Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[Monte Carlo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hoping those of you that have Pendlebury near the top are on the money. I'm on him with a Pies flag to win $6100 - and we'd have to be a good chance to at least make the granny so I can lay off if necessary.

mate i really think he can win. polled 13 last year from 20 games. i think he will poll better than swan again this year, plus the pies should win more games than last year (2009 - 15w 7l). he will also be a good bet for the team multi's cos everyone just seems to love swan, and continue to dump coin on him.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I wouldn't call that a spray from Black. More just frustration. I would assume he spoke with the upmost respect as well, as that is how he always presents himself to the umps.

If anyone hasn't seen it, just load up the game through Bigpond Video and look at the last minute and a half. Happened very close to the finish.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I'd call it a spray

Simon Black can also accept a $1950 fine for using abusive language towards umpire Matthew Nicholls after the final siren in the Lions’ one-point loss to the Kangaroos on Saturday night.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/95875/default.aspx

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I'd call it a spray



http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/95875/default.aspx

Surprising, but the gald goon deserved it.

Ridiculous call when he was blindsided and 25m from the play.

 

[s1bbald]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

In my limited experience, I believe there is a bit of value in the following team leaders at Centrebet: Swallow($6.50), Wells ($9), Goodes ($6 :O), Lecras ($10 - yet to do much that would grab votes, but not a huge margin to gap), Pavlich ($3.75), Mundy ($15), Pendlebury ($5.50), Ball ($10). But I'm not doing my own count. What do others think?

 

[ShamWow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Here you go guys, thought tis would interest MANY!!!!!!

ChrisB: Welcome to Sportsbet.com.au how can I help you today?
M: when are you releasing most team votes for Brownlow and leader for half way mark
ChrisB: It will be by the end of the week
M: will you be able to multi most team votes?
ChrisB: Yes you should be able to
M: and Most team votes will be up by end of week you reckon?
M: hello? Will the Most Team Votes for Brownlow medal be up by the end of the week
ChrisB: I cant confirm that bet option at the moment. Can you contact sportsbet tommorrow
Michael: are you able to get them to email in regards to this bet option please and whether it can be multi'd. Thanks
ChrisB: Im finding out now. just hold 1 min
ChrisB: they isnt going to be a bet option for brownlow leaders for half way but there will be team learders for the end result
Michael: cool. and that can be multi'd and will be up by end of week? correct?
ChrisB: Yes they can be multied but it wont be up untill later on in the year
Michael: thanks

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I think Boyd, NicNat, Swallow, Pendles and even Judd are value for their clubs on Centrebet. Most of the markets have been sorted out now, Scott Thompson into $3 for the Crows, was still at $15 a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I'd call it a spray



http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/95875/default.aspx

My view is that it's bad news for my old mate Simon Black. He Obviously used pretty bad language etc. The umps talk and will all be onto what happened. Remember James Hird spraying an ump on the footy years back, getting a big fine by the AFL and then he came out and played his best game of the year and got 0 votes ! The umps then turned right of him.
Blacky is gone this year anyway and I'd say that J Brown will win most at Bris anyway unless that groin keeps troubling him.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yep, got on Thompson at $14, chucked a $20 on about a month ago. If his form from Saturday continues he should be a very good chance to top the Adelaide votes.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Surprising, but the gald goon deserved it.

Ridiculous call when he was blindsided and 25m from the play.

Couldn't agree more, terrible decision.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i took travis boak at the $501 in round 1, curious to get thoughts on how he might be polling? would have thought possible votes yesterday, and looked to have polled in other games, particularly the melb loss.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

hey guys,
havent posted on here for a long time, but thought i should re enter the fray.
did very nicely at brownlow last year, like many others big thanks to bk and others like athomas for their extensive posting. mates though i was crazy saying hayes most votes for saints, but i guess they're not in the big footy loop.

have only put on two bets this year. have coin on bartel at $26 and pendlebury at $67 both to win about 1k.

few comments on this so far. i must say people seem to have changed their own voting strategies this year to more reflect an umpires point of view; which is good to see. i think in previous years sentiment and bias has crept in and altered some posters votes negatively. this is not so much the case this year. (although i would watch mick barlow - who people seem to be dishing votes left right and centre)

with the afl seeming to be more even this year, i think the winner will pole in the low to mid 20's and the top of the leaderboard will be packed like 2003.
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/brownlow/brownlow2003.html

in regards to people's worries about multi-ing club leaders, i don't think there is need to panic. we must remember that the people here on bigfooty who post and research almost everyday are in the minority. there are thousands who go to their local pub and dump coin on their favourite player or multi 10 club leaders at $1.2 and lose (think swan, cox, reiwoldt 2008, ablett 2007) which would make the TAB a killing. they probably only need one or two of these a year and would come out on top.

as a uni student studying statistics ive employed hedging the last couple of years and some other maths to come out on top. alot of my bets come in a similar form as a parlay when betting on the nags. it takes a long time at the tab terminal but worth it. last year me and some mates stayed at crown on brownlow night and had a ball. we met heaps of the players afterwards and i bought bernie vince a beer for the lovely 3 votes he got in the last game to get some bets over the line. i also met leigh brown from coll'wood. and yes he is as big of a c*nt in real life as he is on the field.

I agree that I'm pretty sure that the TAB ( Vic / NSW ) will offer multis on the club votes etc. by around rnd 17. However, I don't agree that they make money on doing so. All of us took far too much off them and it would take stacks of the lazy $10 bets for them to break even.
Fortunately for all of us, they make billions anyway and are probably hopeful that upsets can happen to hurt us....e.g. Swan losing Collingwood, Deledio the useless hack at Richmond, Mitchell at Hawthorn, Riewoldt 2 years ago etc. etc.
If a Judd, Ablett etc was to miss the most at the club the TAB would think that they would get us all.
The word is that they cannot assess / track their exposure on multis ( any type on any sport ) and they let them ride. With this strategy they probably win a fair bit off all the mugs just by allowing them. e.g horse racing doubles etc...

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yep, got on Thompson at $14, chucked a $20 on about a month ago. If his form from Saturday continues he should be a very good chance to top the Adelaide votes.

The umps love him and I have him chalked in as a potential lock if he keeps going well.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i took travis boak at the $501 in round 1, curious to get thoughts on how he might be polling? would have thought possible votes yesterday, and looked to have polled in other games, particularly the melb loss.

Steer clear from Port I reckon. Boak is a risky one IMO and I have Rodan on 6 as the leader there.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hoping those of you that have Pendlebury near the top are on the money. I'm on him with a Pies flag to win $6100 - and we'd have to be a good chance to at least make the granny so I can lay off if necessary.

I like Pendlebury to knock over Swan again at the most votes at Coll but it's hard to see him winning the medal. It's a good bet that you have going though and like you I have my top fancies into Geel and Coll with the plan to offlay if required.

 

[You Beauty!]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Some people haven't given him a vote, but Judd may get 2 for his game against the Dees. Who knows, he may even get 3. He confirmed the win for his team early in the 4th after the Dees came back to worry us in the 3rd quarter. Looked like great leadership stuff to me, as it was when it counted, which is something the umps might look favourably to. Yes Houla kicked 4 and looked very good all day, but it was Judd pumping it long from the centre that created the opportunity for him to kick his 4th. The 4th quarter was when the game was to be won. Opportunity was there. Judd decided the result. Will be interesting to see if this quarter shapes the half season leader bet.
I was at the game and have sinced watched the replay. I think he will be 2 votes. Interested in BK's take on it.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Some people haven't given him a vote, but Judd may get 2 for his game against the Dees. Who knows, he may even get 3. He confirmed the win for his team early in the 4th after the Dees came back to worry us in the 3rd quarter. Looked like great leadership stuff to me, as it was when it counted, which is something the umps might look favourably to. Yes Houla kicked 4 and looked very good all day, but it was Judd pumping it long from the centre that created the opportunity for him to kick his 4th. The 4th quarter was when the game was to be won. Opportunity was there. Judd decided the result. Will be interesting to see if this quarter shapes the half season leader bet.
I was at the game and have sinced watched the replay. I think he will be 2 votes. Interested in BK's take on it.

Good timing re my take as I just finished watching the last quarter of the Carl-Melb game. I have not watched the first 3 qtrs but know that he had 4, 5 and then 5 possessions. I did actually watch most of the 1st qtr on Sat and his touches were high on quality.
His last quarter was fantastic and he was clearly the best player on the ground in that quarter. The goal from the boundary throw in was icing on the cake. If he was a racehorse you'd call him a mudlark for sure !
Now the interesting point is to determine where a just OK 3 quarters plus a massive final quarter rates with the umps votes.
We can rule out any Melb players due to the margin and the fact that none of them had massive stats.
The good news is that there is no Murphy or Gibbs anywhere in the best players so 2 key points in Judd's favor.
There seem to be 4 players, outside of Judd who can get votes and all have major negatives.
1. Walker - has only had 6 career votes and this is his 7th year. Whilst he's obv been injured a fair bit over the past 2 years he is a risk to poll with 25 poss.
2. Robinson - has never polled even though this is only his 2nd year he's a risk to poll
3. Waite - 16 career votes and only 1 in 2009, 5 in 2008 ( he did have 16 poss and 3 goals for 0 votes and 17 poss and 3 goals for 1 vote last year )
4. Houlihan - 6 career votes in 11 years speaks for itself and his last votes were in 2006

These guys are up against Judd for votes who has had 132 career votes, has won a medal and not less than 15 in the past 6 seasons.
I'd say that Judd gets votes and the question is how many. I'm going to give him 1 simply as the umps may steer off him due to his first 3 quarters but he certainly could get 2 or even 3. He's only 3 poss off the leading Carlton player. I've got no idea who the other 2 guys to get votes will be, maybe Houlihan and Walker.

Sometimes process of elimination like this really works I reckon. What do you guys think of my views ???

 

[fridge21]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Some people haven't given him a vote, but Judd may get 2 for his game against the Dees. Who knows, he may even get 3. He confirmed the win for his team early in the 4th after the Dees came back to worry us in the 3rd quarter. Looked like great leadership stuff to me, as it was when it counted, which is something the umps might look favourably to. Yes Houla kicked 4 and looked very good all day, but it was Judd pumping it long from the centre that created the opportunity for him to kick his 4th. The 4th quarter was when the game was to be won. Opportunity was there. Judd decided the result. Will be interesting to see if this quarter shapes the half season leader bet.
I was at the game and have sinced watched the replay. I think he will be 2 votes. Interested in BK's take on it.

totally agree, Judd will definately get 2-3 votes in my opinion. Was at the game and he was the reason we pulled away again after the Melbourne 3rd qtr comeback. Whilst everyone else was slipping and fumbling he took the p eye double ess and dominated the first 20 minutes of the last qtr.

 

[You Beauty!]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Sometimes process of elimination like this really works I reckon. What do you guys think of my views ???

No doubt everyone will be reading your views BK so the more detail the better, which you have done. I wouldn't think Waite would get votes in a game he was reported; wouldn't seem right in a best and fairest award, even though the report was dropped, but the umps wouldn't have known at the time how bad it was. I think I will stick with Judd getting 2, Houla the 3, Walker 1

Also looking forward to poster Walker The Star's take on that game. Enjoy his descriptions of each week on his website.

 

[mattbombers]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

totally agree, Judd will definately get 2-3 votes in my opinion. Was at the game and he was the reason we pulled away again after the Melbourne 3rd qtr comeback. Whilst everyone else was slipping and fumbling he took the p eye double ess and dominated the first 20 minutes of the last qtr.

It's interesting to note that Judd didn't receive a single vote from either coach for this game and they give best out of 5. I do understand though how Judd stands out and is loved by the umps.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yep, got on Thompson at $14, chucked a $20 on about a month ago. If his form from Saturday continues he should be a very good chance to top the Adelaide votes.

I'm on this as well

Surprised he's come in so quickly, although everyone on this thread spotted the value a few weeks ago.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hodge, Swan, Cooney, Goddard all too short for the brownlow imo. $1.60 is probably a bit over you're right.



Just noticed that too. Will definitely rule him out for any votes on Saturday. Not sure if it will effect him too much, but would be interesting to see.

I dont mind Cooney for WBD most team votes im 99.9% sure Cooney or Boyd will win and Cooney is at $3.50 with Boyd at $3.75 so its a profit anyway you look at it. I agree for the brownlow outright though Hodge,Swan,Cooney,Goddard, JB, Sandilands all far to short.

As for Judd i have him penciled in for 1.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I dont mind Cooney for WBD most team votes im 99.9% sure Cooney or Boyd will win and Cooney is at $3.50 with Boyd at $3.75 so its a profit anyway you look at it. I agree for the brownlow outright though Hodge,Swan,Cooney,Goddard, JB, Sandilands all far to short.

As for Judd i have him penciled in for 1.

Yeah I should have clarified, I meant for the brownlow outright too.

Between Ablett, Judd, Hayes, Pavlich imo (Barlow perhaps as well, who knows.)

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I dont mind Cooney for WBD most team votes im 99.9% sure Cooney or Boyd will win and Cooney is at $3.50 with Boyd at $3.75 so its a profit anyway you look at it. I agree for the brownlow outright though Hodge,Swan,Cooney,Goddard, JB, Sandilands all far to short.

As for Judd i have him penciled in for 1.

Willing to write off Griffen? I think he's the value at the dogs right now. I have Cooney just infront of him, but if the markets where open right now I think i'd be having a nibble at Cooney and Griffen and risking Boyd.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

some great posts by everyone in the last 24 hours, especially that news about Sportsbet, if that chat person was correct in what he / she was talking about.

BK, i like your objective view on simon black and i agree that he may be in a bit of trouble for the rest of the year to win Brisbane's votes. It will be interesting to see how the inconsistent t johnstone travels to see if he can finally back a 30 + possession game up. my guess is he won't, especially against the bulldogs but we will see.

For what its worth, my votes for the carlton game were
3. houlihan, 2. robinson and 1 judd.

Your analysis of judd seems spot on BK and i have come to the same conclusion. The reason i have robinson for two because he did have quite a few clean contested possessions (+ noticeable blonde hair & hard running type player) and i used a similar process of eliminaton to discount waite (reported, semi quiet second half in comparison to the first) and walker (just doesn't seem to be a player who grabs the attention of the game and many ordinary possessios + neve been a vote getter as you've said)