A lottery will not stop tanking

[scottydeewah]

I hear so much about how a draft lottery similar to the NBA will stop tanking, yet if we take the NBA as the evidence it wont. Teams tank just as much and it is in fact openly excepted and expected that a team should tank.

The lottery ensures that tanking wont always pay off but it wont stop teams from doing it. Another system is needed if we are to stop the practice.

 

[Hollow Knight]

NBA teams have 5 key players on the court at one time. One quality player in the draft can turn an entire team around.

The fact that AFL teams are much larger and less dependent on one player, combined with a lottery, would reduce tanking, I'm sure of that.

 

[huggy_b]

I hear so much about how a draft lottery similar to the NBA will stop tanking, yet if we take the NBA as the evidence it wont. Teams tank just as much and it is in fact openly accepted and expected that a team should tank.

The lottery ensures that tanking wont always pay off but it wont stop teams from doing it. Another system is needed if we are to stop the practice.

I disagree, and I'm that confident in my assertion that I'm not even going to render an argument to counter yours.

The defence rests your honour.

 

[scottydeewah]

Huh? That makes very little sense.

If teams tank now in the AFL for one player, why would they not tank in a lottery. Coming last still means you have a greater chance than 9th of the number 1 pick. So if you are coming 10th you may as well aim for 16th and have more balls in the lottery.

Thats what they do in the NBA!

 

[huggy_b]

Huh? That makes very little sense.

If teams tank now in the AFL for one player, why would they not tank in a lottery. Coming last still means you have a greater chance than 9th of the number 1 pick. So if you are coming 10th you may as well aim for 16th and have more balls in the lottery.

Thats what they do in the NBA!

But its still no guarantee. You may finish 16th, but get pick 7 or something. The odds are in your favour, but no guarantee like it is now.

 

[Chewy]

Let's start ANOTHER thread on lotteries and tanking. Just what the world needs.

The ONLY reason why a team might consider tanking is to receive a priority pick.

A priority pick = 1 more 17 year old gun.
But it doesn't really matter whether your team gets pick 1,2,3,4 or 5
No point losing games just so we can draft Bryce Gibbs instead Joel Selwood


Demetriou: please scrap the priority pick, so we can put an end to all this "tanking" horseshit

 

[Butane]

I hate the idea of a lottery. What if your team just ____ing sucks balls and you get pick 8, 3 years in a row even though you've won 3 spoons.

What if you finish 9th but have had a badly injury plagued season and then you get pick 1 or 2 only for the next season to gain all your players back and win the flag.

I just don't like it. And I don't think it's the answer. Teams will still tank to get more balls in the lottery anyway - They do that in the NBA as well.

 

[scottydeewah]

But its still no guarantee. You may finish 16th, but get pick 7 or something. The odds are in your favour, but no guarantee like it is now.

it is a guarantee though that if teams will tank to get an edge an edge is given to the last places team.

 

[GPW1]

the only solution to stop tanking is to get rid of the draft (which is obviously not going to happen).

 

[Corpuscles]

I think tanking is a sensational idea for most clubs

Will someone tell Bomber T about it... please!!!



No real problem if they remove the PP!

Knighta, Bailey, Harvey have to show something or out on their ass!

Wallets same result.... different reasons!!!!!

Chocco would be boned and gutted at Port, even if close to a spoon!

Woosha... don't worry it is just..... withdrawal symtoms!!

 

[huggy_b]

And the draft itself is a lottery - plenty of players who were touted as superstars have failed in the bright lights of AFL. And equally a number of lower picks have shone.

And lastly, tanking != success.

A mass of high draft picks isn't necessarily the recipe for success.

 

[Lion El'Johnson]

Meh, you only need to put the first 3 picks as a lottery, to stop the shameful 16th vs 15th placed games.

 

[mollyfud]

Have two words that should end any talk of lottery drafts for the AFL:
LA Clippers!

We done now?
Molly

 

[818295]

What if you finish 9th but have had a badly injury plagued season and then you get pick 1 or 2 only for the next season to gain all your players back and win the flag.
QUOTE]
That's a fair point but unlikely.
What is a certainty is that most struggling clubs once they are a third into a year do what they can to prepare for the following year. It brings players into the seniors who are not up to it and prematurely ends the careers of players who may still be playing good footy if they were at a club still in contention.
This situation where clubs who are near the bottom are doing their utmost to lose is a disgrace. I think the lottery would at least put doubts in clubs minds and if they went ahead and tanked regardless ( as you claim) then stiff cheddar if the team they lost to gets a higher pick.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

i like the idea of the lottery. There is no guarantee you will get 1st pick but then a team that blows but comes 10th could pull the number 1 pick.
Look at the Chicago Bulls in the NBA, had a 1% chance of winning the draft and they got it. Brilliant.

 

[mollyfud]

i like the idea of the lottery. There is no guarantee you will get 1st pick but then a team that blows but comes 10th could pull the number 1 pick.
Look at the Chicago Bulls in the NBA, had a 1% chance of winning the draft and they got it. Brilliant.

So you are happy for a 12-10 team getting the first pick?
Molly

 

[Hollow Knight]

So you are happy for a 12-10 team getting the first pick?
Molly

I am, as long as the odds are weighted against them.

 

[mollyfud]

I am, as long as the odds are weighted against them.

Fair enough. But if you are weighting the draft, purely under the lottery (no need to look at compared to the old system as its gone anyway) system, you are still better off tanking (surgery, kids, etc,etc) as you have more balls and players that are ready for the next year and kids that have played games!
Molly

 

[Hollow Knight]

Fair enough. But if you are weighting the draft, purely under the lottery (no need to look at compared to the old system as its gone anyway) system, you are still better off tanking (surgery, kids, etc,etc) as you have more balls and players that are ready for the next year and kids that have played games!
Molly

The incentive is still there, but it is a far more riskier prospect.

Would you trade 400 dollars for a guaranteed 500 dollars? Yep.

Would you trade 400 dollars for a choice of 5 unmarked envelopes... four of them containing 300 dollars, one containing 500 dollars? You may, or may not. But the incentive system has changed.

Very rough and clumsy analogy, but the point is clear enough.

 

[Khan]

Personally I would prefer that the first eight picks go to teams 9-16 in that order then revert to reverse order. Then a team that is just outside the eight will get a boost and maybe make it next year.


Khan

 

[mollyfud]

The incentive is still there, but it is a far more riskier prospect.

Would you trade 400 dollars for a guaranteed 500 dollars? Yep.

Would you trade 400 dollars for a choice of 5 unmarked envelopes... four of them containing 300 dollars, one containing 500 dollars? You may, or may not. But the incentive system has changed.

Very rough and clumsy analogy, but the point is clear enough.

If at the same time no matter which system I am getting 100 dollars more then I was getting if I didn't play this game at all, I would still play either of these games because I am no worse off!

That is what list management form of tanking is, getting 100 dollars (in this analogy)!

Does this make it clearer why it doesn't matter if there is a lottery or not?

Plus a lottery could change us from one of the most competitive leagues to just a league, with teams that wither on the vine. No Thanks. I will take the devil we know!
Molly

 

[THRILLHO]

Personally I would prefer that the first eight picks go to teams 9-16 in that order then revert to reverse order. Then a team that is just outside the eight will get a boost and maybe make it next year.


Khan

Yeah, but you support Richmond so obviously you have a vested interest in that idea.

 

[Hollow Knight]

If at the same time no matter which system I am getting 100 dollars more then I was getting if I didn't play this game at all, I would still play either of these games because I am no worse off!

That is what list management form of tanking is, getting 100 dollars (in this analogy)!

Does this make it clearer why it doesn't matter if there is a lottery or not?

Plus a lottery could change us from one of the most competitive leagues to just a league, with teams that wither on the vine. No Thanks. I will take the devil we know!
Molly

Yeah but the reduced incentive forces clubs to weigh up the benefits of getting the number 1 pick (the chances of which is now reduced do to the lottery system) and the negatives of tanking.

 

[mollyfud]

Yeah but the reduced incentive forces clubs to weight up the benefits of tanking (now reduced do to the lottery system) and the negatives of tanking.

Your missing the whole point! The incentive has never been the pick, that is the bonus! The incentive is having your players ready or more experienced for the next year!

I am assuming you are talking about surgery, killing old players careers and playing kids as being tanking, right? If you just mean losing on purpose (not with the things just mentioned), there is penalties for this! The problem is proving it. Plus if it has happened its happen very, very rarely and getting rid of Priority picks pretty much fixes it!
Molly

 

[Hollow Knight]

Your missing the whole point! The incentive has never been the pick, that is the bonus! The incentive is having your players ready or more experienced for the next year!

I am assuming you are talking about surgery, killing old players careers and playing kids as being tanking, right? If you just mean losing on purpose (not with the things just mentioned), there is penalties for this! The problem is proving it. Plus if it has happened its happen very, very rarely and getting rid of Priority picks pretty much fixes it!
Molly

I agree that the priority pick is the biggest incentive to tank overall, but I fail to see how the incentive to tank doesn't exist without the priority pick.