Autopsy 2024 Rd 21 Carlton vs Collingwood 3 point loss - is our season over?

[DangerousD]

Every single side plays us the same way. Play 3 on 2 to Charlie and Harry. Spread hard on rebound and expose us for pace.

As a result what you’re seeing is what occurs. Us with a crowded forward line. Opposition getting easy space in rebound.

We start hurting sides a lot when we get the ball into good kickers hands like mcg Newman and saad and they take the game on by foot though the middle.

Opposition sides are totally exposed.

We usually start doing that when we are in trouble. And when the pressure is off because we are either well up or well down.

We don’t have the mental strength to do it when the game is on the line.

Yet.

Weirdly I think they will have had enough of themselves this week.

I expect them to attack the hawks big time. Their backline is rubbish. Get it in fast

Ok, but when we do get it in fast, what do you see with Harry and Charlie? Do they mostly lead and get hit in space or do they get it put on their head and hopefully get a mark or a free? I think its the latter, even when they are getting goals it doesnt seem to be kicked to them in space, not saying it never happens but it still seems its just go long to the boys.

I have noticed so many times this year and last year for that matter that these two and lots of our forwards dont lead at the ball carrier, everyone just runs back towards goal and calls for the ball, i struggle to understand it, ok some players running back is fine but you still need players presenting.

Get it in fast but move for god sake.

 

[BlueTongue]

On the who would you back to kick the goal conversation, McGovern is one I would back tbh. He just shanked it, it happens. Sucks it happened in that moment, but McGovern is generally a reliable kick for goal especially from ~45 out - that is his range imo.

Again, sucks, but shanks happen unfortunately. Everyone kicking for goal ever has done it.

Gov? No Chance. (EDIT: My Opinion is that) Gov was moved into the backline because his Goal Kicking is Poor. It's purely mental because he is the best field kick in the side. He just chokes in front of goal. Martin is probably our best set shot (when he's on the park).

 

[carlton_99]

Gov? No Chance. Gov was moved into the backline because his Goal Kicking is Poor. It's purely mental because he is the best field kick in the side. He just chokes in front of goal. Martin is probably our best set shot (when he's on the park).

I'm not sure this is really true - his goalkicking since crossing over from the Adelaide has been very good (42.22) and that includes a 22.11 in 2019 when he played forward for us. At the Crows he was 67.51 which isn't as good but certainly not poor - would be slightly less accurate than Curnow this season (56.41).

I do agree however with your last point on Martin being our best set shot. Owies is also generally reliable from within 40.

 

[BlueTongue]

I'm not sure this is really true - his goalkicking since crossing over from the Adelaide has been very good (42.22) and that includes a 22.11 in 2019 when he played forward for us. At the Crows he was 67.51 which isn't as good but certainly not poor - would be slightly less accurate than Curnow this season (56.41).

I do agree however with your last point on Martin being our best set shot. Owies is also generally reliable from within 40.

My Original Post EFA

 

[Carringbush2010]

To be honest, this team is probably one of the most talented lists over the last 10 years, yeah that includes the richmond and hawthorn teams.

Just needs further development, you can see players like Hollands and Cincotta are gonna be class players.

AND you need to get your nasty back < this is crucial, teams don't fear playing you anymore, where as at the start of the year every team was shitting themselves at the prospect.

It's clear that last years premiers certainly DID NOT HAVE the best list in the comp, not even top 4, they won it because of system and belief in role players like McCreery for example, a no one who was developed to be that pressure player . The blues system is solid < get back to that < this is crucial.

Of course I hope this doesn't happen, but your season is not over and it's not like you can't regain form at the right time.

Of course I hope this doesn't happen, but I have respect of the what the blues can be.

 

[bourbons]

I think our general football IQ is amongst the lowest out of all the 18 clubs.

We definitely seem to be back to making consistently bad decisions again ala first half of '23. Watched it again last night, so many shorter hit ups and release handballs going into our forward line missed (as in not even seen or attempted).

 

[bourbons]

Carlton was playing at 250 pressure levels in Q1 - the problem was 1 :8 was the conversion number.

Voss' game plan seems to be start strong for a quarter hold on for the next and finish strong. Pretty basic and effective if conversion is average - if it is shyte - bad things can happen.

Yeah the first Q was better on 2nd look than I remembered it, we were all over them, just needed to put some scoreboard pressure on.

As always, bad kicking is bad footy

 

[JustaBattler]

Yeah the first Q was better on 2nd look than I remembered it, we were all over them, just needed to put some scoreboard pressure on.

As always, bad kicking is bad footy

It may be frustrating - how simple the game really is - boils down to

1. Allowing less scoring opportunities and conversion
2. Creating more scoring opportunities
3. Converting scoring opportunities

using this algebra removes a lot of noise.

 

[bourbons]

It may be frustrating - how simple the game really is - boils down to

1. Allowing less scoring opportunities and conversion
2. Creating more scoring opportunities
3. Converting scoring opportunities

using this algebra removes a lot of noise.

Its consistent over the last month though, thats the issue - we routinely can't get bang for buck and put scoreboard pressure on when we're well on top of another team in general play.

Whether its system or choking/mentally not up to it, I'm not sure. Leaning towards the mental aspect though.

 

[Stamos]

Its consistent over the last month though, thats the issue - we routinely can't get bang for buck and put scoreboard pressure on when we're well on top of another team in general play.

Whether its system or choking/mentally not up to it, I'm not sure. Leaning towards the mental aspect though.

We haven't looked switched on regularly over the last 5 weeks.
Were killing the Giants, and just switched off. Weitering gifting them a goal with 20 seconds to go in the first. And then we just tried to play too cute. Got cut up, went back into our shells a bit and went away from basics.

I really don't think it's a game plan problem, or a talent problem (although when we get so little out of Charlie, Walsh, H and TDK missing it really hurts).
Our best footy is when we apply high pressure, have high work rate, take the first option with the ball. We are extremely hard to beat.
But when we allow ourselves to be pressured, stuff around with the ball, become more selfish and more stagnant, we get torched. To the tune of 3-14 points.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Back in 2017 it was McGovern who kicked a goal after the siren against Collingwood and yesterday he kicked for goal like a defender. So what changed? The reason why he kicked it like a defender is because we turned him into one. Goalkicking isn't some Irish luck, it is a skill. A skill which he perfected for much of his career. In order to maintain your skillset and improve on it you need to continue to work on it. When you've spent the last 3 years playing down back it is evident that goalkicking is not one of the skills you would spend time on in training. The mark in 2017 flying up on a high up and under kick was considerably more difficult than yesterday's one. He's kicked multiple clutch goals before. He doesn't need to prove anything nor does one bad kick all of a sudden make him a bad goalkicker. Kernahan kicked it on the full in 1993. Goodes, Nick Riewoldt and many more have missed shots after the siren.

The truth of the matter is that our football club has done a disservice to many of our high profile recruits and hung them out to dry. McGovern, Williams and Cerra in particular. We invest a lot of resources into signing them, we play them when they are injured, then crap our pants, hit the panic button and change their position, and go against the premise of why we signed them in the first place. Now I'm not disputing the impact gov has had on the backline and Z Will up forward (Cerra at HB is a joke), but I'm just disappointed in the lack of faith and support our club has given these guys when they have struggled. All 3 of these guys were highly rated and seriously talented at crows, giants and dockers, and all 3 of them have played their best footy in a jumper other than carlton's.

I think Williams was severely exposed both as a midfielder and defender and has done very well as a forward. Ditto Gov who has been sensational as a defender. But to play Cerra across half back? Ridiculous, the guy was an elite mid last year. God knows what's happened to him. Ditto Walsh who is really struggling with his disposal.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Kennedy has been playing solid football, as was Hewitt before he got made sub and then dropped, I really don't understand these moves?

Legpseed. We lack legspeed. Both of these guys are slow unfortunately. We get seriously burned when we turn it over or lose a stoppage.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Personally, I would have banked a couple more wins before playing around with players and tactics

But, every side knows the others gameplan, so it's a fallacy to suggest we have been worked out

For every side it's about pressure, intent, and doing what you do for better and longer

It's that simple

Exactly. But our pressure as up at 250 last week and it still didn't do the trick. But I agree, have all the right systems in place, without pressure and intent it's useless.

 

[bourbons]

Oops, read from the wrong column. Only 1.

Just highlighting how little we rotate this role.

And how much we still need beast mode Cripps to win or even get close

 

[bourbons]

FWIW, I think they know but they have had other priorities and still think that ball use trumps foot speed in all situations.

I mean.. its not as though we're chock-a-block with elite ball users either.

 

[bourbons]

Listened to Walsh’s interview and towards the end he mentioned we’ve had a ‘good block of training’

Interesting


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

So sick of hearing this to be honest. I don't believe it for a second, but even if it's true a 'training block' that has resulted in the last month of form should have been shelved weeks ago when top 4 was still a possibility

 

[Blue Pulse]

Legpseed. We lack legspeed. Both of these guys are slow unfortunately. We get seriously burned when we turn it over or lose a stoppage.

Were they faster when we played Geelong?

You don't take guys out of your side when they are performing well and replace them with guys who come back from long term injuries without a run in the 2's to get some touch back especially when your side is performing well.

Cerra may be classier, but has struggle to find his best, Cottrell, yeah he can run, but you take guys out who are averaging 20-30 possessions a game and replace it with 6, well you created a problem for your self.

May be slow, but both have footy smarts and if you want to beat them to the ball you are going to have to earn it.

 

[Stamos]

Were they faster when we played Geelong?

You don't take guys out of your side when they are performing well and replace them with guys who come back from long term injuries without a run in the 2's to get some touch back especially when your side is performing well.

Cerra may be classier, but has struggle to find his best, Cottrell, yeah he can run, but you take guys out who are averaging 20-30 possessions a game and replace it with 6, well you created a problem for your self.

May be slow, but both have footy smarts and if you want to beat them to the ball you are going to have to earn it.

Bringing Cerra and Cottrell straight back in was undoubtedly a mistake.
As was dropping Pitto against Briggs, and then playing 2 rucks against the Dogs.

Those selection mistakes don't excuse or explain those 2 losses, but they certainly didn't help.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Legpseed. We lack legspeed. Both of these guys are slow unfortunately. We get seriously burned when we turn it over or lose a stoppage.

Exactly, the margin the opposition mids can put on us bursting out of stoppage is quite alarming!

 

[Blue Pulse]

The cats game again? Why do people only refer to one game we won?

Leg speed is an issue especially defensively. If you can’t catch a player, close gaps quickly, stay with an opponent or have speed to corral or squeeze space it’s a major issue. Sides are really taking us on at every opportunity and it’s exposing us

I do agree skill WITH the ball is as good if not better than leg speed but we lack both

Leg speed is something we struggle with but what makes it worse is stupid plays and this annoys the hell out of me.

The opposition take a mark in the back half or midfield and we don't stand the mark, we stand back 5 or 10m so we don't have to "Statue" But what it does, is allow the opposition to kick deeper and doesn't allow our guys time to get back remember, we are slow. Why not push up to the mark and force the player back? The player has to go back to come forward or kick off a step, at least it allows time to fill holes and doesn't allow the deep kick inside their 50.

 

[Stamos]

Leg speed is something we struggle with but what makes it worse is stupid plays and this annoys the hell out of me.

The opposition take a mark in the back half or midfield and we don't stand the mark, we stand back 5 or 10m so we don't have to "Statue" But what it does, is allow the opposition to kick deeper and doesn't allow our guys time to get back remember, we are slow. Why not push up to the mark and force the player back? The player has to go back to come forward or kick off a step, at least it allows time to fill holes and doesn't allow the deep kick inside their 50.

It depends where it is on the ground.
At half back you're better off being mobile and trying to cause indecision than being caught behind as they go past you.

 

[Accidental genius]

Leg speed is something we struggle with but what makes it worse is stupid plays and this annoys the hell out of me.

The opposition take a mark in the back half or midfield and we don't stand the mark, we stand back 5 or 10m so we don't have to "Statue" But what it does, is allow the opposition to kick deeper and doesn't allow our guys time to get back remember, we are slow. Why not push up to the mark and force the player back? The player has to go back to come forward or kick off a step, at least it allows time to fill holes and doesn't allow the deep kick inside their 50.

Agreed - Little things like this we aren’t too smart about.

Pushing tight into the mark forces them to move back before kicking which gives our defenders a bit of time to set up. It’s a tactic to slow their f50 entries.

 

[Blue Pulse]

It depends where it is on the ground.
At half back you're better off being mobile and trying to cause indecision than being caught behind as they go past you.

Agree, but the player in question needs to realise if he will hinder or slow down the player with the ball. The player with the ball has 2 options, go back or play on. At the moment, they take a mark, stand on it and while we are standing off the mark they survey their next move and gain 10m on the kick.

 

[Stamos]

Agree, but the player in question needs to realise if he will hinder or slow down the player with the ball. The player with the ball has 2 options, go back or play on. At the moment, they take a mark, stand on it and while we are standing off the mark they survey their next move and gain 10m on the kick.

Yeah, there are definitely times that we get it wrong.
It's one of the basics that we need to fix up.
Start getting the basics right more often, we'll do a lot better.

 

[Blue Reaper]

The cats game again? Why do people only refer to one game we won?

Leg speed is an issue especially defensively. If you can’t catch a player, close gaps quickly, stay with an opponent or have speed to corral or squeeze space it’s a major issue. Sides are really taking us on at every opportunity and it’s exposing us

I do agree skill WITH the ball is as good if not better than leg speed but we lack both

Complimenting the highlighted bits are systems, movement and overlap run. Players understanding when, where and how to position and run improves transitions and adds to the ‘speed’ calculus.