Analysis Are we over-rating our list?

[brysie]

I think the other factor which a lot of people don't mention, posters, commentators and 'experts' alike, is any coaching movements and innovations and the effect these can have on a list.

The reason for this is most likely the most obvious - it's an intangible or unknown that's so difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Take Richmond in 2017 for example - wholesale changes were made to their coaching staff and their gameplan was tweaked slightly to emphasise their strengths (Race, Riewoldt, Martin) through the use of 'role players' who were capable of providing the necessary structure to allow this.

Our structure this year appeared to be similar to Richmond's. How long this style holds until the next innovation will have a large bearing on our 2019, as will our ability to innovate ourselves, or adapt to any innovations.

The list at present has a good mix. There are some weaknesses, but our structure and style allows us to maximise our strengths.

 

[Buckleys_Chance]

Another thing to take into account is belief. Every player on the list knows that we have the systems and structures in place to match it with the best. No excuses for poor execution this year.

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[Albert Parker]

Not in terms of height, innterms of weight. I was not being clear.

Moore hijslef is unable to hold a KPF accountable one on one, relies on a run and jump at the ball. He wont be able to hold off a forward unless.he gains size in the offseason and his hammies get corrected

He is listed at 102kg. He's a perfect size for the modern KPP. Athletic, tall, quick and a good size in terms of weight. Unless you're not talking about Darcy Moore?

 

[Albert Parker]

I think the other factor which a lot of people don't mention, posters, commentators and 'experts' alike, is any coaching movements and innovations and the effect these can have on a list.

The reason for this is most likely the most obvious - it's an intangible or unknown that's so difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Take Richmond in 2017 for example - wholesale changes were made to their coaching staff and their gameplan was tweaked slightly to emphasise their strengths (Race, Riewoldt, Martin) through the use of 'role players' who were capable of providing the necessary structure to allow this.

Our structure this year appeared to be similar to Richmond's. How long this style holds until the next innovation will have a large bearing on our 2019, as will our ability to innovate ourselves, or adapt to any innovations.

The list at present has a good mix. There are some weaknesses, but our structure and style allows us to maximise our strengths.

Someone always has to play the race card (see the bold from your text) ;-)
You're right, the addition of Buddha, Longmuir and Boyd appears to have worked.
Biggest change by all accounts was Bucks acknowledging that he couldn't try and do everyone's job.
It seems that Longmuir has helped with our defensive structures though.

 

[Scodog10]

Geez mate, 4th best midfield?. The same midfield that got an absolute reaming by a very average West Coast midfield in the big dance?. Even bloody Shuey carved us up and all we are doing is adding Beams. I think our midfield is very over rated.

Yep as a group they had a terrible GF day, but it’s also the same midfield that mauled Richmond and GWS the two weeks prior and GF day is only one factor amongst many to consider. Add Beams from there!

 

[MayneSpudHunter]

He is listed at 102kg. He's a perfect size for the modern KPP. Athletic, tall, quick and a good size in terms of weight. Unless you're not talking about Darcy Moore?

Hammies though? Do you find Moore reliable as a KPD.?? i dont thats for sure, unless the club is confident that he can get his body right, i dojt see him being effective

 

[Ocram69]

Actually Kennedy missed a ton of games for the Eagles and they did finish second.
Geelong didn't make top 8, with Dangerfield available all season either.
So your point is not well made.

Any of our mids miss, we can cover it. Treloar an example.
This is a list analysis discussion and I was noting where I thought our list was most vulnerable.

I'm pretty sure Geelong made the 8

Actually Kennedy missed a ton of games for the Eagles and they did finish second.
Geelong didn't make top 8, with Dangerfield available all season either.
So your point is not well made.

Any of our mids miss, we can cover it. Treloar an example.
This is a list analysis discussion and I was noting where I thought our list was most vulnerable.

Are you sure Geelong didn't make the 8? Pretty sure they got belted by Melbourne in the elimination final. I guess your point is not well made either

 

[mike123]

Hammies though? Do you find Moore reliable as a KPD.?? i dont thats for sure, unless the club is confident that he can get his body right, i dojt see him being effective

I don’t even see him as a KOD, he plays more lik a third tall.

 

[domus]

Not in terms of height, innterms of weight. I was not being clear.

Moore hijslef is unable to hold a KPF accountable one on one, relies on a run and jump at the ball. He wont be able to hold off a forward unless.he gains size in the offseason and his hammies get corrected

Joel Hamling is a lot shorter and lighter than Moore and he is a premiership key position defender for the Dogs and now a highly valued player at Freo.

 

[domus]

Actually Kennedy missed a ton of games for the Eagles and they did finish second.
Geelong didn't make top 8, with Dangerfield available all season either.
So your point is not well made.

Any of our mids miss, we can cover it. Treloar an example.
This is a list analysis discussion and I was noting where I thought our list was most vulnerable.

The Eagles did struggle without Kennedy and would not have won the flag without him. My point is very well made. Take the presumed best player out of any line up and they will suffer. I happen to believe we could cover Grundy better than some teams could cover their best.

 

[MayneSpudHunter]

Joel Hamling is a lot shorter and lighter than Moore and he is a premiership key position defender for the Dogs and now a highly valued player at Freo.

Yes but moore because of his size and body structure wont be able to hold off opponents like Dunn can. He cant play as the main KPD because of this issue. He can and will become a good player given he can get his body in order

My only issue is the management of Dunn and his retiremrnt coupled with the development of Kelly. It will be important for Kelly ro gain experience from dunn next season and hopefully fulfil the KPD role into 2020. This is where i see issued

 

[Tarkyn_24]

The Eagles did struggle without Kennedy and would not have won the flag without him. My point is very well made. Take the presumed best player out of any line up and they will suffer. I happen to believe we could cover Grundy better than some teams could cover their best.

Struggled to cover him not being out there on Grand Final day

 

[Albert Parker]

Hammies though? Do you find Moore reliable as a KPD.?? i dont thats for sure, unless the club is confident that he can get his body right, i dojt see him being effective

No player is reliable unless they are on the field of course. He's really well positioned to be an accomplished KPP at either end when he gets his body right.
My point was more about his physical credentials to play KPP (and your queries to the contrary)- height, weight, athleticism/speed.

He may turn out to be a 'dud' with his body breaking down, but I am hopeful that our efforts to send him to German will bear fruit and that he'll be a key part of our efforts in 2019 and beyond.

 

[Albert Parker]

I'm pretty sure Geelong made the 8

Are you sure Geelong didn't make the 8? Pretty sure they got belted by Melbourne in the elimination final. I guess your point is not well made either

hah! You're right, Cats did make top 8 of course. Discussion was about Top 4, hence my point about Geelong failing with Danger available but Eagles did make despite Kennedy's long absences.

 

[nahnah]

No we are underrating our list, we will win the next 3 flags with relative ease

 

[partypie]

If Dusty Martin hurts himself for a significant period, Riichmond will struggle to make top four. If Kennedy misses multiple games, the Eagles will struggle to make top four. If Dangerfield ………….

Well I can report that he managed to get through the Walk for Prems around Albert Park Lake without incident yesterday morning.

 

[jackcass]

Yes but moore because of his size and body structure wont be able to hold off opponents like Dunn can. He cant play as the main KPD because of this issue. He can and will become a good player given he can get his body in order

My only issue is the management of Dunn and his retiremrnt coupled with the development of Kelly. It will be important for Kelly ro gain experience from dunn next season and hopefully fulfil the KPD role into 2020. This is where i see issued

That's a skill thing though isn't it rather than a size issue? His current listed weight of 102kgs compares to other KPD's like Blicavs (100kg), Rance (94), Harry Taylor (94), Astbury (96), Tahlia (98), May (102) etc etc.

 

[Kirby]

Moore is a big unit at the right weight.

Some of you guys should go stand next to him.

 

[swoop42]

So I've been thinking of posting this for the last week, and wasn't sure whether it was relevant or not, or whether it was deserving of its own thread. But it has been dominating my thoughts about the club since the trade period ended and I couldn't think of any other thread to discuss this specific question.

I know we were a kick from winning the flag, and I still think that there were illegal holds on the 2 key marks that led to the eagles last goal (but can't blame the loss on that, because there was shit umpiring both ways all game), but the Eagles were the better team for the last 3 quarters, and our weaknesses over that period were obvious, and had been there most of the season. (And when it ultimately mattered they also beat us at what supposed to be our area of strength, in the midfield - and they did that in both finals).

But (AFL) history is not kind to teams that lose the GF. Since 1990, only the Eagles (twice) have gone from nothing, to a losing GF, to then winning one. Both Hawthorn and Geelong have rebounded from a losing GF, but on the back of a recent flag. Thats it. We have also seen that teams in each of the previous 2 GF's (including 1 winner) dropped out of the top 8 immediately.

Obviously we don't know contract or salary cap figures. And we don't know what kind of discussions have gone on behind the scenes between clubs that may have been rejected.
But Ned Guy made a comment at the trade deadline that was along the lines of "we were happy with our list that almost won a flag, and had to look at Beams when the option arose". Was that just said in retrospect because of how the period played out, or was it a true reflection of our approach to player movement?

It just seems to me that other than bringing in bargain depth player in Jordan Roughead, we have completely ignored our actual areas of weakness and made the whole focus of our a trade period targeting another midfielder - and gave up our 2019 first rounder in the process (a pick that could quite easily rise as high as pick 10-12).
And my take on other threads is that most people have viewed our player movement as highly positive, and anyone who criticises it is shot down.

Do people honestly think that we have made the right changes to take us to the next level?
Is our list really as good as our 2018 results showed?

Our recent history would suggest that when we make one GF after a period of absence we follow it up with another shot at the flag the following season.

As far as I can tell the major mistake Adelaide made during the preseason was selecting the Deliverance package from collective minds.

They thought it would deliver them a premiership but as it turns out it was just a whole lot of pig squealing and they never recovered.

 

[Sea fog]

Not in terms of height, innterms of weight. I was not being clear.

Moore hijslef is unable to hold a KPF accountable one on one, relies on a run and jump at the ball. He wont be able to hold off a forward unless.he gains size in the offseason and his hammies get corrected

Is good a contested mark though. Guess we might have to sacrifice some strength for what Bucks thinks he brings to the table in defence which is ability to run and create.

Dunn returning should be huge because he has the body strength and reliability. Guys like Langdon will have improved on the back of being asked to do more.

 

[Dundalis]

Sier. Is he another Cripps/Oliver? All the other players mentioned here are known factors, even if they have upside remaining. Sier came from nowhere, and it's difficult to know what his upside is, but if his improvement is similar to last year, then he's likely one of our best midfielders which, with the addition of Beams allows for a lot of flexibility with our midfield.

Basically Sier and whether Cox can be consistent forward, especially with the new hands in the back rule, are the two factors that interest me the most next year, apart of course from not having the list decimated with injuries again. Sier's development also allows us to keep De Goey forward and develop him into our version of Stevie J. Not having a real dominant key position forward makes having a player like him in the front half pretty important I think.

 

[jonbe54]

Sier. Is he another Cripps/Oliver? All the other players mentioned here are known factors, even if they have upside remaining. Sier came from nowhere, and it's difficult to know what his upside is, but if his improvement is similar to last year, then he's likely one of our best midfielders which, with the addition of Beams allows for a lot of flexibility with our midfield.

Basically Sier and whether Cox can be consistent forward, especially with the new hands in the back rule, are the two factors that interest me the most next year, apart of course from not having the list decimated with injuries again. Sier's development also allows us to keep De Goey forward and develop him into our version of Stevie J. Not having a real dominant key position forward makes having a player like him in the front half pretty important I think.

Sier has not come from nowhere - some just paid no attention to his development in the two's - which is why bigfooty is such a laugh.

 

[Mr Pie]

I don't think we necessarily addressed our list needs, thanks in part to Grubby, but i don't think we are over-rating the list, well maybe a little.

Beams is a player you just can't say no to.

Lynch had clearly made his mind up a year ago to go to the Tugs and i can't fault him for that.

May is too expensive and wanted too many years for his age, his output and position

Hogan wanted to get home, we were never in the picture anyhow.

So it seems there weren't too many options too address list needs. Roughead case in point. Mind you I've a good feeling about the acquisition of Roughie.

Alot went right in the last few weeks to get to the GF, but i get a sense of 02 about this team. Maybe we got there a year or two early.

Next year will give us a much clearer indication of where we sit.

Either way we are finally on the right trajectory. YAY.

 

[Jafo]

I don't think we necessarily addressed our list needs, thanks in part to Grubby, but i don't think we are over-rating the list, well maybe a little.

Beams is a player you just can't say no to.

Lynch had clearly made his mind up a year ago to go to the Tugs and i can't fault him for that.

May is too expensive and wanted too many years for his age, his output and position

Hogan wanted to get home, we were never in the picture anyhow.

So it seems there weren't too many options too address list needs. Roughead case in point. Mind you I've a good feeling about the acquisition of Roughie.

Alot went right in the last few weeks to get to the GF, but i get a sense of 02 about this team. Maybe we got there a year or two early.

Next year will give us a much clearer indication of where we sit.

Either way we are finally on the right trajectory. YAY.

Hopefully it’s not another 7yrs for a flag though.

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

I felt like we all under rated the list this year. The obliteration of Richmond in the prelim was the most exciting and unexpected thing I’d seen from Collingwood since the 2010 prelim v Geelong and the 1990 second semi against Essendon.

In the GF I thought we could win if Grundy was able to dominate and the midfield dominate theirs. After Q1 these things didn’t happen. The Weagles seemed to get some momentum changers from the umps and maybe in hindsight it was hard for our mids to maintain their hard running intensity for four quarters without the week’s break the eagles had.

But the overwhelming sense of belief and team intensity they displayed this year felt more like a team on the cusp than a team that is over achieving and about to be washed up like Adelaide last year. The youth of our list is the exciting part. Obviously the key for us is to get some luck with injuries and to find a key defender that can stay on the park for more than five minutes.