Bluemour Season Blast Off Edition XXXIII

[Earls Smother]

I think you've taken it the wrong way. I wasn't out to try and prove some point that O'Brien and Dow are going great guns and there is nothing to worry about, in fact I say it right there is the post you've quoted. I wasn't comparing either to any of those players either, including Parish.

What I was responding to was if there were ANY players who have had slow starts to their careers and turned out well and there are plenty. Whether they are the exception or more common isn't really relevant.

Probably the overarching point of mine was that they are both still really young.

This is not to pick apart your original post but more to play Devil's advocate.

Of the players you mentioned, only 3 were top 10 picks - Bartel, Hodge and Parish. Bartel (pick 8) got 13 Brownlow votes in his 3rd year. Hodge (pick 1) received 15 Brownlow votes in year 4. Others have already covered Parish.

Jobe Watson averaged 23 possessions in year 4, Edwards 19 (and I don't think played mid only?).

Dane Swan started slow as you say, but was pick 58. He did average 23 possessions and got 11 Brownlow votes in year 5. Guys like Kirk, Carrazzo and Curnow were all rookie picks and would have been expected to take longer. Keays (pick 24) has improved after 4 poor years at Brisbane, and is a good example of persistence. He did have to change clubs to turn the corner though.

It is highly unusual to have top 10 picks (midfielders) show so little in their first 4 years (if they are to go on to make it), no matter what way we want to dress it up. They need to be genuine anomalies if they are going to carve out the careers we hope for. FWIW I want to see us keep both.

 

[slashin_velvet]

If we pick up Hewett as a free agent, won't that dilute the Hendo compo pick?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

If we pick up Hewett as a free agent, won't that dilute the Hendo compo pick?

And we'll owe one because Eddie came back

 

[SHOWEY]

Still waiting for hawthorn to look after us after those lopsided pickswaps

 

[Blue Chip Pass]

Is it my imaginations, or have we deleted some of the latest prosts on the Bluemour "No Discussion" thread.?

 

[katmanblue]

Exactly Kat.
But it seems you can't fight city hall.
Or city hall sometimes goes whoosh.

Too busy with online shopping...

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Darcy from the bummers


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yes. Parish was a deadset bum until this season.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Is it my imaginations, or have we deleted some of the latest prosts on the Bluemour "No Discussion" thread.?

Nothing of substance

 

[VainGlorious]

Still waiting for hawthorn to look after us after those lopsided pickswaps

Same.

 

[Aphrodite]

Exactly Kat.
But it seems you can't fight city hall.
Or city hall sometimes goes whoosh.

 

[katmanblue]

Q: How many shoes do you need ?
A: More.

 

[Forever Navy]

Still waiting for hawthorn to look after us after those lopsided pickswaps

Thought it was for poaching Russell

 

[Garters]

This is not to pick apart your original post but more to play Devil's advocate.

Of the players you mentioned, only 3 were top 10 picks - Bartel, Hodge and Parish. Bartel (pick 8) got 13 Brownlow votes in his 3rd year. Hodge (pick 1) received 15 Brownlow votes in year 4. Others have already covered Parish.

Jobe Watson averaged 23 possessions in year 4, Edwards 19 (and I don't think played mid only?).

Dane Swan started slow as you say, but was pick 58. He did average 23 possessions and got 11 Brownlow votes in year 5. Guys like Kirk, Carrazzo and Curnow were all rookie picks and would have been expected to take longer. Keays (pick 24) has improved after 4 poor years at Brisbane, and is a good example of persistence. He did have to change clubs to turn the corner though.

It is highly unusual to have top 10 picks (midfielders) show so little in their first 4 years (if they are to go on to make it), no matter what way we want to dress it up. They need to be genuine anomalies if they are going to carve out the careers we hope for. FWIW I want to see us keep both.

I think you are spot on. People are finding it hard to accept but for those picks of Dow, LOB, SPS and even Cunningham (although injury might be more of an issue here) are not tracking as they should be relative to the general trajectory of top flight midfielders. I remember Paul Roos philosophy was in an interview somewhere that we expect too much yrs 1-3 but yr 4 it's go time. You look back historically and for A graders it is a similar trajectory although a lot get there in year 3. This lot although some good signs from Dow are unfortunately way of the mark relative to that time line.
A big issue of this is the knock on effect to the list build. If SOS had of got those picks right, we are going to the draft this year to stock up on young KP talent rather than backfilling the midfield. It is hard to close those gaps.

You look at all the good rebuilds and they have nailed a number of drafts in quick succession. We only really nailed the first where we had multiple high picks, those two high picks of Dow and LOB has cost us dearly to this point. I am hoping they both get an opportunity this season and Dow really comes on, well both for that matter. Would be bucking the general trend though if they did.

 

[Robertio]

I think you are spot on. People are finding it hard to accept but for those picks of Dow, LOB, SPS and even Cunningham (although injury might be more of an issue here) are not tracking as they should be relative to the general trajectory of top flight midfielders. I remember Paul Roos philosophy was in an interview somewhere that we expect too much yrs 1-3 but yr 4 it's go time. You look back historically and for A graders it is a similar trajectory although a lot get there in year 3. This lot although some good signs from Dow are unfortunately way of the mark relative to that time line.
A big issue of this is the knock on effect to the list build. If SOS had of got those picks right, we are going to the draft this year to stock up on young KP talent rather than backfilling the midfield. It is hard to close those gaps.

You look at all the good rebuilds and they have nailed a number of drafts in quick succession. We only really nailed the first where we had multiple high picks, those two high picks of Dow and LOB has cost us dearly to this point. I am hoping they both get an opportunity this season and Dow really comes on, well both for that matter. Would be bucking the general trend though if they did.

Put them in any top 4 side and they'll be different players, if we can start winning and controlling games more where they get more opportunity I'm sure they'll become very handy players.

 

[Yubby]

I think you are spot on. People are finding it hard to accept but for those picks of Dow, LOB, SPS and even Cunningham (although injury might be more of an issue here) are not tracking as they should be relative to the general trajectory of top flight midfielders. I remember Paul Roos philosophy was in an interview somewhere that we expect too much yrs 1-3 but yr 4 it's go time. You look back historically and for A graders it is a similar trajectory although a lot get there in year 3. This lot although some good signs from Dow are unfortunately way of the mark relative to that time line.
A big issue of this is the knock on effect to the list build. If SOS had of got those picks right, we are going to the draft this year to stock up on young KP talent rather than backfilling the midfield. It is hard to close those gaps.

You look at all the good rebuilds and they have nailed a number of drafts in quick succession. We only really nailed the first where we had multiple high picks, those two high picks of Dow and LOB has cost us dearly to this point. I am hoping they both get an opportunity this season and Dow really comes on, well both for that matter. Would be bucking the general trend though if they did.

Disagree entirely. Shit game plan has an impact and you can't ignore this. Because of this we've seen players like Cripps go from best of the best to looking pretty average. Blaming SOS because he recruited the wrong players is just not right when they are all struggling which suggests issues with development, culture, coaching and game plan before it being a failed pick.

 

[Kings of Lygon]

This is not to pick apart your original post but more to play Devil's advocate.

Of the players you mentioned, only 3 were top 10 picks - Bartel, Hodge and Parish. Bartel (pick 8) got 13 Brownlow votes in his 3rd year. Hodge (pick 1) received 15 Brownlow votes in year 4. Others have already covered Parish.

Jobe Watson averaged 23 possessions in year 4, Edwards 19 (and I don't think played mid only?).

Dane Swan started slow as you say, but was pick 58. He did average 23 possessions and got 11 Brownlow votes in year 5. Guys like Kirk, Carrazzo and Curnow were all rookie picks and would have been expected to take longer. Keays (pick 24) has improved after 4 poor years at Brisbane, and is a good example of persistence. He did have to change clubs to turn the corner though.

It is highly unusual to have top 10 picks (midfielders) show so little in their first 4 years (if they are to go on to make it), no matter what way we want to dress it up. They need to be genuine anomalies if they are going to carve out the careers we hope for. FWIW I want to see us keep both.

No, I think it's totally fair enough and I said I am concerned at the lack of development of our boys, what from we can tell as fans anyway.

One salient point that perhaps gets lost in all of it though and I didn't mention, was our two (or however many you want to include) have had 2 years of displacement and interruption that no past generations have dealt with - being the COVID situation. Take the Geelong situation for example, it's a tried and true tale about how their core of stars were able to build in the VFL together before coming through at AFL level. Whilst those boys did that in their first few years, we kind of did it in reverse. Ours were thrust into the AFL by Bolton over senior bodies to get games into them. Good or bad, I'm not sure either way but it was pretty clear that physically, Dow and O'Brien were not ready to contribute at that level. They were skinny and small, not Ollie Wines or Joel Selwood types.

Teague then came in and wanted to play the same old, mature side basically every week, but players like Dow and O'Brien were only able to play half arsed scratch matches instead of fully fledged VFL games when they weren't in the senior side for 2 years. When they did come in, they were played in spots I wouldn't consider their best positions and were always on the precipice of being dropped if they had a bad one. They were either away in different states or had limited training (remember when only 6 or 8 players could train in a group?), it was just a shit situation that is not really conducive for growth, especially for younger players. I probably don't need to go into the environment of the club or our gameplan during these 2 years either.

Now did some players from other clubs develop well in this situation? Yes they did. We had Stocker leave the hub and Dow and O'Brien don't exactly strike me as confident, extroverted players who would thrive in these circumstances. God knows we needed to get games into them and we really couldn't do it all that much unless they were playing AFL. Perhaps I'm allowing too many excuses, but I must say that it cannot have been easy.

I think Dow showed more in the back half of this year than his stats and perhaps people on here give him credit for. I think he took a step forward this year, not a big one but a step. O'Brien I am more worried about. I also think people need to perhaps reduce their expectations on these guys being 'great'. Maybe O'Brien ends up being a bit like a Brandon Ellis type rather than Andrew Embley or Craig Bradley? Perhaps Dow's ceiling is a little more Brad Crouch than it is Patrick Dangerfield or Christian Pertracca? I dunno, but I'd be giving them another year at least, both so young still.

Sorry for rattling on a bit.

 

[Jimmyonesix]

There is an article on AFL.com about a potential “salary dump” for North to take on Darcy Macpherson’s contract and also receive a pick upgrade.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but I’m sure we tried to do the same thing with Lobbe and Port a few years ago and the AFL denied the potential upgrade of picks for us.

What more it the compensation pick from the AFL

 

[carlton_99]

What more it the compensation pick from the AFL

So instead of GC using it to actually make them a better team they use it to fix up their salary cap mess and North benefit by just taking on a bit of salary and getting a pick upgrade. What a mess

 

[Jimmyonesix]

So instead of GC using it to actually make them a better team they use it to fix up their salary cap mess and North benefit by just taking on a bit of salary and getting a pick upgrade. What a mess

Yes absolutely crazy ..

 

[Chookaradley]

I have faith in Vos. Played as a midfielder and was heavily involved in the port midfield. He will bring the strength and agression to Dows (and others) game that is missing

Dow needs to learn to run both ways. He is a terrible defence runner, and yes that may be a fitness issue. In fact we have a largely one way running midfield which really hurts us. Thats a big challenge for Voss. Its why we targeted Hewitt.

 

[Beast__Mode]

Sydney didn’t match the Hewett bid. Not unexpected but saves some hassle nonetheless.

Sydney got an end of 2nd, they’ll be happy with that

 

[BIuebagger]

Get in! What a great acquisition

 

[jooce8891]

they're so good at this stuff.

 

[FRUMPY]

Good news. Don't know much about Hewitt but 120 games in the last 6 years for a good competitive club tells me an astute pickup. Sounds like the midfielder who likes to defend that we need

Sent from my CPH2005 using Tapatalk

 

[rp84]

Hewett ours. Great signing