Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Chief]

Not everything that you disagree with is a conspiracy.

But Azza is on his conspiracy thing.

 

[wannabejack]

Who is Mr Bates?

Sorry, Mr. Mate.
It was past my bedtime.

Maybe I meant Master instead of Mr.

 

[Bloods86]

What strengthened Zelensky's resolve to fight on was the intervention of Boris Johnson, who it is well known was trying to curry favour with US imperialism as an attack dog to provoke the war with Russia.

The BBC functions as a conduit for the propaganda of British imperialism. There is simply no reason to believe the BBC above Aaron Mate.

Good lord, is the Boris conspiracy still floating around.

 

[Aussie in exile]

They haven't really risen, extraction level has though

44k by ppp, pretty good for society excluded from the dominant section of the world

You can take the russian out of russia......

The church is overated, they have lower attendance rates than the US. Communism had an affect

Yah

Also pretty popular

Debatable

Saved from the doldrums of the post soviet 90's

That's capitalism baby

Overstated

Calculating Ruski, he did save the puppy one time

Is that puppy tRump?

 

[Aussie in exile]

What strengthened Zelensky's resolve to fight on was the intervention of Boris Johnson, who it is well known was trying to curry favour with US imperialism as an attack dog to provoke the war with Russia.

The BBC functions as a conduit for the propaganda of British imperialism. There is simply no reason to believe the BBC above Aaron Mate.

You've really lost the plot now. Seek help

 

[IlovethePies]

Good lord, is the Boris conspiracy still floating around.

Truth has a habit of remaining relevant.

 

[Bloods86]

Truth has a habit of remaining relevant.

Yeah, but that doesn't explain this nonsense. Except that it fits your narrative so it must be true.

Ukraine and Russia weren't about to make peace, Russia had ridiculous demands and themselves admitted they weren't close to a deal. Ukraine was also learning about what Russia was doing in the fog of war.

 

[IlovethePies]

I have referenced below a link to Responsible Statecraft, the magazine of the Quincy Institute, hardly a hot bed of revolutionary socialism.

In it, the article they run through information from some of the prime sources, and come to the opinion that a deal between Ukraine and Russia was on the table at Istanbul, and it was pressure from the Western leaders, notably Johnson, that were major factors in Ukraine refusing to continue.

Finally, one only needs to consider the history of Britain since 2014 in its role in arming Ukraine and training its military to understand that the perspective of British imperialism was always war against Russia.

2015: Under Operation Orbital, i Britain trained 22 000 Ukrainian troops and a further 14 000 since then at least.

2021, June: A British war ship entered waters claimed by Russia off the coast of Crimea in an incident that almost provoked direct fire between Russian and British forces

After the Ukraine war broke out in February 2022, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the UK was taking measures “to bring down the Putin regime.”

Sep 2022: in another provocation by Britain, the Russian military came close to shooting down a British spy plane near Crimea

Britain has supplied $7.8 billion in military support and $5 billion in "non-military" support to Ukraine

April 2023 : Britain became the first NATO power to deliver to Ukraine long range missiles (Storm Shadow)

intelligence documents leaked in March 2023 confirmed that UK special forces troops are operating on the ground, in the Ukrainian war zone

In fact, British special forces had been involved in the war against Russia from the start. Only two months after the invasion, in April 2022, the Times published: "British special forces are training local troops in Ukraine. Serving UK soldiers are on the ground for the first time"

A high ranking general in the British army (Robert Magowan) also confirmed that Royal Marines were conducting "discreet" operations in Ukraine in April 2022.

These were the circumstances under which Johnson made a trip to Istanbul to be present at the negotiations between Zelensky and the Putin government.

Do you really believe that Johnson didn't play a role in sabotaging them?


Link to Quncy Institute article:

Diplomacy Watch: Did the West scuttle the Istanbul talks or not?

A former official’s insider information sheds light on how peace negotiations failed in April 2022

responsiblestatecraft.org

 

[wannabejack]

Exclusive: Early Peace Plan Shows Russia's Intent To Neutralize Ukraine

RFE/RL’s Russian investigative unit, Systema, has obtained a draft treaty that Moscow proposed early in talks that began days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It would have left a truncated Ukraine deeply vulnerable, with a minuscule military and no hope of protection from the West.

www.rferl.org

 

[Mobbs]

Exclusive: Early Peace Plan Shows Russia's Intent To Neutralize Ukraine

RFE/RL’s Russian investigative unit, Systema, has obtained a draft treaty that Moscow proposed early in talks that began days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It would have left a truncated Ukraine deeply vulnerable, with a minuscule military and no hope of protection from the West.

www.rferl.org

The very first draft of the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine has been published. According to it, Ukraine was supposed to recognize Crimea as Russia's, but later the Russian Federation's position changed

The investigative project "System" (RFE/RL) has published the earliest known draft of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. On March 7, the peace treaty in its original form was drawn up for the third round of negotiations. The document was given to the publication by a Ukrainian source, and a Russian source confirmed its authenticity.

According to the terms of the original agreement:

• Ukraine must “recognize the independence” of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk republics, and also recognize Crimea and Sevastopol as “an integral part of Russia.”
• Ukraine must take on the costs of restoring the infrastructure of Donbass, which has been destroyed since 2014;

- Ukraine must reduce the size of the army to 50,000 people, which is 5 times less than by February 24, 2022;

- Ukraine is not allowed to join any military alliances or conclude any military agreements with other states;

• Ukraine is prohibited from “developing, producing, acquiring and deploying on its territory missile weapons of any type of basing with a firing range greater than 250 km”;
• All sanctions against Russia since 2014, including Western and Ukrainian ones, must be lifted;

- Russian should become one of the state languages in Ukraine;

- Any bans on symbols associated in states with the victory over Nazism must be abolished and no longer introduced. That is, Soviet symbols must be allowed;

- Ukraine must cease procedures for joining the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court;

In response, the Russian side promised a "ceasefire" and some "measures," but not a withdrawal of troops. At the same time, Russian representatives wanted to oblige Ukrainian troops to withdraw to permanent deployment points, and all foreign specialists from the West were to leave the country, while Russian troops, along with the National Guard, were to remain in their positions and monitor Ukraine's fulfillment of "all obligations under the agreement."

At the same time, in March 2024, The Wall Street Journal published a draft peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which was discussed after the negotiations of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which took place in Istanbul at the end of March. The document is dated April 15, 2022, and in it, Russia's position softened.

It was determined that Ukraine would have a security mechanism similar to Article 5 of NATO, according to which, as expected, the guarantor countries: Great Britain, China, Russia, USA, France, Russia, Belarus, Turkey would be obliged to defend Ukraine with military forces in the event of an attack.

However, it was not possible to agree on this point, since the wording proposed by Ukraine meant that the signatories to the treaty would be able to intervene on its behalf both collectively and individually. Russia, however, insisted on only collective intervention. That is, Russia itself, as a signatory to the treaty, could, in theory, veto the decision to defend Ukraine from its own attack.

The point on territorial integrity was also changed. As Current Time writes, Ukraine, according to the April agreement, remains within its recognized borders, including Crimea, Sevastopol and some unspecified territories to which security guarantees do not apply. The communiqué adopted in Istanbul at the end of March indicated that the status of Crimea and Sevastopol would be resolved diplomatically.

However, the document published on April 15, 2022, stated that annexed Crimea would remain under Russian control without Ukraine formally renouncing sovereignty over it. The future of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions that were under Russian control until February 24, 2022, was to be determined during negotiations between the presidents of the two countries. The document did not mention the status of other territories occupied by Russia.

According to WSJ, the negotiations continued until June 2022 and were terminated at Ukraine's initiative. Moscow previously claimed that the negotiations had already ended in April.
[ASTRA TG]

 

[CD Xbow]

The very first draft of the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine has been published. According to it, Ukraine was supposed to recognize Crimea as Russia's, but later the Russian Federation's position changed

The investigative project "System" (RFE/RL) has published the earliest known draft of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. On March 7, the peace treaty in its original form was drawn up for the third round of negotiations. The document was given to the publication by a Ukrainian source, and a Russian source confirmed its authenticity.

According to the terms of the original agreement:

• Ukraine must “recognize the independence” of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk republics, and also recognize Crimea and Sevastopol as “an integral part of Russia.”
• Ukraine must take on the costs of restoring the infrastructure of Donbass, which has been destroyed since 2014;

- Ukraine must reduce the size of the army to 50,000 people, which is 5 times less than by February 24, 2022;

- Ukraine is not allowed to join any military alliances or conclude any military agreements with other states;

• Ukraine is prohibited from “developing, producing, acquiring and deploying on its territory missile weapons of any type of basing with a firing range greater than 250 km”;
• All sanctions against Russia since 2014, including Western and Ukrainian ones, must be lifted;

- Russian should become one of the state languages in Ukraine;

- Any bans on symbols associated in states with the victory over Nazism must be abolished and no longer introduced. That is, Soviet symbols must be allowed;

- Ukraine must cease procedures for joining the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court;

In response, the Russian side promised a "ceasefire" and some "measures," but not a withdrawal of troops. At the same time, Russian representatives wanted to oblige Ukrainian troops to withdraw to permanent deployment points, and all foreign specialists from the West were to leave the country, while Russian troops, along with the National Guard, were to remain in their positions and monitor Ukraine's fulfillment of "all obligations under the agreement."

At the same time, in March 2024, The Wall Street Journal published a draft peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which was discussed after the negotiations of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which took place in Istanbul at the end of March. The document is dated April 15, 2022, and in it, Russia's position softened.

It was determined that Ukraine would have a security mechanism similar to Article 5 of NATO, according to which, as expected, the guarantor countries: Great Britain, China, Russia, USA, France, Russia, Belarus, Turkey would be obliged to defend Ukraine with military forces in the event of an attack.

However, it was not possible to agree on this point, since the wording proposed by Ukraine meant that the signatories to the treaty would be able to intervene on its behalf both collectively and individually. Russia, however, insisted on only collective intervention. That is, Russia itself, as a signatory to the treaty, could, in theory, veto the decision to defend Ukraine from its own attack.

The point on territorial integrity was also changed. As Current Time writes, Ukraine, according to the April agreement, remains within its recognized borders, including Crimea, Sevastopol and some unspecified territories to which security guarantees do not apply. The communiqué adopted in Istanbul at the end of March indicated that the status of Crimea and Sevastopol would be resolved diplomatically.

However, the document published on April 15, 2022, stated that annexed Crimea would remain under Russian control without Ukraine formally renouncing sovereignty over it. The future of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions that were under Russian control until February 24, 2022, was to be determined during negotiations between the presidents of the two countries. The document did not mention the status of other territories occupied by Russia.

According to WSJ, the negotiations continued until June 2022 and were terminated at Ukraine's initiative. Moscow previously claimed that the negotiations had already ended in April.
[ASTRA TG]

That's not a peace plan, that's capitulation.

 

[Bloods86]

I have referenced below a link to Responsible Statecraft, the magazine of the Quincy Institute, hardly a hot bed of revolutionary socialism.

In it, the article they run through information from some of the prime sources, and come to the opinion that a deal between Ukraine and Russia was on the table at Istanbul, and it was pressure from the Western leaders, notably Johnson, that were major factors in Ukraine refusing to continue.

Finally, one only needs to consider the history of Britain since 2014 in its role in arming Ukraine and training its military to understand that the perspective of British imperialism was always war against Russia.

2015: Under Operation Orbital, i Britain trained 22 000 Ukrainian troops and a further 14 000 since then at least.

2021, June: A British war ship entered waters claimed by Russia off the coast of Crimea in an incident that almost provoked direct fire between Russian and British forces

After the Ukraine war broke out in February 2022, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the UK was taking measures “to bring down the Putin regime.”

Sep 2022: in another provocation by Britain, the Russian military came close to shooting down a British spy plane near Crimea

Britain has supplied $7.8 billion in military support and $5 billion in "non-military" support to Ukraine

April 2023 : Britain became the first NATO power to deliver to Ukraine long range missiles (Storm Shadow)

intelligence documents leaked in March 2023 confirmed that UK special forces troops are operating on the ground, in the Ukrainian war zone

In fact, British special forces had been involved in the war against Russia from the start. Only two months after the invasion, in April 2022, the Times published: "British special forces are training local troops in Ukraine. Serving UK soldiers are on the ground for the first time"

A high ranking general in the British army (Robert Magowan) also confirmed that Royal Marines were conducting "discreet" operations in Ukraine in April 2022.

These were the circumstances under which Johnson made a trip to Istanbul to be present at the negotiations between Zelensky and the Putin government.

Do you really believe that Johnson didn't play a role in sabotaging them?


Link to Quncy Institute article:

Diplomacy Watch: Did the West scuttle the Istanbul talks or not?

A former official’s insider information sheds light on how peace negotiations failed in April 2022

responsiblestatecraft.org

In late March 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rebuffed suggestions from Zelenskyy that there should be Presidential level talks. Until at least the two sides were closer on key issues. Doesn't sound like Russia thought there was a deal on the table and agreeable to both sides hey?

In the coming days, representatives from both countries met in Istanbul. Turkish President Erdoğan said that Ukraine was ready to accept some of Russia's conditions, however Ukraine would not surrender Crimea, Donetsk or Luhansk. Sounds really close to a deal hey?

On April 7, Lavrov said that Ukraine had presented them with unacceptable proposals, related to the status of Crimea (which Ukraine had never been ready to concede) and the ability to hold drills with foreign countries without Russia's permission (absolutely scandalous of course, given they allegedly had agreed to renounce NATO ambitions). Sounds really close to a deal hey?

And so, with Ukraine and Russia ready to sign an agreeable deal (not!), Boris flew into town and convinced them not to sign. Yeah, right.

I'm not sure what your point is in listing British support for Ukraine. That's what an ally should do for a nation being invaded by an imperialist neighbour (I have no regard for your cherry-picked definitions, though I'm sure you'll produce another word vomit).

You refer to a "provocation" by Britain, where they were sailing near Ukrainian territory (Crimea). Am I supposed to take Russia's side here?

I'll be honest, the combined forces of NATO and other allies around the world such as South Korea, Australia, Japan etc could become directly involved in the war and fire on Russian territory, and the imperialists would still be Russia. Russia started the war unprovoked, in a land and resource grab, after invading other nations previously, despite your propaganda.

 

[IlovethePies]

Exclusive: Early Peace Plan Shows Russia's Intent To Neutralize Ukraine

RFE/RL’s Russian investigative unit, Systema, has obtained a draft treaty that Moscow proposed early in talks that began days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It would have left a truncated Ukraine deeply vulnerable, with a minuscule military and no hope of protection from the West.

www.rferl.org

RFE "Radio Liberty" you're quoting this anti communist CIA mouthpiece as a credible source??
I am embarrassed for you
and amused.

 

[IlovethePies]

In late March 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rebuffed suggestions from Zelenskyy that there should be Presidential level talks. Until at least the two sides were closer on key issues. Doesn't sound like Russia thought there was a deal on the table and agreeable to both sides hey?

In the coming days, representatives from both countries met in Istanbul. Turkish President Erdoğan said that Ukraine was ready to accept some of Russia's conditions, however Ukraine would not surrender Crimea, Donetsk or Luhansk. Sounds really close to a deal hey?

On April 7, Lavrov said that Ukraine had presented them with unacceptable proposals, related to the status of Crimea (which Ukraine had never been ready to concede) and the ability to hold drills with foreign countries without Russia's permission (absolutely scandalous of course, given they allegedly had agreed to renounce NATO ambitions). Sounds really close to a deal hey?

And so, with Ukraine and Russia ready to sign an agreeable deal (not!), Boris flew into town and convinced them not to sign. Yeah, right.

I'm not sure what your point is in listing British support for Ukraine. That's what an ally should do for a nation being invaded by an imperialist neighbour (I have no regard for your cherry-picked definitions, though I'm sure you'll produce another word vomit).

You refer to a "provocation" by Britain, where they were sailing near Ukrainian territory (Crimea). Am I supposed to take Russia's side here?

I'll be honest, the combined forces of NATO and other allies around the world such as South Korea, Australia, Japan etc could become directly involved in the war and fire on Russian territory, and the imperialists would still be Russia. Russia started the war unprovoked, in a land and resource grab, after invading other nations previously, despite your propaganda.

Where does your info come from? Radio Europe?
You are the one spreading propaganda, just too blind and obtuse to realise it.