Injury All things COVID-19 - including the impact on Season 2020

[Zouz Kitty]

That's the first thought that popped into my head the moment I heard the 2020 season was cancelled. Unless he decides to come back next year for a proper send off.

I’m really sad now

On the bright side, with a year off, Selwood can recover from his injuries + niggles

As can other players.

 

[Play it Sam]

T

No way!
Remaining open has far greater risks + consequences!

If Australia is fortunate + only 2% of our population dies, it is still 500,000 dead Australia. Are you really prepared to gamble on even more deaths?

Border Protection advised Morrison to close the borders weeks ago.

As usual money is Morrison’s only concern, at the expense of Australian lives.

AFL has made the responsible decision.

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So it's Karen's fault? What a silly biatch.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

The question now becomes: under what circumstances will the lockdown measures be lifted? Because how can that possibly be justified when the coronavirus is still going around? What's the exit path now that these measures have been instituted? It's so hard to see how we get out of this situation.

Hopefully a vaccine will be created

 

[Seeds]

The question now becomes: under what circumstances will the lockdown measures be lifted? Because how can that possibly be justified when the coronavirus is still going around? What's the exit path now that these measures have been instituted? It's so hard to see how we get out of this situation.

Exactly. You can shut down society for a couple of weeks possibly. You cant for 4 plus months. many vulnerable people (elderly and kids and disabled) will fall through the cracks and die from non virus reasons. Crime rates will rise dramatically. But are they seriously going to unwind these measures in the middle of winter when instead of hundreds of corona cases we are dealing with tens of thousands?

there seems to be very little forward planning about how this ends. A vaccine is simply too far away.


this is going to be one massive social experiment and we are going in blind.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

T

So it's Karen's fault? What a silly biatch.

It’s ScoMo’s fault for forcing people to shake his hand

 

[you pick one]

It certainly was morrisons argument a week ago.

they could easily fix it too. run a school holiday care program for health workers children only.

Even easier those who can and wish to take their kids out of school should be allowed to do so,those that can't for various reason should have the option to still send kids to school where they will be safe even if their education may not be full on short term.

 

[Seeds]

Without wanting to cause alarm or undue stress to people, I'm interested in finding out people's views on covid-19 on the 2020 season. I understand that football should be the least concern here and I'm not wanting to downplay the impacts to society, but it would be a good exercise to understand in advance.

The fatality rate with covid-19 seems to be in the 2% range, and if uncontained the upper limit for Australian fatalities would then appear to be 500k dead. Obviously the health department would like to do everything they can to slow the spread or contain this at every opportunity and prevent that outcome. Even if you think this is no worse than a bad flu season the media coverage means the government needs to be seen to be taking drastic action regardless.

So with that in mind, I'm trying to put some thought behind the probability of the following outcomes:

A) Spectators banned from attending some matches.

This makes sense where the government feels the virus is uncontrolled in the community and opportunities to spread it must be minimised. 40-90k crowd attendances would be a massive risk that I couldn't see being allowed if the virus is not considered contained.

This happening to at least a few matches I see as a near certainty but I'd say there'd probably be a blanket period in the season where this applies to every game. My guess is that this period will last as long as it takes for new cases to plateau.

Prediction: 70% chance this happens for minimum 3 rounds

B) A player testing positive for covid-19 putting effectively forfeiting their whole side for 2 rounds for quarantine.

Players travel extensively and would be high risk spreaders of the virus with a 14 day incubation. If a player tested positive then there's a very high likelihood he has spread it to the whole playing group. Having that team play against another side presents a high risk of spreading it to the other side. In a case where this happens there's a possibility that the next 2 matches would be canceled while the players are quarantined.

This action would be drastic but I think unlikely and they would only quarantine the players shown affected.

Prediction: 80% chance they quarantine only affected players, 20% chance of blanket quarantine.

C) A playing group losing min 30% of their best 22 players to illness for 2 rounds

This I see as more likely. If a player has tested positive they'd be unlikely to play regardless due to the illness, but with long incubation periods and players in close contact during training, I'd think it pretty likely that at least one playing group would be hit mostly all at once.

Prediction: 50% chance this happens to at least one club

D) Temporary bans on open training sessions and media

Almost a certainty at peak periods I would think and as it's easy to implement I'd say it's a 90% chance

E) players training in isolation

Reasonably likely that once players start testing positive the clubs will attempt to minimise the chances and isolate players from each other. Some impact to team cohesion and ability to implement game style changes mid-season. Possible impacts to fitness level

Prediction: 50% chance this happens to at least one side

F) Number of refunded tickets/ partial membership refunds over spectator bans leads to liquidity problems for AFL, causing them to sign unfavourable rights deal with fox early to guarantee solvency. Impact to growth of salary cap in AFL and especially AFLW.

There's a few steps in a row to get to this one so I'd say it's not likely. But it looks plausible.

Prediction: 10% chance TPP growth matches inflation only

As I said, I'm not wanting to alarm anyone unduly but just interested to see if what I'm imagining is roughly in line with what others are thinking, or am I just manning the panic stations a little early.

Mods also feel free to move or remove etc if this is in the wrong place or out of line somehow

to think this post was only 3 weeks ago.

 

[Play it Sam]

Don't give me this overworked leaders"arranging packages and insurance" shit.
You can't claim insurance if you're DEAD. Priorities!

Doctors (except the handful of Gov't ill advisers) have been begging lockdown and closed schools for weeks.
SLOMO.

 

[Seeds]

Don't give me this overworked leaders"arranging packages and insurance" shit.
You can't claim insurance if you're DEAD. Priorities!

Doctors (except the handful of Gov't ill advisers) have been begging lockdown and closed schools for weeks.
SLOMO.

No doctors havnt. Their views are quite mixed like the rest of us. Most of the experts have said schools should not be closed.

 

[Ray Donovan]

The question now becomes: under what circumstances will the lockdown measures be lifted? Because how can that possibly be justified when the coronavirus is still going around? What's the exit path now that these measures have been instituted? It's so hard to see how we get out of this situation.

Exactly the elephant in the room, what is a reasonable level of risk. Because the only way to completely rid Australia of it well there is no way.

Are we essentially kicking rocks and waiting for "vaccine" to catch up or 8 weeks I hate this term but flattening the curve to a respectable level of risk and coming back out. Which is essentially what China and S.Korea did.

The one advantage we have is we have test cases to follow so we should get reasonable information from S.Korea about what to expect when full services resume.

It's impossible to shut everyone down completely in my view so are we just running skeleton crews across the services.

I've just worked out I have no fking idea lol

 

[Zouz Kitty]

My wifes a doctor in charge of the coronavirus unit at her hospital. She is furious that they are closing schools and childcare. She is going to lose a third of her staff. nurse loses will possibly be worse.

Spain are converting hotels into hospitals.

The number of ICU beds is worrying in most countries

 

[Play it Sam]

No doctors havnt. Their views are quite mixed like the rest of us. Most of the experts have said schools should not be closed.

I agreed with the Doctors I know and the global data. The "expert" reasoning behind keeping schools open was suspect. Kids congregating in malls and essential services workers kids will have nowhere to go? Please, look to the response from other sensible countries. All a moot point now of course, simply delayed the inevitable and allowed more kids and teachers to become carriers.

 

[patience]

Yes Good point.

Next year *crosses fingers*

 

[ATSAM]

It’s ScoMo’s fault for forcing people to shake his hand

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And he did it today with the NSW Premier. Only she didn't avoid his hand.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

to think this post was only 3 weeks ago.

To think I was wildly understating it too

 

[Zouz Kitty]

You get that this is why it is so hard?
You cannot make a purely COVID decision as there is an economic impact. And it will be severe for millions of Australians. Believe it or not that matters too.

Or do you think the casual hotel worker in Hobart last month went in to work with COVID just cos he's an a-hole?
He went in as he has no sick or annual leave entitlements and needed money to put food on the table. Provisions that have now been accounted for with stimulus. Do you think there was a delay is shutting gatherings cos they wanted to infect us all? Now there are temporary measures in place to support businesses.

This is constantly moving feast, and the number of moving parts to take into consideration is substantial.

My point is that it is very easy to sit in the cheap seats (with a bias, don't lie, the fires have given you one) and be critical.
It is much harder to manage a recession borne out of a virus started in another country, with imperfect data.

I don't envy them, and like your fellow man in the street, now is the time to be supportive and come together, not fight and bicker.
This will get a lot worse, and we'll need our government a lot over the coming months.

‘Noice’ bit of confirmation bias there, well done

 

[calder_daddy]

All tradies be like " what's an essential service " ?

100% I work in construction for a fairly large company that’s Australia wide and we’re waiting to hear if we have a job to go to on Tuesday or not.
For us it’s simply the world of the unknown

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I agreed with the Doctors I know and the global data. The "expert" reasoning behind keeping schools open was suspect. Kids congregating in malls and essential services workers kids will have nowhere to go? Please, look to the response from other sensible countries. All a moot point now of course, simply delayed the inevitable and allowed more kids and teachers to become carriers.

The reasoning to keep them open had nothing to do about the above but purely about the 50% of essential medical staff who have school/day care aged children who are probably going to have to stay home with schools being closed.
Less medical staff = more deaths.

 

[allrighty]

Whew...we're safe, Kitty!

Thank **** I was seriously worried for my parents.



Who are dead.


Years ago BTW.

Still counts.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

And he did it today with the NSW Premier. Only she didn't avoid his hand.

Morrison’s solecism is staggering!

Last week he suggested that Australians in regional + rural Australia should make a curry for those in isolation or who have Coronavirus + take it to them

 

[Ray Donovan]

100% I work in construction for a fairly large company that’s Australia wide and we’re waiting to hear if we have a job to go to on Tuesday or not.
For us it’s simply the world of the unknown

Yeah it's scary because I think the bigger commercial sites we might get moved off. Residential though Electricity, Gas, Faults with people home a lot more is that considered essential.

In saying all that are people going to want tradies they don't know on residential projects or will it just drip feed the industry. Maintenance is going to have to continue on a skeleton scale level.

Never said this before but it's probably a good time to be stacking shelves or working in one of those Woolworths warehouses

 

[Art Vandelay_]

‘Noice’ bit of confirmation bias there, well done

 

[allrighty]

That’s my understanding too.

It’s easy to predict Morrison’s slow response when we consider the Drought, Bushfires, Climate Change, Hawaiian holiday, ignoring the 23 former Emergency Service chiefs, spending $250m refurbishing Shark One, $150m to NASA for Mars exploration, his frat boy lump of coal stunt +++

I think it’s terrific the Premiers have ditched him.

I think there's a lot of political brinkmanship going on and has been for a while. But as you know Kitty I have nearly 100 staff and I can tell you it's almost impossible to get this right. What is right today can be totally wrong tomorrow and there is nothing any of us can do about it. I would say to critics right now walk a mile in the shoes of those making the calls and see how you like it, it is no fun at all. Until then the easiest thing to do is to take potshots from the outside with all care and no responsibility. You Kitty at least have common sense.

 

[cats_09]

This is the latest (7:54pm) from the NRL who, unlike the AFL, have decided they want to forge ahead with their season:

The ARLC and NRL are still weighing up housing every player and coach in a compound to keep the season going without the risk of travel or social interaction.

Gladstone in Queensland could soon become the home of the 2020 season.

“That’s a possibility. We are costing that at the moment and looking at all the logistics. There’s 1300 rooms up there, you can separate all the players,” V’Landys said.

“Again it’s minimising risk. It’s all about minimising the risk to our players. We want our players healthy, that’s the paramount consideration of whatever we do. That’s why we’re listening to the government and health advice from our experts.”

‘They’re safer playing than not’: NRL refuses to close despite AFL shutdown

As the AFL season pauses from Sunday night, the NRL aims to forge on - even if it means moving hundreds of players and staff away from their families.

7news.com.au

 

[allrighty]

I have to say my concern is for a lockdown whatever the reason, and then when do we actually come to a point of un-lockdown, if ever? At which point I will be looking for Katniss.