Rumour Bluemour Discussion thread

[My name geoff]

So lets trade a KP Forward that's rated as being better than Patty McCartin and Tom Boyd (who the Dogs recently got by giving up their All Australian Captain and a top 5 pick) for an undersized defender and an outside mid.

SOLD

That's pure Carlton right there.

The two players you mention have proven nothing

 

[Jimmae]

Have to agree with others here FootyTradePro: you're using one season of form to predict the rest of his career. He'll need to lift more than his work rate to continue the pattern.

I incorrectly remembered which pick you assigned Pendlebury, my apolgogies.

 

[TBellicious]

Apparently Carlisle requests St. Kilda

 

[FootyTradePro]

Have to agree with others here: your using one season of form to predict the rest of his career. He'll need to lift more than his work rate to continue the pattern.

That is incorrect, I am using his output through his entire career and comparing it to every other player that has played the same number of years.

Based on thousands of players, those that get to Bell's level of performance after four years go on to produce on average the output of the average number 9 pick.

To give another perspective.

Treloar is currently valued as a pick 1, also after four years of his career (been valued at pick one every year of his career so far).

The value of pick one is approx twice as much as pick nine.

Therefore, Treloar is expected to produce twice as much as Tom Bell over the rest of his career.

 

[feffs93]

I guess the idea being they get Schache, we get Weitering, Parish and Francis???

2,3,4, geelongs pick for Hendo, maybe the pick for Yarran and 19 = 6 top 20 picks but fantasy trading is useless now.

That sounds delicious!
Not completely sold on Schache tbh

 

[Juddrockz]

Apparently Carlisle requests St. Kilda

Says who?

 

[LanceRomance]

Says who?

Probably some Essendon supporter hoping for St Ks first round pick

 

[rog1995]

Carlton will get him. Mark Stevens says a four year deal is on the table.

 

[andrew_]

According to a friend of Sav Rocca
Treloar and Carlise are apparently done deals

 

[rp84]

View attachment 171177

Shame. Shame. Shame.

 

[Blue Razor]

View attachment 171177

but to be fair did not say to Carlton just done deals.

 

[James_Blues]

Treloar has nominated Collingwood

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...s-to-collingwood/story-fni5f7qp-1227518270925

 

[CrippsyCream]

People who don't understand stats itt.

 

[Gw2_James]

Probably some Essendon supporter hoping for St Ks first round pick

Yeah I was reading the * forums, some are expecting st kildas first rounder, while others are demanding it lol. They do not want him to go to carlton, in fact they have stated they would be happy to let him to anyone but Carlton, **** carltank etc etc.

I say screw them all, take this Carlisle bloke in the psd just to purely piss them off lol.

 

[Aphrodite]

Apparently Carlisle requests St. Kilda

Where did you hear that?

 

[No1Suspect]

I really am struggling to believe how the f'n filth is now such a desired place to be ffs....

Eddies after football perks must be bloody good....

 

[Jimmae]

That is incorrect, I am using his output through his entire career and comparing it to every other player that has played the same number of years.

Historical analysis is historically not that good when a change in capital processes occur. I've already mentioned that I think Champion Data is a poor analogue to actual on-field performance, particularly in regards to decision making, with note to decision making and execution under pressure.

Suffice to say that anything a scout can perceive about a player can be recorded as data, it's simply a matter of having a statistic defined and being prepared to collect said statistics. Champion Data falls a long, long, long way short of what's possible today, and drastically short of what could be.

 

[LanceRomance]

I really am struggling to believe how the f'n filth is now such a desired place to be ffs....

Eddies after football perks must be bloody good....

It is professionally run... unlike our mob it seems

 

[thylacine60]

Where did you hear that?

 

[Beer n Skittles]

That is incorrect, I am using his output through his entire career and comparing it to every other player that has played the same number of years.

Based on thousands of players, those that get to Bell's level of performance after four years go on to produce on average the output of the average number 9 pick.

To give another perspective.

Treloar is currently valued as a pick 1, also after four years of his career (been valued at pick one every year of his career so far).

The value of pick one is approx twice as much as pick nine.

Therefore, Treloar is expected to produce twice as much as Tom Bell over the rest of his career.

It's an interesting system, just to clarify you're saying Bell's career so far most closely matches some of those higher trajectories on your graph? I know you've stated previously that mature age players tend to be overrated on your system, I assume that's because they're generally physically ready to go & so progress comparatively well at the start of their careers. I'd suggest Bell is just an example of this in the extreme because he's big & can run all day.

 

[TBellicious]

Where did you hear that?

I don't know....
Got told by someone so it is probably bullshit

 

[thylacine60]

The two players you mention have proven nothing

But nothing is everything!

 

[LanceRomance]

I don't know....
Got told by someone so it is probably bullshit

 

[thylacine60]

I don't know....
Got told by someone so it is probably bullshit

Deadset must shortlist for POTY.

 

[Cringle]

Generally I'm not a fan of players ditching their clubs and going into the preseason draft.

But in this scenario Carlilse doesn't owe * anything.