Rumour Bluemour Discussion thread

[gandaal]

So lets trade a KP Forward that's rated as being better than Patty McCartin and Tom Boyd (who the Dogs recently got by giving up their All Australian Captain and a top 5 pick) for an undersized defender and an outside mid.

SOLD

That's pure Carlton right there.

 

[1981]

Watch Ess RE Carlisle continue to pretend that the rest of the world, or Australia at least, is completely stupid - they'll pretend the WADA cloud doesn't exist and therefore there is no risk to a rival club in trading for Carlisle.

 

[1981]

So lets trade a KP Forward that's rated as being better than Patty McCartin and Tom Boyd (who the Dogs recently got by giving up their All Australian Captain and a top 5 pick) for an undersized defender and an outside mid.

SOLD

That's pure Carlton right there.

Who is rating Schache that highly?
Where has that been written? By whom?
If anything there is a question mark over him because he is ruckman height. Dermott Brereton raised this a couple weeks ago, saying he will lose agility as he bulks up and this could affect his game/performance in the future.
Schache kicked a lot of goals at the carnival and is a good kick, but he wouldn't be the first kid to play well at the carnival then perhaps play less well in the future at AFL level.

 

[Aphrodite]

To have picks 2,3 and 4.

Because then we'll have 2,3 and 4, pretty simple stuff

I guess the idea being they get Schache, we get Weitering, Parish and Francis???

2,3,4, geelongs pick for Hendo, maybe the pick for Yarran and 19 = 6 top 20 picks but fantasy trading is useless now.

Why wouldn't we?

Sorry guys misread crazybear's post.

I see where you are coming from but if that was to happen, what's stopping Brisbane taking Weitering with pick 1 if that is who we are really after.

Wouldn't put it past them at all but can't see it happening.

 

[ferrisb]

For the record, 1 & 12 would be equal to 3 & 4 (using AFL draft values).

If we ended up with ~14 for Yazz/Menzel, I would probably do that deal.

So we switch 1, 2 & 14 for 2, 3 & 4.

Technically we get the slightly better end of the deal - pick value wise - if our swap is >12. But also I think I'd like 3 super high picks (but not #1) than two super high (incl #1) and one quite high.

Of course names are important, not just numbers. Would depend how we rate Schache, Francis, Parish, Curnow, picks in 10-15 range etc.

 

[gandaal]

Who is rating Schache that highly?
Where has that been written? By whom?
If anything there is a question mark over him because he is ruckman height. Dermott Brereton raised this a couple weeks ago, saying he will lose agility as he bulks up and this could affect his game/performance in the future.
Schache kicked a lot of goals at the carnival and is a good kick, but he wouldn't be the first kid to play well at the carnival then perhaps play less well in the future at AFL level.

Here Knightmare was asked how he compares with recent top drafted KPFs:

On talent I'd say arguably better rounded than the lot of them at the same stage (though Hogan in the VFL at that time is harder to gauge so definitely). On performance in that same conversation and I'd say during the u18 championships certainly the most impressive and best performed of that group, but through the TAC Cup much the same as those others and possibly on performance slightly below what Boyd and Patton were offering but similar to Daniher and McCartin.

Who actually becomes the best of these? Probably Hogan with the way he is playing great footy this season. Schache after Hogan has that opportunity to certainly compete for that number two spot of those specific players you mentioned as one who belongs in that conversation.

And again:

If you ask me today. And I'll add Tom Lynch (GC) to that list as someone else top of mind I rate above several you listed and I'll class them as the expansion era forwards.

1. Cameron
2. Hogan
3. Schache
4. Daniher
5. T.Lynch (GC)
6. Boyd
7. Patton
8. McCartin
9. McCarthy
10. Moore

Asked to rank the three directly:

Schache, Boyd, McCartin.

AFL talent manager Kevin Sheehan said of Schache: “He is the full package,”

“He is an imposing size, he is a terrific athlete, his repeat efforts are super, he takes the ball at the highest point and he is so hard to stop on a lead.

“He is as good a kick as we have had technically in the under-age program, outside 50m or from 25m out.


“He only trained one night a week at the Bushrangers so he has a fantastic upside.

“He is an outstanding prosect and a great composed young man so he hasn’t put a foot wrong all year.”

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...-no-1-draft-pick/story-fni5f5nx-1227483653606

Asked to compare Schache and McCartin:

Better, in my eyes.

McCartin was good but to me he was never a safe as houses type - though the least risky of last year's KPFs. As a player he was dominant in one dimension but limited in others, he was the kind of player you think might be a top 5-10 KPF in the comp but not the best, perhaps.

Schache I'm more confident in making the grade and not busting but also in having a higher peak. He's got more strings to his bow, he's taller, he's fitter, he's a better set shot, he's a better pack mark and he's slightly better below the knees. McCartin is better one on one and has better leading patterns.

 

[bludrew79]

Lets just do what we can to get pick 14....

The best player seems to go with that pick...

Or at least the player we seem to need

 

[Beer n Skittles]

So lets trade a KP Forward that's rated as being better than Patty McCartin and Tom Boyd (who the Dogs recently got by giving up their All Australian Captain and a top 5 pick) for an undersized defender and an outside mid.

SOLD

That's pure Carlton right there.

Lol

Here Knightmare was asked how he compares with recent top drafted KPFs:


And again:


Asked to rank the three directly:



http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...-no-1-draft-pick/story-fni5f5nx-1227483653606

I can't be bothered going further.

Lol

 

[Dramoth]

To have picks 2,3 and 4.

And why would Brisvegas do that?

This isn't crazy Vossy remember...

 

[Jimmae]

It tells me we over rate draft picks shockingly.
A proven afl player is worth more than an unknown draft pick.
Imo

Using Champion Data, apparently Pendlebury @ 27 is worth pick 7, so I'm not sure a model is that sound if it finishes up with Bell being valued that highly despite his flaws. AFAIK, Champion Data doesn't really determine much in the way of complexity when it comes to disposals under pressure, targets hit that are under pressure, tackles missed or broken, etc.

That kind of stuff would see Pendlebury's value go up further than Bell's. You'd also need to consider the explosion of all this stuff in recruitment, and how medieval the process was prior, and thus any valuing of picks that doesn't severely punish old historical data (i.e. pre-2008 if we're being serious).

All of that said, the AFL as an industry has actually moved in the opposite direction to your way of thinking, and it rightly should. Draft picks were severely undervalued, even until recently.

 

[Blue and Silver]

So lets trade a KP Forward that's rated as being better than Patty McCartin and Tom Boyd (who the Dogs recently got by giving up their All Australian Captain and a top 5 pick) for an undersized defender and an outside mid.

SOLD

That's pure Carlton right there.

EDIT: Just saw above post.

Is he? Mind pointing me where?

Reports I have read seem to indicate he has dominated against not Collins/Weitering but has no stand out athleticism or physical dominance.

Probably a few years away

 

[In Judd we trust]

Treloar officially requested trade. Still no nomination. Giants say will do what's best for them. We could easily satisfy them over all others even without giving up 1 and 2. Henderson and yarran pick should be enough . If not throw in a player.


EDIT: don't worry seems to have nominated the filth

 

[FootyTradePro]

If we were end up with picks 1 and 2 and Brisbane picks 3 and 4 could there be a possibility that we trade 1 for picks 3 & 4?

In terms of turning one pick into two picks these are the combinations of two picks that pick 1 is worth.

Pick 1 =

10 12
9 13
8 15
7 17
6 20
5 23
4 29
3 39
2 58

 

[Blue Razor]

Treloar officially requested trade. Still no nomination. Giants say will do what's best for them. We could easily satisfy them over all others even without giving up 1 and 2. Henderson and yarran pick should be enough . If not throw in a player.


EDIT: don't worry seems to have nominated the filth

Has been made official from his manager just now.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...s-to-collingwood/story-fni5f7qp-1227518270925

 

[HBF]

Treloar is Collingwood bound for sure. Just a matter of time.

 

[Blue Razor]

Its time to Nick Stevens Collingwood and GWS. Give Essendon 2nd round pick for Carlisle. Muhahaha

 

[FootyTradePro]

Using Champion Data, apparently Pendlebury @ 27 is worth pick 7, so I'm not sure a model is that sound if it finishes up with Bell being valued that highly despite his flaws. AFAIK, Champion Data doesn't really determine much in the way of complexity when it comes to disposals under pressure, targets hit that are under pressure, tackles missed or broken, etc.

That kind of stuff would see Pendlebury's value go up further than Bell's. You'd also need to consider the explosion of all this stuff in recruitment, and how medieval the process was prior, and thus any valuing of picks that doesn't severely punish old historical data (i.e. pre-2008 if we're being serious).

All of that said, the AFL as an industry has actually moved in the opposite direction to your way of thinking, and it rightly should. Draft picks were severely undervalued, even until recently.

I have Pendlebury as rated at pick 11 at the end of 2015.

Where do you get the pick 7 estimate from? Do champion data give pick values for players?

I had him as worth pick 7 at end of 2014. Once players get to a certain age their value starts to drop off as the usual pattern for players is for their form to drop off quickly in their last 2 or 3 years (there are exception of course, but we are talking averages here).

In terms of the data, I think it is good enough. Once disposals start getting more complex, they are more subjective, one man's under pressure is another man's in the clear. The whole point is ranking and comparison across all players using an even playing field, it is not perfect but the simple stats suffice for this purpose.

This is a graph that will appear on my upcoming website which shows how performance varies across careers according to how long each career is.

I love this graph, it shows there is a real art to when clubs should be offloading players to maximise future returns.

 

[Matty411]

That's where you lose me FTP. To suggest Bell is worth more than Pendlebury is farcical and makes a joke of your system.

 

[1981]

I don't think we should worry about AFL giving Bris a PP, all it takes is for CFC to show the AFL the ladder and the fact we have players leaving in droves too and Bris recently smashed us ...do I need to go on?

 

[1981]

So nightmare is a proven judge of talent?? Remember also Kev Sheehan is as good as a spokesperson for the AFL. He is rarely negative of young talent.

Schache as someone mentioned gets beat by Weitering and Collins, hardly a world beater then is he??'

 

[Aphrodite]

'Aspiring journos'

 

[Aphrodite]

Its time to Nick Stevens Collingwood and GWS. Give Essendon 2nd round pick for Carlisle. Muhahaha

Why give them anything!

 

[FootyTradePro]

That's where you lose me FTP. To suggest Bell is worth more than Pendlebury is farcical and makes a joke of your system.

Bell is four years into his career and has improved every year. This year was very good, he will likely be top three in our best and fairest. He has a long career ahead.

On average players who have done what Bell has done go on to produce more for the remaining years of their career than a player 10 years into their career like Pendlebury. Not by much mind you but they do.

If it helps Pendlebury was ranked as a pick 2 at the same time in his career as Bell.

8 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 7 11

I know this will not change your mind but I am just using the numbers comparing thousands of players against each other. I do not pretend that these numbers are nothing more than a very handy baseline. But they are an objective baseline. Which is important. Because this objective baseline can be used as a starting point to give subjective valuations.

 

[Dramoth]

Why give them anything!

because we only have 1 first round PSD pick

 

[Blue Razor]

Why give them anything!

Only one PSD pick, we low ball Essendon for Carlisle (threat of PSD) while GWS and Collingwood fight, comes end of trade week and Treloer has not been traded goes straight to PSD ie Nick Stevens.