Game Day 2024 Trade Period - Lian Yu - that liminal space between trade and draft.

[Tony_Clifton]

The wizard Watson

Ginnivan for the pies

Zane Duursma pick 4
Jaiden Stephenson pick 6 a little while back
Weddle is a second year player pick 18
Shaun Mannagh first year player but mature ager pick 36
Darcy Wilson pick 18
Calsher Dear f/s Hawks
Nate Cadey pick 10 more of a key forward
Premiership player Logan Morris more of a key forward
Bailey Humphrey pick 6 2022
Phillipou has a great first year pick 10 2022
Rachele kicked 17 goals from 13 games in his first year. Pick 6
Kai Lohmann pick 20. First 2 years cruelled by injury but kicked 37 goals from 27 games in this, his third year
Paul Curtis pick 36 he's pretty effective even for north

 

[_007_]

Would that happen?

Clark, Walker and Chapman would be miles ahead, and we'd still have Wagner and Worner contending for spots and depth.

HBF is a position of strength for us, unless someone is shifting wing/midfield/forward.

We play one of Wagner or Aish. He is replacing them and likely from season 1.

 

[heypenny]

Weightman, Kozzie and Rachelle all settled into the forward line early in their careers too. Kozzie kicked 40+ goals in his second year.

 

[Bud]

The compromise for Bolton
Freo give 10, 11 and 18
Richmond give Bolton and 13 (received from Gold coast for Rioli)
Will Bo Allan still be there at 13?

 

[Wee Jessies]

As much as I’d love Bolton I’m guessing I’m in the minority to me there’s a limit.
Even if he doesn’t come I think this current team makes finals and probably top 4 without him next year anyway.

Just organic growth from within the youth is plenty
Young with another preseason for the midfield ( new level )
Treacy holds at his new level
Draper confidence and more muscle as he grows
Chapman to be fit and comfortable with his body
Amiss the same another season and more strength
The big one for me will be NOD
He trained inside mid preseason
If his clots and leg are gone for good I think he can follow young’s projectory into an inside bull allowing young more opportunity forward of centre when resting.
To the point I think if whan and Robinson keep coming as prospects next trade season erasamus and Johnson maybe up for trade.

No one preseason picked treacy to improve
To be fair Draper was a who ?

Bolton would be great but he is not the be all of end all
So there has to be a point to walk away

Personally the 2 west Aussie boys I like are Allan urquart
Tall strong with mongrel
Bo Allen’s last 6 weeks is impressive
From a half back playing against men not kids
Huge upside

I don't think you are in the minority. If no one targeted getting to Freo this trade period I think most people are positive about the shape of our list and would be happy to go the draft and back in some organic growth and injury luck to put us in the mix next year.

But greatness leads to greatness. So you should be looking to win every trade period, then win every draft, then train harder and smarter than every other club, have the most contemporary game plan and ultimately have quality across all lines.

If Walls gets Bolton to the club is has done a very good job, if he gets Bolton and gives us a crack at Allan or equivalent he will have done a great job.

 

[MadMundy]

You heard it here first, ChatGPT believes 10 and 18 is fair:

"Shai Bolton

15

Shai Bolton

Age

26

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

is generally viewed as a highly valuable player, given his combination of skill, speed, and game-changing ability. In the current AFL landscape, he could be worth a top-10 pick or a combination of high picks and potentially a player, depending on the trading team's needs.

His age, potential for growth, and recent performances would also play a crucial role in determining his value. Overall, I’d say a fair deal for Bolton might involve a pick in the top 10, potentially alongside a later pick or player, reflecting his status as a key player for his team."

 

[Wee Jessies]

The compromise for Bolton
Freo give 10, 11 and 18
Richmond give Bolton and 13 (received from Gold coast for Rioli)
Will Bo Allan still be there at 13?

Looks like there will be a good quality kid at 13 and Allan would be a great chance I would expect. Sort of why you question why West Coast even put that pick on the table and don't just put the pick in the 20s and an F2 up instead.

 

[freo_leo29]

The compromise for Bolton
Freo give 10, 11 and 18
Richmond give Bolton and 13 (received from Gold coast for Rioli)
Will Bo Allan still be there at 13?

Yeah he will be but I think the blues take Berry in that scenario


I'm big on Berry again, really hoping we take him at 11, looks exactly the player we need

 

[Polo342]

Genuine question. Why is Bo Allen rated so highly? You see all the Vic kids getting crazy numbers in VFL where Allens numbers are quite low??

 

[Vimal Anand]

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Purpletown]

You heard it here first, ChatGPT believes 10 and 18 is fair:

"Shai Bolton is generally viewed as a highly valuable player, given his combination of skill, speed, and game-changing ability. In the current AFL landscape, he could be worth a top-10 pick or a combination of high picks and potentially a player, depending on the trading team's needs.

His age, potential for growth, and recent performances would also play a crucial role in determining his value. Overall, I’d say a fair deal for Bolton might involve a pick in the top 10, potentially alongside a later pick or player, reflecting his status as a key player for his team."

Chat GPT makes more sense than all of the so called journalists filling the airways with dribble.

 

[Wee Jessies]

His Manger recon’s it’s BS. Hasn’t been offered a contract by Carlton at all.

Seems Acres huge contract has broken the bank.

Was it Owies that had to cancel his holiday as he didn't have a contract offer? I note that ABC have picked up the story as well, they would be pretty diligent on this sort of thing wouldn't they, so maybe there is something to it.

 

[MadMundy]

Chat GPT makes more sense than all of the so called journalists filling the airways with dribble.

**** it, I'd do it for Pick 10 and Will Brodie if that was ever a chance.

 

[freo1997]

If we don’t get Pickett, should we throw a F3 for Owies? I know nothing about the fella, but seems a good money ball option looking at his stats.

 

[freo_leo29]

If we don’t get Pickett, should we throw a F3 for Owies? I know nothing about the fella, but seems a good money ball option looking at his stats.

Not what we need, less pressure than Sturt who plays the leading forward role better, if Sturt plays a full season he clears Owies in goals

 

[MadMundy]

I mean I don't want Owies coming in, he can clearly kick goals though....

He finished 3rd in Carlton's goalkicking and would finish 3rd in ours by a mile ahead of Frederick. He kicked 23 to Owies' 33, just two goals behind Amiss.

 

[Wee Jessies]

Super optimistic, slightly cracked out hypothetical for fun. Don’t take this too seriously.

We trade 10, 11 and 30 (3353 points) out for St Kilda’s 7 and 8 (3195 points)

We use 7 for Bolton and 51 coming back our way, trade 8 (1551 points) for Sydney’s 19 and 22 (1793 points)

We then trade 18, 19 and 51 (2192 points) for GWS 15 and 16 (2179 points)

We go into the draft with 15, 16, 22, 67. Which would likely have us missing out on Allan who would be a surplus to our needs anyway, but Twomey has Berry (small forward) projected late teens and Moraes (wingman) projected mid twenty’s who I’ve liked the look of both. That’s not taking into account potential sliders and would still leave 16 or 22 to play with.

Bolton, Berry, Moraes and a 1st to play with without trading into next year.

View attachment 2135572

No offence mate but might want to read that GWS trade again. Pick 51 is not getting those picks upgraded.
I don't think 30 unlocks the Saints picks either.
I also wouldn't do that trade with Sydney if we held 8.

Alternative:
10 11 18 to Saints for 7 and 8
7 and F2 for Bolton
Keep 8 or split with GWS for 15 and 16 if they would do it

 

[Hamann188]

As Hogan said in his B&F speech he had no other takers except GWS so we couldn't have done a lot better with that one except for properly mentor him like GWS ended up doing.

I'll die on this hill, but I will never consider the Hogan trade in a dud. I will however consider the Hogan trade out a dud. I still maintain he would have become the forward he is (again) today if we had put the time and care into him.

We were all so desperate to get him in to the team because we knew he was a superstar. He IS a superstar.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, we traded the wrong KPF out of the team, had we persisted with him, given him the time and "love" that he needed, nobody would be talking about how "the Hogan trade was an unmitigated disaster". We'd all be talking about how threatening a (quadruple) JJJJ forward line looks.

 

[what a game]

Genuine question. Why is Bo Allen rated so highly? You see all the Vic kids getting crazy numbers in VFL where Allens numbers are quite low??

If you watch the wafl you would know especially the finals. The big difference in tac cup is no tagging and a different set up to the 6/6/6 rule which means midfielders have a lot more space and time than colts who play against men in the sanfl and wafl comps
Bo played most of the early season in wafl on a half back flanker due to injuries played midfield in the championships . And went to a new level against his own age group. Came back to peel got injured then forced his way back into league for finals. Outside NOD he was the standout at peel for me in the finals. His combine tells me he still has upside

 

[Wee Jessies]

10 + 18 is a fair stance, but yeah pick values is a poor metric. Approximating using past trades helps, but even that can vary based on the depth and quality of a draft class. Combining that and adjusting using pick offers being made in that specific year is probably your best bet.

Expected games is probably the table/chart that gets you there closer than any 1 table/chart (https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/expected-games/picks), but even that doesn't really account for the fact that list spots are finite. If I took all 10 picks btwn 31 and 40, I'd probably be as likely to find a gem with 1 of them as someone who takes pick 1. But I've used 9 more list spots, which the other can use in any number of ways.

Doesn't the weighting of the pick values line up fairly well to that table? Average games by 10 and 18 equal around pick 3/4.

I know this has come up in the past and people have rightly stated that games played by high end picks are skewed as clubs will invest more in them to justify the draft selection and they are also more likely to get a second chance at other clubs for the same reason.

I also think that another flaw is fear, where clubs are reluctant to trade out of top picks in case they become the next Sheezel. So a draft team that backs themselves in might be happy to do pick 5 for 10 and 18 if they feel the draft is even and two quality kids are better than one. But ultimately that fear of future scrutiny results in an exaggerated price being set and that price is generally only paid by clubs with picks to burn.

 

[Wee Jessies]

I'll die on this hill, but I will never consider the Hogan trade in a dud. I will however consider the Hogan trade out a dud. I still maintain he would have become the forward he is (again) today if we had put the time and care into him.

We were all so desperate to get him in to the team because we knew he was a superstar. He IS a superstar.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, we traded the wrong KPF out of the team, had we persisted with him, given him the time and "love" that he needed, nobody would be talking about how "the Hogan trade was an unmitigated disaster". We'd all be talking about how threatening a (quadruple) JJJJ forward line looks.

I agree on the trade being the right call but geez he did a lot wrong with us that he doesn't seem to have been doing at GWS. Not sure why he chose not to fully invest in us. Ultimately Jessie got himself sacked by Fremantle in my view and we needed to make that stand for the sake of our standards. If we gave him a cuddle he probably just keeps breaking the rules, we take the ultimate hard line and he wises up. No win situation.

If Hogan stays does he get better with us? Does Treacy and Amiss actually get games around him? Just have to move on sometimes.

 

[Van_Dyke]

Did basically anything interesting happen today

 

[freo_leo29]

Did basically anything interesting happen today

Only thing that happened was Graham to WCE

Nothing really leaked from club discussions today


Need a domino to fall, likely GC are the key to unlocking the period, they have their hands in dealings with Tigers, Port and the Pies, once something falls there then others will start.


Tigers for Brissy's pick is probably the most likely trade over the next couple of days, now that Graham compo is in

 

[Midnite65]

I'll die on this hill, but I will never consider the Hogan trade in a dud. I will however consider the Hogan trade out a dud. I still maintain he would have become the forward he is (again) today if we had put the time and care into him.

We were all so desperate to get him in to the team because we knew he was a superstar. He IS a superstar.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, we traded the wrong KPF out of the team, had we persisted with him, given him the time and "love" that he needed, nobody would be talking about how "the Hogan trade was an unmitigated disaster". We'd all be talking about how threatening a (quadruple) JJJJ forward line looks.

To be fair, all though we could have done a better job with him, a lot of it fell on Hogan and his attitude from the time he came here, he lacked so much maturity and never gave us the professionalism that he needed to. It was only once he escaped the limelight, realised it was his last chance and then had Mumme lock him in his backyard that he decided to finally grow up.

 

[Wee Jessies]

Was touted as a better prospect than Walker too originally was he not?

He was until up to the week before and Essendon (who bid before Western) and Collingwood I think were starting to sniff around and I think we were worried about an even earlier bid.