Bluemour Discussion Thread XVII - Coniglio means Rabbit in Italian!

[HARKER]

Basic takeaway, keep working on the top end, get your injury management sorted, pray for a little luck, and the last few names on the list won't matter....

Pretty much and which is why I don't want to target players that simply can't co-exist with players we already have.
i.e. Don't take players just because they have talent.

What use would a 'gettable' 20 year old inside mid be to us?
It may look good on the resume but is that something we need when we have Setterfield, Stocker and Kennedy coming through.

There's no one size fits all List arrangement, but what's easy to work out is that a club can't have too many real quality players on the list. You just can't.

Rough exercise:
The last 10 players on the list may be development or fresh young players.
The next 10 may be players that are gap-fillers. Players that are cheap and may just get a go should the right opportunity present.
The next 10 players may be paid a little more and rotated on form, needs, for injury, etc.
The final 15 players may form the nucleus of the start squad and paid accordingly.

That's rough and can be argued, but something like that seems appropriate to me.

 

[Dadda Dave]

Shhhhh.

Department H is a top secret facility ... or was

David epic professional Teague..

 

[HARKER]

Trade value of a player is a depreciating scale, predominantly around age, although formline, needs, contract status, etc are factors in said value
Given the above, I see his value still being a mid 2nd rounder at best. Although if I was fremantle, I would be looking for more, an early 2nd rounder would still get the deal done

From the AFL website.
That's not to say they're right and you're wrong, but Freo won't let go of Hill for a pick ~30......unless there are serious underlying issues

 

[Arr0w]

View attachment 714918

From the AFL website.
That's not to say they're right and you're wrong, but Freo won't let go of Hill for a pick ~30......unless there are serious underlying issues

I doubt it will be a straight out single pick, it will be a shuffle of multiple picks, but the end result will not be a pick under 20

 

[Blue and Blue]

Shhhhh.

Department H is a top secret facility ... or was

 

[SOSforPM]

Not just a currency issue..how do we fit those players into the seniors...particularly when we have a healthy list. We have been struggling to find a player to drop these last few games as lots of players have now stepped up and starting to show very good signs. I think we desperately need a crumbing forward and probably a ruckman as back up.

A good spot to be in. Get the list overflowing with talent, create an environment where a spot in the team is hard to earn.

Then when we’re hopefully making top 4 we can offload fringe players for good picks and maintain success for an extended period of time.

 

[HARKER]

I doubt it will be a straight out single pick, it will be a shuffle of multiple picks, but the end result will not be a pick under 20

If Hill was as keen to come to Melbourne as is being reported, then there would be no shortage of suitors.
North & Saints would welcome Hill as would we. The fit is there.

Which player around that 20-30 mark in this draft, would make for a better bet than Hill?
I think we can seriously over-rate picks at times and especially later ones.

If SOS/The CFC can pull off a pick in that range for Hill, I'd be pretty thrilled.

 

[Soapy V]

I doubt it will be a straight out single pick, it will be a shuffle of multiple picks, but the end result will not be a pick under 20

That was what I suggested

 

[Matty411]

Freo letting hill go (to us) for a pick in the 30s would be delicious

EFA

 

[Dadda Dave]

I caught a glimpse of sunrise this morning re Hill said that he ain't going anywhere!
Where have we heard that before..

 

[Dominator_7]

Can’t see us getting Papley AND B.Hill without this and next year’s 1sts disappearing

 

[Tushay]

Who was it on the radio the other day suggesting that Hill was worth 2 1sts.
Talk about extremes.

Hill should be able to reel in a pick around that 10-15 for Freo though, one would think.

Agree, didn't they get him for pick c.20?

 

[Jeremias]

Because he wants to leave and once he nominates a deal will be done. Happens every year

Just as Gibbs nominated Adelaide and a deal was done at the end of 2016?

He’s contracted. Fremantle hold all the cards here.

I also said there will be other parts to it like other picks etc. Look at most of our deals under SOS, they have included multiple picks/trades. My comments were starting points. I thought that was clear

Yeah I saw that but took no notice of it, because you’re obviously referring to later pick swaps.

A second and later pick swaps still won’t get it done.

Freo might be a basket case but they’re not a charity. They don’t need to trade Hill and they won’t unless they get something good.

 

[Tushay]

If Papley and Hill come on board I found it hard to see Cunningham on the list as much as I love him as a player I’m sure clubs will ask about him.Having only Adelaide’s first pick and not much else means we need to trade not sure next years picks will be enough as well.Hope I’m wrong but I think they’ll ask the question.

B Hill would be a great addition - perfect complement to our existing mids. But I wouldn't be sacrificing Cunners. Kid has genuine upside and pace. Why sacrifice pace to add pace?

 

[myblueroan]

Just had a flash on how we can land the rabbit.

 

[Arr0w]

If Hill was as keen to come to Melbourne as is being reported, then there would be no shortage of suitors.
North & Saints would welcome Hill as would we. The fit is there.

Which player around that 20-30 mark in this draft, would make for a better bet than Hill?
I think we can seriously over-rate picks at times and especially later ones.

If SOS/The CFC can pull off a pick in that range for Hill, I'd be pretty thrilled.

You must of misread my original post, take into account Hill's time left in the system as a consideration of value. Review other trades for other contracted 26 year olds, not just the top end players, but that mid range quality

Wellingham, younger - Pick 18
Vince, similar age - Pick 23
Christensen, younger - Pick 21
Greenwood, similar age - Pick 25
Redden, younger - Pick 17
Melksham, younger - Pick 25
Seedsman, younger - Pick 32
Caddy, younger + Pick 56 for Pick 24 + Pick 64

Hill is in that range

 

[HARKER]

Agree, didn't they get him for pick c.20?

Hawthorn do play nice guys very well and accepted what Freo had, as Hill wanted to play for Freo and Freo only. hawthorn accommodated.

Question would be: Is Hill a better player now than he was when he left and don't worry about age.?
Hill will play most of the year as a 26 year old next year and likely has another 6 years left in him.
If a club prefers a 18 year old just because they're likely...possibly....have a longer career, then maybe they're not trusting where they are at all.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Shhhhh.

Department H is a top secret facility ... or was

Not a patch on these guys

 

[Jeremias]

Trade value of a player is a depreciating scale, predominantly around age, although formline, needs, contract status, etc are factors in said value

Contract is the big one here.

He’s an important player for the Dockers and he’s contracted for a further two years.

They’re not actively selling him.

When Hill was traded from the Hawks, he still had a year to run on his contract. While his possession count has increased, his goal kicking output has reduced, along with his disposal efficiency (the latter probably has more to do, with the different gameplans).Three years on and turning 27 next year, that trade value scale really kicks in (how much time does he have left in the game, see Gibbs as somewhat of a reference)

Hill left Hawthorn to go home.

Given they are an ultra professional and successful club - in which he was a factor - no doubt they were sympathetic to his situation and allowed easy passage.

Fremantle are not in the same situation, Hill is not leaving for the same reason, and he’s not only a better player now, but more important to them than he was to Hawthorn.

They’re not letting him go easy.

Given the above, I see his value still being a mid 2nd rounder at best. Although if I was fremantle, I would be looking for more, an early 2nd rounder would still get the deal done

I don’t see any way a 2nd round pick is the nucleus for a deal there, given all of the above.

I’m not sure they’re picking up the phone for anything less than a first round pick.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Can’t see us getting Papley AND B.Hill without this and next year’s 1sts disappearing

Hmmm doubt it

 

[HARKER]

You must of misread my original post, take into account Hill's time left in the system as a consideration of value. Review other trades for other contracted 26 year olds, not just the top end players, but that mid range quality

Wellingham, younger - Pick 18
Vince, similar age - Pick 23
Christensen, younger - Pick 21
Greenwood, similar age - Pick 25
Redden, younger - Pick 17
Melksham, younger - Pick 25
Seedsman, younger - Pick 32
Caddy, younger + Pick 56 for Pick 24 + Pick 64

Hill is in that range

Thanks for the effort but the real question is - Does Hill make for the better and more valuable player?

Would Hill make it into our starting 22 and make us a better team?
I think we get stuck on numbers more so than for a holistic approach.

Let's for instance say that we could get Brodie for the same currency as Hill. Which player do we need more.
I'm not suggesting to pay overs, but if you really want someone and they make for the perfect fit, just pay for them. Hawthorn did.

I wouldn't worry about his age either and as I've just put forward after your post - Hill has another 6+ years in him.
Do we trust ourselves to be competitive across that time, would Hill help, or do we forsake needs just to roll over more future 'talent'

 

[Arr0w]

Contract is the big one here.

He’s an important player for the Dockers and he’s contracted for a further two years.

They’re not actively selling him.



Hill left Hawthorn to go home.

Given they are an ultra professional and successful club - in which he was a factor - no doubt they were sympathetic to his situation and allowed easy passage.

Fremantle are not in the same situation, Hill is not leaving for the same reason, and he’s not only a better player now, but more important to them than he was to Hawthorn.

They’re not letting him go easy.



I don’t see any way a 2nd round pick is the nucleus for a deal there, given all of the above.

I’m not sure they’re picking up the phone for anything less than a first round pick.

All valid considerations. It will be an interesting one to watch. Personally if I am the Docker, I would hold firm unless I get overs

 

[HARKER]

All valid considerations. It will be an interesting one to watch. Personally if I am the Docker, I would hold firm unless I get overs

Absolutely. Fremantle aren't a Hawthorn.
I'd love you to be right and Fremantle relent to us for a pick around the 25 mark.

Anyway, plenty to play out but we're sure to start hearing a lot more in coming weeks, as teams drop out for finals contention.

Would love Hill.
Would be thrilled with Papley

Would be so/so with Martin
Would be pissed should we hand over our first for Brodie because he played well against us.

 

[Arr0w]

Thanks for the effort but the real question is - Does Hill make for the better and more valuable player?

Would Hill make it into our starting 22 and make us a better team?
I think we get stuck on numbers more so than for a holistic approach.

Let's for instance say that we could get Brodie for the same currency as Hill. Which player do we need more.
I'm not suggesting to pay overs, but if you really want someone and they make for the perfect fit, just pay for them. Hawthorn did.

I wouldn't worry about his age either and as I've just put forward after your post - Hill has another 6+ years in him.
Do we trust ourselves to be competitive across that time, would Hill help, or do we forsake needs just to roll over more future 'talent'

Forget what his worth to us or any other team, just purely a player's value when compared to similar quality players.

As for 6 years, that is extreme. Similar views were held regarding Gibbs and others, playing beyond 30 is rare for his type of player

 

[Arr0w]

Absolutely. Fremantle aren't a Hawthorn.
I'd love you to be right and Fremantle relent to us for a pick around the 25 mark.

Anyway, plenty to play out but we're sure to start hearing a lot more in coming weeks, as teams drop out for finals contention.

Harks, I think I am measured when it comes to trade worth of a player whether it is Carlton related or not.

I stated that Gibbs was worth a mid to late 1st and 2nd and that McGovern was worth a total value in the 13-17 range.

I wouldn't play a midish 1st rounder for Hill