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AFL Premiership Round 9
Collingwood V Geelong
Collingwood V Geelong
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Ladder:
Season Win/Loss
The Collingwood Perspective:
Originally Posted by [name]DaVe86[/name]
For the 2nd week in a row I preview a clash between 1st and 2nd on the ladder. Collingwood no doubt earnt some respect last week with a comfortable win over the in-form Fremantle. However, Geelong reminded the competition how good they are, dishing out a thrashing over Brisbane at the Gabba.
Collingwood host Geelong at the MCG this Friday night in what the media is building up as a blockbuster between the 2 premiership favourites. Ultimately, for each side, this is no more than a home and away match and an opportunity to cement a top of the table position. But no doubt it does carry an added bit of interest considering it is a near sell-out and Collingwood are shaping as Geelong’s greatest threat in 2010.
Geelong has been here before. Every year a new threat has emerged and the media has built the game up as a premiership defining battle. Interestingly, the result in the home and away season typically is reversed come finals time. Last year, the Saints beat the Cats in the home and away season, yet lost the Grand Finals. In 2008, the Cats beat the Hawks but lost the big one. In 2007, Port Adelaide surprised everyone with a Round 21 upset, yet lost by over 100 on Grand Final day. So if the Cats do happen to lose the clash this year, I hardly believe it is a sign of the end of a dynasty.
From the point of view of a Collingwood fan, I also hope that the Magpies treat this game as any other. We all saw Collingwood in 2008 dish out a thumping of Geelong. From that point on, Collingwood never was able to regain that sort of form, yet Geelong went on to bigger and better things. That means if anyone is sore from the trip to Perth, they should not be risked. The rotation of senior players should continue as well.
Last year, Geelong famously left out Steve Johnson in the clash against St.Kilda. Despite a loss, the football world knew Geelong still had an ace left in the deck.
Despite the fact that both clubs will be trying to play down this clash, it does not subtract away from the fact that I am bloody excited about this game. It should be an absolute cracker, and there are so many reasons why I can suggest either team will win.
The Formline
Collingwood’s form cannot be disputed. The last month in particular has been amazing and it is hard to see many cracks. Geelong has also had a fantastic 3 weeks following the shock loss to Carlton in Round 5. It is no coincidence that the return of Scarlett to the side in Round 6 has been a catalyst for this richer vein of form.
Geelong is leading the competition for disposals, which is always a healthy sign for the Cats. Unlike other teams who tend to over-possess, Geelong are able to use a high disposal rate to run teams off their legs. The Cats are also leading the way for points scored from kick-ins. They also lead the way for total points scored.
The biggest statistic for Collingwood is that it leads the competition for tackles. Nathan Buckley pointed out 2 years ago that Collingwood is the sort of side that is so reliant on tackling. If the Pies are down 1% in their hunger for tackling, then they can look very ordinary. The Pies have had over 90 tackles in each of the last 2 games. In that famous victory against Geelong in 2008, the Pies had 85. So no doubt tackling is a key indicator for Collingwood, and it is something they are doing very well right now.
Recent History
Much has been made about Geelong’s 73 point thumping of Collingwood in the preliminary final last year. That game was truly an indication of where Collingwood was at towards the end of the 2009 season. I have absolutely no doubt that Collingwood entered trade and draft weeks with that game firmly in mind, and responded by taking 2 senior players to harden up the midfield. I suppose the acquisition of Jolly and Ball will be well and truly tested this Friday night as they were recruited to be influential against teams like Geelong.
Ablett and Joel Corey were very damaging on that night, each picking up 34 disposals, whilst Chapman was at his absolute best with 5 goals. Ablett also scored 3 goals in a best afield display.
You have to go back to Round 3 in 2009 for the last home and away meeting between these 2 sides. Geelong won that game by 27 points, with Ablett again dominant with 37 disposals. However that was only good enough to get him the 1 vote. Chapman was named best afield with a 4 goal and 35 disposal performance, whilst Steve Johnson polled 2 votes for his 3 goal effort.
So no doubt that Geelong has responded ferociously following the 88 point to Collingwood in 2008.
At the Selection Table and Injury News.
Geelong is likely to regain James Kelly and Podsiadly who were rested from the Brisbane clash. It will most likely be Mitch Duncan and Simon Hogan who will make way, unless Geelong pulls any other selection surprises.
Mark Thompson has made mention about how hard the GABBA surface is and that players pull up sore following games at that venue. So Thompson may elect to rest anyone who is feeling some soreness.
Joel Corey and Brad Ottens remain on the sidelines, as does Max Rooke.
Collingwood has close to a full list to choose from, and selection has never been tougher for Malthouse. Playing in the VFL last week were Fraser, Prestigiacomo, Lockyer, Dick and Leigh Brown. Medhurst and Wellingham were out injured.
Medhurst remains unlikely as he did not train earlier in the week. However the form of Presti and Fraser will come into strong contention, despite the impressive form of Nathan Brown and Cameron Wood.
If Medhurst is unable to pass a fitness test, then Jack Anthony may hold his spot. I think Malthouse would love to have Wellingham back in the side given his footspeed and strong early season form. Luke Ball hurt his knee last week so there may be some doubt over his fitness. Fingers crossed he is right.
I think we’ll see Fraser, Wellingham and Prestiacomo come in for Wood, Macaffer and Nathan Brown.
Given Geelong will most likely play the 3 talls, the temptation will be to play 3 key defenders. I think this would be a mistake as Hawkins will back up ruck and Podsiadly will lead high. Carlton was successful by playing Walker on Hawkins and playing him attackingly. I think Collingwood should do the same or use Maxwell on the 3rd tall.
A look at Geelong.
The thing about Geelong is that you know they will come out to attack. Even if the game is slipping away, they will back in their midfield to get on top and will back in their structures. This worked against Essendon and Hawthorn, but failed against Fremantle and Carlton. They back Ablett, Bartel, Selwood and Chapman to win the midfield contests and they back their defence to generate run regardless of how much pressure they are under.
Carlton simply went head to head against Geelong and won the midfield battle. Geelong didn’t look to shut down the Carlton midfield, they instead tried to swing the momentum. Their best form of defence is attack. And they have the class through the middle to beat any side.
Carlton was able to win the clearances. They were also able to run off the 3 tall forwards Geelong played and expose Blake around the ground. No doubt Collingwood will look to do something similar.
The other key for Collingwood is shutting down Geelong from kick-ins. Collingwood set up a tight zone defence which has been close to inpenetratable. However, Josh Hunt has been a huge weapon for the Cats from kick-ins, having only turned it over once this year. Once Collingwood’s zone is penetrated, scoring against the Pies has been easy. Therefore, if Geelong is able to pin-point targets from kick-ins, then Collingwood’s zone defence may begin to look flimsy.
Must Stop
When planning for Geelong, there are 2 players I think you need to stop. It’s easier said than done. Personally, I rate them both as high. Their names are Paul Chapman and Gary Ablett. In fact, if you were to ask me to chose between Ablett and Chapman, I would be unable to decide. Ablett may get 40 disposals a week, but 10 will be pretty cheap. Chapman on the other hand gets 30 disposals but every one is damaging.
Gary Ablett – Collingwood has no tight taggers. Geelong are managing Ablett a bit this year and using him quite a lot up forward. Finding a good match-up for him is impossible. There is no one in the AFL that can match him both in the midfield and up forward.
Collingwood will play Ablett as they did Chris Judd. Judd had 40 disposals, but his kicking efficiency was around the 60% mark. No doubt the Pies will zone off him and look to put pressure on. I think Wellingham will have the main responsibility for running with him in the midfield, or Ben Johnson if Wellingham is unavailable. Either will look to expose Ablett going the other way.
When Gaz goes forward, generally Steve Johnson or Chapman goes onto the ball. Therefore, I would be using Harry O’Brien on him. Harry will take Steve Johnson initially, but the Collingwood defence will have to be flexible. Ablett will pick up 40 possessions, but Collingwood will aim to use his opponent when going into attack, and look to limit his influence up forward. If Ablett has to go into defence to pick up a few cheap possessions, Malthouse will be happy with that.
Paul Chapman – Just about my favourite player in the league. He is playing a lot in the midfield this year and is tearing teams to shreds. Again, Collingwood lacks a suitable matchup. Perhaps Shaw or Maxwell take him whilst he is up forward, and Luke Ball or O’Bree look to take account of him around stoppages.
Considering Geelong has little reliance on guys like Mooney or Hawkins to kick bags, its guys like Chapman who can pop up and kick 3-5 goals.
Other Cats of Interest
Joel Selwood – So much will come down to stoppages. If Collingwood is any hope, it needs to shut down Geelong in the centre clearance department especially. This is where Selwood is so good as he puts his head over it and if he doesn’t win the ball, he earns a free kick. He reminds me so much of Luke Ball in his earlier days. In fact, the matchup just sold itself. Luke Ball will take responsibility for Selwood around the stoppages. Joel started the season a bit slower as he found himself attracting defensive tags. He will get no tight tag on Friday, but no doubt Collingwood will target him as a key player to stop.
Matthew Scarlett – He is the general down back. Since he has returned, the Cats have won the last 3 games. He provides the biggest test to Chris Dawes in his short career. Either that, or Scarlett will go onto Jack Anthony if he plays. Scarlett has absolutely closed down Jack in the last few encounters. Either way, Scarlett not only holds the defence together, but has the capacity to make himself dangerous in attack.
Steve Johnson – He is back in form. He kicked 6 goals last week against Brisbane, 2 against Sydney and 5 against Richmond. He also dobbed 6 against Pt.Adelaide in Round 4. Doubts over his fitness pre-season were an over-reaction. He is still one of the most dangerous small forwards in the league. His midfield time has been a bit limited this year, but with the 3 big talls up forward, he has plenty to crumb off. Harry O’Brien will take the matchup to start off with, but I’m sure Toovey, Johnson and Heath Shaw will be called upon to mind him as the Geelong forward line rotates with Ablett, Bartel and Chapman.
Matthew Stokes – Was impressive in his return game last week and has a record of playing good against Collingwood. Stokes is mighty fit and is very fresh. To be honest, the extra 7 weeks he had off will be a benefit long term for the club as he will hit the 2nd half of the year feeling quite good and should have his confidence back. Toovey will get the match-up to start off I believe and must be very careful. Stokes has genuine speed and is crafty around goal.
James Podsiadly – He will most likely return. J-Pod has been the most dangerous forward for Geelong and will present Malthouse with a few dilemmas. I would not be playing 3 tall defenders to cover the 3 Geelong talls. Instead, I would be using Presti on Podsiadly, and Reid or Nathan Brown (whichever one survives) on Mooney. Then use Maxwell on Hawkins. With Podsiadly in the side, the Cats have tended to ignore Hawkins going forward. Plus Hawkins will be asked to back-up ruck. Therefore I’d be using Maxwell to peel off or play loose when Hawkins rucks.
Corey Enright – He was really good last week and is one of the underrated small defenders of the comp. He shuts down opponents and picks up 30 disposals a week, making him a vital component in most attacks from half-back. He may go onto Didak or Davis or even Thomas.
A look at Collingwood
It will all be about the forward pressure this week for Collingwood. The temptation will be there for Malthouse to drop Jack Anthony and bring in another small to play as a defensive forward. Geelong looks most vulnerable when their run off half back is under pressure.
Collingwood’s forward pressure is first rate and the best in the comp right now. However, as I said earlier, Josh Hunt’s precise kicking may have a real influence on the game and Collingwood’s zone.
The side that ran out against Geelong in the preliminary final last year looked drastically different to what will run out this Friday.
Jolly, Ball, Pendlebury, Fraser, Medhurst, Nathan Brown, Ben Reid and Chris Dawes were not there last year. Most of the names above will play Friday night. Prestigiacomo, Swan and Davis were also quite sore running into the prelim. You’re talking about a third of the side different in the space of half a year. No doubt the current Collingwood line-up looks far more imposing. The ability to move out older guys like Leigh Brown and Lockyer is a good example of the club moving forward. The early season form of Beams and Sidebottom also has all Collingwood fans really excited.
Collingwood has the greatest spread of goal-kickers in the AFL. That’s where the biggest threat is to opposition teams. However, Collingwood’s midfielders are running forward of the ball, leaving the defence wide open. This may work against easier sides...but will it work against Geelong?
No doubt Collingwood is in fine form, but if there is one area of concern it is defence. Sides are kicking good scores against Collingwood. As I said above, this is largely due to Collingwood’s extremely attacking game-plan. Despite a lot of goals been conceded in the last month, no side has got within 6 goals of the Pies. Further, the Pies have been without Prestigiacomo for a month. Geelong has seen first hand what losing your best full back does to a side. Collingwood has done remarkably well to introduce 2 younger players to the side to hold up this position.
Must Stop
Alan Didak – The talk above was about Steve Johnson, but Alan Didak is on par right now. Didak is in terrific form. He, along with Davis, have moved predominantly up forward again. The form of Ball, Wellingham and Thomas in the middle allows the Magpies to leave Didak up forward, which is also freeing him up from tight tags. I honestly think that if Didak kicks 3 or 4 goals, then Collingwood will win, whereas if Johnson kicks 4 then the Cats will win. These guys are the class up forward and are so creative. It will be most likely Corey Enright who will take this matchup.
Darren Jolly – Typically, Geelong have had a huge edge in the ruck in the past encounters between these 2 sides. This time, Ottens will not be playing, and Collingwood will benefit from the services of Darren Jolly who is back in form. Blake has a huge job on Jolly and will shoulder the majority of the ruck-work in the absence of Ottens. Collingwood will no doubt be looking at the ruck as an area in which they can get an advantage. Last week, despite the dominance of Sandilands, Collingwood smashed the Dockers in the clearances. This week, the Magpie’s midfield should benefit from first use if Jolly is able to get on top.
The big worry for Geelong is Jolly’s influence around the ground. Josh Fraser or Wood also have quite a say around the ground and will trouble Blake. Hawkins will be used in the ruck and will look to push forward to upset the Collingwood ruck-division. However, the Magpies would fancy Jolly to monster Hawkins in this position.
Other Pies of Interest
Travis Cloke – Is emerging as Collingwood’s most important player. Along with Heath Shaw, I think Cloke is one of the barometers of the side. He is now kicking goals and is benefitting from having talls such as Dawes and the resting ruckmen alongside him. The media have been quick to point out that Cloke only faced McPhee last week and will face stronger opposition in Harry Taylor this week. This is true. However, Tarrant was used on Cloke for large chunks last Friday and he too was absolutely monstered by Cloke. Taylor has a good record against Cloke, but it is so essential for Collingwood’s cause that Cloke has an impact.
Heath Shaw – Without a guy like Max Rooke in the side, I don’t think Geelong will put a super defensive forward tag onto Shaw. Shannon Byrnes may look to try and make him accountable. Geelong will instead try and free up a Milburn of Wojcinski down in their defence. This is the way Heath Shaw likes it, and his run out of half-back is so important to Collingwood. If it were a finals game, I think Geelong would be more inclined to tight tag him. But like I said, given this is a home and away game, Geelong will focus on their own structures at this point.
Scott Pendlebury – I actually think Ling will get the job on Pendles. Ling typically goes to Swan, but has often struggled given Swan’s high rotating rate, and the fact he plays multiple positions. His speed also worries Ling a bit. Pendlebury has really stepped up over the last month, and strikes me as the sort of player Ling enjoys tagging. Given Collingwood’s high midfield rotations, Ling will do a number of different roles. Pendlebury was missing for the preliminary final last year, so will be super keen to impress.
Leon Davis – His form is still not fully back, but his forward pressure is as good as ever. It will be super important this week. I do not care if Leon does not even accumulate 1 disposal, all that matters is that he tackles and chases like a man possessed. That is how Collingwood will win this game if it is able to. Leon becomes very important. Of course a goal or 2 would be very handy as well.
Steele Sidebottom – Geelong would fancy themselves to be capable of covering any tall options Collingwood throw up there. However, its the wealth of smalls that may worry the Cats a bit. The Geelong small defenders are very capable, but like zoning off and winning the ball themselves. We saw Betts, Garlett and Yarran tear the Geelong defence up. So it could be guys like Steele Sidebottom who are able to pop up and cause headaches. Like Leon Davis, Steele’s greatest asset as a forward is his tackling. He is a fantastic tackler and his forward pressure is top notch.
Ben Johnson – I could’ve put Dane Swan down for my last player analysis, but I thought I’d throw up an unsung hero. Johnson has been one of the most impressive stories of 2010 to date. His pace will be essential as he’ll be responsible for one of the quicker Geelong midfielders. But he’ll also add a lot attackingly. You want the ball in his hands around the 50 metre arc as his awkward looking kicking style never misses a lead-up player or a flying shot on goal on the run.
Fantasy Advice
I’ve cracked into the top 800 in Dream Team, and my supercoach is flying so it’s all good news from my end.
Unfortunately I don’t have Gary Ablett, so I’m bracing for the worst this week. Set him captain without a thought in the world. He could score 200! Otherwise, Jimmy Bartel could be a good option, despite a modest home and away record against Collingwood. Jimmy returned to form last week and could be set for a good second half of the year.
Tread cautiously with Swan in case he does get the Ling tag, although I think he’ll still do enough to beat it. Medhurst is no certainty to return and he is not presenting as a fantastic fantasy option this year so it could be time to trade him. Although your side will be strengthened by the return of J-Pod.
Heath Shaw should bounce back from his low score last week and should escape the tag.
The game is on live this Friday night, so it should be a cracking dream team night.
DaVe’s Soapbox
Michael Johnson is the latest player to be caught with a prohibited substance. The debate has arisen over players who have been handed down a strike by AFL drug testers and remain anonymous. Ultimately, I have no problem with the drug testing regime implemented by WADA and the AFL, however it does worry me that guys on their 2nd strike remain un-named, whilst a guy like Michael Johnson is publicly ridiculed for being caught.
My major concern is that a team could realistically trade a player on their second strike without opposition clubs knowing. I think that any player on their second strike should be named and shamed. They should get away with it once as a warning, but AFL clubs should be well aware of any players who are on their last strike.
It’s a shame the topic of drugs is back on the agenda...but ultimately the AFL playing group is quite good and its a relatively low strike-rate considering how many young players are involved in the game.
The Wrap-Up
If it were Tennis, then Geelong would still be ranked number 1. I do firmly believe however that Collingwood has now taken the mantle of number 2 and the greatest challenger. St.Kilda and Western Bulldogs are still strong contenders as well and I am not writing them off, but as it stands the Magpies are looking very strong.
Many have said this game means more to Collingwood than Geelong. I don’t buy in to that. I think it means the same for both sides. It is about making a statement to the comp. If the Cat’s win, then they have disposed of yet another challenger. If the Pies win, then they make the statement to the league that they have beaten the best. But at the end of the day, it is only 4 points up for grabs. So it means the same for both clubs.
Given Collingwood is a game ahead, it is equally important to Geelong to cement their spot in the top 2 given the evenness of the competition. Regardless, I will not be writing off Collingwood’s premiership chances if they lose on Friday night. However, it is very important they put up a good show. Another humiliation will be confidence sapping.
Both sides are coming from tough interstate trips, though Collingwood gets an extra day break.
Ultimately, the game can go either way, so I’m leaving tipping up to you guys. I can’t wait!
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
The Geelong Perspective:
AFL Round 9 Collingwood V GeelongOriginally Posted by [name]Rosso[/name]
The Spiel
A top of the table battle awaits us on Friday night. 1 v 2, clash of the titans, the heavyweight bout to knock the other guy out. These are the games that you tell your friends you went to if you were lucky enough to snag a ticket or otherwise your make sure the couch is clear, wife / husband (if your that way inclined, not that there’s anything wrong with that) / partner / kids are either in bed or advised that speech will not be tolerated until Saturday morning and most importantly, beer is cold.
The Opposition
Ahh the Pies. Funny really. Most Aussies love Pies but hate “the Pies”. The Collingwood faithful live and die by “you either love them or you hate them” and boy does it ring true. If you believe what you read in the media the Pies have been into every big name in the business throwing wads of cash at the likes of Judd, Brown, Fev and even good ol’ Plugger back in the day and when you scan their list you can see why. There was an outcry a few years back when not a single Maggie made the cut of 40 for All Australian honours and to put it simply, the Pies don’t have genuine superstars. Of the outfit doing the rounds at the moment, Swan and Shaw would make the cut of 40 with Pendles & the little criminal Dids (no accusation, just with that mouth guard he really looks the part), knocking on the door but that’d be it for mine. Now that’s not a knock on the Pies. They’re sitting pretty on top of the table so perhaps it more so their depth or evenness that is making them such a strong side rather than their star quality. Looked quick on Friday night and pressured the Dockers into making mistakes. Lost 1 game for the year against the Saints and were shaky against the Dees but have been the form side of 2010.
Us
I believe Bomber and the coaching panel “saw the light” last year and maybe it was 3 time premiership player, 0 time minor premiership player Nigel Lappen that pointed it out. The cats switched their focus from finishing on top to the winning the flag. The import ants of resting players or giving the 3 weeks to get over a 2 week niggle seemed more important than winning a late season match. This has carried on this year and there’s a strong focus for the group to be in top nick come September. The Cats have been playing some devastating footy over the last month and given they were a few months behind most other teams with pre-season, it’s not surprising. Off season reports of a Geelong dive should have been reports on some skanky pubs rather than the reigning premiers. Geelong simply has too much talent and too much focus to just pack it in. They are nothing if not professional and that has led to them to play Harlem Globetrotter footy since 2007. Yes sometimes they look that much better.
In the past
2009 Prelim – A close first half saw the Pies with a glimmer of hope put that was put to bed when they ran out of legs and the bigger bodied Geelong players out muscled them mid way through the third. The Cats running away to a 12 goal victory. Chappy snagged 5 and Ablett & Corey were unstoppable.
2009 Round 3 – Chappy and Gaz blew them away after a blistering start by the Pies. Chappy finishing with 4 sausage rolls to add to his 30 odd disposals and Gaz suffering a bout of leather poisoning. Cats by 27 points.
2009 NAB Cup – Yes it doesn’t count except if you win!!!! I don’t think the Pies would have gone out and ordered ‘2009 World Champions’ T-shirts but then again, it’s dangerous to presume!! Similar story to the above where the Pies got away only to be run over convincingly come the final siren. 76 points put a sour note on the Pies promising preseason with Selwood picking up the Mick Tuck medal and Chappy & Gaz again having it all go their way.
2008 – Didn’t think I should go back this far as thousands of dollars have been spent for me to lie on the couch and describe 2 matches, one being the GF and the other, this. The Pies were outstanding. It was like watching the grade 6ers playing keepings off against the Preps. Just a dominant display by a relentless Magpie outfit.
2007 Prelim – Don’t for one minute think I’ll bring up 08 and not include 07!!! A monster of a game that was probably not far off the 09 grand final. This was pressure personified. Stokes stood up when the Pies got off to their customary flyer and it went to and fro until the cats got some breathing space early in the last. The cats celebrated early letting the Pies get back within striking distance before the final bell caught them short. Cats home by enough to flow the Power a week later!!
Newbie’s
Collingwood has added Swans ruckman Darren Jolly to the side while Luke Ball fits into the male anatomy drafting of Dick, Cox and Goldsack in recent years. Jolly is yet to reach the heights of last year when he became not only a very valuable supercoach scorer but a more than handy player for the Swans. Ball has added some midfield grunt but nothing that would be making the Saints kick themselves just yet. Not new but Dawes is getting a look in lately and looks a handy type. Dominant at VFL level and needs some time and faith invested in him and they’ll reap the rewards.
Geelong has unleashed the JPod and is hoping after a week of to refresh the batteries, he’ll be right to do a JPod shuffle after a few majors. His stats are also officially known as a JPod touch from now on. The strong marking veteran of 5 games has gone from strength to strength and is the main target up forward for the cats. Mitch Duncan has also impressed in his debut year but with the recent addition of Varcoe and Stokes, he may be forced out.
The players that count - Pies
Swan – Just a ball magnet like his father. His old man tore it up in the VFA and Dane isn’t much different. Once again he can expect to have a date with Dinga (Ling) on Friday night so kicks will be hard to come by. Swanny is just a powerful young man who experiences more running than a toilet in an Indian Curry House. The key to the Pies engine room.
Didak – Has a left foot to die for and can cut you up if given the room. Pace to burn, aggressive and just enough cheek to get the opposition off their game. Corey Enright might again be the man to try and curb Dids.
Pendles – A very smooth mover and you can see his basketball background with his lateral vision and ability to find time and space in close. Won’t get a tag but will have to ensure that Bartel or Selwood doesn’t get too far away.
Jolly – The second big fella they purchased after Cam Wood didn’t prove to be the savoir. Hasn’t quite clicked this year but could really be a force around the ground this week against the less mobile baby giraffe. Ruck contests against Blakey will be very competitive. The battle between Jolly/Wood & Blake & Hawk will go a long way to deciding the outcome.
Shaw – Mops up and creates attack a lot better than when he drives home from the pub on a Sunday arvo. An elite backman who stops his opponent first and foremost and then hurts them going back the other way. Is often tagged by a defensive forward and Stokes or Varcoe will line up on him.
The players that count – Cats
Ablett – Just does everything so well. Is probably worth pinch hitting in the ruck because the way he’s going he’d impact the game there too. Racks up the stats (Supercoach captain as a must), wins the hard ball, hurts the opposition with his disposal and kicks goals either on the ball or resting up forward. Voted by the players as number 1 for the past 3 years, a fourth is only 6 months away. The Pies haven’t put a heavy tag on him for a while so it will be interesting to see who gets the gig.
Chappy – Has cut up the Pies in recent outings with plenty of goals and disposals. As tough and hard as they come is the 09 Norm Smith Medallist. The Bazillion has had Chappy in the past but the Pies will need to go for a more lock down player to curb his talents. A brilliant match winner.
Scarlett – Will try and get Anthony or Dawes and use his run to create. Came back after a month out and kept Bradshaw to 2 possessions and then slipped up letting Fev have 3. Like a fine wine just gets better with age and shows no signs of slowing down.
Varcoe – Missed the start of the season after an impressive pre-season. A new found confidence has led to him being able to impact games not only in the forward line but around the ground. One of the reasons that cats chased Lovett during trade week in 08 was his line breaking ability through the middle of the ground. With a bigger tank and an aerodynamic hair cut, Trav is showing why they were so happy to get the Central Districts boy with the dud foot.
Podsiadly – With Moons playing a more true CHF lead up role the JPod is relishing the space up forward. Has more experience as a key forward than Mooney and Hawkins combined so it’s no wonder that he’s kicking goals. The Pies will be planning to kerb his influence meaning the captain Maxwell will have to man up. A week off to freshen up means to JPod is fighting fit.
Conclusion
You can’t fault the form of either of the 2 sides but has Geelong dropped off from their 73 point PF win last year or have the Pies improved so dramatically? Both sides go in with their 3 tall Caucasian forward set up (as opposed to Carlton’s 3 small indigenous forward line) so there will be plenty of long kicking and crumbing opportunities. The cats are one side that is no longer spooked by the massive crowds that will ascend on the G, usually a distinct advantage of the black and white. For the Pies they need to keep the ball away from the cats but not to a boring as hell St Kilda style way. More so by using smart disposal and run and carry like they did against the Dockers and pressure, pressure, pressure. Geelong has to stop the Pies early. Momentum goes a long way and confidence levels will play a big role. They always get off to a flyer against us and from there momentum needs to be turned. If the cats can get on a roll watch out. Tsunami football is what we do and the Pies have been on the end of it against us as of late. As the form line suggests, we’ll have the close one, but I’m backing in the cats will have too much class in the midfield and up forward to do enough to win by 12 points in a classic.
