Would love to have 2-3 picks from 15-30. There will be some diamonds that will be missed up the top
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Traded Adam Saad [traded to Carlton with #48 and #78 for #8 and #87]
- Thread starter Ambrosia
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Would love to have 2-3 picks from 15-30. There will be some diamonds that will be missed up the top
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Red Black and Blue
Brownlow Medallist
It’s about the quality of the players not where they are taken. If you have pick 2 but the top 100 players are Ngas or father sons pick 2 isn’t worth much.
Largely redundant if a club has or hasn’t traded a first round pick for a hbf and won a premiership. Fact is, gun half backs/small defenders play key roles in premierships. By all means go to the draft in the hope of securing a gun with an unknown quantity. Alternatively, cough up a decent pick for a proven gun in his prime and arguably the best small defender in the game.
FYI I’d much rather keep Saad than trade for
Pick 7+ as would any sane football supporter.
The rumour is if Carlton take pick 7 to the draft they'll be taking Bruhn anyway, the very player it's been intimated Geelong want.
Seriously doubt the pick will be available on draft night, unless all targets are already drafted.
- Aug 6, 2013
- 3,278
- 2,705
- AFL Club
- Essendon
I don't get how people don't get that the top end talent of the draft being tied to academies or F/S lowers the value of high draft picks. It makes a difference when pick 13 gets you (theoretically) the 20th highest value player in the talent pool rather than the 13th.
BoundbyKreuze
Cancelled
- Feb 9, 2020
- 1,463
- 2,997
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- Carlton
It can also increase the value of the higher picks because otherwise you’re picking middle of the second round.
- Oct 18, 2016
- 5,068
- 9,798
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- Carlton
- Banned
- #957
What you don't get is that recruiters have names attached to these picks already.
That makes no difference at all.
As if the same numbers are attributable to the quality of the player, each and every year.
Clubs will have their list in an order and will in 'Red' drop in the players they may bid on as things go along.
If the gettable player you want at #7 is here for you and he drops to #13 because of bids.....you'd be silly to now somehow value him less. Crazy
- Aug 6, 2013
- 3,278
- 2,705
- AFL Club
- Essendon
That they have to make those adjustments and the number of gettable top talents is already eaten into is the issue. If it were a year with no or fewer academy players at the top, they could get the 7th best player in the draft (theoretically, obviously doesn't work out so simply in practice) with pick 7 rather getting the 13th best player. If the pick gets pushed back by matched bids, you've traded the player for the 13th pick and not the 7th pick. It means that they might have to pick a player further down their list of preferred players (even though they knew some weren't attainable) than their pick entitles them to on paper at the time of the trade.That makes no difference at all.
As if the same numbers are attributable to the quality of the player, each and every year.
Clubs will have their list in an order and will in 'Red' drop in the players they may bid on as things go along.
If the gettable player you want at #7 is here for you and he drops to #13 because of bids.....you'd be silly to now somehow value him less. Crazy
mpal6
Norm Smith Medallist
Mate, you're not getting it and here's another thing - When you have a 25% discount on a player and when he's somewhat tied into you, you're more likely to bid on them or manufacture a way to make things work out to advantage.
Look at recent history and you'll see this.
- Aug 6, 2013
- 3,278
- 2,705
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Yeah, I'm not getting how the nominal number pre-draft is more meaningful and indicative of the value you're getting than where you actually get to pick in the draft.
Eiffel 65
Cancelled
- Sep 18, 2018
- 3,854
- 10,144
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- Carlton
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- Gryffindor
You could say that about any position on the ground.
Reality is he's not worth pick 7.
I don't get how people make this argument every single year when repeatedly time after time it just doesn't happen.
2/22 last year and they said the same thing they are this year
3/23 - 2018
0 - 2017
4/20 - 2016
You are never getting the 20th best player with pick 13, hasn't nor will ever happen.
- Aug 6, 2013
- 3,278
- 2,705
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Not saying it will, just disagree with the calls that it would be irrelevant to a pick's value if hypothetically the first round were stacked with academy players and the pick got pushed back.
Yes, you could, what is your point?
Draft picks are an overrated, unknown commodity. This has been proven time and time again. The fact that so many potential draftees haven’t even played a game this year and the various concessions that are impacting this draft (including the first round) only exacerbates the lottery-sequel nature of this draft.
Clubs that value draft picks over proven talent in their prime are on a long road to nowhere...
It is laughable we are discussing 1st round picks to begin with, you got him for pick 35 and he is the same player only older.
No one with an IQ over 12 has his value in the 1st round, if you are giving them up for a hbf closer to the end then the start you will find your club without draft picks devoid of talent and rebuilding inside 5 years.
Oh is he?
I thought he’d actually had 3 very good years - but apparently not
Thanks for clarifying.
Carlton have been to the draft enough. Carltons list atm is at the stage where they can afford to trade high picks for players to plug holes imo.
Are you suggesting he wasn't any good at GC? lol rose tinted outlook ill give you thatOh is he?
I thought he’d actually had 3 very good years - but apparently not
Thanks for clarifying.
- Sep 26, 2004
- 47,860
- 64,840
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- Carlton
- Moderator
- #971
He's a significantly better footballer now than when he left the Suns.
That being said, he's not worth pick 7, and certainly not when he's not contracted beyond this season.
- May 6, 2007
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- Tottenham Hotspurs, Melbourne Vixen
Hes worth what your club is willing to pay
- Sep 26, 2004
- 47,860
- 64,840
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Moderator
- #974
Where's he going if he decides to leave?
Eiffel 65
Cancelled
- Sep 18, 2018
- 3,854
- 10,144
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- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Gryffindor
Point is that argument doesn't justify a trade value of pick 7 for Saad.
There's clearly risks in going to the draft, but if you get it right, you get yourselves a 12-15 year player. When you trade for a mature age player, you get 3-4 years out of them before you're talking about retirement. That's the risk reward trade-off and why recruiters value draft picks so highly. They prefer to back themselves in to acquire long term players as opposed to stopgap solutions.
History says the longer he takes to make his decision, the more likely he is to go. However, in saying that, Saad seems like a very loyal person. Deep down I think he knows he wants to stay at Essendon and is merely using Carlton as leverage in contract negotiations.
Time will tell.
