List Mgmt. Adelaide Crows 2021 List Management thread

[Bearded Clam]

How many picks are you planning to use?

What's this situation about the "agreed" pick swap between Pies/Adelaide? Any idea? Could it be our future 1st for pick 4 or something along those lines?

Came from a poster who's had close to a 100% accuracy with news this offseason.

Why would the pies want to do a pick swap for our pick 4?…

that would be silly unless they did it on the night after daicos is either bid on at 1, 2 or 3.. or if by some miracle daicos hasnt been bid on, the pies get pick 4 and then get to match a bid on daicos when he gets bid on after pick 4..

And if daicos is bid on at 1, 2 or 3 then the pies wont have any draft capital left to trade for pick 4 with adelaide anyway.. their 2022 1st wont be anywhere near enough.. crows would want a first this year and next year as a minimum..

seems strange but cheers for bringing the rumour in…we’re always happy to hear these types of rumours.. our club seems to have shut up shop when it comes to leaking out rumours these days.. giving us poor BF adelaide board crew nothing to talk about!..

 

[Bearded Clam]

I'd say it's fairly unlikely we'd be taking any DFAs at this stage. There's certainly nothing in the delisting of ROC & Davis to suggest it.

We still have only 4x senior list vacancies, at least one (possibly two) of which is (are) likely to be filled via rookie upgrade.

We normally like to have a spare spot on the list too…

i think with covid effecting the draft class of both 2020 and 2021 now I’d say most clubs will want a spare spot left available incase some great players, that missed out being drafted, emerge and are available at the mid season draft.

 

[PoholkMe10]

Well you guys have been shopping around pick 4 actively. For pick 1 from North, for pick 2 from GWS, and for pick 7/15 from Richmond.

Clearly you guys are not content with just taking pick 4 to the draft, probably because you guys see greater value by trading it, since pick 4 effectively becomes pick 6 after Daicos/Darcy bids.

Or you guys just don't rate this draft at all. Or you think there's a clear top 4 in the draft (Hornes, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan), and all 4 will be gone by your pick.

Far far more likely the pick swap involves our pick 33, not 4.

 

[Vader]

But then, why would we trade out of the draft at that stage? It makes no sense.

Think of it as a 3-way trade, involving Adelaide, Richmond & Collingwood:

Adelaide
OUT: pick 4
IN: 7 & Collingwood's future 1st

Richmond
OUT: picks 7 & 15
IN: pick 4

Collingwood
OUT: Future 1st
IN: Pick 15

Adelaide get 2x 1st round picks, stay in the top-10 in 2021, and potentially add an extra top-5 pick in 2022.
Richmond get the pick they need to land Hobbs (I doubt we do this deal if Callaghan is still on the board).
Collingwood get Daicos + another 1st round pick, at the cost of their Future 1st.

It's not the dumbest live trading idea I've seen posted in this thread. Actually, it's pretty damn good for all clubs.

This has to be a live trade, when Adelaide is on the board at #4.

• It has to be after the Daicos bid
• It only happens if Callaghan is off the board - I think Adelaide would grab him if he's still available.

 

[Prochard123]

Think of it as a 3-way trade, involving Adelaide, Richmond & Collingwood:

Adelaide
OUT: pick 4
IN: 7 & Collingwood's future 1st

Richmond
OUT: picks 7 & 15
IN: pick 4

Collingwood
OUT: Future 1st
IN: Pick 15

Adelaide get 2x 1st round picks, stay in the top-10 in 2021, and potentially add an extra top-5 pick in 2022.
Richmond get the pick they need to land Hobbs (I doubt we do this deal if Callaghan is still on the board).
Collingwood get Daicos + another 1st round pick, at the cost of their Future 1st.

It's not the dumbest live trading idea I've seen posted in this thread. Actually, it's pretty damn good for all clubs.

Do you seriously think we'd take that given we came 2nd last this year, and our future 1st is probably a top 3 pick?

 

[Crow till I die]

Do you seriously think we'd take that given we came 2nd last this year, and our future 1st is probably a top 3 pick?

maybe you get back the crows 2022 2nd as part of that proposal to balance it up a bit - ie for your future 1st, you get a 1st this year and a good 2nd next year

Edit - well Collingwood also has form, their 2021 1st only cost 2020 picks 24, 30 and a 2021 4th rounder

 

[Vader]

Do you seriously think we'd take that given we came 2nd last this year, and our future 1st is probably a top 3 pick?

Depends on how badly you want to get back into the 2021 draft, and how optimistic your club is about bouncing back off the bottom in 2022.

If you don't do the deal, then your 2021 draft is going to be Daicos and a bunch of kids taken very late in the draft. If you do the deal, then you get a 2nd decent pick - and you back yourselves to get out of the bottom group next year.

 

[Prochard123]

maybe you get back the crows 2022 2nd as part of that proposal to balance it up a bit - ie for your future 1st, you get a 1st this year and a good 2nd next year

Would you trade pick 2 (using our ladder position this year) for pick 15 + pick 19 (the highest possible 2nd round pick)?

 

[Prochard123]

Depends on how badly you want to get back into the 2021 draft, and how optimistic your club is about bouncing back off the bottom in 2022.

If you don't do the deal, then your 2021 draft is going to be Daicos and a bunch of kids taken very late in the draft. If you do the deal, then you get a 2nd decent pick - and you back yourselves to get out of the bottom group next year.

All of these hypotheticals are meaningless and really don't an argument.

If an AFL list manager trades a future 1st that's expected to be a top 3 pick directly for pick 15, he would get fired.

Ned Guy did that, and he did get fired.

 

[Crow till I die]

Would you trade pick 2 (using our ladder position this year) for pick 15 + pick 19 (the highest possible 2nd round pick)?

well you did trade pick 2 (this year) for picks 24, 30 and a future 4th only last year - so the deal for pick 15 and a low 20's pick is a marked increase on that especially as your side would be hoping for a bit of a bounce away from the bottom 2

 

[Bearded Clam]

Do you seriously think we'd take that given we came 2nd last this year, and our future 1st is probably a top 3 pick?

Yeah it seems like a bit of a pineapple in the arse for the pies there.. but maybe they are desperate to gwt back into this years first round to grab someone?..

Who knows… stranger things have happened.

 

[Vader]

All of these hypotheticals are meaningless and really don't an argument.

If an AFL list manager trades a future 1st that's expected to be a top 3 pick directly for pick 15, he would get fired.

There's always a "I want it now" factor, which seems to rate future picks about 5 positions lower than picks in the current draft. For example, you'd typically see pick 20 in this years draft traded for a Future 1st from a team with Prelim Final expectations the following year.

You also back yourself not to finish in the bottom-3 again next year. Say you finish 7th, then you're trading pick 7 in the future for pick 15 that you can use now. That's well within the realms of possibility.

 

[Prochard123]

well you did trade pick 2 (this year) for picks 24, 30 and a future 4th only last year - so the deal for pick 15 and a low 20's pick is a marked increase on that especially as your side would be hoping for a bit of a bounce away from the bottom 2

We traded our future 1st in a year where we played finals. That's a completely different situation to this year where we came 2nd last. The valuation of a future 1st is not even comparable.

If you can't even recognize that then I can't help you.

 

[Crow till I die]

We traded our future 1st in a year where we played finals. That's a completely different situation to this year where we came 2nd last. The valuation of a future 1st is not even comparable.

If you can't even recognize that then I can't help you.

Like others have said, stranger things have happened and I highly doubt your club will be banking on a bottom 2 finish again and it is how desperate they want to get back into the draft. Seems to be a sellers market for the high end picks

 

[WeedsMullet84]

3x ND selections + Butts upgrade would fill our senior list (noting that we've already added Dawson).

We'd have 2x rookie list vacancies (one from delisting Davis, one from upgrading Butts).

Which means we could take one of our NGA's as a rookie if they're not picked in the Draft?

 

[WeedsMullet84]

We traded our future 1st in a year where we played finals. That's a completely different situation to this year where we came 2nd last. The valuation of a future 1st is not even comparable.

If you can't even recognize that then I can't help you.

Sure, but it's even more unlikely the trade involves our Pick 4 (6 after bids on Daicos) for your next years 1st.

A club trading a Pick into next year is losing a year of development compared to the club trading in, and the risk is squarely with the club trading out. This is why these types of trades are never equitable. A simple Google search will give you some trades that have gone down clearly showing a trade with any team this year with a top 10 pick is not going to be in your favour.

 

[Vader]

Which means we could take one of our NGA's as a rookie if they're not picked in the Draft?

Yes... but I'm not sure that we'd do so. We didn't nominate them, which means we didn't want to be forced into taking them in the RD. Presumably that means the club thinks there are likely to be better options in the RD.

 

[Vader]

Sure, but it's even more unlikely the trade involves our Pick 4 (6 after bids on Daicos) for your next years 1st.

A club trading a Pick into next year is losing a year of development compared to the club trading in, and the risk is squarely with the club trading out. This is why these types of trades are never equitable. A simple Google search will give you some trades that have gone down clearly showing a trade with any team this year with a top 10 pick is not going to be in your favour.

The "bird in the hand" factor definitely weighs heavily, in any/every trade involving future picks.

 

[Crow till I die]

The "bird in the hand" factor definitely weighs heavily, in any/every trade involving future picks.

Absolutely and this year pick 4 is pick 4 of the kids on the open board not tied as f/s picks. The pies 2022 1st might be a teens pick if the have a big rebound..now chances are not but who knows so why give up a guaranteed high pick this year on a speculation a pick will be low next year.

 

[Vader]

Absolutely and this year pick 4 is pick 4 of the kids on the open board not tied as f/s picks. The pies 2022 1st might be a teens pick if the have a big rebound..now chances are not but who knows so why give up a guaranteed high pick this year on a speculation a pick will be low next year.

Except that's not what we're discussing - at least, it's not the scenario I outlined previously.

My scenario sees Collingwood getting Richmond's pick 15 (which will be 17 after the Daicos/Darcy bids).

 

[Crow till I die]

Except that's not what we're discussing - at least, it's not the scenario I outlined previously.

My scenario sees Collingwood getting Richmond's pick 15 (which will be 17 after the Daicos/Darcy bids).

I know- but if you read his comments, he thinks it would be for pick 4, not pick 15

 

[Vader]

I know- but if you read his comments, he thinks it would be for pick 4, not pick 15

He's having a lend of himself, if he thinks that's the deal.

 

[Crow till I die]

He's having a lend of himself, if he thinks that's the deal.

no arguments from me there

 

[1970crow]

Why would the Pies get pick 4 and then throw it away on Daicos, when they already have the points for that?

the swap is done after daicos bid is matched. When I first heard of Davis/ROC delisting I thought it likely that we’re confident of splitting 4. This would be the opposite of that. And not sure why we’d do that swap anyway.

 

[Crow till I die]

Another piece off the board