Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[bringdoullback]

I still can’t believe that Shaun Mannagh managed to go un drafted to 26, all clubs with picks overlooked him in the MSD last year, only for Geelong to pick him up in the 2nd round. Looked dangerous again tonight, there’s types are out there if you’re good enough to know what you’re looking at.

He looks terrific. Love how he is always on the move around stoppages.

Agreed with above, however also a credit to him.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Walsh as quick as Butters or Rozee... wowzer. Not even on fast forward.

this year he wasn't....

 

[Aphrodite]

SDK better be bloody coming, Geelong owe me - 6 leg multi & the one leg I miss was Geelong win

Oh man I made a nice bit on the Lions tonight … Geelong really? I mean we thrashed them by 11 goals how good can they be lol

Lij cost me last week, had a 17 leg same game multi $235 odds, only leg that didn't get up was lij finished on 68 fantasy points and needed 70, let's just say it's taken me a week to get over it.

6 leg same game multi- thought I was home when Danger got his goal - $25 bonus bet for $180 collect

Thought I had it when lij had that shot at goal late, took him to 68 needed 70. $8 17 leg same game for over $1800 win. Still hurts.

Punting Board is way ...


Thanks all.

Punting Board

Tips, betting strategies, AFL betting, horse racing, greyhound betting and so on.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[WalshYouLegend]

If our city is fortified, we’ll be quicker in the middle and a strong defence will rocket us forward, and in the nick of time.

Guided by the son of a farmer, (a sleeping giant) and strengthened by an island in the river (a ‘stolen ) we’ll manage to claim that elusive flag!



View attachment 2116841

Nick Haynes is the sleeping giant.

I think Petracca is the stolen waft of air.

 

[TENACIOUS]

When TDK is rucking, and rucking well, our midfield looks as quick as any....

Remember we got nothing from Cerra this year (2023 top 5 b & f and our 2nd best mid most of the year).

Ditto, Walshy - was a mile off his best in 2024.

Remember he was the best in the finals' series in '23 - of all clubs.

When he's fit, he's quick. As quick as Butters or Rozee.

That's a lot of serious output missing from the engine room? Two A graders essentially.

Young Lord looks very likely too. And offers Newcombe like burst too.

I think Pitto ain't up to being #1 ruck - if he can't dominate at CBBs, he's entirely useless around the ground.

Would be offering him around, for sure....

Cerra isn’t an A grader, no where near the league’s top players…

As you said both Cerra and Walsh were fit and firing in 2023 and got us to 5th (10 points behind 4th spot)…

Walsh has had an elite year on numbers, though his kicking has dropped 12%..

Is Walsh improving his kicking and Cerra playing more games really going to move the needle from 8th to Premiership?

Yes, injuries were a cruel factor, but our core group still played the majority of the season together… Plus every team has injuries…

Makes me think of further questions, it can’t just be injuries..

1. Our top talent have won many awards, B&F’s, AA’s, Coleman’s, MVP, Brownlow, Best in Finals & Coaches award.. Are our top talent brilliant individually, but struggle as a team?
2. Is our second tier of players not good enough?
3. Is our depth not good enough?
4. Is Voss and Co, not good enough, tactically and game plan wise?
5. Is our list Philosophy, not good enough?

I’m not in the group we need more stars.. But I really hoped we were going to address a small forward or two, a KPD to work with Weitering and a midfielder with pace, while going to the draft…

Doesn’t look like we’re going to do any of this, except hit the draft…

Instead of telling Kennedy and Owies to explore their options, those that actually kick goals… Why aren’t we telling Motlop, Durdin, Fantasia the same thing…

 

[The Bighouse]

I'm probably just iterating what many of us have already posted, but I'd only be okay with getting Houston if it didn't compromise our 1st round pick this year.

Even splitting the pick to give us more draft capital is risky. Pommie suggested we could split pick 11 for say picks 20 and 21 - use pick 20 and a future 1st for Houston, leaving us with pick 21. Potentially, it could then leave us open to a bid on Ben before pick 21, so we're forced to burn that pick on matching the bid and left without a 1st rounder.

I'm much more comfortable in bringing in young talent, especially with the spectre of Tassie looming very soon. High draft picks are more valuable now than in a few years time with the compromised drafts.

Which is why I'd be more than happy to trade out Owies if we can use the pick for a 19yo Konstanty who's on the improve at state league level. And under no circumstances trade out pick 11, so we can bring in some high level talented kid like a Berry or Lyndsay, rather than a more speculative pick lower down the order like we've done in recent years.

I'm fine bringing in 'older' role players with 3rd and 4th round picks like Garcia or Rosas, or even through FA like Haynes or Taylor - but we have to keep bringing in youth - not negotiable.

My wishlist:

• Houston (only if the price is right)
• Konstanty (Owies trade pick)
• Garcia/Rosas (f3)
• Haynes (FA)
• Berry/Lyndsay (first round)
• Campo's (FS)
• McCartin (late pick)
• McMahon/White (rookie)
• Duffy (cat B)

10 changes. 4 more to be made (5 + Owies)…

 

[Campoeasy]

I reckon he could become a future captain. He'll come out of his shell and I'd imagine set high standards for uncompromising, tough football. I agree wholeheartedly. My fave of our young players.

He's very much Cripps at the same age personality wise, just a shy young kid but watch him turn into an absolute beast. Reminds me a lot of Cripps in that way

 

[Inspector Closseau]

10 changes. 4 more to be made (5 + Owies)…

My Wishlist:

1/. Petracca for any 2 players except the untouchables. Can be Silvagni, Kemp or even a Cerra.

2/. Pick 11 and F1 for De Konning.

Houston is not a primary need and Petracca can help the void in the Forward line and others like Cotterell and Elijah will have to step up.

 

[GoBlues!]

I’m iííúu

Instead of telling Kennedy and Owies to explore their options, those that actually kick goals… Why aren’t we telling Motlop, Durdin, Fantasia the same thing…

What impact did Motlop, Durdin and Fantasia have this year… three fifths of fa.

Losing Kennedy and Owies will hurt our goal scoring, especially if the above 3 don’t step up next year.

 

[TENACIOUS]

I’m iííúu

What impact did Motlop, Durdin and Fantasia have this year… three fifths of fa.

Losing Kennedy and Owies will hurt our goal scoring, especially if the above 3 don’t step up next year.

That’s why I said why aren’t they told to go explore their options

 

[AndyLucimitis]

I reckon he could become a future captain. He'll come out of his shell and I'd imagine set high standards for uncompromising, tough football. I agree wholeheartedly. My fave of our young players.

A modern day Andrew McKay.

 

[Beyond Blue]

Yet, when we had a decent list of fit players to choose from we flogged the Cats.

Our best is good enough, outside of Bailey Smith I don’t think we need to do too much except get a couple of nippy, creative ball users in the draft.

Then just another KPD type, would certainly take Trainor at 11 if he fell there which I doubt he will, SDK is an absolute pipedream and not going to happen.
Willing to keep using Young as second fiddle and train up JSOS over the summer, his best traits are much better suited to a backman
If we get more speed in the middle we can disrupt the oppo much better on their ball movement than this year which makes it easier to defend for the undersized like Kemp and McGovern


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Yes we did but we also lost to the Crows, Pies (first time), Giants and Bulldogs when we fielded decent teams. As great a win as it was I do think we need to move past pointing to that win as evidence we are the real deal. The performance was the exception rather than the rule. I’m not sure we have the players and coaches to get enough wins like that to be a real contender.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Walsh as quick as Butters or Rozee... wowzer. Not even on fast forward.

is there any word on the status of Walsh's back and if any post season surgery or treatment ??

 

[Proud 2 be Blue]

Waaaaaaaay too low on Rankine. Had a rough year with injury and suspension but showed he's a game-changer with mid rotations. Would only have Walsh, Butters, Rozee and Blakey ahead of him in that draft.

Rankine was rated number 2 in the AFL behind Heeney before he was injured. Top 3 for sure


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[Bearded Carpenter]

is there any word on the status of Walsh's back and if any post season surgery or treatment ??

He is currently lubricating it with bintangs.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

A modern day Andrew McKay.

I've got Michael Sexton.

 

[ITCHY EYEBALLS]

Cannot emphasise enough the importance of ball movement, overlap, one-two-three handballs. Brisbane were moving the ball exquisitely in the second half. The no look handballs, the overlap, the 3 players on the boundary line with cleans hands getting the ball 30 metres down the line before bringing it inboard to a player running past.

We do NOT play this way. We win the ball through individual brilliance ie Cripps busting a pack, TDK ripping it out of the ruck duel etc. The contest, contest, contest method won't last a whole season, it is too taxing.

We really, really need to build a better ball moving system.

Yep we are miles off the ball movement of the top few sides.
Some of the footskills displayed under pressure are better than ours under no pressure.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Yep we are miles off the ball movement of the top few sides.
Some of the footskills displayed under pressure are better than ours under no pressure.

The ability to retain the ball for an extra 1-2 posessions before the kick to contest would really add up over the course of a year.

Difference between blind hacks and targeted I50s.

 

[lily of laguna]

Lij cost me last week, had a 17 leg same game multi $235 odds, only leg that didn't get up was lij finished on 68 fantasy points and needed 70, let's just say it's taken me a week to get over it.

I don’t get why you would put yourself through the agony???
Betting is and always has been a mugs game!
Better off without the “thrill”!


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[jj1978]

Geelong is the club the Blues were 25 years ago. Brian Cook is quite possibly strategically steering us towards being in that same space again.

Brian Cook is dreaming of retirement.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Rankine was rated number 2 in the AFL behind Heeney before he was injured. Top 3 for sure

And he's exactly the kind of player we need...

 

[DangerousD]

Saad’s run and dare has already been blunted by the Voss way, do we expect “give it to Houston” is going to make that much difference? It will create more pressures on willing soldiers to carry the load defensively while getting 1/4 of the remuneration. Does not work for long term sustainability.

If this is the reality and I have my concerns then, we are doomed to fail regardless what list manager strategy we implement.

 

[Coops93]

Waaaaaaaay too low on Rankine. Had a rough year with injury and suspension but showed he's a game-changer with mid rotations. Would only have Walsh, Butters, Rozee and Blakey ahead of him in that draft.

Even in saying that he was rated no.1 in the comp several times by Champion data. Say what you will about stats/analytics but it shows he's an elite player and is certainly not the 13th best player in his draft.

 

[Forty3]

Cerra isn’t an A grader, no where near the league’s top players…

As you said both Cerra and Walsh were fit and firing in 2023 and got us to 5th (10 points behind 4th spot)…

Walsh has had an elite year on numbers, though his kicking has dropped 12%..

Is Walsh improving his kicking and Cerra playing more games really going to move the needle from 8th to Premiership?

Yes, injuries were a cruel factor, but our core group still played the majority of the season together… Plus every team has injuries…

Makes me think of further questions, it can’t just be injuries..

1. Our top talent have won many awards, B&F’s, AA’s, Coleman’s, MVP, Brownlow, Best in Finals & Coaches award.. Are our top talent brilliant individually, but struggle as a team?
2. Is our second tier of players not good enough?
3. Is our depth not good enough?
4. Is Voss and Co, not good enough, tactically and game plan wise?
5. Is our list Philosophy, not good enough?

I’m not in the group we need more stars.. But I really hoped we were going to address a small forward or two, a KPD to work with Weitering and a midfielder with pace, while going to the draft…

Doesn’t look like we’re going to do any of this, except hit the draft…

Instead of telling Kennedy and Owies to explore their options, those that actually kick goals… Why aren’t we telling Motlop, Durdin, Fantasia the same thing…

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

So in your opinion, is the the club in a good position, both financially and list balance wise, to trade for a player like 28 year old Houston or do we focus on drafting quality youth this off season?