Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[marcmurphy3]

Am I the only one who thinks Houston gets overrated a bit? Okay, AA half back. One of the best kicks in the comp, great. Probably his main one wood though and not especially a great actual defender (could stand to be corrected).

But he might not suddenly be so effective if he came to us with our static movement and lack of separation up field anyway. Would move the needle a bit for sure (hate how common this expression has suddenly become but anyway) but not worth it if we sacrifice necessary improvement elsewhere.

He's a gun but his recent AA accolades have definately helped boost his standing.

Don't get me wrong. He had AA standard years but was not an absolute standout in his position. Could easily have been overlooked both years and it wouldn't have been a big drama. Went his way both times.

Some players have 4-5 AA standard years and get 1 selection or none. Look at Weiters and even Doch. Houston had only 2 years in his career anywhere near consideration and got the nod both times

Nobody remembers the almost selections at the end of the day though and 2 x AA sounds much better then 4 x almost AA.

 

[ferrisb]

I agree but is Ethan Phillips a definite upgrade on Young?

Ethan Phillips is not a definite upgrade on Young. He's a possible upgrade on Young. It's worth the 'risk' IMHO.

If you have a best 22 player, there's little point replacing them with a player that might/might not be better (ignoring age, salary, injuries etc).

If you have a fringe/reserve/depth player, I think there's a good argument for replacing them with a player that may/may not be better. Upside is you win. Downside is you replace one non-best 22 with another non-best 22. I see that as an asymmetrical payoff.

Note, I also deliberately wrote 'similar state league player'. I meant a Phillips type, not specifically Phillips. I have NFI. I don't even watch most AFL games, let alone state leagues. But if I was in Blues recruitment I would be asking my scouts to find me the best KPB not on a list (or a gettable AFL-listed one).

 

[woof39]

Very annoying to miss out on Houston, feels like we are playing too safe. i wanted chips in.
I don't see as much internal improvement as others on this forum do, to match it with some of the other teams.

It is hard to envision great improvement because of what we saw towards the end of the year.

A couple of things to bear in mind:

- If our injuries improve a little bit (in reality it was so horrific, expect a big improvement), it's worth at least 2-3 more wins

- Doc and SOS become almost new recruits and give us better depth and versatility

- We will still bring in a few players to assist with our list and or least better depth (Haynes and whoever else they get). Look at what this coaching staff have done with guys like Cottrell, Cincotta, Boyd, Fogarty and Owies. Why wouldn't they be able to do the same with 1 or 2 no names this year that we haven't even considered?

- The competition is so even that although we seem way off, we aren't that far away from finishing top 4

- The fall off from last year was so dramatic, it highlighted the areas that need to be fixed in the off season, there is no hiding. The audit will be so valuable next year.

- Cowan, Ollie, Binns, Lord, Moir (and even Motlop who had a bad season), have another year in the system. Although we can't expect them to become A graders, they again add to our depth and are ready give us more options as they are more experienced with bigger bodies.

- Potentially bringing in 2 1st rounders, adds excitement and X factor to the group.

 

[ESKIE]

When we “miss” out on Smith, who will we be in for next? We always seem to be linked with someone, so who is the next player after Houston and Smith? Thumbs up for anyone who can post our next targets name today and it turns out to be true.

Stringer

 

[DangerousD]

Really…? Wow

You doubt that a large amount of draftees don’t make it as players?

 

[Aphrodite]

Stringer

 

[ESKIE]

You doubt that a large majority of draftees don’t make it as players?

a shallow draft probably but this year it’s a deep draft ‘super draft’

I’m a glass 3/4 full person tho

 

[DangerousD]

Why can’t we win a premiership in 2025?

I wouldn’t use the word can’t and the trade period has barely begun, my view differs from others in that, adding a heap of kids doesn’t get us closer to a flag next year.

Adding players like Barass, Smith, Houston would.

I’m just commenting on what’s happened until now, maybe we strengthen the side and I would have worried for nothing.

I still expect more names to pop up.

 

[Jimmae]

Twomey had him at 3rd and we took him at 3rd

Putting the fair comment on semantics aside, Twomey's final phantom has almost nothing to do with how he rates players.

 

[DangerousD]

a shallow draft probably but this year it’s a deep draft ‘super draft’

I’m a glass 3/4 full person tho

Still a few clubs that stuffed up the 2015 draft.

I’m not against hitting the draft, the trade period is still young, I think we could add players and still get good kids

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Has a top player ever switched his club of choice during the trade period. As in a player who had already nominated. I dont recall it ever happening.

Jade Rawlings?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I don't expect much traction with us until at least the 14th.

 

[AlphaBlue]

Smith not happening. Will be at Geelong.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Yeah, it’s so speculative - makes the draft so interesting

Warner went late and is exactly the player we need too. Just gotta nail one speculative pick and get your first rounders right and you’re laughing.

So many factors though

The deeper the draft, the less speculative it becomes.
There's some pretty good players taken in the 2018 deep draft.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Smith not happening. Will be at Geelong.

Glicksy is a parody at this point... has he got anything right yet?

 

[CCurnow3votes]

We seriously need a FMD emoji…

I use these …

 

[Pixelshooter]

So are we zero chance with Houston? Could there things going on behind the scenes nobody knows about?

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I wouldn’t use the word can’t and the trade period has barely begun, my view differs from others in that, adding a heap of kids doesn’t get us closer to a flag next year.

Adding players like Barass, Smith, Houston would.

I’m just commenting on what’s happened until now, maybe we strengthen the side and I wood have worried for nothing.

I still expect more names to pop up.

Minimum bag of chips names I’d say that hopefully turn into Acres…

But the growth from Moir, Lord, Ollie, Lij, Cowan, Motlop, Durdin, Wilson, then add a couple of good kids will be where we see the growth from our club. It’s team balance.

People can name teams like the Hawks with Barrass, Battle etc going there but we are doing it in the opposite direction to them. They have plenty of kids, now adding a bit more experience. We have an abundance of experience, now just need an influx of kids and the kids already on our list to take the next step.

We have a premiership list and adding 800k plus players will only cripple our club in a quick time with no young talent coming through. If we had Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Charlie, Harry, Williams, TDK, Cerra, Docherty all on 700k plus or at around at a minimum, then adding Houston will only make our list very lop sided. You can’t give 10 people at a company a huge wage and the other 30 peanuts and expect the company to succeed at its optimum.

The time to bring in kids and get them to work with our elite is now, not in 2-3 years time when Tasmania take most of the good kids and with players like Cripps maybe slowing down. Work the cap again this year, front load contracts for 2025 and then attack FA in 2025 along with trading in needs. Adding a few good kids will see us reap the benefits for many years to come imo

 

[Just Kreuzing]

I use these …

Too polite….

 

[Soapy V]

I'd be very happy if we got Ethan Phillips. I wanted him when Hawks drafted him

He is very good defender and can find the ball and use it. Just does basics well.

197cm and at 25 years old would be a good get especially as a DFA

 

[El Topo]

Isn't the reason for getting him to actually help with static movement and ball movement? This is what a gun kick does, just look at hawthorn.
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy not recruiting him based on the idea he won't help with movement and separation.

Hawks look like brilliant kicks because the kicker always goes quickly and the targets are in constant motion upfield. Houston would no doubt improve the side but wouldn't fix what is a whole of team issue.

 

[KohPhi]

Yeah Bailey Smith rumour is dog sh*t unfortunately

Absolutely.. as if the Bulldogs will allow Smith AND their Skipper come to us..

 

[manang magoos]

a shallow draft probably but this year it’s a deep draft ‘super draft’

I’m a glass 3/4 full person tho

According to the media every years a super draft I have a feeling they have all been on the super draft

 

[Blue By Blood]

Hawks look like brilliant kicks because the kicker always goes quickly and the targets are in constant motion upfield. Houston would no doubt improve the side but wouldn't fix what is a whole of team issue.

Yep moving the ball quickly and being in motion makes it easier to hit a target thus hiding certain kicking deficiencies. A lot of times when people say speed is key, sure it’s handy, but genuine speed comes from moving the ball quickly and players being full invested in that style of game plan. The ball travels faster from point A to point B from a kick than someone can run. Moving it quickly makes it hard to defend space across the ground and splits teams open. Well said El Topo.

 

[Coona Blues]

According to the media every years a super draft I have a feeling they have all been on the super draft

This year is absolutely a super draft in terms of depth. There will be historic second round talents still there well in to the third round, or maybe beyond.

(Next year is not as bad as some are conveniently suggesting) Be aware that next year spots will be tighter still. A couple of picks (maybe NGA matches) and a couple of rookie elevation may well pull us up.