Game Day Around The Grounds Rounds 21 - 24

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By my count, we can still miss finals, and mathematically we can finish as low as 11th if the following occur:
  • Bulldogs def Hawthorn
  • St Kilda def Richmond
  • GWS def Port
  • Essendon def GWS AND Collingwood
  • Sydney def Adelaide (away) AND Melbourne

Every result that falls outside of those pushes our minimum ladder position up one slot. In other words, to make finals guaranteed we need three of those lines to not occur, barring some huge swings in percentage or draws.

Those are the key games because they involve teams outside the scramble for 5th-12th. Other games between those teams still matter but only one of St Kilda/Geelong can win their game (ie: if St Kilda lose to Richmond, then next week whoever loses St Kilda/Geelong can no longer get ahead of us, so our minimum finish goes up a slot).

Technically, we could be guaranteed finals by tonight if all 3 games go our way. More likely we lock in finals by beating Gold Coast next week but if we lose that it could technically be a long week heading towards our last game.

But yeah, go Hawks.

On another note, we can still catch both Port and Melbourne for top 4. It is probably unlikely, but right now I would say it is more likely to occur than us missing finals altogether, particularly if GWS beat Port this arvo.
 

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What the hell has happened to Bailey Smith?
 
By my count, we can still miss finals, and mathematically we can finish as low as 11th if the following occur:
  • Bulldogs def Hawthorn
  • St Kilda def Richmond
  • GWS def Port
  • Essendon def GWS AND Collingwood
  • Sydney def Adelaide (away) AND Melbourne

Every result that falls outside of those pushes our minimum ladder position up one slot. In other words, to make finals guaranteed we need three of those lines to not occur, barring some huge swings in percentage or draws.

Those are the key games because they involve teams outside the scramble for 5th-12th. Other games between those teams still matter but only one of St Kilda/Geelong can win their game (ie: if St Kilda lose to Richmond, then next week whoever loses St Kilda/Geelong can no longer get ahead of us, so our minimum finish goes up a slot).

Technically, we could be guaranteed finals by tonight if all 3 games go our way. More likely we lock in finals by beating Gold Coast next week but if we lose that it could technically be a long week heading towards our last game.

But yeah, go Hawks.

On another note, we can still catch both Port and Melbourne for top 4. It is probably unlikely, but right now I would say it is more likely to occur than us missing finals altogether, particularly if GWS beat Port this arvo.
We can just keep winning and who cares. And then *
 
We can just keep winning and who cares. And then *

Of course. One more win for us takes those lines to be the requirements to knock us out of 6th (ie home final) so it is still relevant though. Two more wins guarantees a home final, and throws top 4 into the mix. Exciting times.

But our last two are potentially broken axle games. No one wants to be feeling pressure going into a random afternoon slot on the Gold Coast, particularly given how variable their form has been. It would be nice as supporters to be able to relax and enjoy those games, and makes decisions about rushing players back from injury a lot cleaner.

Caleb's hand of god might be the best thing that happens to us from that perspective. The end to the year is probably now about booting up for finals and wondering how far we can go, not stressing about a last minute collapse like last year.
 
What the hell has happened to Bailey Smith?
He didn't even touch alcohol before he was drafted. He managed his meals only eating what the HP specialists told him to eat, exercising every day without fail, being very careful what he drank.

It sounds great, but people like that can lose all control when things change later in life.
 

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Game Day Around The Grounds Rounds 21 - 24

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