AFL Player # 9: Dylan Shiel

[Beerfish]

Contract Status: Out of contract 2024 2025
My Boy Draft 2024: Pick 35, eth-dog

 

[frodos gardener]

Centre Clearances:
Rounds 1-9: 23 @ 2.9 p/g
Rounds 10-18: 37 @ 4.6 p/g

To put this in perspective, the AFL record for centre bounce clearances is 87 from Darcy Parish

3

Darcy Parish

Age

27

Ht

180cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.4

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

3.3

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

9.1

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

3star

CL

3.1

4star

D

22.2

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

14.6

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

last year (previous to the past few years it was Brett Ratten

Brett Ratten

Age

53

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.4

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

10.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

3.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.4

5star

K

13.8

5star

HB

12.6

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

's 85 in 1999). Shiel is currently on 60. If he averaged close to his current output for a full year, he'd smash the record.

 

[ghostdog]

The defensive ratings do not take in any team defence stuff like two way running or defensive actions like zone set up or roll over defensive actions.

No, but they do compare the two players for those metrics and show a difference.

 

[Keystone agony]

The defensive ratings do not take in any team defence stuff like two way running or defensive actions like zone set up or roll over defensive actions.

What metrics are in place for those?

The metric shows his pressure and intent is better than Shiel?

Anyway they can play together in the same side in the same centre square. Plenty of successful sides have had 2 similar mids before and we wont be the last

At the end of the day, do it when it matters otherwise I couldnt care less

 

[ghostdog]

It's a funny thing, early in the season and we were crying out for him to be better.

Now he's better, people are upset that he's not got 2 goals to go with his 29 disposals, 5 tackles, 7 clearances, 9 i50s and 452m gained from the weekend.

High bar for the bloke.

Dylan needs to kick goals when he's got the shot. There's nothing wrong with high expectations, lest we invite ourselves to be mired in mediocrity.

 

[ant555]

What metrics are in place for those?

The metric shows his pressure and intent is better than Shiel?

Anyway they can play together in the same side in the same centre square. Plenty of successful sides have had 2 similar mids before and we wont be the last

At the end of the day, do it when it matters otherwise I couldnt care less

You are seriously asking that question ? Optical metrics. When you see the opposition running free up the ground while our blokes are just jogging along 30 meters behind. Early this year both where crap defensively.
It has yet to be proven they can both play in the same side and both play well.

 

[ant555]

No, but they do compare the two players for those metrics and show a difference.

That Parish over the season is marginally ahead in pressure acts and the rest of them are totally line ball. No real surprise there as Shiel was in very average form early.

 

[ghostdog]

That Parish over the season is marginally ahead in pressure acts and the rest of them are totally line ball. No real surprise there as Shiel was in very average form early.

No, those are career aversges.

 

[ant555]

No, those are career aversges.

Still marginal.

 

[Keystone agony]

You are seriously asking that question ? Optical metrics. When you see the opposition running free up the ground while our blokes are just jogging along 30 meters behind. Early this year both where crap defensively.
It has yet to be proven they can both play in the same side and both play well.

Thats my whole point it isnt really measureable statistically outside of what was provided in that screen cap

 

[ant555]

Thats my whole point it isnt really measureable statistically outside of what was provided in that screen cap

So why do coaches set game plans around team defense then ? how does a B grade role player like Snelling finish in the top 3 of a B&F.
There may not be an actual stat for it but it is easy to see if you know what you are looking for. It even comes down to something as simple as not ball watching and actually just stand near someone so that when the opposition has the footy they are looking at a potential one on one if they go there.
Have spent years and years watching and working via some development coaching on it. The simple basic is work rate. Durham does not get a stat for it but he is working back and helping the defenders and next step he is pushing forward behind the defense.
If you watch Shiel when he is playing well he will be near someone a decent amount of times when the opposition has the footy. He is not a great defender but it is the effort to be in the right spot when you have not got the footy and do it more times than the opposition.
On top of all of this is this is not just something I have looked at via Essendon games or watching games on TV. Over the journey it has been honed watching non Essendon games live as well as live under 18 or VFL games. In fact you pick up a lot more going to a game where you are not really invested at all in the sides that are playing. Over a season I will go to 10 or so non Essendon games simply to watch the tactics and see what you can not see watching it on TV.
Even at Essendon games I spend more time looking at how the ground is set up and who is where than I do actually looking where the footy is. I generally watch the replay a few times to look at the closer in stuff.
It is very measurable if you know what you are looking for and you have spent a bit of time training yourself to not simply watch a game as a supporter. It is important to be seeing a lot of live footy to get a real eye for it. You can not get the full picture just watching it on TV.

 

[ghostdog]

Still marginal.

Maybe so, but those numbers are illustrative of the point I was making, which is that there are a couple of points of difference that can actually be demonstrated.

In any case, I was initially referring to scoreboard impact. I just thought it would be interesting to look at defence indicators. A stat that would be useful might be metres running back to defend. They give us metres gained so I don't know why they can't give us that too.

 

[ant555]

Maybe so, but those numbers are illustrative of the point I was making, which is that there are a couple of points of difference that can actually be demonstrated.

In any case, I was initially referring to scoreboard impact. I just thought it would be interesting to look at defence indicators. A stat that would be useful might be metres running back to defend. They give us metres gained so I don't know why they can't give us that too.

Where are the points of difference ?
There is actually only one stat there that is not marginal and that is goal accuracy. The rest are all line ball.
Pretty much everything you can compare on stats pro is line ball.

 

[Albertross]

So why do coaches set game plans around team defense then ? how does a B grade role player like Snelling finish in the top 3 of a B&F.
There may not be an actual stat for it but it is easy to see if you know what you are looking for. It even comes down to something as simple as not ball watching and actually just stand near someone so that when the opposition has the footy they are looking at a potential one on one if they go there.
Have spent years and years watching and working via some development coaching on it. The simple basic is work rate. Durham does not get a stat for it but he is working back and helping the defenders and next step he is pushing forward behind the defense.
If you watch Shiel when he is playing well he will be near someone a decent amount of times when the opposition has the footy. He is not a great defender but it is the effort to be in the right spot when you have not got the footy and do it more times than the opposition.
On top of all of this is this is not just something I have looked at via Essendon games or watching games on TV. Over the journey it has been honed watching non Essendon games live as well as live under 18 or VFL games. In fact you pick up a lot more going to a game where you are not really invested at all in the sides that are playing. Over a season I will go to 10 or so non Essendon games simply to watch the tactics and see what you can not see watching it on TV.
Even at Essendon games I spend more time looking at how the ground is set up and who is where than I do actually looking where the footy is. I generally watch the replay a few times to look at the closer in stuff.
It is very measurable if you know what you are looking for and you have spent a bit of time training yourself to not simply watch a game as a supporter. It is important to be seeing a lot of live footy to get a real eye for it. You can not get the full picture just watching it on TV.

So I can hope you can answer this for me then. In regards to Jones, he doesn't seem to be having much of an impact, so much so that posters were saying he needs to go back to the twos on the weekend.

However, during the Brisbane match, they showed behind the goals footage, highlighting Peter Wright. It appeared to me at the time that Jones would lead in an opposite direction to Wright, as you would expect so that he takes his opponent away from Wright.

Watching that though, it appeared that possibly we are to focused on Wright as I thought Jones was in a better position at times, with a good lead, to have it kicked to him, but the ball went to Wright.

I know he is in good form (Wright that is), but it appears as we are too focused on him.

It also appears that if the ball is kicked to Jones, there is a greater chance of Wright crashing the pack than the other way around. Thoughts?

 

[ghostdog]

Where are the points of difference ?
There is actually only one stat there that is not marginal and that is goal accuracy. The rest are all line ball.
Pretty much everything you can compare on stats pro is line ball.

I suppose you could look at it and say the designations as above average or average or whatever can be a bit misleading, but the bottom line is numbers are numbers. There are points of difference across their respective careers, and goal accuracy was my primary focus anyway. The rest we can split hairs about all day, but when Shiel squibs the shot, I see red.

 

[ant555]

So I can hope you can answer this for me then. In regards to Jones, he doesn't seem to be having much of an impact, so much so that posters were saying he needs to go back to the twos on the weekend.

However, during the Brisbane match, they showed behind the goals footage, highlighting Peter Wright. It appeared to me at the time that Jones would lead in an opposite direction to Wright, as you would expect so that he takes his opponent away from Wright.

Watching that though, it appeared that possibly we are to focused on Wright as I thought Jones was in a better position at times, with a good lead, to have it kicked to him, but the ball went to Wright.

I know he is in good form (Wright that is), but it appears as we are too focused on him.

It also appears that if the ball is kicked to Jones, there is a greater chance of Wright crashing the pack than the other way around. Thoughts?

I would agree with what you are seeing. Jones will obviously have his struggles as he has missed a massive amount of the pre season / season but he does not always lead to the same spot as Wright which drags other defenders away. As you say sometimes it can become a situation where Wright becomes too much the focal point and they will need to adjust it as we go forward.
Jones is basically just learning on the job at the moment but still managing to find a couple of goals a game most weeks and they have to play a good defender on him. His work rate has been better each week as he has gone along. It will be about getting the balance between Wright / Jones/Stringer and even Langford better as we look to improve.

 

[ant555]

I suppose you could look at it and say the designations as above average or average or whatever can be a bit misleading, but the bottom line is numbers are numbers. There are points of difference across their respective careers, and goal accuracy was my primary focus anyway. The rest we can split hairs about all day, but when Shiel squibs the shot, I see red.

Numbers are numbers but you are talking very small percentages. In most cases under 1%.
I do not think it is a lie that in general Parish is a better shot at goal. That is the one number that does have a margin.
Shiel has never been a great shot at goal which is why he has kicked 83.106 compared to parish 48.46.
People always have angst when they see the weak points of a player. Oddly enough Shiel has actually set up quite a few chances with good passes rather than simply blazing away as well but it gets passed over. How many times do you see a miss during a game from a player trying to kick a miracle when he has open players ?
It is his weakness and that was evident before he came to us and he got smashed on here for his poor goal kicking against the Hawks when he did take the shot.
The worst kick was the one he should have hit and that was Wright on the lead.

 

[ghostdog]

Numbers are numbers but you are talking very small percentages. In most cases under 1%.
I do not think it is a lie that in general Parish is a better shot at goal. That is the one number that does have a margin.
Shiel has never been a great shot at goal which is why he has kicked 83.106 compared to parish 48.46.
People always have angst when they see the weak points of a player. Oddly enough Shiel has actually set up quite a few chances with good passes rather than simply blazing away as well but it gets passed over. How many times do you see a miss during a game from a player trying to kick a miracle when he has open players ?
It is his weakness and that was evident before he came to us and he got smashed on here for his poor goal kicking against the Hawks when he did take the shot.
The worst kick was the one he should have hit and that was Wright on the lead.

I'm a huge Shiel fan. I just wish there was something that could be done about his goal accuracy. He would seriously go to the next level. I don't know anything about the body mechanics of goal kicking, but his method must be doing something wrong. Anyway, maybe he's too conditioned in his method to change anything at his age.

 

[Keystone agony]

So why do coaches set game plans around team defense then ? how does a B grade role player like Snelling finish in the top 3 of a B&F.
There may not be an actual stat for it but it is easy to see if you know what you are looking for. It even comes down to something as simple as not ball watching and actually just stand near someone so that when the opposition has the footy they are looking at a potential one on one if they go there.
Have spent years and years watching and working via some development coaching on it. The simple basic is work rate. Durham does not get a stat for it but he is working back and helping the defenders and next step he is pushing forward behind the defense.
If you watch Shiel when he is playing well he will be near someone a decent amount of times when the opposition has the footy. He is not a great defender but it is the effort to be in the right spot when you have not got the footy and do it more times than the opposition.
On top of all of this is this is not just something I have looked at via Essendon games or watching games on TV. Over the journey it has been honed watching non Essendon games live as well as live under 18 or VFL games. In fact you pick up a lot more going to a game where you are not really invested at all in the sides that are playing. Over a season I will go to 10 or so non Essendon games simply to watch the tactics and see what you can not see watching it on TV.
Even at Essendon games I spend more time looking at how the ground is set up and who is where than I do actually looking where the footy is. I generally watch the replay a few times to look at the closer in stuff.
It is very measurable if you know what you are looking for and you have spent a bit of time training yourself to not simply watch a game as a supporter. It is important to be seeing a lot of live footy to get a real eye for it. You can not get the full picture just watching it on TV.

All im saying based on those stats is that Parish pressure is 10% better than Shiel

That would be apart of pressure rating

As you say where a player should and shouldnt be setup is probably best critiqued by visual avenues and that all comes down to football knowledge. Thats almost more beneficial to be a team measure rather than an individual measure. How often a team transitions ball from back 50 to forward 50 is the indicator there

I would be interested to see the pressure for just 2022 alone between the 2

Also rebound 50s would also be an indicator for who is working back (As the 2 are identical many say)

Fwiw Shiel, Zerrett and Parish have all improved in defensive transition mindset and its easy to see them making more of an effort and not just making it look pretend

I wish we had bigger challenges in the last 5 weeks, to truly see it

We got Sydney off a dominating elimination final like win vs saints

We got Gold Coast off a huge comeback win against Richmond, that was celebrated

We got Brisbane without half their best 22

We got done by the eagles

Saints i feel like the pressure rating was zero and at Marvel i back us most times. Were 9/12 there in the past 18 months

Maybe im making up reasons but as i said a month ago im not judging them off the rest of this year but off the first 8 weeks next year. This means nothing. We will only know next year. Hopefully the pies and tigers are a decent guage on the run home but what the midfield and side is doing is based on the first 8 weeks next year

 

[ant555]

All im saying based on those stats is that Parish pressure is 10% better than Shiel

That would be apart of pressure rating

As you say where a player should and shouldnt be setup is probably best critiqued by visual avenues and that all comes down to football knowledge, Thats almost more beneficial to be a team measure rather than an individual measure. How often a team rebounds ball from back 50 to forward 50 ia the indicator there

I would be interested to see the pressure for just 2022 alone between the 2

Also rebound 50s would also be an indicator for who is getting back and repelling the ball

Fwiw Shiel, Zerrett and Parish have all improved in defensive transition and its easy to see them making more of an effort and not just making it look pretend

I wish we had bigger challenges in the last 5 weeks, to truly see it

We got Sydney off a dominating elimination final like win vs saints

We got Gold Coast off a huge comeback win against Richmond, that was celebrated

We got Brisbane without half their best 22

We got done by the eagles

The only stat that Parish is more than 5% better is goal kicking accuracy. There is no 10% difference in any of the pressure stats.
Pressure acts it is 17.5 to 19.2 average per game .Less than 2 per game.
Defensive half pressure acts it is 8.4 to 8.9.
And I have never said Shiel has been great. All I have ever said is he has shown that when he has played well he has been better at finding the position in the zone or team defense. My argument is the are the same player at their best. The stats are that close it is not funny.
As for the rest of the dribble about who and when we got them. You beat the sides as they come. We are improved on what we have been doing. We do not win any of these games on how we played at times in the first 11 weeks. Not really sure what the **** it has to do with Parish not being a great two way player and his weak point being average defensive actions.

 

[Keystone agony]

There is no 10% difference in any of the pressure stats.
Pressure acts it is 17.5 to 19.2 average per game .

Wah?

 

[ant555]

I'm a huge Shiel fan. I just wish there was something that could be done about his goal accuracy. He would seriously go to the next level. I don't know anything about the body mechanics of goal kicking, but his method must be doing something wrong. Anyway, maybe he's too conditioned in his method to change anything at his age.

It is goal kicking. Has anyone got an answer to why it is so foreign to so many players despite it being the essence of the game ?
Why does Max King or Joe miss so many ? Why can Redman nail on on the run from 60 but not hit a set shot from 45 ? Mysteries of the universe.
Kicking at goal is the one thing that seems to never improve despite the level of professionalism.

 

[ant555]

Wah?

Are you saying that a bloke that averages under 2 pressure acts a game over his career is massively better ?

 

[Keystone agony]

Are you saying that a bloke that averages under 2 pressure acts a game over his career is massively better ?

Im saying its 10% better yes

 

[ant555]

Im saying its 10% better yes

I am saying you are clutching at straws . On top of this often the pressure acts have zero relevance to defensive actions.
1.7 times a game better. Really. Is that how you are going to say that Parish is 10% better at defending
Defending. That is what we are actually talking about ?

 

[Albertross]

Im saying its 10% better yes

Technically, you are .05% off.