List Mgmt. 2024 Trade & List Management Thread - Part 3

[giantroo]

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Picks

 

[cardje]

I was big on the #North podcast on Daniel, I know people aren't as excited but I think he instantly makes our half backline better with his kicking. 25 likely becomes 30 so I'm not 100% opposed to it like others. Going to be torn apart for these comments. Parker just get it done.

 

[koshari]

That would mean we have some good depth and a proper awesome half back line?

They both pretty raw and havnt shown a lot, if you were banking on them for significant improvement i reckon its a bit of a punt.

 

[archereleven]

Agree, but its an option available, and an example that demonstrates how its a fallacy to suggest we definitely won't have space for them in the best 23 if Houston was traded in.

It seems to me that a lot of these debates are proxies for two distinct camps around here.

One wants us to become immediately competitive, sees that as a strategic priority in itself, and is prepared to use draft capital to make that happen.

The other wants to retain a draft-heavy focus at all costs because that's what we set out to do back in 2017 and they think any substantial deviation from that risks throwing the project further off-course.

There's obviously pros and cons for either, but clearly I'm in the former camp and Houston helps with that mission.

I'm in camp 2, but prepared to deviate for elite talent.

F1 for Houston - Yes
Pick 25 for Daniel - No

I still think 2 will be hunted, and we can better our hand in this draft. Next year, we have multiple 1sts we can trade to get back in the 2025 draft.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[New_Roo]

Collingwood, please save us from ourselves....

This time I agree with you... we don't get rid or our f1 and 14 for Houston, that is way too much capital esp when Coll were trying to do it with pick 13 alone


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[giantroo]

SOS never gives up on his picks

 

[Merlin007]

No, well not for 30-40% of what it’s worth.

The point is we don't know what it's worth until this time next year, and in the meantime we've lost 12 months of the asset it might buy now

I'm not advocating, just pointing out "our F1 is pick 2/3/4 whatever" misses the temporal dimension

 

[Roosurgence]

I'm in camp 2, but prepared to deviate for elite talent.

F1 for Houston - Yes
Pick 25 for Daniel - No

I still think 2 will be hunted, and we can better our hand in this draft. Next year, we have multiple 1sts we can trade to get back in the 2025 draft.

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

There is no need to do a deal for Pick 2 now. Let the dust settle and let clubs get more excited as the draft gets closer.

I think there will be someone who will bite at that Pick 2 to secure they player they want.

With the draft being so even I am assuming it will be hard to predict where players will go, so if a club has an absolute hard on for a particular player early they might just trade to make sure they get them.

 

[ansonholt]

Oh my goodness we are drowning in suggested Houston trades. It's been going on for weeks. It needs to stop.

 

[Shinboner '07]

Do something north ffs

 

[King Hansen]

Do something north ffs

Trades F1 for 13

 

[perplexed]

There is no need to do a deal for Pick 2 now. Let the dust settle and let clubs get more excited as the draft gets closer.

I think there will be someone who will bite at that Pick 2 to secure they player they want.

With the draft being so even I am assuming it will be hard to predict where players will go, so if a club has an absolute hard on for a particular player early they might just trade to make sure they get them.

Yep. The only urgency would be if we needed to split for a Houston trade. Assuming that isn't on, we can just sit and wait to see who has what after the player trading is done.

 

[Mixed Results]

I think this board simultaneously underrates Pick 2 and our F1, while overrating Pick 25.

There's essentially an entire decade of history suggesting how valuable top five picks are in relation to the rest of the draft. Clubs are getting better and better at identifying talent, and the top of the order has been generating improportionate value for quite a while now.

Pick 25 on the other hand is incredibly speculative. The teams that nail these picks typically also nail later picks, suggesting it's more important to get your recruiting and development systems in place than load up on speculative picks in the late 20s or 30s. Caleb Daniel

5

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

would be a good return for our pick 25, where the proposed deals for Houston look like enormous overpays.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

So we won't deal with the GoDees for pick swaps.

 

[ansonholt]

I think this board simultaneously underrates Pick 2 and our F1, while overrating Pick 25.

There's essentially an entire decade of history suggesting how valuable top five picks are in relation to the rest of the draft. Clubs are getting better and better at identifying talent, and the top of the order has been generating improportionate value for quite a while now.

Pick 25 on the other hand is incredibly speculative. The teams that nail these picks typically also nail later picks, suggesting it's more important to get your recruiting and development systems in place than load up on speculative picks in the late 20s or 30s. Caleb Daniel would be a good return for our pick 25, where the proposed deals for Houston look like enormous overpays.

Agreed. Do not trade 2 or F1 for anyone or any pick. We are trading away a Sheezel, a Wardlaw or a McKercher if we do that. And we get back what exactly? An AA player with 4-5 years left in his career?

Let me ask this: would anyone prefer

Houston

over

J Smith
Lalor
O'Sullivan
Armstrong
Tauru
or the 2025 equivalent?

A high quality player with 4 to 5 years left at the top level versus a high quality player with 10-12 years left at the top level? It's nonsense to suggest the former option is better.

Take 2 to the draft and take F1 to next years' draft. Please.

 

[tales129]

Alright.

2 and F3 to Richmond for 6,14,23
F1 to Gold Coast for 13 and F2

Leaves us with 6,13,14,23,25 to play around for Houston

Ideally 13,23 out and we are left with 6,14,25 and Houston

 

[Joshen]

Hypothetically, I'd be open to:

NM: 2, F1
Dees: 5, 9, F2

 

[PokerRoo]

We will not be getting 2 top 10 picks for either 2 or our F1. If we split 2 it most likely will be 6 (rich) or 5 (melb) with another pick in the teens. probably 15+

 

[BlueandWhiteinmyBlood]

Hypothetically, I'd be open to:

NM: 2, F1
Dees: 5, 9, F2

2 for 5 and 9 thanks

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

Do something north ffs

 

[Fart Cummings]

 

[Tiberius]

I wish I could share people's confidence that the form of an 18 year old playing against other 18 year olds was a surefire indicator of how the kid would go in the AFL. But it seems to me that the chance of getting another Sheezel or a Daicos are actually relatively low. Some clubs and posters seem to overvalue very high draft picks to my way of thinking.

 

[Caracas]

Move onto landing Parker and Daniel then. As good as Houston would be we've spent too long on waiting on this deal.

Does length of time waiting really make any difference here? It will either happen or it won’t, regardless.

 

[Shinboner1]

Still nothing happened?
They know this shit closes tomorrow right?

 

[ToxicMegaPunts]

I'm expecting a hostage handover type scenario.

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[The Dingrel]

View attachment 2141678

I'd say the latter, complete with hood, if we DON'T win the trade.