AFL Round 14 Melbourne V Brisbane Lions Official Thread

[weevil]

AFL Premiership Round 14

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Sunday 29 June 2008
MCG 1:10:00pm (Local Time) Melbourne Forecast


TV (All Live)
Qld: Channel 7, Fox Sports 1.
Vic: Fox Sports 1.
SA: Fox Sports 1.
WA: Fox Sports 1.
TAS: Fox Sports 1.
NT: Fox Sports 1.
NSW/ACT: Fox Sports 1.

RADIO
Vic: SEN, ABC, K Rock, MMM. 3AW.
Qld: ABC, MMM, BIMA.
SA: Fiveaa, MMM, ABC.
WA: BIMA, ABC, 6PR.
NSW/ACT: None
Tas: ABC
NT: BIMA, ABC.


Ladder:

Last 5 Rounds:

Win-Loss Sequences:

Recent history:

​

The Brisbane Perspective:

Originally Posted by Quigley

Being out of the country for the last two rounds and being jet lagged to hell is probably not the best idea for writing a match preview but I will do my best.

This week sees us up against Melbourne and it will see two teams fighting for the highest spot they can get. Unfortunately whilst we are fighting for the highest spot on the ladder we can get Melbourne are fighting for the highest draft pick they can get. Nobody mention tanking though because we all know that that doesn’t exist. The Lions currently sit clear in 6th with 8 wins and 5 losses whilst the Demons sit in 16th with 1 win and 12 losses. The Lions fans are looking forward to September and finals football and the Demons to November and drafting their next star.

Notwithstanding that the Lions have everything to play for, these are the types of games that we absolutely must win. On paper Melbourne has a pretty good midfield and you have to think that they are going to get it together at some stage and I can’t see their players being happy losing week in week out even if some fans and admin personnel are. These types of a games can be dangerous and we absolutely must turn up ready to play.

Based on form you wouldn’t think this would be anything other than a Lions win but we have already lost to the 15th place team (Brisbane being one of West Coast’s two wins). We do not want the quinella and lose to Melbourne as well. Credit to the Lions though, this year they have done a good job of winning the games that they should win. Apart from the West Coast loss the only other losses have been to the contenders this year in Geelong, Hawthorn, Bulldogs and Sydney.

This is the second meeting for the Lions and the Ds this year with the Lions coming out on top in round 6 by 52 points at the Gabba. In that game Black tore the Demons apart with 36 possessions and Bradshaw picked up 6 goals. Bradshaw might not be playing this time and Black is looking a little proppy so things are looking up for the Demons. The game being in Melbourne should also see the Demons be more competitive.

Battle of Young Brigades

What is interesting with these two sides is that, since 2004, Melbourne and the Lions are the two sides with the most rising star nominations. Both sides have good recruiting staff and do well preparing their young players to make an impression at AFL level. Unfortunately for the Demons their young guys have stalled in their development and gone backwards if anything after initially bursting onto the scene. This year there is again plenty of promise being shown by the likes of Garland and Warnock but youngsters who were expected to come through and really make the competition sit up and pay attention like Newton and Dunn and to a lesser extent Jones have disappointed. The Lions meanwhile have a team who is carried by their star older players but whose youth is playing an important supporting role and are continuing to develop nicely. Merrett and Patfull are holding up the backline, Adcock, Rischitelli and Sherman are doing important jobs in the middle and Hooper, Corrie and Clark are important to the team structure up front.

Again this year the Demons seem to have done well with the drafting of Cale Morton (a no-brainer pick but still a good one) and the rookie listing of Austin Wonaeamirri (a great pick of a guy who really deserved the chance). Both have received rising star nominations and both look like exciting prospects. FWIW I would still pick Morton over Palmer because although Palmer will continue to get a lot of the pill I think Morton has the higher ceiling and despite what he has shown at times this year, has the hurt factor in his disposals that Palmer lacks. Its like comparing Luke Power to James Hird. Lukey is a fine player but I do not think he is at the same level as James Hird. Palmer will win a best and fairest or two for Freo but he won’t win a Brownlow. Morton might.

It is getting to the stage for the Demons where they should be just playing the kids and seeing what they have to offer. They are going to need to perform a pretty major overhaul of their squad at the end of the year and you have to give the young guys an opportunity to prove that they should be part of the future. Valenti is a rookie who looked extremely good in the preseason, got a late promotion, played a couple of good games but was then nonsensically dropped. Valenti is the type of hard tackling, ball winning midfield that the Demons should be playing week in week out. Morton is also out of the team this week and coming into the bye round should be playing.

The Lions have their own youngsters who have all shown plenty at AFLQ level but aren’t yet stepping up to demand spots every week at AFL level. The likes of Henderson, Proud, Polkinghorne, Leuenberger, Harding and Hawksley have all been tried (some more than others) and generally have shown glimpses but they have not done enough to cement their spots. Collier got his opportunity in the last round and unlike the others performed well. He should be a definite starter for this round. I have also been spruiking Proud’s case for a while and I hope he gets a recall soon. He has been dominating in the reserves and despite all the arguments put forth I simply cannot understand why he hasn’t been picked. His form demands he be given another opportunity but for some reason (not football related I suspect) he is being kept in the reserves.

Injuries

The Melbourne forward line has been decimated this year with the injuries to Neitz and Robinson and no-one has really stepped up to fill their shoes. Rivers and Carroll are equally important to the Demon backline and their injury problems have also seen the backline underperform. The performance of both the Melbourne forward and back lines this season has been far from good. The Demons are 15th in points scored and 16th in opponents scoring which tells a story of the performance of these two areas. It is also worth noting that the key defensive positions are now held by youngsters Warnock and Garland (they are doing reasonably well but need support and probably would have benefited by not being blooded together) and their most dangerous forward is rookie small Wonaeamirri. Up forward the much maligned Miller has finally be given a full time position up at CHF and has done okay without setting the world on fire and I don’t really know who they are playing at FF at the moment (they are playing three rucks so probably one of them – Johnson or Jamar?). Newton was supposed to be the heir apparent to Neitz but he has not come on as hoped.

For the Lions listed for test are Bradshaw, Lappin, Sherman and Johnstone . Brown has also been mentioned in dispatches as a potential out for this week. If they all come up then the Lions are extremely well place injury wise but with the bye coming up next week and playing the last placed team this week I would expect the Lions to be cautious. Drummond is not on the injury list so I assume he is right to go.

Style of Game

The teams are a contrast in styles. The Lions are a very direct team who likes to use the corridor if possible, thrive on pressuring the man with the ball and tackle everything that moves. Melbourne on the other hand try and play modern possession football, tend to unaccountable and are one of the poorest tackling teams in the competition (14th in fact). Melbourne players can also be a little slow to get rid of the ball so expect the Lions to come out chasing hard on Sunday.

Both teams are below average users of the ball and given that Melbourne are in last place it should not surprise people that the Demons are worse than the Lions in this regard. Both teams can have trouble hitting targets and this is especially a problem going inside the 50.

So what am I expecting? I think the Lions will jump out of the box using their hard running to force a lot of turnovers from the Demons. The Lions will look to counterattack quickly and should be able to use the corridor to funnel the ball into attack and put enormous pressure on the young Demons defence. I would expect the Lions to build a comfortable half time lead and for the game to be pretty scrappy in the second half as the Lions fatigue a little and take their foot off the accelerator. Expect a lot of turnovers.

Match ups

Up forward for us I would expect Warnock to go to Bradshaw if he plays and Garland to Brown. If Bradshaw doesn’t play expect Warnock to go with Brown. Warnock has done some good jobs this year on some tough opponents. Melbourne have tried to stack their backline a bit by playing Green and Bruce down back and these guys will have to be watched. Green has probably been the Demon’s best player so far this year playing loose man and Bruce has been splitting time between the midfield and as a medium back. I don’t think the Lions will go man for man but look for Corrie and Hooper to be sweating on Green and Bruce coming out of defence as both can be susceptible to be run down from behind. If either of them look like getting away don’t be surprised if Sherman does a stint on one of them to quieten him down and hopefully hurt the Demons going the other way for a goal or two.

In the midfield expect Dunn to go to Black and probably Bartram to Power although Power might try and run with the likes of McLean or Moloney. Selwood will get the first crack at Jones who has had difficulty shaking the tag all year. Sherman I think will run with McLean or Bruce if he starts in the midfield.

Down back Patfull will go with Miller and Merrett will get whichever of the three rucks the Demons are playing at FF. McGrath if he is playing will pick up Wonaeamirri. I like the Lions in all of the forward match ups.

In the ruck the Demons rucks have been getting their hands to the ball first quite a lot (4th in hitouts) but it has rarely been to advantage. White, Jamar and Johnson may all get time in the middle but none would be considered an elite as far as ruck work goes. Where White and Johnson will challenge Charman is around the ground. Both cover a fair bit of ground and are capable of getting quite a lot of possessions. Given that Melbourne like to have a couple of rucks on the ground at a time expect Clark to get some work dampening the running effect of the Melbourne rucks. The ruck battle could be the most interesting of the day.

My Prediction

Lions to have too much to play for – by 46 points.

 

[weevil]

Thanks to Quigley preview and lionbear for the media info.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I'm a firm believer in that once the ball is bounced, both teams are equal and anything can happen.

But like Quigley, I think the Lions simply have too much to play for, and will not be taking this game lightly.

No Neitz and Robertson hurts the Demons scoring power significantly, and if our defenders can shut down Miller and Wonneamiri, we should get the job done.

I wonder if Sherman will be brought back in to Re-Shermanate Davey.

 

[BLPC08]

I'm quietly confident going into this game. Last week we played below-par, yet still managed a victory. Wonaemirri and Miller would need to kick 7-8 goals between them for the dees to have a chance I would think, but having said that they were impressive against Sydney and I certainly give them a chance of going close.

Hopefully we will prove to be too strong though.

 

[dlanod]

I'm interested in the ins/outs this week. Given the list of "test"s we might have a lot of big ins:
Travis Johnstone (Hamstring) - Test
Justin Sherman (Back) - Test
Daniel Bradshaw (Hamstring) - Test
Nigel Lappin (Achilles) – Test
Matthew Tyler (Hamstring) - Test
Pearce Hanley (Hamstring) - Test

I'm going to go with Hendo (for Bradshaw), Copeland (for Sherman), Polkinghorne (for Johnstone/Lappin) as outs assuming only three out of four of those tests get up. Mainly to avoid the hard decision between Stiller and Collier for the final position. Stiller seems to get dropped pretty consistently and Collier had an impressive debut, so I'm half-expecting Collier to get the nod if all four get up.

 

[mpal6]

Roe missed out as well. Leigh mentioned Collier got his chance coz of Roe missing out. If he returns I expect Collier to play on the wing. Would be great to watch as someone mentioned before, Brennan and Collier tearing it on the wing.

Black did struggle in the last quarter, may be TJ straight swap for this weekend ?? Dalziell debut ??

Need to win by a good margin. That % needs an urgent boost.

 

[Duritz]

Roe missed out as well. Leigh mentioned Collier got his chance coz of Roe missing out. If he returns I expect Collier to play on the wing. Would be great to watch as someone mentioned before, Brennan and Collier tearing it on the wing.

Black did struggle in the last quarter, may be TJ straight swap for this weekend ?? Dalziell debut ??

Need to win by a good margin. That % needs an urgent boost.

Leigh mentioned that they try to give debutants a couple of games, I'd be surprised if Collier were dropped, unless we had a lot of ins. I'd have thought the Dees were a great chance for some experience for him.

RE the % - could be crucial end of year.

 

[Lehban]

forget the percentage just keep winning. The demons lost six and won one then lost another six so what worries me is they are due

 

[Grimreepah]

I'm going to go with Hendo (for Bradshaw), Copeland (for Sherman), Polkinghorne (for Johnstone/Lappin) as outs assuming only three out of four of those tests get up. Mainly to avoid the hard decision between Stiller and Collier for the final position. Stiller seems to get dropped pretty consistently and Collier had an impressive debut, so I'm half-expecting Collier to get the nod if all four get up.

Seeing as Stiller was a last minute call up I suspect he'd probably be the first to make way. I'd go Stiller (Johnstone), Hendo (Bradshaw or Leuenberger) and Polkinghorne (Sherman).

 

[mpal6]

forget the percentage just keep winning. The demons lost six and won one then lost another six so what worries me is they are due

If Melbourne didn't get their first win I would be worried. IMO that 1 win has cooled things off considerably. They still show the effort during games but I would rate the pressure to get the first win on board would be far greater. Thats not there anymore.

 

[T Rick]

I'm going to this game, Dad is going to Melbourne for work so i thought i'd skip along with him and catch a few games at the 'G, quite excited.

 

[Grimreepah]

Link

Melbourne coach Dean Bailey is toying with the idea of throwing untried basketballer-cum-footballer Stefan Martin arguably the toughest gig in football.Bailey suggested on Tuesday that the 21-year-old Martin, who nabbed the last spot on the Demons' senior list ahead of the 2008 season, could be assigned Brisbane powerhouse Jonathan Brown when the two sides meet at the MCG on Sunday.
The 198cm former junior basketball star has been groomed as a key defender with Sandringham this season and is in line for a baptism of fire in Melbourne's first home fixture against the Lions since 2000.
"Why not? Why not just throw him straight onto one of the best players to play the game?" Bailey said ahead of training at Junction Oval.
"Someone has to play on him. Absolutely. It's been done before. He would probably take up the challenge, Stef."

Martin has spent the first half of the season under Andy Lovell at Melbourne's VFL affiliate Sandringham.
"Stef's progression has been good during the year. He's taken a couple of steps back but he has been thereabouts," Bailey explained.

Surely Bailey is taking the piss...

 

[Hollow Knight]

Link



Surely Bailey is taking the piss...

Probably do a better job than Nathan Carroll.

 

[T Rick]

Umm... I think Jonathan Brown will be my captain in Dream Team this week after reading that! 200+? . BIG STEFAN MARTIN.

 

[awesome_assassin]

Good preview. As others have said, this is a MUST win to stay in touch witht he top 4. Unless Miller and Wonaeamirri kick 12 between them, i just can't see them kicking a big enough score to win. I hope as Quigley suggested that Mc Grath might line up on Wonaeamirri, who has been outstanding for the Dees, a real livewire, who knows where the goals are.

Some of those INS for us look good, assuming they pass fitness tests. I'd like to see Collier stay in, i hope he gets a few games under his belt. I hope the Lions put em to the sword and win by 60+.

 

[dlanod]

Link



Surely Bailey is taking the piss...

I'll believe it when I see it. I'll also then believe they've given up all interest in this year.

 

[charles202]

While i know the win (and %) is important and that you cant afford to take any team lightly, i really hope that at least one (if not both) Black and Adcock are rested from this game.

A two week break for both of these guys would do wonders for their second half of the season.

I would also like to see one more game from Clark at FF before Bradsahw returns.

 

[campbell]

While i know the win (and %) is important and that you cant afford to take any team lightly, i really hope that at least one (if not both) Black and Adcock are rested from this game.

A two week break for both of these guys would do wonders for their second half of the season.

I would also like to see one more game from Clark at FF before Bradsahw returns.

Agree, anyone with niggles, give em a break for the 2 weeks.
Clark was recruited after playing ff for his junior career. The doggies match he looked out of sorts and lost int he forward line.

 

[Cousin Jed]

Agree, anyone with niggles, give em a break for the 2 weeks.
Clark was recruited after playing ff for his junior career. The doggies match he looked out of sorts and lost int he forward line.

So we are forfeiting this game?

If I were you I would almost ignore everything that happened in the game against the Dogs. Total disaster.

 

[campbell]

So we are forfeiting this game?

If I were you I would almost ignore everything that happened in the game against the Dogs. Total disaster.

Where did I say that?
A perfect opportunity to get players over niggles, by giving them 2 weeks break. A good recovery plan for the 2nd half of the season.

We need to win all matches.I never take Melbourne for granted, they will surprise again this season. We need to go in hard and tackle hard this match. and put a tag on Davey if playing and weim( cant spell his name), both can and will carve us up.

 

[thedaz47]

hopefully martin on brown will be memories of zac dawson... not that i wish his career to be torn apart like zac's was

 

[dlanod]

I suspect his response was due to the fact that about half of the 22 we field most weeks seem to be carrying some niggle or other.

 

[campbell]

I suspect his response was due to the fact that about half of the 22 we field most weeks seem to be carrying some niggle or other.

but some are worse than other niggles, if you know what I mean.

 

[Lace Out]

No rest for anyone that doesn't absolutely need it this week.We need to field our strongest possible side to nail this one before everyone gets a break next week.

 

[campbell]

No rest for anyone that doesn't absolutely need it this week.We need to field our strongest possible side to nail this one before everyone gets a break next week.

I would rest Black, if as they say he is struggling with a groin injury.