Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[Michael Jezz]

1. Austin was aware that JUH and Campbell bids would move 8 to 10.

2. Yes some might have good careers. But you can’t ignore the 120+ elite level games that Saad will have given us.

3. I don’t understand this point. Out of the 50+ players drafted from #10 onwards, just Holmes and Gulden would be preferred to Saad. That is a 4% hit. You say ‘we don’t use hindsight’ - I say, Austin believed the 2020 draft was too risky and a known product in Saad was the better option. He was right.

4 & 5. Again, I’m not understanding. Are you saying that what happens after the trade is irrelevant? Lachie Neale was traded for 6 & 19 before he made an all-australian side. He is now a dual Brownlow medalist and premiership captain. Did Brisbane overpay?

Therefore, don't take Houston because this draft is a known Qty and one of the best according to Austin

 

[DangerousD]

Overpaid on Saad? 10 for an All-Australian level defender in a COVID-impacted draft seems a good price to me.

Which of these players (drafted 10-18) would you swap for Saad?

Zach Reid
Luke Pedlar
Tanner Bruhn
Tom Powell
Heath Chapman
Connor Stone
Lachie Jones
Ollie Henry
Ryan Angwin

You are using hindsight to determine if we overpaid or not, I think it’s more simple.

At the time did I think we overpaid? Yes

Do I think we could have got Saad cheaper? Yes

How Saad has played since and the quality of the draftees around the pick we traded aren’t relevant.

I apply the same logic to the Cerra trade.

 

[DangerousD]

So George and Nicky N both finish in the top 5 of our B&F..... for the combined princely sum of a 4th round pick.

Swans know how to instil professionalism to their players from day 1 of arriving......so why wouldn't we be interested in Jacob Konstanty? He hasn't been able to break into their best 22, but we know exactly the type of player we're getting....

Yes, a player who averages 10 possessions and 1 goal per game at VFL level and couldn’t get a single game in a side struck with injuries.

Comparing him to Hewett and Newman is weird

 

[CCurnow3votes]

I am a bit concerned we've traded away too many picks over the past couple of years and getting Houston will exacerbate that, setting us up for failure in the medium term because of lack of renewal on our list. It's betting the farm on immediate success but the consequence could be bottoming out hard when Tassie hits the scene and the draft is (again) terribly compromised.

It’s a worthy concern.

The message at very least coming out of the club aligns with your concern.

Our issue is we have a list trying to win a premiership in the next couple of years with a few holes to fill.

I would expect they are trying to balance both needs - trying to negotiate for GC’s pick 13.

We’ve done pretty well bringing in “role players” like Newman & Acres -along side mid-depth in Hewett, Cerra & Elijah.

We still have our first this/next year.

It puts us in a strong position, in our control - take 12 to the strong draft.

If we can bring in another first & try to negotiate Houston, all good. If not, we go the draft with 12 & 13 - still a great result!

Houston is a sugar hit, does he make us better also - yes he does. He facilitates better speed of ball movement & transition efficiency. Less turnovers, better looks up forward.

Cowan Weitering Newman
Houston McGovern Saad
(Haines/Boyd/Cincotta/Wilson)

If we can’t pull off 13 from GC - it unlocks a potent HB line & we keep at least TY’s first in the draft.

 

[DangerousD]

I agree that Austin has been underwhelming. I think we overpaid on Saad, and Cerra wasn't required, especially with Hewett brought in.

The decisions this year might be the correct ones, but possibly they are being made to correct the errors of previous years.

Time will tell.

Not just over paying with Saad and Cerra, I think he’s overpaid with Durdin, Young, Williams, Pitto and Fantasia, then I even question the $$$ and length given especially to Harry and to an extent Charlie.

In relation to Harry and Charlie there’s every chance that as the cap goes up, the pay lols better and better but according to most here, their deals go up in line with the cap.

Before anyone jumps on, you can over pay with picks, with $$$$ or with years and I think there’s enough of a trend to suggest he’s too soft at the trade table and too loose with $$$ and years when negotiating deals.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Cerra is a very different midfielder to Hewett. Cerra I still think was a necessary pick up - critical for us that we get him fit for 25'. Big reason why our midfield worked so well in 23'

Agree. Plus easy to say we didn't need both he and Hewett in hindsight.

Hewett was a tagger. Im sure we had high hopes but he has blown them out of the water in terms of becoming a 30+ touch mid.

Cerra was one of the highest rated young mids in the comp and all ours (bar walsh) were looking like busts. We really had to invest in this area even if ideally one would have more speed.

Even Kennedy at that time despite resurrecting his career hadn't done much.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Or maybe Charlie and Harry would get in way of Membrey. Membrey is a solid reliable forward.

That's a bit like saying that John Lennon and Paul McCartney would get in the way of Ringo Starr in the Beatles.

 

[Arr0w]

I think Membrey could add a different layer, but for me, not sure it would be a focus at this stage considering our needs

 

[Blue__Balls]

I know that. I'm explaining the back and forth that would happen between them. You are explaining the outcome.

You're making up a back and forth without any actual credibility on how the conversation would go. Not your fault, we all do it cause we've got no idea.

That being said, I'd personally feel pretty comfortable saying that Port won't be using what we paid for Saad 4 years ago. It was a completely different time, with a different draft cohort, different clubs involved with different priorities. The value of Pick 10, for example, changes every year based on which kid(s) will be available at that pick and how the club who owns the pick rates them vs. others.

2020 - Essendon were embarking on a mini rebuild of sorts, wanted early draft picks. Carlton were looking for a player who could help elevate them from a stagnant mid/low table to a more dynamic team pushing for finals. They valued picks, we didn't. Furthermore, the 2020 draft was impacted by Covid, and the credentials of even the top 20 players was sketchy at best.

2024 - Port are a contending side who want to try and secure a flag while their window is open. They don't want to lose a top 5-ish player from their list, and if they do it needs to be a "too good to be true" deal. Carlton are a contending side who have neglected the top of the draft for a few years while bringing in mature players, and have now identified a need to bring in some youth to balance the profile of the list. They don't want picks, they don't want to lose Houston. We want picks, we're happy to take Houston provided it doesn't prevent us achieving our primary objective.The draft is also considered very even this year, with players from about 8-30 being considered very hard to rank.

This "conversation" between the clubs is barely that. They demand overs, we tell them we have other priorities and won't pay more than X. They see the opportunity to play tough guy via the media and leak the stuff about Carlton being arrogant and delusional. Nobody cares, cause the news cycle will move on from it within a couple of weeks anyway.

 

[skadoosh]

Is BF super slow to load pages for anyone else this morning?

 

[BringFevBack2021]

If Pies lose Noble and Richards for Houston that is a huge loss

Noble plays a similar role at a lesser level and Joe Richards is the only young midfielder they’ve blooded that has so much as given a yelp

 

[Blue and Silver]

Therefore, don't take Houston because this draft is a known Qty and one of the best according to Austin

A) No draft is a known quantity.

B) the top 10 is mostly high floor guys, O'Sullivan, Jagga, Langford, Draper etc.

By pick 12/13 we are into the high ceiling/lower floor guys, Berry, Trainor, Tauru, Hotton etc.

You could argue that the highest floor guy that might get there is Travaglia who combines a lovely athletic and skill package, but I think might be snapped up before us.

On Pixel 7a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Yubby]

Is BF super slow to load pages for anyone else this morning?

Yes

 

[Banga19]

I'm pretty comfortable with Austin's approach here, reading between lines.

F1 + F2 for 13 seems to be the best offer GC so far. If we get 13 and offer it plus steak knives for Houston, that's reasonable for a known quality player, age less of a concern for me as we are in the premiership hunt and we would also bring in a first round pick in a strong draft.

If Port don't accept, we take 2 top 15 picks. If Gold Coast don't accept then we probably look elsewhere to bring a 2025 pick forward to this year's draft.

 

[woof39]

I am glad the club will end this trade period with at least 1 first round pick. It's always important to have a good balance of recruiting experience but ensuring the wheel of youth keeps turning.

I wonder why they are so willing to give up picks in next year's draft though? Is it seen as a weaker draft?

 

[Graffy4242]

Is BF super slow to load pages for anyone else this morning?

y...............

e...............


s................

 

[Sector 7G]

If Pies lose Noble and Richards for Houston that is a huge loss

Noble plays a similar role at a lesser level and Joe Richards is the only young midfielder they’ve blooded that has so much as given a yelp

It would be a massive win for the Pies. Noble has 1 top 10 finish in the Pies B&F (9th) and was not best 23 in 2023.

Richards is soon to be 25 played 9 games and kicked 6 goals as a forward.

Massive win. Always get GCS in any deal. Perennial losers at the trade table.

 

[I bleed Blue]

Is BF super slow to load pages for anyone else this morning?

Bigfooty crashing after Bont has requested a trade to Carlton

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Twas tongue in cheek but Membrey would allow flexibility in our forward line. Charles could play further afield when necessary and we wouldn't be stretched. Durable goal kicker. Wouldn't need to play every game. He's certainly not finished.

That's a bit like saying that John Lennon and Paul McCartney would get in the way of Ringo Starr in the Beatle

 

[Juddrockz]

Leppisch saying "they're confident"on getting Dan Houston

5

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

.
Interesting.

 

[skadoosh]

 

[carlton_99]

F1 + Noble for 13, 23 and 29 is a horrible deal for the Suns.

 

[carlton_99]

Nick Austin said we won't be pursuing Membrey

 

[jooce8891]

LFG

 

[Rustica]

Have to get that GC pick..