Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[The Warlord]

Russia is doing it's own "begging" for stuff from Iran and North Korea.

They seem to be doing just fine for Kalibrs and Iskanders.

 

[Millky95]

Because they don't have the capability, men or equipment to protect it. Or because they are defeated on the wider battlefront and agree to give it up as part of the peace deal.

The only peace deals will be a full withdraw of Russia from Ukraine or the complete and unconditional surrender of Ukraine.

We should give them the capacity and equipment to defend themselves

 

[Episode IV]

And no doubt further trouble would come from the bullies, unless of course they're defeated first.

Just out of interest, and not singling you out in particular on this point as it has been raised by several others:
Considering the thread focus, as in the backdrop to the war, who is it you consider the bullies to actually be?

 

[Episode IV]

The question remains "Why are you supporting Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine?"

What, in your opinion, constitutes a "legal" war?
What conditions would need to be met, and whose approval would you seek for it?

 

[wannabejack]

The Ukranian side is so shrill and hysterical. It demands complete and unquestioning fealty and as soon as they feel someone is voicing another opinion they're labelled an enemy.

It's indicative of wider Ukranian mindet which is that of a peasant society. The village and clan are as far as the Ukranian mental horizon extends.

It's why Ukraine was the land of the pogrom and endless communal violence against those like Jews and Roma deemed outside the protection of the clan.

Rest assured I'm encouraged to be considered an enemy by the increasingly psychotic pro Bandera Ukranian side.

I note the Israelis are also unwilling to assist Ukraine for much ghe same reason.

You believe this yet you support the genocide in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian Genocide: Nobody can claim they did not know

The overwhelming evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine together with the openly genocidal intent on display in Moscow mean nobody claim they did not know about Putin's Ukrainian Genocide, writes Peter Dickinson.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[wannabejack]

They seem to be doing just fine for Kalibrs and Iskanders.

Work well on Ukraine's civilians.

 

[Chief]

The Ukranian side is so shrill and hysterical. It demands complete and unquestioning fealty and as soon as they feel someone is voicing another opinion they're labelled an enemy.

It's indicative of wider Ukranian mindet which is that of a peasant society. The village and clan are as far as the Ukranian mental horizon extends.

It's why Ukraine was the land of the pogrom and endless communal violence against those like Jews and Roma deemed outside the protection of the clan.

Rest assured I'm encouraged to be considered an enemy by the increasingly psychotic pro Bandera Ukranian side.

I note the Israelis are also unwilling to assist Ukraine for much ghe same reason.

Where did Zelensky touch you?

 

[Zidane98]

The Ukranian side is so shrill and hysterical. It demands complete and unquestioning fealty and as soon as they feel someone is voicing another opinion they're labelled an enemy.

It's indicative of wider Ukranian mindet which is that of a peasant society. The village and clan are as far as the Ukranian mental horizon extends.

It's why Ukraine was the land of the pogrom and endless communal violence against those like Jews and Roma deemed outside the protection of the clan.

Rest assured I'm encouraged to be considered an enemy by the increasingly psychotic pro Bandera Ukranian side.

I note the Israelis are also unwilling to assist Ukraine for much ghe same reason.

Telling you mention "the Ukranian side" and also keep mentioning Bandera who is an absolute irrelevance to Putin's imperialistic invasion.


Funny you mention the Israeilis.

Ukraine's Azov Regiment visits Israel: 'Mariupol is our Masada'

Azov officer Ilya Samoilenko, one of the defenders of the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, led the delegation to Israel.

www.jpost.com

I also note your nonsense about pogroms and Jewis in Ukraine. Let's see what actual Jewish people in Ukraine think:

Yaakov Dov Bleich, Chief Rabbi of Ukraine: Russia needs to do denazification at home - UJE - Ukrainian Jewish Encounter

Yaakov Dov Bleich Chief Rabbi of Ukraine, and UJE Advisory Board member spoke with iStandWithUkraine about sensitive issues related to Russia’s war

ukrainianjewishencounter.org

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine demolishes Putin’s excuse for Russia’s invasion

There have been powerful messages of solidarity from the Chief Mufti of Ukraine and the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, but it is the statement from Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi that most exposes the lies Russia is telling to try to justify its invasion

khpg.org

The Chief Rabbi of Moscow had to flee becauuse he did not support Russia's fascist invasion of Ukraine. He even advises that Jewish citizens of Russia should flee the country:




Your attempts to paint Ukraine as anti semitic are cynical and obvious when it is Russia that is clearly far more anti semitic.


Once again you are exposed as a pro Russian shill on this forum.

 

[Zidane98]

They seem to be doing just fine for Kalibrs and Iskanders.

How are they going for commercial jets? Any more for them to steal and strip for spare parts? Skies in Russia are pretty quiet for a country so utterly reliant on commercial aviation.

 

[Zidane98]

Sums up Russia's efforts in Ukraine

 

[Zidane98]

Those pesky guys from the US are rigging the weather so Russia can't extort Europe for gas supplies:




Definite proof of a satanic new world order IMO.

 

[rodney86]

Was there a roster mix up or something? Usually you only get one pro Russian on here at a time but now there two of the clowns.

 

[Zidane98]

Was there a roster mix up or something? Usually you only get one pro Russian on here at a time but now there two of the clowns.

Good point. One for night shift, one for day shift usually. Maybe because of the big freeze in St Petersburg they've got nothing else to do.

 

[Saint]

Telling you mention "the Ukranian side" and also keep mentioning Bandera who is an absolute irrelevance to Putin's imperialistic invasion.


Funny you mention the Israeilis.

Ukraine's Azov Regiment visits Israel: 'Mariupol is our Masada'

Azov officer Ilya Samoilenko, one of the defenders of the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, led the delegation to Israel.

www.jpost.com

I also note your nonsense about pogroms and Jewis in Ukraine. Let's see what actual Jewish people in Ukraine think:

Yaakov Dov Bleich, Chief Rabbi of Ukraine: Russia needs to do denazification at home - UJE - Ukrainian Jewish Encounter

Yaakov Dov Bleich Chief Rabbi of Ukraine, and UJE Advisory Board member spoke with iStandWithUkraine about sensitive issues related to Russia’s war

ukrainianjewishencounter.org

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine demolishes Putin’s excuse for Russia’s invasion

There have been powerful messages of solidarity from the Chief Mufti of Ukraine and the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, but it is the statement from Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi that most exposes the lies Russia is telling to try to justify its invasion

khpg.org

The Chief Rabbi of Moscow had to flee becauuse he did not support Russia's fascist invasion of Ukraine. He even advises that Jewish citizens of Russia should flee the country:




Your attempts to paint Ukraine as anti semitic are cynical and obvious when it is Russia that is clearly far more anti semitic.


Once again you are exposed as a pro Russian shill on this forum.

If Simpkin is accusing the Ukrainians of something, the Russians are definitely doing it multiple times worse.

They must really be short of equipment and troops.

The Ruble is back to where it started before the war. The coffers are nearly empty, gas and oil revenues have plummeted and GDP is being propped up by military spending which is literally being blown away.

No doubt the purchase of ammunition from Iran and North Korea is going to be in hoc for future deliveries of equipment back to those two countries, the only remaining buyers of Russian military hardware.

 

[Episode IV]

SOme of that might be true, but this sentence is the stupidest piece of analysis I've read in a long time.

Why not fall back to Moscow and have a million troops defending every square km? Lots of troops and a terribly short line of contact.

I don't know on what planet an invasion works better if you lose cities you've captured so that you can consolidate forces in a smaller area.

Do you guys even read the stuff you re-post?

Actually, there are several examples of where giving up ground (in this case, a major city) in order to pursue a more strategic goal was either done, or should have been.

I suppose the most pertinent one would be the Battle of Stalingrad in 1943, given it involved Russia as well and remains ingrained on the psyches of all involved (and of those who weren't).
If, for the sake of argument, the Germans had not made such a big deal of it to the point where hundreds of thousands were lost on both sides when good sense gave way to hubris, the entire war may have had a very different outcome.

I'm not making any direct comparisons here, not assuming I know what or how the Russians are thinking, nor am I defending any one in particular; I'm cynical enough not to trust the assertations of either side as to how 'the war is going" in either a tactical or strategic sense.
I'm just pointing out that it's probably worthwhile gaining some knowledge of matters you're discussing before you start calling other people stupid. Glass houses, and all that.

 

[Zidane98]

If Simpkin is accusing the Ukrainians of something, the Russians are definitely doing it multiple times worse.

They must really be short of equipment and troops.

The Ruble is back to where it started before the war. The coffers are nearly empty, gas and oil revenues have plummeted and GDP is being propped up by military spending which is literally being blown away.

No doubt the purchase of ammunition from Iran and North Korea is going to be in hoc for future deliveries of equipment back to those two countries, the only remaining buyers of Russian military hardware.

Yep. The economic cost of the war for Russia right now is going to become debilitating. Up until recently they had at least solid oil & gas revenues to rely on but both those income sources have now been obliterated. Not to mention the continued struggle to make basic things like automobiles with air bags etc. Wonder how long Vlad can sustain plummeting natural resource revenues?


Pretty funny that he thought he could manipulate the world oil market to $300 / barrel. Russian oil is now completely replaced on the world market and that is without the Saudis increasing production.

 

[Saint]

Actually, there are several examples of where giving up ground (in this case, a major city) in order to pursue a more strategic goal was either done, or should have been.

I suppose the most pertinent one would be the Battle of Stalingrad in 1943, given it involved Russia as well and remains ingrained on the psyches of all involved (and of those who weren't).
If, for the sake of argument, the Germans had not made such a big deal of it to the point where hundreds of thousands were lost on both sides when good sense gave way to hubris, the entire war may have had a very different outcome.

I'm not making any direct comparisons here, not assuming I know what or how the Russians are thinking, nor am I defending any one in particular; I'm cynical enough not to trust the assertations of either side as to how 'the war is going" in either a tactical or strategic sense.
I'm just pointing out that it's probably worthwhile gaining some knowledge of matters you're discussing before you start calling other people stupid. Glass houses, and all that.

They're an invading army. There's a difference between going around an objective which will cost too much and could be surrounded anyway and giving up cities and territories you've already taken.

Also, giving up Kherson and Karkhiv were not choices they were given. They were the only logical choice left after being outmaneuvered.

Next you'll be praising dead Russian soldiers for electing to die so as not to take up too many rations.

 

[Zidane98]

Actually, there are several examples of where giving up ground (in this case, a major city) in order to pursue a more strategic goal was either done, or should have been.

I suppose the most pertinent one would be the Battle of Stalingrad in 1943, given it involved Russia as well and remains ingrained on the psyches of all involved (and of those who weren't).
If, for the sake of argument, the Germans had not made such a big deal of it to the point where hundreds of thousands were lost on both sides when good sense gave way to hubris, the entire war may have had a very different outcome.

I'm not making any direct comparisons here, not assuming I know what or how the Russians are thinking, nor am I defending any one in particular; I'm cynical enough not to trust the assertations of either side as to how 'the war is going" in either a tactical or strategic sense.
I'm just pointing out that it's probably worthwhile gaining some knowledge of matters you're discussing before you start calling other people stupid. Glass houses, and all that.

No reasonable person can describe Russia's military tactics as clever or strategic. Their current tactics are simply to thrown thousands and thousands of cannon fodder at the front line for small gains in territory. Ukraine aren't going to do that, they actually have respect for their military.


Putin is clearly desperate even for a propagandic victory. He is happy to send as many conscripts as possible to their deaths to achieve it.


What is more telling is Surovikin being demoted. No way does that happen if Russia are winning on the wider front. Don't be surprised if he jumps out a window in the next few weeks.

 

[Zidane98]

They're an invading army. There's a difference between going around an objective which will cost too much and could be surrounded anyway and giving up cities and territories you've already taken.

Also, giving up Kherson and Karkhiv were not choices they were given. They were the only logical choice left after being outmaneuvered.

Next you'll be praising dead Russian soldiers for electing to die so as not to take up too many rations.

Vatnik logic. Can't lose a battle if they retreated in which case it was clever tactics.

 

[Episode IV]

They're an invading army. There's a difference between going around an objective which will cost too much and could be surrounded anyway and giving up cities and territories you've already taken.

Also, giving up Kherson and Karkhiv were not choices they were given. They were the only logical choice left after being outmaneuvered.

Next you'll be praising dead Russian soldiers for electing to die so as not to take up too many rations.

I haven't been praising anyone. But I suppose, in light of your seeming omniscience as to what I and everyone else is thinking, I'll qualify that by adding that that is particularly true in your case.
A solid point is a solid point, regardless of its origin or whether or not I agree in general with the overall stance of the person who posits it. You have yet to say anything which places you in that company.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Why would he need to when russia is making progress? A slow grind trying to minimise russian and civilian casualties while destroying the ukraine army

Yet you've conceded that nuclear war is the only optional end.

 

[Episode IV]

No reasonable person can describe Russia's military tactics as clever or strategic.

I didn't say they were. I was merely pointing out that the position some have that giving up ground... not one inch (sound familiar?), or expecting others to adhere to it, is the stance of a fool.

Their current tactics are simply to thrown thousands and thousands of cannon fodder at the front line for small gains in territory. Ukraine aren't going to do that, they actually have respect for their military.

Provided it receives enough in aid to stay combat-ready, yes. Prior to Western intervention, it was working quite well.

Putin is clearly desperate even for a propagandic victory. He is happy to send as many conscripts as possible to their deaths to achieve it.

I wouldn't go so far as to say he's "happy" about it. And both sides are desperate for propaganda victories, the only difference is in which bowl you lap from when they present you with them.

Thing is, Russia has used this sort of tactic for a very long time to great effect - it won them a war once, if I recall correctly. Probably would have won them this one too, if all things had remained equal.

I think they're currently learning on the fly that they made a big mistake in thinking Ukraine would have to stand on its own, and they're slowly adjusting to that. Whether that is too slowly or not, time will tell.

What is more telling is Surovikin being demoted. No way does that happen if Russia are winning on the wider front. Don't be surprised if he jumps out a window in the next few weeks.

Unsuccessful commanders (or, to be more precise, commanders who weren't as successful as the politicians expected them to be) have a long history of being demoted, replaced, or gotten rid of in many other ways. Other times, the exact opposite happens - they're promoted upwards or sideways, and left to sink or swim on their own recognizance. I would not be surprised at all if Surovkin was found incapacitated in some way soon - nor would I be surprised if he is given a different command, or takes a different career path.

 

[Andre]

Ukraine was supplied with all the old Soviet materiel in Europe and a year later its all gone and they're begging for Western stuff

With the old Soviet material and (with a few exceptions like HIMARS), mostly the excess/older/out of date Western materials they've had Russia pulling T-62's out of storage and afraid to fly in Ukraine skies. Surely even the most ardent Russian apologists can see the Soviet/Russian equipment is inferior to the Western equipment. Which given this, the Russians of course are bringing out the 'I don't want to mention Nukes, but look at this fine Nuke, yep, it's a fine Nuke, Nuke, Nuke, who mentioned Nukes? We have lots of Nukes, but everyone knows we have the best Nukes, so no need to mention Nukes' regularly. Every time so far Western equipment against Soviet, it's been the Ukrainians by plenty. Get Western tanks (and ideally Western Aircraft) in there in enough numbers and the Russians get rolled back across the borders.

 

[Andre]

Yep. Imagine if Ukraine had of just bent over for Putin & co. He would be emboldened to move on to his next target for expanding the Russian empire.

Europe in general owes Ukraine big time for resisting the fascists. Putin wont be attempting any more invasions after this one. If he knew the results 1 year down the track he wouldnt have invaded Ukraine either as he actually believed the people would welcome his fascism and the war would be over in a matter of days.

Russian state media even had a victory statement drafted in expectation of it.

Ukranians are heroic.

Not just Europe. The poor performance of Russia has been the best thing for Taiwan. Both the Chinese have lots of Russian/Russian knock off equipment they'd have a lot less confidence in, along with seeing the West will support a democracy invaded. With the addition their plans for Taiwan would have included the expectation that Russian forces in Europe would have tied down a lot of US forces there. With Russia doing so poorly, the US feel confident enough to leave a minimal presence there, so poorly some European countries would feel confident to send their own forces to help, which would never have been a consideration prior to Ukraine taking it right up to Russia. However it turns out, Ukraine has done more to help democracies around the world in the 21st century then any other country, by a long margin and deserves all the help we can give it for it.

 

[Millky95]

Not just Europe. The poor performance of Russia has been the best thing for Taiwan. Both the Chinese have lots of Russian/Russian knock off equipment they'd have a lot less confidence in, along with seeing the West will support a democracy invaded. With the addition their plans for Taiwan would have included the expectation that Russian forces in Europe would have tied down a lot of US forces there. With Russia doing so poorly, the US feel confident enough to leave a minimal presence there, so poorly some European countries would feel confident to send their own forces to help, which would never have been a consideration prior to Ukraine taking it right up to Russia. However it turns out, Ukraine has done more to help democracies around the world in the 21st century then any other country, by a long margin and deserves all the help we can give it for it.

100% if Ukraine fell inside a week like most people expected then China would have invaded Taiwan by now