Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[HereComesJuddy]

SDK won’t be happening, but let’s say it is, I don’t think he is worth more than our F1 pick. He hasn’t been playing great football for a while now and many Geelong supporters think he has dropped off significantly since their 2022 premiership year.

Don’t think he is leaving this year at least

 

[djw1952]

Let’s revisit this in a couple of years. Berry and Lindsay will follow similar trajectories to Obrien and Konstanty. Won’t break into AFL consistently.

You’re acting like kicking goals and collecting junk marks at junior level translates to AFL. News flash - it doesn’t.

Wow a few big statements to hang your hat on there, but it`s all academic as Austin is the only one who gets to pick who we take anyway.....

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I wonder if Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

could be this mysterious cap dumping we've heard about? WCE wouldn't really need to but would like picks, he's apparently been meeting with interstate teams as well, WCE seem to have made it clear he's not in their future plans.

Goal kicking mid with good skills... Could do worse but doubt it's on the cards for us

 

[Forty3]

I was all agreeing with your post until this

Harry, Charlie, Cripps and Walsh have all signed their deals whilst Cook has been here, a few of these will form part of the 5 nudging $1M.

It’s hard to manage a list with several big earners like that. Brisbane don’t have many in deals like that, so how do other teams seemingly keep players on modest deals but we are paying big $$$$

Because the 5 salaries are staggered so that they aren't getting paid the big $$$ all in the same year. The difference between actual AFL contracts and reported AFL contracts is that very very very few are set amounts/year. So when a reporter say X will earn $8million over 7 seasons, the media and the public go, wow that guys getting $1.15m a year every year for 7 years.
Where as its traditionally done either back ended, front ended or in our case at the moment more like a bell graph. So having each of these bell graphs contracts staggered means in any given year only one or two of the players will actually be receiving the highest earning point of their salary.

They have also all taken under compared to the market value and offers they have received.

Brisbane and other teams definitely have deals like that, some not as many as others, but all have marquee higher earners.
The reason Brisbane, Sydney and Collingwood have been able to manage over the last couple of years is because they have secured academy and father son top end talent who are on locked contracts for their first three years. This has helped them succeed now, but kicks the can down the road. Collingwood is finding it hard to retain some middling best 22 players this year because Daicos is now out of his draftee contract. It's also what has caught up with the Dogs the last couple of years.

This is why refilling from the draft is so important, not only does it refresh your list but it also refreshes your salary cap.
As stated in an earlier post, the difference between Owies, Young, Cunningham and 3 draftees could be close to 1mil in cap space. Obviously have 35 players between 23 and 28 on a list would be ideal, but its simple not possible to keep that many players of AFL standard happy financially and game timewise.

That's the tricky balance of List Management, having enough 1-3 year players to allow you to pay your prime players, and hoping that from those drafted players, a high % go on to being top tier players, as the older ones start to get to the back end of their contracts which are designed to taper off and then a collection of role players who are team driven but happen to not be lured away by other clubs for higher figures.
This is the sustainability model that allows you to stay a competitive team year on year. Getting full club buy in that you will earn fairly throughout your career, earning the most when you are in the age bracket to be delivering the most, but building the confidence of both the younger and older players that everyone will get their lick of the ice cream. Once this becomes ingrained within a clubs DNA you find that players will stay for less with the desire for success that leave for the lucrative deals that other clubs will throw at them.

Some clubs find it very tough, player managers these days are on another planet. They look to get their players taken in the first round contract extensions in excess of $600k+ before they have even played a game. That is another reason why club culture as well as the club have positive relationships with player managers is so important.
(As i mention a while ago in regards to the Martin situation)

Once again to reference Geelong, up until last years tomfoolery, they just got deals done, they didn't haggle to much, they were happy to identify the player they wanted, and do what was required to get the deal done.
That built up repour is not something that is quickly forgotten within the industry.
Although the AFL seems like a massive business, there really isn't that many people involved. So you don't want to burn bridges to often for the sake of making a 'ruthless' point.
Unless there is a very serious point that needs to be made.

Sorry for the long winded reply. Hopefully I've articulated this well enough.

 

[charred_fate]

SDK won’t be happening, but let’s say it is, I don’t think he is worth more than our F1 pick. He hasn’t been playing great football for a while now and many Geelong supporters think he has dropped off significantly since their 2022 premiership year.

Don’t think he is leaving this year at least

Yep, what some people have been suggesting we give up in a trade for SDK is madness.

 

[Wickzki]

Sorry for the long winded reply. Hopefully I've articulated this well enough.

Can someone link this post in an important post thread or something so that it can be linked to as appropriate

Nail on the absolute head.

Perfectly articulated.

This is why you need a multi-layered approach and it shouldn't be win now versus win later. A well managed club works to achieve both goals.

Thanks Forty3 .

 

[katmanblue]

Wasn't Wright mentioned a little while back by a previous poster somewhere on here?

Yeah, ages ago. It was at least three pages earlier .

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Wickzki]

I wonder if Tim Kelly could be this mysterious cap dumping we've heard about? WCE wouldn't really need to but would like picks, he's apparently been meeting with interstate teams as well, WCE seem to have made it clear he's not in their future plans.

Goal kicking mid with good skills... Could do worse but doubt it's on the cards for us

If his medicals are good - and I don't know why they wouldn't be (17-22-20 games last 3 years) then I wouldn't be adverse to this type of trade at all.

Kelly leaving the Eagles would be a good "reset" move for the Eagles. I always feel some players are just so intricately linked to a club's slide that it stands out. For example, Eddie Betts leaving our football club and signing Daisy Thomas. Aaron Hamill leaving at the end of 2000 and our subsequent fall from grace. I think Kelly is that player for West Coast. They got him at the end of 2019 and they haven't been the same football club since. The talk about how much they gave up to get him has only recently been replaced by another Harley Reid headline.

Think he's more talented than for that to be his lasting legacy. For that to happen he needs a fresh start. I think he would be an ideal forward of the ball midfielder for us. If you can get Walsh and Cerra back to 100% it could be a difference maker.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Once again to reference Geelong, up until last years tomfoolery, they just got deals done, they didn't haggle to much, they were happy to identify the player they wanted, and do what was required to get the deal done.

I remember hearing an interview with Stephen Wells a few years back, who held the mantra that sometimes you have to pay overs to get the player you want, because you don't have to 'win' every trade. His belief was that all parties should walk away happy after any trade.

Which is one of the reasons why they've been as successful as they've been over many years. And from what I've seen of Austin so far, he seems to have a similar philosophy - which I personally find refreshing after our previous list manager who successfully managed to clog up a number of trade periods, similar to Dodoro.

 

[yibbida]

I'm still trying to get over the last time we low-balled a handy little small forward of ours!

Be Owies - on rookie list so on minimum wage. Actually play AFL football. Cement a spot in a team that has played finals. All while still on minimum wage/rookie contract. Club can't keep him on rookie wage anymore so we are going to trade him and pay some kid who hasn't played a single AFL game $100k per season more to take up a list spot.

 

[BlueTongue]

..."Once again to reference Geelong, up until last years tomfoolery, they just got deals done, they didn't haggle to much, they were happy to identify the player they wanted, and do what was required to get the deal done.
That built up repour is not something that is quickly forgotten within the industry.
Although the AFL seems like a massive business, there really isn't that many people involved. So you don't want to burn bridges to often for the sake of making a 'ruthless' point.
Unless there is a very serious point that needs to be made. "

I'd say that ^ pretty much rules out SDK & Houston then.

All I'll say is that we have an offer (Houston) on a platter, and not really overs by what was last reported, so Austin would really, REALLY, want to nail those cheapo trades & draft picks. Especially considering 'the window'.

If they turn out average, then he's going to get called out big-time for letting it slip.

 

[djw1952]

Yep, what some people have been suggesting we give up in a trade for SDK is madness.

Just remember that Mackie (cats list manager....) is the new Dodo of trading........sell high, buy low that`s his tightarse mantra!!!

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

Be funny if Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

goes back to Geelong.

 

[morningbrown]

I can confirm that Houston will not be going to north Melbourne.

Houston’s manager sounded us out and he approached us- we showed no interest and Austin knows it’s not a dire need but rather a luxury to have Houston.

It’s in our court whether we want him enough.

He is either staying at port or coming to us.

He is best mates with JSOS and also has the Voss connection-he is moving for his GF but does love port so will happily stay which is why he requested a trade despite saying he was staying a month ago.

He has agreed to our contract of 4M over 5 years which is what we could afford in our cap, given the salary dump player we are interested in. We will not be giving up pick 11 under any circumstances.

Issue is that Austin is set on having two first rounders. Owies is being linked to the Houston trade. Austin is trying to do F1 and F2 for Houston. Owies (GC/port/essendon) and Carroll (WCE) will be traded.

Austin is trying a salary dump player as well involving a 2nd round pick in the 20s to try and get back into the top 20 using that pick plus the Carrol and owies pick (both should be in the late 30s.

If we can hold onto 11 and get another top 20 pick whilst bringing in Houston he will be in navy blue next year. This is fully on our terms.

I don’t think it will happen similar to papley and Sydney as Austin won’t bend over to ports ludicrous demands.

Once again should Petracca request a trade publicly and force Dees hand this is all out the window.

#bluemour#Bluemour

These two paras seem to directly contradict each other…..

 

[Wickzki]

Be funny if Tim Kelly goes back to Geelong.

Inb4 Geelong have 100 players on their list.

 

[Laurence]

Be funny if Tim Kelly goes back to Geelong.

Unless he has split from his partner (which he hasn’t/ newly engaged), he isn’t moving interstate.

It’s either WC or Freo

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Because the 5 salaries are staggered so that they aren't getting paid the big $$$ all in the same year. The difference between actual AFL contracts and reported AFL contracts is that very very very few are set amounts/year. So when a reporter say X will earn $8million over 7 seasons, the media and the public go, wow that guys getting $1.15m a year every year for 7 years.
Where as its traditionally done either back ended, front ended or in our case at the moment more like a bell graph. So having each of these bell graphs contracts staggered means in any given year only one or two of the players will actually be receiving the highest earning point of their salary.

They have also all taken under compared to the market value and offers they have received.

Brisbane and other teams definitely have deals like that, some not as many as others, but all have marquee higher earners.
The reason Brisbane, Sydney and Collingwood have been able to manage over the last couple of years is because they have secured academy and father son top end talent who are on locked contracts for their first three years. This has helped them succeed now, but kicks the can down the road. Collingwood is finding it hard to retain some middling best 22 players this year because Daicos is now out of his draftee contract. It's also what has caught up with the Dogs the last couple of years.

This is why refilling from the draft is so important, not only does it refresh your list but it also refreshes your salary cap.
As stated in an earlier post, the difference between Owies, Young, Cunningham and 3 draftees could be close to 1mil in cap space. Obviously have 35 players between 23 and 28 on a list would be ideal, but its simple not possible to keep that many players of AFL standard happy financially and game timewise.

That's the tricky balance of List Management, having enough 1-3 year players to allow you to pay your prime players, and hoping that from those drafted players, a high % go on to being top tier players, as the older ones start to get to the back end of their contracts which are designed to taper off and then a collection of role players who are team driven but happen to not be lured away by other clubs for higher figures.
This is the sustainability model that allows you to stay a competitive team year on year. Getting full club buy in that you will earn fairly throughout your career, earning the most when you are in the age bracket to be delivering the most, but building the confidence of both the younger and older players that everyone will get their lick of the ice cream. Once this becomes ingrained within a clubs DNA you find that players will stay for less with the desire for success that leave for the lucrative deals that other clubs will throw at them.

Some clubs find it very tough, player managers these days are on another planet. They look to get their players taken in the first round contract extensions in excess of $600k+ before they have even played a game. That is another reason why club culture as well as the club have positive relationships with player managers is so important.
(As i mention a while ago in regards to the Martin situation)

Once again to reference Geelong, up until last years tomfoolery, they just got deals done, they didn't haggle to much, they were happy to identify the player they wanted, and do what was required to get the deal done.
That built up repour is not something that is quickly forgotten within the industry.
Although the AFL seems like a massive business, there really isn't that many people involved. So you don't want to burn bridges to often for the sake of making a 'ruthless' point.
Unless there is a very serious point that needs to be made.

Sorry for the long winded reply. Hopefully I've articulated this well enough.

Agree with the bit about just taking kids out of the draft. Dees won a premiership after taking kozzie and Jackson in the draft. They were key players too.

Geelong annoy me a bit. Benefit from poaching players from other clubs more than any other yet can be very difficult the other way around.

When they kept Kelly despite him having special needs infant kids I thought it was disgusting really when they poach danger, cameron, hendo, touhy, Stanley, Steven, etc. Etc. Etc.

They are pr!ck5 to deal with. So if they don't want to lose sdk I'd just accept it and move on even if he requests a trade.

However I can't see how they chase Smith and Oliver and have no high picks and get it done. Got to be something going out the other way surely?

Anyway I like Houston and sdk but happy to stick to the draft. If either we're a gun speedy midfielder I'd be happy to trade all our picks. But they're not.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

If his medicals are good - and I don't know why they wouldn't be (17-22-20 games last 3 years) then I wouldn't be adverse to this type of trade at all.

Kelly leaving the Eagles would be a good "reset" move for the Eagles. I always feel some players are just so intricately linked to a club's slide that it stands out. For example, Eddie Betts leaving our football club and signing Daisy Thomas. Aaron Hamill leaving at the end of 2000 and our subsequent fall from grace. I think Kelly is that player for West Coast. They got him at the end of 2019 and they haven't been the same football club since. The talk about how much they gave up to get him has only recently been replaced by another Harley Reid headline.

Think he's more talented than for that to be his lasting legacy. For that to happen he needs a fresh start. I think he would be an ideal forward of the ball midfielder for us. If you can get Walsh and Cerra back to 100% it could be a difference maker.

His medicals aren't the issue. It's his form and the fact he's 30.

 

[Wickzki]

His medicals aren't the issue. It's his form and the fact he's 30.

Not concerned with the form. The talent is there. Amazing what happens to talented players who are put into teams with something other than a top three draft pick to fight for.

Not concerned with him being 30 either. You can get 2 or 3 good seasons out of him. Successful premiership contenders often get the last few years out of talented players or do I need to dig up a list of all of the older players who've joined contenders and been a part of something great?

If he was 30 and his body breaking down? You'd be onto something. But he has skills where we're lacking.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Not concerned with the form. The talent is there. Amazing what happens to talented players who are put into teams with something other than a top three draft pick to fight for.

Not concerned with him being 30 either. You can get 2 or 3 good seasons out of him. Successful premiership contenders often get the last few years out of talented players or do I need to dig up a list of all of the older players who've joined contenders and been a part of something great?

If he was 30 and his body breaking down? You'd be onto something. But he has skills where we're lacking.

Not many players who fall away somehow get good again after they turn 30.

Best not wasting time / money on Kelly. Not like he's had a small dip in form. He has fallen off a cliff.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Crazy…
Martin free obviously
Smith for 15
Oliver for a 2nd rnd pick (salary dump)

Is Smith > > Houston?

(not similar players granted but on a cost comparison basis?)

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Not concerned with the form. The talent is there. Amazing what happens to talented players who are put into teams with something other than a top three draft pick to fight for.

Not concerned with him being 30 either. You can get 2 or 3 good seasons out of him. Successful premiership contenders often get the last few years out of talented players or do I need to dig up a list of all of the older players who've joined contenders and been a part of something great?

If he was 30 and his body breaking down? You'd be onto something. But he has skills where we're lacking.

Not many players who fall away somehow get good again after they turn 30.

Best not wasting time / money on Kelly. Not like he's had a small dip in form. He has fallen off a cliff.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Oliver wants to be traded to Geelong too.
They are getting Smith, Martin and potentially Oliver. They will be premiership favourites next year with these trades

funny.

 

[GoBlues!]

These two paras seem to directly contradict each other…..

I think Glicksy is trying to say that we were not initially chasing or interested in Houston.

We are not desperate for him but we were approached by his manager and have made an offer of $4m/5 years which he is agreeable to.

Only issue is that we are not that desperate or prepared to give Port what it wants to release him.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

most of the 30 against the worst couple of sides in the comp. Good luck to him if someone is actually offering something decent. Run boy!

Such a facile argument.

He scored 3 goals against each of the Cats, Demons and Magpies and a couple against the Dogs.

To say he can't kick goals against the better teams is BS.

Not his fault the midfield went missing repeatedly in the back half of the season.... nor that the coaching style wrt delivery I50 is lamentable....

I get it we trade him if it's part of a super dooper deal, but he's our best SF by a country mile.

$500k is peanuts these days....