruck to take a risk on next year. Assuming Goldstein retires.

4 games @75 this year. Roughly $400k minus a discount.

The other point I'll add, in selecting my R1 side next year ......no risky picks ....start vanilla & then take calculated risks with more data

 

[jdstorm]

I'll bring my story, as it's super relevant .....I listened to a lot of podcasts this year ....and I think "subconsciously" I abdicated my own thinking

The big thing talked about PS was if an opportunity arose to take an experienced player, at the same price as a rookie ....take the experienced player

So, in R1, I have:
Fyfe over Sheezel
Cunnington over ?
Bytel over Mackenzie
Jones over ?

Plus Darcy over English ......Laird over Oliver and topping R1 off, put the (C) on Laird, getting his score of 50

All giving me a R1 Rank of 96,000 ......lowest I'd ever been B4 after R1 was 17K

I then proceed to trade my way back into contention ......9 trades in next 3 rounds ....that was my fatal mistake
After that, injuries & suspensions, inspired by the AFL policies ....wrecked my season, and having wasted so many early trades .....the end was inevitable

Oh yeah, one of those trades was Darcy to Cameron in week 5 .....with Cameron lasting one week

The moral of this rant ......you have to get your R1 side right .....sounds like I wasn't the only Coach trading his arse off to catchup

View attachment 1755093

While I think your starting side determines a lot of things,

Being 96k after round 1 due to a 50 captain score (100 total) and being 140 points behind where you’d expect to be on average with that player so you don’t have an accurate measurement of your starting side’s capabilities until much later.

I also think the advantage of finding keeper level players under 350k is too much to ignore. Because it’s not just value but also saves you trades

 

[HotPiesWithSauce]

I'll be grabbing Bont and Stewart from the start, two players that I haven't managed to trade in this year and regularly destroy me

Avoiding injury prone players, I made some real dumb decisions

Going to start only rookies that I'm almost absolutely positive will play more than 2 games

Avoid rookies from teams that I think will be top 4, unless they're very high draft picks/father sons

 

[WaynesWorld19]

While I think your starting side determines a lot of things,

Being 96k after round 1 due to a 50 captain score (100 total) and being 140 points behind where you’d expect to be on average with that player so you don’t have an accurate measurement of your starting side’s capabilities until much later.

I also think the advantage of finding keeper level players under 350k is too much to ignore. Because it’s not just value but also saves you trades

Understand where you're coming from .....in my case Fyfe didn't play after R1 .....and Bytel played his 2nd game for the year on the weekend ......both Bytel and Cunnington had big PS games .....so more the fool me

I agree though .....I held onto the rest to get more data ...... LOL Darcy came good as soon as I traded him

The point is at 96K ranking ......if you hold to get more data ....you potentially continue to slide, so you make decisions ....panic decisions, you wouldn't normally make at a higher rank

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[ubeaut]

While I think your starting side determines a lot of things,

Being 96k after round 1 due to a 50 captain score (100 total) and being 140 points behind where you’d expect to be on average with that player so you don’t have an accurate measurement of your starting side’s capabilities until much later.

I also think the advantage of finding keeper level players under 350k is too much to ignore. Because it’s not just value but also saves you trades

It's a balance between having the right popular picks and the 2 or 3 value picks IMO.
I wish I started Day and Setterfield for example, both made good cash and scored well

 

[TheArchitect]

While I think your starting side determines a lot of things,

Being 96k after round 1 due to a 50 captain score (100 total) and being 140 points behind where you’d expect to be on average with that player so you don’t have an accurate measurement of your starting side’s capabilities until much later.

I also think the advantage of finding keeper level players under 350k is too much to ignore. Because it’s not just value but also saves you trades

Realistically this is very difficult, and your best bet is to bring them in after Rd 2.

This year there is only maybe 2? (Day and Sheezel?)

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

The other point I'll add, in selecting my R1 side next year ......no risky picks ....start vanilla & then take calculated risks with more data

Agreed to a point. The danger is re-fighting the last war though.

2022 was a MPM year, this year not so much (there are always some that work).
Next year will be different, I think patience is the key personally. No kneejerk trades early in the season. Just get the best rookies and pick off value as it presents. Aim for 23 or 24 premo's.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

It's a balance between having the right popular picks and the 2 or 3 value picks IMO.
I wish I started Day and Setterfield for example, both made good cash and scored well

Setters only made $100k. He wasn't that good.

POD's are only good if they work. I have too many this season and while I've had a few good weeks, it's more often pain.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Agreed to a point. The danger is re-fighting the last war though.

2022 was a MPM year, this year not so much (there are always some that work).
Next year will be different, I think patience is the key personally. No kneejerk trades early in the season. Just get the best rookies and pick off value as it presents. Aim for 24 or 24 premo's.

Interesting isn't it .....the Coaches that traded hard in 2022 were rewarded ....those who followed that path in 2023 were penalised

Really need to see what's on the AFL's "hit list" early season

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Setters only made $100k. He wasn't that good.

POD's are only good if they work. I have too many this season and while I've had a few good weeks, it's more often pain.

Setters had the role early ....scored well, then was moved out of the role, losing money

You have to be convinced the role is there

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Interesting isn't it .....the Coaches that traded hard in 2022 were rewarded ....those who followed that path in 2023 were penalised

Really need to see what's on the AFL's "hit list" early season

It does feel that the SC relevant players seem to be getting more of the injuries and suspensions this year.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Setters had the role early ....scored well, then was moved out of the role, losing money

You have to be convinced the role is there

Started $348k topped out at $445k. Neither a success nor a fail really.

 

[kenneyswarriors]

I know some see this thread as negative and too early, but as activity dwindles in the last few rounds of the season, I believe this thread is handy to have going, as it encourages users to continue to contribute.

Also, lots of things that occur in the last few rounds of the season often carry over into the next year.

View attachment 1754647

I started my own before Rnd 1,had a premonition what a shit show this year would be, didn't think it would be quite this bad thou.

 

[kenneyswarriors]

Might go with a young midpricer policy to try and jag a few breakouts.

Mitch Owens
Connor Nash
Nic Martin
Wanganeen-Milera
BJ Williams
Rachele
Xerri

Mitch is a definite as is NWM for me.

Owens scoring has gone down since King got injured, spending more time forward since then.

 

[Falchoon]

Interesting isn't it .....the Coaches that traded hard in 2022 were rewarded ....those who followed that path in 2023 were penalised

Really need to see what's on the AFL's "hit list" early season

So job 1 is to analyse the current season (and last season).


As a partial exercise here is my current team, how often they have been captain and how many rounds they have been on field.




and here is the players I traded out



Prob need to add in trade in round and price data (price as a score expectation), and then analyse starting squad. What worked, what didn't.

 

[Hack_Watts]

Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

would be tasty if he escaped crazy Bevo. Would be a walk up start in many midfields around the league.

 

[jdstorm]

Realistically this is very difficult, and your best bet is to bring them in after Rd 2.

This year there is only maybe 2? (Day and Sheezel?)

I went with the opposite stratergy. Treat them all as rookies.

So this year I started with 12 premos and 10 high priced rookies.

The key was volume and doing it as part of your upgrade cycle.

Then I could justify correcting down early because if that player was mediocre they were still a 300k player that could be upgraded

2x300k players = 500k + 100k player pretty easily and they only have to average 60 to maintain their value