Preview Adelaide vs Essendon, Adelaide Oval, Saturday 15/04/17 @ 7:40 PM AEST

[eth-dog]

Observations

Adelaide: Had a showdown for the ages against arch rivals Port Adelaide, winning the game by 17 points after dominating most of the time after the first quarter. Vice captain Rory Sloane was the star through the midfield, collecting 31 disposals, with 8 clearances to go along with it while captain Taylor Walker also proved influential, kicking 4 goals.

Essendon:

Head to Head (last 5)

Adelaide 3-2 Essendon

Form Guide

Adelaide: 3W, 0L
Essendon: 2W, 0L

Sportsbet odds

Adelaide: $1.27
Essendon: $3.78
Line: 23.5 ($1.92)

Possible sides

Adelaide vs Essendon

B: Brown - Hartley - Ambrose
F: Jenkins - Walker - Betts
HB: Gleeson - Hurley - Goddard
HF: Lynch - Otten - Cameron
C: Zaharakis - Watson - Parish
C: Atkins - Sloane - Smith
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Stanton
HB: Lever - Talia - Brown
F: Fantasia - Hooker - Bellchambers
B: Laird - Hartigan - Hampton
R: Leuenberger - Z Merrett - Heppell
R: Jacobs - Douglas - M Crouch
I: McGrath - Kelly - Colyer - Francis
I: Knight - Kelly - Mackay - Milera

Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

Adelaide's defence has probably been it's weakest link so far this season, conceding a goal around 25% of the time it goes in there. Essendon have been extremely efficient going inside 50, scoring a goal 31% of the time it enters there so far this season. The main battle will be between Joe Daniher and Daniel Talia, Daniher being one of the most promising and close to elite young forwards in the game whilst Talia is renowned as the best stopper in the AFL currently. Daniher took the chocolates last time and will be looking to do the same; but Talia rarely lets a player beat him twice in a row. Another battle of interest will be between Orazio Fantasia and Luke Brown; with Brown's big improvement he will be looking to shut Essendon's speedy forward down, a player that kicks goals from nearly every spot inside 50.

Midfield/rucks battle

The area of which will be the main concern for Essendon. Adelaide so far this season have topped the differential in contested possessions and are top 8 for clearance differential, whereas Essendon are mid table for both those stats. Adelaide's main weapon will be their pace on the outside with David Mackay, Rory Atkins, Brodie Smith and Charlie Cameron all having pace to burn with the inside prowess of the likes of Rory Sloane, Matt Crouch, Richard Douglas and Riley Knight feeding the ball out to them. Essendon will be hoping to get on top inside with Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Heath Hocking, as their outside run won't be quite as good, rather with good disposal than actual speed in David Zaharakis, Kyle Langford and Brendan Goddard being the main outside midfielders for the Dons. Ruck wise, Sam Jacobs is one of the top 5 rucks in the game and will be looking to win the battle here for Adelaide against a solid combination of Matthew Leuenberger and Tom Bellchambers.

Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Adelaide have one of the best, if not the best, forward lines in the competition, averaging a goal a whopping 30% of the time it enters 50. Essendon's defence has been good the first three weeks, conceding a goal 21% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Adelaide is lead by Taylor Walker in here, the captain being one of the premier centre half-forwards in the game and will renew acquaintances with Michael Hurley, a former All Australian key defender. The pair have battled before for tight results, and this promises to be another close battle between the pair. Eddie Betts is the premier small forward of the competition and has an excellent record against Mark Baguley and Essendon, a pairing that promises to be a fruitful one for Adelaide.

X-Factor Player

Curtley Hampton has been a big improver for the crows, his ability to run and create off half back a big factor in why they've gone 3-0. He'll need to be at his best with Essendon's small forwards pressure so far this season.

Key stat

Adelaide: Clearances. They're very good when they win the clearance count and it's important for them to do so to give their elite forwards the ability to generate goals.

Essendon: Opposition conversion rate. Adelaide have the premier forward line in the game, if Esendon can strangle them inside 50 it'll be very important.

Tip

Adelaide are a team competing for the flag it seems this season and Essendon are a side that will be fighting for a spot in the second half of the finals. Adelaide by 18

 

[Beerfish]

We will win.

 

[Its Manbearpig]

We will win.

Really?! Wish I shared that confidence.

 

[Bombermania]

First lets check the BOM, minimal chance of rain, good now for the match itself.

 

[quotemokc]

Out: Brown, Langford, Hocking

In: Hartley, Green, Dea

 

[mike14]

Not sure our backline can contaun their forward line well enough. We might be able to eek out a 2-3 goal win if we play smart and bring our kicking skills, but if they get a run on it could get very ugly

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Just take the 4 points Crows.

 

[ghostdog]

I'd like to see Walla play up the ground and run towards the forward fifty. I'd like to see Begley selected as another avenue for Pyke to think about and allow Walla to rotate through the forward line as well. That would give us another player with pace to run the transition.

 

[JayJ20]

I think we'll lose comfortably IMO.

After a game like that, it'll be hard for them to back it up.

I don't know what to make of this. We come up against probably the most potent forwardline in the competition. Maybe I'll feel more confident that we will put in a good performance throughout the week, but it isn't looking likely at this stage for me.

I think we'll be discussing margins instead of wins unfortunately.

Out: Brown, Langford, Hocking
In: Stewart, Hartley, Green/Francis

Hartley should not have been dropped in the first place. Time in the 2s will be needed for Langford and Hocking was ineffective today.

Very tempted to drop Zaharakis, but I'll hold off

 

[tha Freak]

They had a good hit out against Port. We a had a shit game in the wet against the blues. Hardly great a preparation for us. Can't see us getting up for this.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

If we play like we did against the Hawks we have a good chance of winning.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I think we'll lose comfortably IMO.

After a game like that, it'll be hard for them to back it up.

I don't know what to make of this. We come up against probably the most potent forwardline in the competition. Maybe I'll feel more confident that we will put in a good performance throughout the week, but it isn't looking likely at this stage for me.

I think we'll be discussing margins instead of wins unfortunately.

Out: Brown, Langford, Hocking
In: Stewart, Hartley, Green/Francis

Hartley should not have been dropped in the first place. Time in the 2s will be needed for Langford and Hocking was ineffective today.

Very tempted to drop Zaharakis, but I'll hold off

Dropping Hartley was dumb he would have been fisting away every Carlton forward entry.

 

[Harlequin]

Just take the 4 points Crows.

If we play like we did against the Hawks we have a good chance of winning.

You wot m8?

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

You wot m8?

I'm having a bet each way.

 

[vaughany]

We have to be realistic and admit Adelaide will beat us no matter what team we field. So would give fringe players like Bird and Jerrett a chance for one week.
Would hold back on Francis for the time being. Kelly one of our best against the blue will be rested this week.
Would play McKernan over Stewart this week so he can help Luey combat Jacobs in the ruck.
Zaka and Langford omitted for wake up call reasons, hopefully returned fired up and hungry on Anzac Day.

Out:
Brown
Langford
Hocking
Zaharakis
Kelly (rested)

In:
McKernan
Dea
Hartley
Jerrett
Bird


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[yaco55]

Best time to play Adelaide teams is the week after the Showdown - Adelaide operate a good defensive grid so it will be a good opportunity to test our composure and outside running ability - Get these two parts write and it's a winnable game.

 

[ghostdog]

Best time to play Adelaide teams is the week after the Showdown - Adelaide operate a good defensive grid so it will be a good opportunity to test our composure and outside running ability - Get these two parts write and it's a winnable game.

Their best small back will go to Raz, so we should take the opportunity to show Begley some belief and bring him in. Play Walla further up the ground and let him run towards the forward fifty, scaring the crap out of them.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Betts to kick 8 and then be rested at half time.
Cameron to kick 4.
Millera to have a break out game and kick 3 with 20+ touches.

Will be interesting to see how the coaches set up for this one. Our only hope is for Heppel, Watson,Zerrett and Parish to smash their mids.

Outs: Zaharakis, Maybe Stanton, maybe Langford, maybe Hocking, Kelly and all the old guys.
Ins: Jerrett, Maybe Dea, maybe McKenna, maybe slim pickings. Unfortunately no kids are showing enough to get a game.

 

[vaughany]

Betts to kick 8 and then be rested at half time.
Cameron to kick 4.
Millera to have a break out game and kick 3 with 20+ touches.

Will be interesting to see how the coaches set up for this one. Our only hope is for Heppel, Watson,Zerrett and Parish to smash their mids.

Outs: Zaharakis, Maybe Stanton, maybe Langford, maybe Hocking, Kelly and all the old guys.
Ins: Jerrett, Maybe Dea, maybe McKenna, maybe slim pickings. Unfortunately no kids are showing enough to get a game.

Agree we need to bring Dea in. I'm assuming Bags will start on Betts but if he gets off the chain we could switch Dea onto him.

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[JayJ20]

Best time to play Adelaide teams is the week after the Showdown - Adelaide operate a good defensive grid so it will be a good opportunity to test our composure and outside running ability - Get these two parts write and it's a winnable game.

Only problem is that we just had our own slogdown

 

[Atavistic]

I'm having a bet each way.

Why not predict a draw as well?

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

We will get done here. But I hope we show a more respectful performance than today.

 

[eth-dog]

Three changes for me.

Out: Langford (been a defender but was terrible), Baguley (was WOG for us... Slightly ahead of Langford), Hocking (probably harsh but he struggled badly)
In: Hartley (Need him for their 4 tall forward line), Bellchambers (Been excellent in the VFL three weeks in a row), Francis (just get him in)

 

[Mr_McBoogerBalls]

Just take the 4 points Crows.

Okay, time to get over today's loss now, buddy.

 

[JayJ20]

Three changes for me.

Out: Langford (been a defender but was terrible), Baguley (was WOG for us... Slightly ahead of Langford), Hocking (probably harsh but he struggled badly)
In: Hartley (Need him for their 4 tall forward line), Bellchambers (Been excellent in the VFL three weeks in a row), Francis (just get him in)

How tall do you want us to go? Going in too tall against Adelaide isn't a good idea