Game Day 2024 Trade Period - Lian Yu - that liminal space between trade and draft.

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Happy to give 10 and 11 for Bolton,
If,
We also swap first rounders for next year.
Come on Tiges.
You'll love the deathride
:)

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Haha. I think pretty much everyone expects Richmond to add another spoon next year.

It’s possible they’ll be historically garbage next year tbh.
 
I appreciate the flaws with points and how picks might blow out but that aside 10 and 11 is a higher value than the Horne Francis trade.

10 and 18 is equivalent to pick 2 even in the new values. It’s hardly a belligerent unfair stance as some are trying to make it out. If accepted it will rank as one of the highest (non- Gold Coast) prices ever paid.
10 + 18 is a fair stance, but yeah pick values is a poor metric. Approximating using past trades helps, but even that can vary based on the depth and quality of a draft class. Combining that and adjusting using pick offers being made in that specific year is probably your best bet.

Expected games is probably the table/chart that gets you there closer than any 1 table/chart (https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/expected-games/picks), but even that doesn't really account for the fact that list spots are finite. If I took all 10 picks btwn 31 and 40, I'd probably be as likely to find a gem with 1 of them as someone who takes pick 1. But I've used 9 more list spots, which the other can use in any number of ways.
 

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Our drafting and trading almost does itself the next few years.

2024
10 + 18 for Bolton
11 on Lindsay

2025
R1 + F1 for Warner
Match bids on Toby Whan (outside mid) and Basil Hart (small forward)

2026
Match bid on Lucas Robinson (inside mid)
Yarp, particularly high end talent. Chuck in some Wallsy specials at 40+ to turn the list over.
 
Super optimistic, slightly cracked out hypothetical for fun. Don’t take this too seriously.

We trade 10, 11 and 30 (3353 points) out for St Kilda’s 7 and 8 (3195 points)

We use 7 for Bolton and 51 coming back our way, trade 8 (1551 points) for Sydney’s 19 and 22 (1793 points)

We then trade 18, 19 and 51 (2192 points) for GWS 15 and 16 (2179 points)

We go into the draft with 15, 16, 22, 67. Which would likely have us missing out on Allan who would be a surplus to our needs anyway, but Twomey has Berry (small forward) projected late teens and Moraes (wingman) projected mid twenty’s who I’ve liked the look of both. That’s not taking into account potential sliders and would still leave 16 or 22 to play with.

Bolton, Berry, Moraes and a 1st to play with without trading into next year.

IMG_3949.jpeg
 
If we trade Knobel before we play him we are idiots

Absolutely in the conversation for mine amongst who’s got the most potential out of our under 22 players


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Good call he is better future player who has some natural talent, really he is costing us very little at the moment and Reidy is just crash and bash
If we let Knobel go we might regret in 3 to 4 yrs if Darcy knees last that long, by then Knobel will be coming into his prime
 
Would we have any interest in Grainger Barrass?? Maybe all he needs is to get home, be around family and get some confidence
 
10&11, 10&18.... who cares. We will still probably pick the same player whether we have pick 11 or 18. If using 10&11 pays for a bunch of salary then get it done and pick the next star at 18. Alex Rance, Daniel Kerr and Luke Shuey were all pick 18s. Fyfe was 20. having pick 11 doesn't automatically get you a better pick than 18 and when Bolton is streaming out the front of our midfield and kicking 45 snags a year, who will be worried about if we picked at pick 11 or pick 18 that year? Imagine we pay 10&18 and bust at 11 only for Richmond to pick a star at 18. People need to lighten up.

Clubs are getting better at drafting

Young players are more professional and developed better in Jnr’s

Look at the pick numbers of the 30 best young players in the comp

Almost pointless to talk about 10-15 years ago as if everything is the same

A second year player just won the norm smith


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Would we have any interest in Grainger Barrass?? Maybe all he needs is to get home, be around family and get some confidence
It's amazing how poor that 2020 draft was. I thought DBG and McDonald were certainties for brilliant careers.

We came away pretty well with Chapman, Noddy, Walker and Treacy considering our draft picks.
 
It's amazing how poor that 2020 draft was. I thought DBG and McDonald were certainties for brilliant careers.

We came away pretty well with Chapman, Noddy, Walker and Treacy considering our draft picks.
Pretty impressive to hit with every pick from that draft. We haven’t even done that in much stronger drafts
 
Pretty impressive to hit with every pick from that draft. We haven’t even done that in much stronger drafts
David Walls first second year.

Edit: 'Walls, who led Fremantle’s recruiting team at the 2019 NAB AFL National Draft where the club secured three top 10 draft picks, said he was excited about the role.'

Guess he got promoted based on his 2019 results?
 
It's amazing how poor that 2020 draft was. I thought DBG and McDonald were certainties for brilliant careers.

We came away pretty well with Chapman, Noddy, Walker and Treacy considering our draft picks.

4 best 22 players from that draft.

Walls needs a statue
 
As much as I’d love Bolton I’m guessing I’m in the minority to me there’s a limit.
Even if he doesn’t come I think this current team makes finals and probably top 4 without him next year anyway.

Just organic growth from within the youth is plenty
Young with another preseason for the midfield ( new level )
Treacy holds at his new level
Draper confidence and more muscle as he grows
Chapman to be fit and comfortable with his body
Amiss the same another season and more strength
The big one for me will be NOD
He trained inside mid preseason
If his clots and leg are gone for good I think he can follow young’s projectory into an inside bull allowing young more opportunity forward of centre when resting.
To the point I think if whan and Robinson keep coming as prospects next trade season erasamus and Johnson maybe up for trade.

No one preseason picked treacy to improve
To be fair Draper was a who ?

Bolton would be great but he is not the be all of end all
So there has to be a point to walk away

Personally the 2 west Aussie boys I like are Allan urquart
Tall strong with mongrel
Bo Allen’s last 6 weeks is impressive
From a half back playing against men not kids
Huge upside
 
As much as I’d love Bolton I’m guessing I’m in the minority to me there’s a limit.
Even if he doesn’t come I think this current team makes finals and probably top 4 without him next year anyway.

Just organic growth from within the youth is plenty
Young with another preseason for the midfield ( new level )
Treacy holds at his new level
Draper confidence and more muscle as he grows
Chapman to be fit and comfortable with his body
Amiss the same another season and more strength
The big one for me will be NOD
He trained inside mid preseason
If his clots and leg are gone for good I think he can follow young’s projectory into an inside bull allowing young more opportunity forward of centre when resting.
To the point I think if whan and Robinson keep coming as prospects next trade season erasamus and Johnson maybe up for trade.

No one preseason picked treacy to improve
To be fair Draper was a who ?

Bolton would be great but he is not the be all of end all
So there has to be a point to walk away

Personally the 2 west Aussie boys I like are Allan urquart
Tall strong with mongrel
Bo Allen’s last 6 weeks is impressive
From a half back playing against men not kids
Huge upside
The glaring hole in our list is an elite small forward.
 

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Game Day 2024 Trade Period - Lian Yu - that liminal space between trade and draft.

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