List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[bennymate]

Someone just spotted T.Viney in WA...

 

[ToxicMegaPunts]

Have gone from thinking Brady is playing with playdough while everyone else plays chess, to having a feeling that something is potentially cooking. Walk away from Houston, screw Port and make them take unders from Pies. Get pick swapping.

If Brady is playing with playdough, then the West Coast list manager is sticking it up his nose!

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Come on people. There are no top secret trade deals that emerge out of nowhere on the last day of trade week. Why? Because clubs and agents want to shop a deal around to get best value out of the market, not deal exclusively with one buyer and potentially undersell.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Agreed. Do not trade 2 or F1 for anyone or any pick. We are trading away a Sheezel, a Wardlaw or a McKercher if we do that. And we get back what exactly? An AA player with 4-5 years left in his career?

Let me ask this: would anyone prefer

Houston

over

J Smith
Lalor
O'Sullivan
Armstrong
Tauru
or the 2025 equivalent?

A high quality player with 4 to 5 years left at the top level versus a high quality player with 10-12 years left at the top level? It's nonsense to suggest the former option is better.

Take 2 to the draft and take F1 to next years' draft. Please.

Gun to the head, for where our list is at, yep I would take Houston over any 18 year old midfielders who will like be 5th or 6th or 7th in line for a rotation, unless they have absolutely exceptional qualities to the level of Kerch or Wardlaw, which none of those you've listed have.

 

[spurs]

Someone just spotted T.Viney in WA...

Do you know where? I will find him.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

****ing Tom Morris trying to argue that Daniel is worth 25.

Hanners absolutely tearing apart his reasoning.

 

[GS WARRIORS]

****ing Tom Morris trying to argue that Daniel is worth 25.

Hanners absolutely tearing apart his reasoning.

He was saying earlier 25 and something. Then I turned off.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Chadwiko]

Viney in WA to bring Harley Reid home.

#2, F1, and Powell

Make it happen Euge.

 

[kool kangas]

Fyfe to North then

Why!...

 

[The Dingrel]

I have been thinking maybe it’s Brayshaw. Pick 2 and F1st for Andy and 11. LDU insurance.

Harley you mean?

 

[DesertRoo]

Not sure Todd has run in years tbh

 

[verypoorboy]

The point is we don't know what it's worth until this time next year, and in the meantime we've lost 12 months of the asset it might buy now

I'm not advocating, just pointing out "our F1 is pick 2/3/4 whatever" misses the temporal dimension

Yeah I agree, it’s all speculative at this point as no one can read the future and predict exactly where we’ll finish.

However, we can take an educated guess where we’re likely to finish given history and our list. Given we finished 17th this year (pick #2) and been down there for 4 years straight now, even if we see some improvement, let’s face it, we won’t be anywhere near finals. So to be conservative it’s fair to say our pick will more than likely be a top 6 pick. Think that’s a pretty realistic and fair assumption, wouldn’t you agree?

So then, if we stay the same at the bottom for a 5th year, it’s another top 2 pick. Improve marginally it’s top 4. Improve a fair amount it’s top 6.

We know for a fact that the Suns pick is certainly #13 and after bidding it’ll be at best 14 or 15.

So assuming we improve a few spots and finish 15th next year (again just an assumption, but highly realistic one). Question needs to be asked based on history.

Would you take Chesser/Aleer now, if you knew you could have Sheezel or Wardlaw in 12 months?
Likewise would you have taken a Ling/Bailey, if you knew you could potentially snatch up an LDU-level talent in 12 months?

Point is, while there are certainly busts too, you’re getting yourself a lot more of a safer bet at the top of the draft. Although Clark is handy, hardly a superstar in that 14-15 range in any of last 8 drafts. You’d need a lot of luck & that hit rate is not good.
Certainly not good enough to justify it for gaining access to a pick ‘12 months earlier’.

 

[DrZaius]

I wish I could share people's confidence that the form of an 18 year old playing against other 18 year olds was a surefire indicator of how the kid would go in the AFL. But it seems to me that the chance of getting another Sheezel or a Daicos are actually relatively low. Some clubs and posters seem to overvalue very high draft picks to my way of thinking.

I'm all for trading our current & future picks but only for the right price. We shouldn't be trading what is premium draft capital for an admittedly very good, but certainly not game-changing player just because we can.

 

[krakouers]

Would you be wearing smart casual attire for a holiday?

Like you would be seen wearing Bintang and thongs (not the footwear) on holiday there Mr giantroo

Why!...

What, we need accurate rumours now?

 

[Disco Dew]

Viney in WA to bring Harley Reid home.

#2, F1, and Powell

Make it happen Euge.

Makes sense why west coast did such a shit deal for pick 3. Im all in on this bullshittery chad. Let’s go!

 

[Jeremy Jordan]

Unpopular call, but I actually reckon any pick between 25 and 45 have about the same odds of becoming a 100 game player.

Like check out drafts over the last 10 years. Bet ya there are a higher percentage of blokes picked between 30-45, that are better players then blokes picked between 25-30.
*dont look this up as I’m probably wrong.

To me, anything outside the first round is essentially a crap shoot. If we trade Daniel’s for pick 25, and Daniel’s never plays a game for us, I honestly don’t think it changes our clubs direction in anyway.

 

[New_Roo]

Fyfe to North then

Wouldn't have thought we would do Fyfe and Parker.....


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[Samsquanch]

I think Richmond would be more interested in getting 2 off our hands.

We were interested in their #6 so I heard so a straight swap?


Am I doing this pick trade stuff right?

 

[DesertRoo]

Viney in WA to bring Harley Reid home.

#2, F1, and Powell

Make it happen Euge.

LOL, Clarke and O'Brien would be organising new identities in Mexico the next day if they were to trade Harley.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Unpopular call, but I actually reckon any pick between 25 and 45 have about the same odds of becoming a 100 game player.

Like check out drafts over the last 10 years. Bet ya there are a higher percentage of blokes picked between 30-45, that are better players then blokes picked between 25-30.
*dont look this up as I’m probably wrong.

To me, anything outside the first round is essentially a crap shoot. If we trade Daniel’s for pick 25, and Daniel’s never plays a game for us, I honestly don’t think it changes our clubs direction in anyway.

Disagree JJ. We've missed so many opportunities to improve our list considerably with picks beyond 20.

 

[New_Roo]

We don't have that much to do... Parker should be easy with 44 and Houston might not be relevant


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[Chadwiko]

LOL, Clarke and O'Brien would be organising new identities in Mexico the next day if they were to trade Harley.

Harley Reid still hasn't signed a contract extension despite WCE desperately throwing huge sums of cash at him.

There's some genuine smoke blowing there.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

"This trade period has been the most boring I can remember, with everyone struggling to find something to talk about"

Tom Morris: I'll take that as a compliment.



LMAO

 

[Psicosis]

Disagree JJ. We've missed so many opportunities to improve our list considerably with picks beyond 20.

It's as though the current regime think the only way to improve our list is via early picks & recycled fringe players.