Preview AFL Round 11 - Carlton v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7:50PM Friday 8 June

[marshhhhh]

Can't wait to see Gillies out.
I worry every single time he goes near it.
Great ins.
Wojcinski won't start sub, most likely one of the kids.
If Kelly wasn't out it might be different.

 

[fpm84]

Geez hope you’re on the money SJ. Not so sure myself. With Kreuzer, Henderson, Duigan and Waite back and us most likely without Kelly, Christensen and maybe Hawkins and Selwood. Throw in a steamed-up Blues after the Port surrender. Well!!!!!!! Then again, I’m a footy pessimist.

Ratten said the other day that Waite is no certainty and in any case they may play him in the VFL. He's killed us over the past few years so I'd love to see him miss.

I think Henderson and Dugan are 50-50 to face us. Kreuzer was a late out with a hamstring problem last night - no idea on his status.

RE: Selwood, it was reported this morning as a corked thigh. I can understand him staying in the game when it was close but surely if there was any danger he'd miss next week he would have been subbed out of the game when we were in control.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I'll be shocked of Wojcinski doesn't play. He will likely be the sub. Hope Hawkins is OK but realistically he'll be back for the Swans. Shame about Bundy.

IN: Corey, Enright, Motlop, Wojcinski
OUT: Kelly (susp), Schroeder, Gillies, McCarthy

I'm a bit worried about Smedts under pressure in a big game, but he played well yesterday. Wouldn't mind seeing Smedts out and Gillies keep his place, allowing Harry to swing forward and take advantage of Carlton's undermanned backline.

Goes without saying this is a huge game and despite our injuries, we're getting them at the right time.

Add Simpkin for Smedts and that's the side.

I like Smedts but he's not strong enough in the contest to be ready for a game like this and particularly with Kelly out we need all the contested ball bodies we can get, so would have thought Simpkin is a fairly obvious in in that department.

I don't think Gillies was as bad yesterday as some felt but I don't think we need the extra tall against the Carlton defence and I don't see a matchup for him. Probably Josh to Betts and Enright to Garlett you would think, with Lonergan on either Waite (if he plays) or the resting ruckman. Something like that anyway.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Can't wait to see Gillies out.
I worry every single time he goes near it.
Great ins.
Wojcinski won't start sub, most likely one of the kids.
If Kelly wasn't out it might be different.

Wojo will be sub, just a question of whether he's the player subbed on or the player subbed off. After not having played all year won't have the match fitness for 4 quarters. But even 2 1/2 quarters of Wojo will really help us counter Carlton's pace.

 

[CatTricks]

Worst case scenario

In: Wojcinski, Enright, Corey, Motlop
Out: Kelly (susp.), Shroder (omit.), McCarthy (omit.), Selwood (inj.)

Best case scenario

In: Wojcinski, Enright, Corey, Motlop, Christensen, Hawkins
Out: Gillies, Schoder, McCarthy, Smedts, Stringer, Stokes

 

[Duskfire]

Due to Carltons forward line, I wonder if Scott might not flirt with the idea of having Taylor up forward again, especially with no Hawkins. Its obvious that for whatever reason Pods isnt playing well, whether its general injuries or just lack of form or both.

 

[AM]

Ratten said the other day that Waite is no certainty and in any case they may play him in the VFL. He's killed us over the past few years so I'd love to see him miss.

I think Henderson and Dugan are 50-50 to face us. Kreuzer was a late out with a hamstring problem last night - no idea on his status.

RE: Selwood, it was reported this morning as a corked thigh. I can understand him staying in the game when it was close but surely if there was any danger he'd miss next week he would have been subbed out of the game when we were in control.

They won't play Waite in the ressies if he's ready to go. He's the only genuine go-to forward with size they have.

We are speculating about their possible 'ins' of course. Just going on Ratten's post game presser.

The positive for me is that I'd far rather play them at Etihad than the 'G'.

 

[Gaz_Brownlow]

Such a crucial, crucial game.....season defining in every sense.

Reality suggests that Kelly is gone and realistically can we expect to see Hawkins get up? Am not sure....but god i hope so.

IN: Corey, Enright, Motlop, Hawkins (hopefully), Wojack,
OUT: Gillies, Kelly, Schroder, McCarthy, Smedts

If Hawkins fails to come up, I think we may look at Walker.....Pods has been down and we need that two forward structure. I'm a fan and believe he could serve us well with physicality and agression. Elevated for Menzel if LTI is activated. Other alternative if Hawkins fails to get up is Brown whom I think just needs to be shown a bit of faith.

The Blues are down and we are still struggling for anywhere near our best form. This is it though, we will know at the end of Friday night whether or not we are going to be a serious threat or if we are really too committed to a transition. Going to be a great test for the likes of Guthrie, Duncan, Motlop, Stringer, Taylor Hunt and Trent West, because the game is going to be increasingly driven from their ownership of the game....they may well fail, but it is a great test (would love to add Bundy to this list, but you would have to assume very unlikely).

As for Carlton, there weakness has come from opposition getting larger numbers to the contest (an area where we admittedly have also struggled). The simple answer is go harder and we will win! Enright to Betts is a must, and Lonners to handle Waite and Hampson/Kreuzer as they push forward.....we should be able to expose them in defence as they have dropped considerably in this department over last month.

No Kelly, No Bundy certainly hurt, but we do have OK depth at moment....expect more of SJ in the midfield.

Cats by 20

 

[Vdubs]

They won't play Waite in the ressies if he's ready to go. He's the only genuine go-to forward with size they have.

We are speculating about their possible 'ins' of course. Just going on Ratten's post game presser.

The positive for me is that I'd far rather play them at Etihad than the 'G'.

Disagree about Etihad, despite our record against them there. This time around, possibly no Wojo, no TV, Menzel, no real zip. Blues are a different team at Etihad, seems they struggle in the elements. Actually seems they struggle everywhere at present. Absolute toss of the coin game. Can we imagine Blues losing 4 in a row??

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Scotland out for the Blues.. Helps us in the midfield!!

http://www.sportsnewsfirst.com.au/articles/2012/06/03/scotland-injury-adds-to-carlton-s-plight/

 

[CatTricks]

beat me to it alkanphel

 

[Pure_Ownage]

beat me to it alkanphel

Kills my DT but very good for our chances of winning on friday night

 

[CatTricks]

Kills my DT but very good for our chances of winning on friday night

Yeah I have him in SC

might flick him this week

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Kills my DT but very good for our chances of winning on friday night

Lucky for me I bought in Beau Waters instead!

With our ins we should really win this Wojo and motlop means we get some pace back, If Hawkins is in, I don't they can cover him and Pods???

GO CATS!!!

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yeah I have him in SC

might flick him this week

I just brought him in this week!

byeroundscarnage.jpg

 

[Selective Retention]

Carlton and Essendon are the two worst match ups for us IMO, plus the good interstate sides away.

Very lucky to get Carlton when we have.

If we can win it goes a long way in suring up a top 8 spot. They have a horror month and we are their most winnable game. They could easily go 0-4 and drop out, while I think you can draw a line on the teams below Richmond as far as finals is concerned.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Makes it pretty clear Wojo has been training the house down and though he hasn't played all year he is in the frame to come straight in.

There's no reason to keep Wojo out, unless they think he's not in the best available 22. He's been fit for, what, a month now? Get him in for his 200th. Though it will be interesting to see a player run through his 200th game banner in the sub vest (which presumably he will be).

Geez hope you’re on the money SJ. Not so sure myself. With Kreuzer, Henderson, Duigan and Waite back and us most likely without Kelly, Christensen and maybe Hawkins and Selwood. Throw in a steamed-up Blues after the Port surrender. Well!!!!!!! Then again, I’m a footy pessimist.

While I think their recent history suggests that it will be a tough game for us, what I will say is Carlton in 2012 doesn't seem to be a team that is overly stung into action by a loss. Lose to Essendon and only their accuracy (and opposition inaccuracy) prevented another loss to Freo the week after. Surprising loss to St Kilda and follow that up with a smashing at the hands of Adelaide and only shaking Melbourne off in the last quarter in the following two weeks.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

God -why couldnt we have played Carlton this round -timing is everything

I watched parts of that game last night against the Power and i dont care what anyone says Carlton have hit Rock Bottom-you would sware that game was Fixed -Carlton simply did not Try

However they will wheel out some of their greats in the Media this Week -Walls -Kernaghan -they will say Carlton were Shamefull -blah -blah -which they were -and if they have any pride -youd reckon they would be desperate this week

Like i say -i just wish we had played them last night -because we would have won in a Canter

 

[CatTricks]

they are decimated by injury at the moment.
time to capitalise and go into the bye with a good ol belting

 

[Gaz_Brownlow]

They will come out firing on the back of heavy criticism so don't expect any breaks for the Cats. Scotland is a bonus, but lets put things in perspective considering we will lose Kelly and Bundy and haven't exactly been setting world on fire through the Mid anyway.

Midfield; Chapman, Corey, Stringer, Bartel, Selwood, SJ, Taylor Hunt, Duncan....

Midfield (Carlton); Judd, Mclean, Simpson, Ellard, Gibbs (maybe), Armfield and Joseph

Thats probably a considerably advantage to us at this stage....but boy adding Kelly or Bundy would help sure that advantage!

However, its most likely going to be the drive off the backline through Enright, Scarlett, Wojack and Mackie thats going to setup this game for us.

God dam i'm pumped for this one!!

 

[SpryCorpse]

Maybe Wojo can start. Then get subbed off when he reaches the end of his tether. That way he should get more playing time - which is what he needs.
Though if there is an injury he would be forced to play the whole game.
Hmmm...maybe not a good idea.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

God -why couldnt we have played Carlton this round -timing is everything

However they will wheel out some of their greats in the Media this Week -Walls -Kernaghan -they will say Carlton were Shamefull -blah -blah -which they were -and if they have any pride -youd reckon they would be desperate this week

Like i say -i just wish we had played them last night -because we would have won in a Canter

You'd reckon they'd have been desperate every week since their first loss of the season (in Round 4). They were looking invincible before that game and have looked no better than mediocre at any stage since. They haven't had a statement game despite indifferent (to say the least) form since April. Maybe they do turn it around against us, but logically you'd have to say it's unlikely.

Kreuzer's availability is critical. He's a tough matchup for our rucks, whereas we'd be hopeful of West and Stephenson being able to break even with Hampson and Warnock and Lonergan/Scarlett/Taylor being able to handle whichever ruck goes forward. Henderson and Waite would also be big inclusions for the Blues, especially Henderson, if Hawkins (as expected) returns.

With Murphy, Carrazzo and now Scotland out, Kelly's expected suspension becomes even more costly. He's been excellent recently and with Corey and Motlop expected back and Bartel and Chapman hitting form, our midfield could again have been a strength for this game (and still could be). But with Kelly and Christensen probably missing and Selwood also being a potential out, the battle in the middle evens out a bit.

It's impossible to know what's going on with our injury list, as years of frustration has taught us, but everyone seems supremely confident that Hawkins will be back and his inclusion will be critical for us to be able to exploit Carlton's undermanned (potentially missing Henderson, Duigan, Scotland and Laidler) backline. With injury clouds over Carlton's talls everywhere, if we can put Lonergan, Taylor, Scarlett, West, Stephenson, Hawkins and Podsiadly on the ground, the Blues are going to be stretched.

It seems that Garlett is on the chopping block for the Blues and I'd be delighted to see him dropped, as he's been one of the Blues forwards who has given us a lot of headaches in recent times. Walker and Waite have also bobbed up at times against us and got a few goals, though we've usually kept Betts pretty quiet.

The matchup for Poodle seems to be Judd, pretty obviously, though Chris Scott might have a curveball and send him to Simpson or Robinson. I like him on Judd or Robinson, though whichever player lines up on Simpson must be accountable, as he is very damaging.

Early ins and outs I'd suggest would be:

In: Hawkins, Motlop, Corey, Enright, Wojcinski
Out: Kelly (susp), Schroder, Gillies, McCarthy, Smedts

A huge amount of changes after an eleven goal win and I don't really like taking out so many kids, but I think they're all pretty logical moves. If all five of those 'ins' are available, the last out will come from Stokes/Stringer/Smedts. Could easily be one of the other two, but I just think Stringer and Stokes will give us more against Carlton, nothing against Smedts. Of course, there's a chance that we'll have a couple more out to take advantage of two weeks' rest for one missed game, but there aren't any obvious candidates.

B: J. Hunt, Lonergan, Scarlett
HB: Mackie, Taylor, Enright
C: Motlop, T. Hunt, Duncan
HF: Johnson, Hawkins, Chapman
F: Stokes, Podsiadly, West
R: Stephenson, Bartel, Selwood
I/C: Guthrie, Stringer, Corey
Sub: Wojcinski

 

[Gladbaqs]

Can't wait to see Gillies out.
I worry every single time he goes near it.

He was named in the best in both The Age and The Addy.

But I think you'll get your wish if Hawkins is ready to go.

 

[catters078]

Really dirty on the match commitee to bring bundy back through the 2's.

Was an unnessesary risk and one that costs us a gun player in a season defining game.

He was only out of 3 weeks, hes young and wasnt lacking match fitness.

If we was fit for 60% of game either dont play him at all, or manage his minutes in a manageable game vs GWS.

 

[you pick one]

He was named in the best in both The Age and The Addy.

But I think you'll get your wish if Hawkins is ready to go.

Did they say for which side.