Bluemour 'Silly Season' Edition XXXIV

[Earls Smother]

I think even your categorisation of 'good players' is extremely generous. Walsh is a star. Fisher is fine. De Koning is fine, but 5 years in the system and still not really 'proven' at any position isn't any more than that.

The rest... Honey, Durdin, Boyd, Motlop - I guess if you are being really generous, but out of those I think only Motlop has shown what I'd like to see. Kemp, Philp, Mirkov aren't far off busts either....

Agreed completely on 2015. Take that out and you can go back to:
2014: lets just completely erase this debacle from memory
2013: Cripps was a good pick, otherwise awful
2012: Yikes... I guess Nick Graham counts as a solid late selection?
2011: Bootsma? No wait, that was hideous. Tom Bell in the rookie draft is solid
2010: OH my god this one is a bad draft... 11 players, but at least redeemed by Ed Curnow in the rookie draft
2009: A horrid start (Kane Lucas, Marcus Davies, Rohan Kerr) followed by some really good rookie drafting (Casboult, Touhy, Simon White along with 3 other flubbed picks)

Take out 2015 and you can go back 13 years and sum it up as:
- Walsh and Cripps are excellent first round picks
-Zach Fisher, Tom De Koning, Lochie O'Brien are the only 'solid' picks from roughly 4000 attempts inside the top 30 (plus Durdin/Motlop etc where its probably early to tell)
- Outside the top 30, from roughly 500000 picks in the national and rookie drafts we can point to Nick Graham, Tom Bell, and Ed Curnow.

2015 was a gold-rush but yikes that is a woeful history. I'd wager we could have done better just by 'autodrafting' using the next player up in Knightmare's rankings or similar.

Don't want to be that annoying maths teacher, but 13 x 30 is closer to 400 than 4000.

I reckon if we'd had half a million options to pick from outside the top 30 we would have done slightly better than Graham, Bell and Ed.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Jones was 28 at the time and we were paper thin - our key defensive backups were really just Ben Silvagni and Hugh Goddard. Perfect time to take a guy like De Koning. In a similar vein of thought, this year would be the perfect time to look at a longer term prospect key position forward (who could spend 2-3 years developing, backing up Curnow/McKay and provide injury insurance...) if one were available, and particularly if it was one with the pedigree of De Koning.

I remember a bit of discussion on De Koning and also remember the draft live. Everyone knew we wanted Kemp... my point is that it was a massive mistake. At the time, I was screaming to go for De Koning (it just made so much sense...), and we had that second pick for Kemp (who lets face it, was a massive risk).

Yes, other clubs passed on De Koning too... they didn't have the connection to him that we did. In my view it was a no brainer at the time and its going to be brutal to watch for the next decade.

Your original point was that we wanted SDK and got too cute. Quite simply this wasn't true. At the time the feeling was that we needed back up KPD only which we later filled with McDonald. Kudos to you for knowing in advance about what would happen with Jones.

With the benefit of hindsight SDK would have been a good selection, at the time it didn't appear so for reasons outlined. Not sure how you try and paint it that we wanted SDK but got too cute because this was never the case.

 

[reubsblues]

David Kernahan likes this post

And ben sexton

 

[BigFrizz36]

I know we were probably after run around the midfield but that was a result of Samo / Dow / LOB / etc. not really working - which again is poor recruiting.

We slid back from the pick where we could have taken Kozy Pickett (to get Kemp+Philp) and then the very next year declared we needed a small forward and went for Durdin. So any way you cut the recruiting since 2015 has been patchy at best.

Just as an example the Dogs 2016 draft wins from 6 picks:
19 Timothy English
28 Patrick Lipinski
49 Lewis Young

9 Aaron Naughton
16 Ed Richards
25 (r) Roarke Smith

6 from 11 players taken - 55% hit rate versus our 18%.

So you are counting as successes players that the Dogs took and later traded to other teams to make them better players. Lipinski was traded for a pick in the 40's. Young was traded for the pick that we got for SPS in the 60's. By definition you have to then say that SPS was a a draft win because he got us Young. Which of course he couldn't be.

I suspect draft wins should only be counted as regular senior players who are still with their original club. No doubt that we had our share of misses after 2015 but hindsight re-drafting doesn't fix it. I would argue that the Dow mistake was fixed by Cerra. We got lucky replacing Jones with Young who was probably recruited as a back up.

My argument is that whist it would be good to get every draft pick correct it's how well and how quickly you fix the mistakes that determine how successful your team is. We are fortunate that Cripps and 2015 have pretty much set us up provided we can tweak the edges.

Hawthorn blew two #6 picks in the leading up to their threepeat (Thorpe and Dowler) but were able to fix and re-calibrate. Pretty confident that we are close to being in the same spot.

 

[Arr0w]

Revisionist drafting, love it

 

[DrTrain]

Thoughts on us helping Freo with the Jackson deal. 10 and 66 for 13 and future second that’s the kangaroos afl compo pick?

 

[Earls Smother]

So you are counting as successes players that the Dogs took and later traded to other teams to make them better players. Lipinski was traded for a pick in the 40's. Young was traded for the pick that we got for SPS in the 60's. By definition you have to then say that SPS was a a draft win because he got us Young. Which of course he couldn't be.

I suspect draft wins should only be counted as regular senior players who are still with their original club. No doubt that we had our share of misses after 2015 but hindsight re-drafting doesn't fix it. I would argue that the Dow mistake was fixed by Cerra. We got lucky replacing Jones with Young who was probably recruited as a back up.

My argument is that whist it would be good to get every draft pick correct it's how well and how quickly you fix the mistakes that determine how successful your team is. We are fortunate that Cripps and 2015 have pretty much set us up provided we can tweak the edges.

Hawthorn blew two #6 picks in the leading up to their threepeat (Thorpe and Dowler) but were able to fix and re-calibrate. Pretty confident that we are close to being in the same spot.

This is fair enough if you are looking at it solely through navy and white glasses. Any mistake we make can be forgiven and corrected.

Teddy H's figures above are fair and reasonable - 7 good picks from 38 at 18%. That is ordinary at best.

We shouldn't have to fix Dow with Cerra, or SPS with Hewett. We are wasting trade periods fixing up previous errors. There are always going to be misses and some degree of "fixing" things, but we have missed with all our midfield picks apart from Walsh. Not with speculative picks, but first rounders.

If all clubs had started in an equal position at the start of 2016 (i.e. with our list), at least half would have comfortably played finals by now. We only needed to have 2 of Cuningham, SPS, Dow, Stocker, Philp, Kemp or Setterfield (traded, but was a 1st rounder bid on by us originally) establish themselves as regulars and we would have been right in the mix for a flag this year. No-one is saying all of them should be guns, but none are/were even getting a game.

We have been back-filling midfield holes, when we should have been able to add players of need in other areas to top us off.

 

[BigFrizz36]

And ben sexton

And John Nicholls (whoops)

 

[El Topo]

Some on this board were calling for SDK on draft night, but was there anything coming from the club? Huge year coming up for Kemp and Philip either way

 

[BigFrizz36]

This is fair enough if you are looking at it solely through navy and white glasses. Any mistake we make can be forgiven and corrected.

Teddy H's figures above are fair and reasonable - 7 good picks from 38 at 18%. That is ordinary at best.

We shouldn't have to fix Dow with Cerra, or SPS with Hewett. We are wasting trade periods fixing up previous errors. There are always going to be misses and some degree of "fixing" things, but we have missed with all our midfield picks apart from Walsh. Not with speculative picks, but first rounders.

If all clubs had started in an equal position at the start of 2016 (i.e. with our list), at least half would have comfortably played finals by now. We only needed to have 2 of Cuningham, SPS, Dow, Stocker, Philp, Kemp or Setterfield (traded, but was a 1st rounder bid on by us originally) establish themselves as regulars and we would have been right in the mix for a flag this year. No-one is saying all of them should be guns, but none are/were even getting a game.

We have been back-filling midfield holes, when we should have been able to add players of need in other areas to top us off.

And yet I would argue that our list is in better shape than that of the bulldogs despite original poster telling us how much better their strike rate is than ours and despite them getting a couple of top end free hits with JUH and Darcy.

Just my take and others might not agree but if so how does a team that drafts so well (according to original poster) not have a better list than ours?

 

[Juddernaut08]

A lot of pining for SDK going on. Yes he's better than Young, but Weiters + Young is still a damn solid KPD combination.

I'm more annoyed that we've thrown so much draft capital at wings and small forwards, yet we still don't have those positions sorted out (the eternal optimist hopes acres + lob + durdin + motlop work out, but it's still unproven).

 

[Juddernaut08]

And yet I would argue that our list is in better shape than that of the bulldogs despite original poster telling us how much better their strike rate is than ours and despite them getting a couple of top end free hits with JUH and Darcy.

Just my take and others might not agree but if so how does a team that drafts so well (according to original poster) not have a better list than ours?

Dogs have had a better strike rate if you think about strike = avoiding misses.

We've done really well though to get in genuine stars. 2015 isn't good just because we didn't miss...we drafted 3 of our top 5 players (I'd argue our top 5 is Cripps, Walsh, Curnow, Weitering, McKay)...I know Doch and Saad are good too but I'd have them behind those 5.

 

[Stamos]

He has been at the club for 5 years. What was his role before that?

He was List Manager prior to 2020

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Wonder if we could get Nick Haynes

26

Nick Haynes

Age

32

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

6.2

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

326.8

4star

D

17.4

4star

K

13.9

5star

HB

3.5

2star

M

8.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

MG

326.8

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

cheaply ?
Good solid player who would definitely fill a need for us.

 

[Earls Smother]

And yet I would argue that our list is in better shape than that of the bulldogs despite original poster telling us how much better their strike rate is than ours and despite them getting a couple of top end free hits with JUH and Darcy.

Just my take and others might not agree but if so how does a team that drafts so well (according to original poster) not have a better list than ours?

You and I are only really interested in discussing Carlton. I'm not going to defend another poster re the Bulldogs.

We do have a good list, largely because of Cripps, 2015 draft and good trading. It just could be so much better (and success would have come quicker) if we had got some of those midfield first rounders right.

If Dow didn't work, we shouldn't have needed Cerra. We should have been able to slot one of the blokes I just mentioned above into that role.

 

[Sector 7G]

I know we were probably after run around the midfield but that was a result of Samo / Dow / LOB / etc. not really working - which again is poor recruiting.

We slid back from the pick where we could have taken Kozy Pickett (to get Kemp+Philp) and then the very next year declared we needed a small forward and went for Durdin. So any way you cut the recruiting since 2015 has been patchy at best.

Just as an example the Dogs 2016 draft wins from 6 picks:
19 Timothy English
28 Patrick Lipinski
49 Lewis Young

9 Aaron Naughton
16 Ed Richards
25 (r) Roarke Smith

6 from 11 players taken - 55% hit rate versus our 18%.

From a Dogs perspective
2016
19 ok
28 - Couldn't get a game traded for less - bust
49 - Couldn't get a game in preferred position - traded for less - bust (Good player for Carlton though)

2017
9 Great selection
16 -Juries out going about as well as LOB (who pulled his pants down in round 2) Just OK
25 (r) - Just a player - OK for a rookie but his spot could be filled by anyone.

2.5 from 11 for me

Kozy was a big reach by the Dees. Kemp was the 3rd rated player at the end of the Champs. Not too many were upset by the pick of Kemp at the time.

 

[Sector 7G]

Wonder if we could get Nick Haynes cheaply ?
Good solid player who would definitely fill a need for us.

Just what we need another 3rd tall defender. We could have the tallest back 6 in history. The position we have way too much cover in.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

A lot of pining for SDK going on. Yes he's better than Young, but Weiters + Young is still a damn solid KPD combination.

I'm more annoyed that we've thrown so much draft capital at wings and small forwards, yet we still don't have those positions sorted out (the eternal optimist hopes acres + lob + durdin + motlop work out, but it's still unproven).

Is he better than Young?

Geelong are a better team presently, won't argue that.... and Sam is younger, but

Sam De Koning and Lewis Young AFL Stats Comparison

Sam De Koning and Lewis Young AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

IN HINDSIGHT SDK was the the better pick. But even then, reality is that you can’t fit 22 superstars in a salary cap. Quote content with Weitering/Young but would also like Kemp to show a bit this year

 

[iAsbestos]

Is he better than Young?

Geelong are a better team presently, won't argue that.... and Sam is younger, but

Sam De Koning and Lewis Young AFL Stats Comparison

Sam De Koning and Lewis Young AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Absolutely better than young

 

[macky99]

Wonder if we could get Nick Haynes cheaply ?
Good solid player who would definitely fill a need for us.

How does Nick Haynes fill a need for us?

We already have many similar type tall defenders, l would suggest this would not be a need for us.

 

[Beyond Blue]

He was List Manager prior to 2020

Wasn’t SOS list manager before Austin?

 

[NavySteel]

A lot of pining for SDK going on. Yes he's better than Young, but Weiters + Young is still a damn solid KPD combination.

I'm more annoyed that we've thrown so much draft capital at wings and small forwards, yet we still don't have those positions sorted out (the eternal optimist hopes acres + lob + durdin + motlop work out, but it's still unproven).

Not taking anything away from the skills, but... Feel like SDK wouldn't have had the year he did if it was at any team other than Geelong. Great system at that club and allows players to thrive.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Dogs have had a better strike rate if you think about strike = avoiding misses.

We've done really well though to get in genuine stars. 2015 isn't good just because we didn't miss...we drafted 3 of our top 5 players (I'd argue our top 5 is Cripps, Walsh, Curnow, Weitering, McKay)...I know Doch and Saad are good too but I'd have them behind those 5.

That's pretty much my argument. It's not the % of draft hits that matters (doesn't absolve the misses) but rather the quality. Five genuine stars that you can build your team around is better than 10 o.k. players.

Collingwood list management strategy has been abysmal to the extent that they are likely paying $600k per annum for players to play against them. However they are going o.k.

See many parts to the building a team.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Wonder if we could get Nick Haynes cheaply ?
Good solid player who would definitely fill a need for us.

I wouldn't have thought he'd be cheap, or that he'd fill an area of need