Autopsy AFL 2023 Grand Final - Pies vs Lions Sat Sept 30th 2:30pm EST (MCG)

[Algorithmic Hot Takes]

Biggest ever comeback in a grand final at 3/4 is 24 points in 1984. They’d want to be a bit closer I’d reckon.

Maybe, but it's all mental. They'll both be knackered at that stage with the heat, in this scenario.
The crowd starts "Coooollingwoood, Coooollingwoood", get a quick goal or two, and tired Lions could try and save it, which won't end well if 20 points up with 15 minutes to go...

 

[dean33]

Hope not. They are all s**t, Especially Joe Danihers.

Do they seriously have their own songs? I know Charlie Cameron had one but does everyone else?
It’s really putrid and was thought up by some idiot with no idea about the game.

 

[BRAB]

Do they seriously have their own songs? I know Charlie Cameron had one but does everyone else?
It’s really putrid and was thought up by some idiot with no idea about the game.

It’s pretty fun to be honest.

 

[Xtreme]

Anyone know anything about how the lions go at the MCG?

Doesn't benefit them in the same way that Pendles' basketball background benefits Collingwood!!

 

[Demonic Ascent]

4-19-2

 

[FFB1]

Doesn't benefit them in the same way that Pendles' basketball background benefits Collingwood!!

Does he have a basketball background?

 

[ice444]

carn the lions

 

[CarterS]

Do they seriously have their own songs? I know Charlie Cameron had one but does everyone else?
It’s really putrid and was thought up by some idiot with no idea about the game.

You'll be glad to know it was Zorko's idea apparantly.

 

[Didak Wine]

I think one team will win

 

[beerbandit]

Carn the Pies. Do it for the Vics!

 

[Xtreme]

Does he have a basketball background?

Yes
Its reaponsible for his reaction time
How he leaps for the ball etc etc etc

 

[dean33]

You'll be glad to know it was Zorko's idea apparantly.

That doesn’t surprise me actually

 

[Didak Wine]

Do they seriously have their own songs? I know Charlie Cameron had one but does everyone else?
It’s really putrid and was thought up by some idiot with no idea about the game.

Putrid? Is your first name Ebenezer

 

[CarterS]

That doesn’t surprise me actually

Wouldn't work in Melb but it does up here, bit of a weird market in some ways, at the Broncos a horse does a lap of the field each time they score a try.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

You'll be glad to know it was Zorko's idea apparantly.

Doesn't surprise me

 

[Lsta062]

If this game was played on pure skills on all lines, then Brisbane would win. However, that’s not the case.

One thing Collingwood have over Brisbane is guts and effort. Their players basically give it their all, which is exactly what wins Premierships. Brisbane players do try, but at the level of Collingwood? Don’t think so.

I’m going with Collingwood for the Premiership. Brisbane can win if they at least match Collingwood’s work rate (due to their skills), but not sure that’ll happen.

 

[md20]

If this game was played on pure skills on all lines, then Brisbane would win. However, that’s not the case.

One thing Collingwood have over Brisbane is guts and effort. Their players basically give it their all, which is exactly what wins Premierships. Brisbane players do try, but at the level of Collingwood? Don’t think so.

I’m going with Collingwood for the Premiership. Brisbane can win if they at least match Collingwood’s work rate (due to their skills), but not sure that’ll happen.

I dont know. I feel like you dont come back from having 5 goals piled on you to 0 in the first quarter of a prelim and win without guts and effort in my opinion.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

Lions by 12

 

[Fitzey]

This is why all finals should be played at the G. It hurts me to say it but Pies by 73.

 

[Lsta062]

I dont know. I feel like you dont come back from having 5 goals piled on you to 0 in the first quarter of prelim and win without guts and effort in my opinion.

Brisbane had enough guts and effort to make the Grand Final (which is obviously commendable), but that’s not necessarily going to translate to a Grand Final win.

I say this as someone who wants Brisbane to win - Collingwood at the MCG is a completely different prospect to Carlton at the Gabba. In fact, Brisbane probably would have defeated anyone other than Collingwood (and maybe GWS) yesterday.

The thing with Collingwood is that they run all day. They simply don’t stop coming at you from start to finish. Even in their lapses, they’re still running, which means they’re super fit.

If Brisbane don’t do the same, then their talent will not save them. What better day to put in your all than the Grand Final though.

 

[smasha]

Pies with some Richmond DNA should win.

 

[peetoo]

Unthinkable to lose 3 gfs to the same opponent

(Geelong or west coast, how about it?)

Should add afl or recent era. Collingwood seem to have lost at least 5 to both carlton and Melbourne and they have beaten each once Al least

 

[Reg Grundy35]

My early take is:

• Collingwood havn't been in good form. They lost 3 of their last 5 home and away games.
• Collingwood havn't scored more than 60 in a final (scored 60 and 58 in their two matches)
• The "expected score" stat from Champion Data has Collingwood losing to Melbourne by 18 and GWS by 4 based on the stats from those matches
• Brisbane has beaten Collingwood twice already and scored 116 and 124 versus a team that hasn't scored more than 60 in the finals.
• Collingwood is 0-3 in Grand Finals versus Non-Vic teams, showing that any advantage the Vic side has is massively diluted on Grand Final day due to the more even crowd support.

Surely Brisbane, based on any sort of historical data and trends win this match. There is no recent evidence based on Collingwood's recent form and scoring power (or lack of it) that they win this match. I mean, when was the last time a team won the premiership after not scoring more than 60 in their first two finals? Has it ever happened? Good on them if they prove this wrong, but it's hard to make a case for Collingwood on form, or data.

i remember you. you were that bloke who kept banging on about the 2000 Essendon team being the greatest in history. You like to use stats but only those you like to use from memory. Bet there'd be some juicy data about the Dons since then eh?

 

[Demonic Ascent]

If this game was played on pure skills on all lines, then Brisbane would win. However, that’s not the case.

One thing Collingwood have over Brisbane is guts and effort. Their players basically give it their all, which is exactly what wins Premierships. Brisbane players do try, but at the level of Collingwood? Don’t think so.

I’m going with Collingwood for the Premiership. Brisbane can win if they at least match Collingwood’s work rate (due to their skills), but not sure that’ll happen.

I thought Brisbane would win the flag easily before the Prelims but the level of pressure in the Pies/GWS game, I don't know if Brisbane can handle that. Talent alone, Lions easily. But pressure/intensity Pies have them covered.

I'm getting Adelaide 2017 vibes from the Lions.

 

[md20]

Brisbane had enough guts and effort to make the Grand Final (which is obviously commendable), but that’s not necessarily going to translate to a Grand Final win.

I say this as someone who wants Brisbane to win - Collingwood at the MCG is a completely different prospect to Carlton at the Gabba. In fact, Brisbane probably would have defeated anyone other than Collingwood (and maybe GWS) yesterday.

The thing with Collingwood is that they run all day. They simply don’t stop coming at you from start to finish. Even in their lapses, they’re still running, which means they’re super fit.

If Brisbane don’t do the same, then their talent will not save them. What better day to put in your all than the Grand Final though.

I agree with you about Collingwood. I disagree about your view on our level of 'guts and effort' and think they are being under-rated. Of course there have been games in previous seasons, and this one, where Ive questioned our effort (whether thats been right or if its just come from emotion of being a frustrated supporter when their team loses), but Ive seen a huge difference in this finals series from us. But hey, I am a Lions supporter.
As you say, what better day to prove it then Grand Final day

 

[FFB1]

Yes
Its reaponsible for his reaction time
How he leaps for the ball etc etc etc

I was being facetious