Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVII - 'Loopy' Gone Off The Rails

[Sam The Doc]

I think North will trade pick 2

2 for 3 and waite

 

[ctwenty1]

North will 100% split pick 2.

Just saying.


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Who with? Richmond? Can’t imagine them wanting to slip too far

 

[YeoShuey]

I think North will trade pick 2

Let’s enter the Pick 2 conversation then. We can’t let Richmond get everything they want.

 

[YeoShuey]

Who with? Richmond? Can’t imagine them wanting to slip too far

Apparently the BigFooty hypothetical is North giving Pick 2 for Richmond’s 6 and 10.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Let’s enter the Pick 2 conversation then. We can’t let Richmond get everything they want.

They won't go after Draper.

 

[YeoShuey]

They won't go after Draper.

They may go after O’Sullivan though who may be who we are after.

Every spot higher will benefit us.

 

[marcmurphy3]

North only split if the player they want is there at 6 anyway. That's the only way I see them taking 6+18. I don't see Tigers offering 6+10.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

They may go after O’Sullivan though who may be who we are after.

Every spot higher will benefit us.

North aren't just going to hand over pick 2 though... what else are we giving them?

 

[DrTrain]

Can someone please tell me how many list spots we have now? Are there any other out of contract players?

 

[ctwenty1]

Apparently the BigFooty hypothetical is North giving Pick 2 for Richmond’s 6 and 10.

Good deal for north

 

[DangerousD]

I was surprised we took pick 38 for Kennedy instead of a future pick due to a bid on Ben, quite a bit of risk with that pick and we are expecting a decent slide from Ben who had a very strong year.

I also wonder if we have asked the AFL if we could trade our F2 in case we wanted to package it with 38 to get up the board a little. Other clubs seem to get permission to bend the rules.

I have no idea of the quality of the kids in the 4-8 bracket, but i wonder what another club would pay for us to go from 3-5 for example or what Richmond would give us to go from 6 to 3.

3 and 38 for 6 and 18 possibly.

We desperately need to add a KPD, we aren’t doing it at 3 so hopefully it happens somewhere and then we still haven’t addressed any needs forward of centre which is a huge need for us.

This is why i thought 12 and 14 was a better option for us.

 

[carlton_99]

If we aren't taking Draper wonder what we could get for doing a trade with the Crows for Pick 4.

 

[Bletch]

Can someone please tell me how many list spots we have now? Are there any other out of contract players?

Current draft picks: 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72 (total points: 2938)

List changes:
Out: 7 - Domanic Akuei (Delisted), David Cuningham (Delisted), Caleb Marchbank (Delisted), Jack Martin (Delisted), Alex Mirkov (Delisted), Matt Owies (Trade - WCE), Matt Kennedy (Trade - WB)
In: 1 - Nick Haynes (GWS - UFA)
Uncontracted: 0
Retained SSP/MSD Players: 1 - Cooper Lord
Upgraded Rookie: 0

List status:
Senior - 32 (36-38)
Rookie - 6 (0-6)
Cat-B Rookie - 1 (0-2)
Total - 39 (44)

Free spots - 4 senior plus one Cat-B rookie

Note - Matt Duffy (Ireland) likely to take the free Cat-B rookie
Note 2 - Jordan Boyd (Rookie) needs to be upgraded, and will likely take one senior spot

Effective free spots - 3 senior, 1 rookie

As it stands, we can take 4 picks to the draft - 3, 38, 63, 68.

If we make 2 further cuts, we can take all 6 - 3, 38, 63, 68, 69, 72.

Those two delistings must come from Jack Carroll, Sam Durdin, and Matt Carroll, all who remain uncontracted. It can be any of these three, as it is limited by both (i) the maximum of 38 on the primary list; AND (ii) the maximum of 42 on primary+rookie (not counting Cat-B).

How we approach this will depend on what we intend to do with pick 38. "Pick Swap" trading opens tomorrow, so potentially, we could swap it out during that period (maybe for a future). Swapping it for an earlier pick will be difficult, as we don't have a lot of leverage to do so - unless we're prepared to move pick 3 down, which I think is highly unlikely.

There's a further opportunity to do a "live trade" of pick 38 on draft night.

Or, we can just leave it. In which case:
(i) a bid comes in for Ben Camporeale before our pick 38 (it won't be 38 by then, but wherever it is). In this case, pick 38 will be used for matching Ben, and we'll get a bit left over, probably enough for another pick in the 60s, but that will be a bit of a waste.
(ii) we just use it on Ben anyway - unlikely!!
(iii) we use it on another player available at that pick, and match bids on Ben and Lucas with the remaining picks.

It's a bit of a lottery as to whether a bid will come in or not. It's around the mark for where Ben should go. So you'd think we'd have some sort of plan to offload that pick. But who knows. It was a strange trade for us to make.

Let's look at where pick 38 is likely to end up. I posted this earlier:


Situation now:
Brisbane: 27, 34, 42, 43, 49, 60, 66
Essendon: 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, 65
Gold Coast: 39, 41, 51, 61, 70, 76, 78

I'm still of the opinion Brisbane will down-trade 27, but let's say there's still two of their picks that come in before our 38, and both of those get consumed by the Ashcroft bid. Similarly, let's assume Essendon's first two picks go the same way (again, they could potentially downtrade). But that makes 4 picks that are consumed before ours. However, there are also picks inserted for Ashcroft, Lombard, Marshall and Kako. So 4 - 4 = 0. 38 stays at 38! It will not come in higher than that. It may come in a pick or two lower (39 or 40).

At pick 38, it's very much in the danger zone for a bid. It will then get consumed for matching Ben. We'll then have a 3rd pick at 63 (which will come in by quite a bit - maybe around 55). If a bid comes in for Lucas, we also grab that, otherwise, we'll rookie him, and potentially take a 4th selection in the draft.

Effectively though, unless we offload 38, we've probably traded Kennedy for pick 63 (~55), which is a bit sad imo.

Anyway, we'll know soon enough what further changes we make to the list. I expect 1-2 more delistings, probably Sam Durdin, then Matt Carroll. I think we keep Jack.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

SEN today saying that the Tiggs could be looking at moving up the draft. Potentially they could jag Lalor and Smith (who played VFL for them) with pick 1 and 3.

Would we entertain trading pick 3 for pick 6 and 10/11? Pick 38 then gets traded back to 2025.

It’s definitely a chance, just going on Soapy’s dialogue which has rung true throughout.
The club wanted 2 picks within 20

I don’t think they thought they were a real chance at Pick 3 though so would make it a very tough decision to trade back


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[YeoShuey]

If we aren't taking Draper wonder what we could get for doing a trade with the Crows for Pick 4.

Considering Adelaide only have 4 and 64, nothing would work this year anyway.

I think a reason why we targeted Pick 3 is interest in Draper. Gives us a chance before Adelaide get theirs.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

North will 100% split pick 2.

Just saying.


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If Richmond or Melbourne or Saints pony up they’ll definitely split, they just don’t need another midfielder and that’s all that’s there at that pick worth taking.


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[Schoonerman]

We've got probably the the 6th best midfield in the comp. We've trade out our 3/4th best mid and we hope to recruit a kid.

WTF?

A big PLUS on getting us to #3 but such a waste to use it on a kid.

The window is NOW and we just ****ed it up.

Collingwood will go and get Petracca next year. - who he barracked for and they'll be able to afford him when Pendlebury and Sidebottom retire.

We lost the draft by not capitalising on #3.

My rant, my continuing despair.

I predict we'll finish 5 - 8 next year - if we're lucky.

Such a wasted opportunity.

95 will be the best memory I'll have (is there better?) - bring back the win at costs of Big Jack.

Going through the motions for a 30th year.

Wasted opportunity.

Not sure the Pies will have any high draft picks to use on Trac so that ain’t happening

 

[TimeFor17]

Mark this comment and throw eggs at me in 12 months if I’m wrong…. But I feel extremely quietly confident on next year. Not saying the cup is already in the cabinet but I feel good about it for some reason. Long time sufferer and haven’t felt like this for 30 odd full sun cycles..

I was at the Gabba for our prelim loss last year with my son. We had so much joy together in the first quarter where we hit the big green button. First time I saw in my 12 yo face (for first time) the old bagger belief. We ran out of puff and capitulated but what a comeback year. My son was so bullish for this year but I had a deep feeling of dread that disappointment would come. And it did.

But I feel calm about the baggers again. I feel the club is finally embracing our mistakes and learning from them. I think we have made bold decisions in the off season and I am sad to see Owies and Kennedy go because I love them… but life involves grief and how you move forward from it.

These sad decisions were the right calls for the club. For us. For the blue bagger in us all. Good things will come. It starts next year.

On a side note, mate of mine played all junior footy with Mr Wright and been good friends all the way through. GW has always given info on certain people in the industry but never when the info has been critical to affect the situation if that makes sense.

Nothing ever was relayed about possible trades over the years. The ultimate professional. The greatest ships always have the greatest captains… we are in good hands and finally Elliot’s arrogance and the curse it brought our club can be cleansed.

 

[The Bighouse]

Blues Tigers North have had great trade periods in my opinion

Pies are all in. Need a flag next year or in trouble

Saints Demons Essendon achieved nothing good and are in no man’s land

Dee’s go alright with their drafting (prob the best in the business), 2 x top 10 picks should serve them well.
Sharp as a shot to replace ANB.

 

[Benaly28]

Who with? Richmond? Can’t imagine them wanting to slip too far

Yep.


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[Sam The Doc]

Mark this comment and throw eggs at me in 12 months if I’m wrong…. But I feel extremely quietly confident on next year. Not saying the cup is already in the cabinet but I feel good about it for some reason. Long time sufferer and haven’t felt like this for 30 odd full sun cycles..
I was at the Gabba for our prelim loss last year with my son. We had so much joy together in the first quarter where we hit the big green button. First time I saw in my 12 yo face (for first time) the old bagger belief. We ran out of puff and capitulated but what a comeback year. My son was so bullish for this year but I had a deep feeling of dread that disappointment would come. And it did. But I feel calm about the baggers again. I feel the club is finally embracing our mistakes and learning from them. I think we have made bold decisions in the off season and I am sad to see Owies and Kennedy go because I love them… but life involves grief and how you move forward from it. These sad decisions were the right calls for the club. For us. For the blue bagger in us all. Good things will come. It starts next year.

On a side note, mate of mine played all junior footy with Mr Wright and been good friends all the way through. GW has always given info on certain people in the industry but never when the info has been critical to affect the situation if that makes sense. Nothing ever was relayed about possible trades over the years. The ultimate professional. The greatest ships always have the greatest captains… we are in good hands and finally Elliot’s arrogance and the curse it brought our club can be cleansed.

I’m with ya…
Was also there at the prelim, my god that first q was the best… but hopefully the best is next year ?
Get our fitness and training right and who knows !

 

[Benaly28]

They won't go after Draper.

Tigers want Lalor.


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[Benaly28]

Considering Adelaide only have 4 and 64, nothing would work this year anyway.

I think a reason why we targeted Pick 3 is interest in Draper. Gives us a chance before Adelaide get theirs.

Correct and crows will try to upgrade on trade night.They want Draper.


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[Blue_Fusion]

Tigers want Lalor.

Yep. They also want Smith and FOS too...

They may make that play for pick 2...

 

[FlowersByIrene]

If we did slide 3 down to 6 are we still guaranteed a gun midfielder or are there only 5 players in the upper elite level this year and then the remainder all about even for the next 20?

In my uneducated opinion there is a clear top 4.