Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVII

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Seems like many are pleased if we get 3 and lose 12 14 and Owies.
To me that seems like us being done over.

Feel free to try and convince me otherwise.

Don't think it will be possible to convince you...

Reality is, all draft picks are hit and miss. Pick 3 just gives you a better chance at getting a superstar, but only one bite at the cherry. 12 + 14 are two bites at the cherry, but less chance of either being a superstar.

12 could be the next Charlie Curnow and 3 could be the next Dow...

Or 3 could be the next Dusty and 12 the next Kane Lucas...
 

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So Carlton traded for the pick people thought Hawthorn would use in the Tom Barrass deal and went to West Coast and used it in the deal to get pick 3 off them 😂
 
I don't dislike O'Sullivan, but I do wonder if he provides enough of a point of difference given we've already got Walsh and Cerra for the next ~8 years.

I think if we're taking a top 3 mid, the expectation will generally be that they play most of their first season. To make room in the middle, alongside Cripps, Walsh and a fit-again Cerra, it's probably Hewett that makes way. I reckon Cerra then takes the Hewett role, defensive-leaning mid but with the ability to make his kicks count when he gets them. To balance that group, you don't want another middling pace midfielder does everything to a good standard but lacks a genuine weapon - you want a bloke who can either tuck the ball under his arm and break the lines, or a bloke who can hold position outside the contest, be fed the ball by our more mature mids, and then hit leading targets for fun.
 

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Finn O'Sullivan

O'Sullivan recorded a 2.989 second 20m sprint, 8.152 seconds in the agility test and on Friday ran the 2km time trial in 6:28 minutes, placing him in the top dozen prospects across the three events.
we don't need any more onballers...our priority is a key big defender (two would be great) ...hope his disposal is better than his cousins cause he costs us with his woeful disposal.
 
Draftees from 1 - 20 earn $105,000. We can afford 3 draftees (at least) by including Owies in the deal.

We have decided to lay it all on the line and go for a game changer this year and in 2 years (Walker) and back that our list gets healthy and that Lord, Moir, Binns, Ben and Lucas can prove that they are AFL quality.

I absolutely love the strategy. Of course there are risks involved. I believe that with good coaching and an average injury run we have the capacity to challenge. I think that this move extends that capacity to 4 - 5 years. I fully understand that others might not agree though.

Risk involved with any strategy... imagine 12 + 14 players turn out to be duds while 3 ends up being a superstar. Same thing could happen the other way around too...

No way of knowing.

Having a midfield mix of Lalor/Draper/Smith/FOS + Walker + Cripps + Walsh + Cerra + B.Campo is a very exciting prospect. Bold move by the club, gotta take risks.
 
Happy to get Pick 3.

Essentially for Pick 12 & 32 & F1 & Owies.

Hopefully we can manage another usable pick for Kennedy and Carroll. I’d like to have 2x picks before Campo twins.

We still have glaring needs on our list and list cloggers, that we need to work through over the next year or so…
 
I don't dislike O'Sullivan, but I do wonder if he provides enough of a point of difference given we've already got Walsh and Cerra for the next ~8 years.

I think if we're taking a top 3 mid, the expectation will generally be that they play most of their first season. To make room in the middle, alongside Cripps, Walsh and a fit-again Cerra, it's probably Hewett that makes way. I reckon Cerra then takes the Hewett role, defensive-leaning mid but with the ability to make his kicks count when he gets them. To balance that group, you don't want another middling pace midfielder does everything to a good standard but lacks a genuine weapon - you want a bloke who can either tuck the ball under his arm and break the lines, or a bloke who can hold position outside the contest, be fed the ball by our more mature mids, and then hit leading targets for fun.

Don't think he's middling pace at all...

He had an injury interrupted year and that is my biggest concern with him. Multiple injuries...
 
Owies could have walked to the PSD or been taken as a DFA, not much value for a player of his type.
We also picked up some extra late picks which will ensure we're good to match bids for Ben and Lucas Campo.

Pick 12 and 14 vs Pick 3 is down to preference, really. Nothing inherently wrong with thinking we should have kept the later picks.

My view is that one of those two picks, statistically, won't work out. Pick 3 might be a bust too (ie. Dow), but is also a good chance of being a game-changer.

What I like about it is that there are a handful of midfielders vying for early selection that have traits we need. Draper is express, Reid is an elite distributor, Smith racks up a billion touches, cuts through traffic and uses the ball well, Smillie is a Cripps who can kick.

The players at 12-14 have some good traits, but a few of them have (as you'd expect) big question marks as well, Travaglia has a good turn of speed but his disposal is a bit suspect and his best position is probably wing (where we've stocked up on kids already). Lindsay is a good user of the ball but to my eye can be quite fumbly at ground level. Tauru and Trainor could be good defensive options, but Trainor has concussion concerns and Tauru isn't really KPP size. Hotton could have been good picks for our forward line, but has had his share of injuries.

The "one" that I'd have loved is Berry.

So Berry plus a "maybe" player, vs a top 3 midfielder with pace and/or good disposal.
Very reasonable and well explained.
 
Don't think it will be possible to convince you...

Reality is, all draft picks are hit and miss. Pick 3 just gives you a better chance at getting a superstar, but only one bite at the cherry. 12 + 14 are two bites at the cherry, but less chance of either being a superstar.

12 could be the next Charlie Curnow and 3 could be the next Dow...

Or 3 could be the next Dusty and 12 the next Kane Lucas...
this strategy from where I sit doesn't go anywhere close to fixing our main issue...our backline. I'm dumbfounded by this strategy!
 

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Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVII

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