Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Elmer_Hauser]

Pendles hasnt gone past anyone. He aint in top 10 mids. Pendles was never good enough to be the best mid in the game. he just never reached that level. As such he is behind ablett, judd, dangerfield, fyfe, hird, voss, martin, r.harvey, bontempelli and probably oliver, cripps and petracca.

pendlebury is on j.selwoods level.

For longevity and consistency, Pendles is above Jelwood imo

 

[Caligo]

If zero 20 and 2's is fact, and it is, then "not in the conversation" is clearly pure fiction. Because you are participating in a very long and involved conversation about it.

Mockery isn't conversation.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Mockery isn't conversation.

Good, another obsessed troll outs himself as not to be taken seriously.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I phrased it in every response, that the claim early career Martin outscored peak Chapman is just a silly statement.

Your Martin/Frankin "gotcha" is similarly ludicrous.

Over their first four seasons Martin averaged in the low 30s for combined goals/assists while Franklin averaged 70.5. And its not even a slight on Martin as one was a roaming key forward and one was an attacking midfielder/forward hybrid. But you make yourself look like a moron with these logical stretches that equate Martin Vs Franklin year 2 only a better sample than the first four years of their career combined.

It would be like using Franklin 2008 vs Martin 2010 to highlight the gap. Impressive on paper but weak once you see how cherry picked these one off comparisons can be.

Early career Martin didn’t our score Chappy … but first six season Martin .. including his debut season as an 18yo, wasn’t far off peak Chappy (2006-2011), which is quite extraordinary given Martin was drafted to a bottom team rabble and Chappy’s peak was playing mostly forward in a 98-28 win dynasty:

Martin 2010-15 v Chappy 2006-2011:

Disposals: 23.45 v 23.91
Goals: 1.08 v 1.40
GA’s: 0.56 v 0.80
I50’s: 4.02 v 4.55
Contested: 8.34 v 7.46
Clearances: 3.35 v 2.75
Tackles: 3.14 v 3.73
Brownlow: 0.57 v 0.50
Coaches: 1.89 v 2.47

And scale back a few pages to see peak Dusty v peak Chappy (both in dynasty teams at peak age) was a bit of a bloodbath.

Doesn’t mean Chappy wasn’t a gun… he was. At his peak he was around the mark of Dusty as an 18-23yo in a pretty rank team.


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[Meteoric Rise]

I phrased it in every response, that the claim early career Martin outscored peak Chapman is just a silly statement.

Your Martin/Frankin "gotcha" is similarly ludicrous.

Over their first four seasons Martin averaged in the low 30s for combined goals/assists while Franklin averaged 70.5. And its not even a slight on Martin as one was a roaming key forward and one was an attacking midfielder/forward hybrid. But you make yourself look like a moron with these logical stretches that equate Martin Vs Franklin year 2 only a better sample than the first four years of their career combined.

It would be like using Franklin 2008 vs Martin 2010 to highlight the gap. Impressive on paper but weak once you see how cherry picked these one off comparisons can be.

I didn't make any logical stretch. I simply listed some facts. The logical stretches have all been made by you.

But I see in typical fashion you have evaded the question as to how many elite seasons Dustin Martin has played and whether his second season was elite or not. It is not like they are difficult questions to consider, or irrelevant to the thread.

As per usual you attempt to sidetrack with nonsense.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I didn't make any logical stretch. I simply listed some facts. The logical stretches have all been made by you.

But I see in typical fashion you have evaded the question as to how many elite seasons Dustin Martin has played and whether his second season was elite or not. It is not like they are difficult questions to consider, or irrelevant to the thread.

As per usual you attempt to sidetrack with nonsense.

Of course Martin’s second season averaging 22 / 1.5 wasn’t elite …. the only reason no player has done it in the last 6-years is because nobody plays the role of a ball winner who would ideally kick some goals . It’s a role the coaches of today aren’t really implementing …. they’d much rather their mids accumulate back of centre -

I wonder if a player was good enough to average 22 and kick 1.5 goals per week over the last 6-years they’d do it ? Or would their coach advise them to accumulate more ball and kick less goals ?

Geez the coaches of the last 6-years are a weird bunch.


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[H00t]

Of course Martin’s second season averaging 22 / 1.5 wasn’t elite …. the only reason no player has done it in the last 6-years is because nobody plays the role of a ball winner who would ideally kick some goals . It’s a role the coaches of today aren’t really implementing …. they’d much rather their mids accumulate back of centre -

I wonder if a player was good enough to average 22 and kick 1.5 goals per week over the last 6-years they’d do it ? Or would their coach advise them to accumulate more ball and kick less goals ?

Geez the coaches of the last 6-years are a weird bunch.


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So elite that he didn’t make the All-Australian squad of 40.

As for the best mids, they generally play in the middle, around the ball. Better to have them getting as much of the ball as possible.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So elite that he didn’t make the All-Australian squad of 40.

As for the best mids, they generally play in the middle, around the ball. Better to have them getting as much of the ball as possible.

The 2011 Lol Australian team.

Essendon make finals no AA squad selection. North finish below them, 4 AA squad selections.

The bottom 6 teams had 3 players in the squad BETWEEN them.

Ablett Jnr, Deledio, Scott Thompson.

3 of the bottom 6 got no squad selection.

Dusty would have clearly needed to be in the best 3-4 players in the bottom 6 clubs in his second year to get selected.

 

[Mr Meow]

I didn't make any logical stretch. I simply listed some facts. The logical stretches have all been made by you.

But I see in typical fashion you have evaded the question as to how many elite seasons Dustin Martin has played and whether his second season was elite or not. It is not like they are difficult questions to consider, or irrelevant to the thread.

As per usual you attempt to sidetrack with nonsense.

Only in your world would a one off 14 game season from Franklin vs a 22 game season from Martin be a more reliable comparison than taking the first 4 years of their career combined. I'm struggling to see how you could more clearly display agenda based, misleading cherry picking. But this is you we're talking about.

How many elite seasons? 2.90 coaches votes per game seems a pretty good cut off for midfielders. Note I didn't pick an arbitrary cut off point that would best suit Ablett, as this would actually be up at 3.3 per game.

Based on this Martin has had 5 elite seasons and that is how many AA selections he should have. 14 games (shortest amount we've seen for AA) minimum.

9 Ablett
8 Pendlebury
7 Dangerfield, S.Mitchell, Selwood
6 Bontempelli*
5 Martin, Fyfe, Swan, J.Kennedy
4 Neale*, Oliver*, Petracca*, Merrett*, Beams
3 Cotchin, Watson, Boak, Gray, Hannebery, Cripps*

Judd would've probably landed 7 - 2004 would've met the threshold, 2005 was a maybe.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Only in your world would a one off 14 game season from Franklin vs a 22 game season from Martin be a more reliable comparison than taking the first 4 years of their career combined. I'm struggling to see how you could more clearly display agenda based, misleading cherry picking. But this is you we're talking about.

How many elite seasons? 2.90 coaches votes per game seems a pretty good cut off for midfielders. Note I didn't pick an arbitrary cut off point that would best suit Ablett, as this would actually be up at 3.3 per game.

Based on this Martin has had 5 elite seasons and that is how many AA selections he should have. 14 games (shortest amount we've seen for AA) minimum.

9 Ablett
8 Pendlebury
7 Dangerfield, S.Mitchell, Selwood
6 Bontempelli*
5 Martin, Fyfe, Swan, J.Kennedy
4 Neale*, Oliver*, Petracca*, Merrett*, Beams
3 Cotchin, Watson, Boak, Gray, Hannebery, Cripps*

Judd would've probably landed 7 - 2004 would've met the threshold, 2005 was a maybe.

So for this debate Martin to you is a bonafide ‘midfielder’. But in loads of other posts where Martin’s scoreboard impact is streets ahead of other midfielders you make it very very clear Martin is not just a midfielder.

For example 2023 Martin was second in the competition for player ratings and coaches votes for small/medium forwards behind Toby Greene. ‘Elite’ is being ranked in the top-10% of your position. So you don’t rank Martin’s 2023 as an elite season which it clearly was based on position.

Then in 2011 he averaged 22 and kicks 1.5 goals per game. The next highest goal averages from disposal winning players were Swan and Beams around 1.3. But again, despite clearly being in the top couple of players in his position you don’t rate it elite.


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[Mr Meow]

So for this debate Martin to you is a bonafide ‘midfielder’. But in loads of other posts where Martin’s scoreboard impact is streets ahead of other midfielders you make it very very clear Martin is not just a midfielder.

For example 2023 Martin was second in the competition for player ratings and coaches votes for small/medium forwards behind Toby Greene. ‘Elite’ is being ranked in the top-10% of your position. So you don’t rank Martin’s 2023 as an elite season which it clearly was based on position.

Then in 2011 he averaged 22 and kicks 1.5 goals per game. The next highest goal averages from disposal winning players were Swan and Beams around 1.3. But again, despite clearly being in the top couple of players in his position you don’t rate it elite.


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Waiting on MR's response, which it seems he is incapable of, unless he is deferring all rebuttals to you as was earlier the case? Then I can get to yours.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Only in your world would a one off 14 game season from Franklin vs a 22 game season from Martin be a more reliable comparison than taking the first 4 years of their career combined. I'm struggling to see how you could more clearly display agenda based, misleading cherry picking. But this is you we're talking about.

How many elite seasons? 2.90 coaches votes per game seems a pretty good cut off for midfielders. Note I didn't pick an arbitrary cut off point that would best suit Ablett, as this would actually be up at 3.3 per game.

Based on this Martin has had 5 elite seasons and that is how many AA selections he should have. 14 games (shortest amount we've seen for AA) minimum.

9 Ablett
8 Pendlebury
7 Dangerfield, S.Mitchell, Selwood
6 Bontempelli*
5 Martin, Fyfe, Swan, J.Kennedy
4 Neale*, Oliver*, Petracca*, Merrett*, Beams
3 Cotchin, Watson, Boak, Gray, Hannebery, Cripps*

Judd would've probably landed 7 - 2004 would've met the threshold, 2005 was a maybe.

You are tilting at windmills as usual.

I posted a hand selected one year comparison as a humorous part of a conversation with a Hawthorn supporter who was being silly, and drew no conclusions whatsoever. It seems this has sent you into total meltdown.

Your 2.9 coaches vote average is:

1. totally arbitrary on your part with no explanation at all as to why it "seems a pretty good cutoff for midfielders"
2. totally reliant on only one measure of a payer's performance
3. obviously heavily tilted against a player who spends significant time playing different roles in the forward line, such that 2 of the most valuable 3 players of the last generation by contract size, Martin, Ablett, Franklin would not have their value accurately reflected
4. does not take into account the most important matches - finals, in which of course Martin has been the best player by your measure, coaches votes, by so far it is embarrassing, and if we could somehow impute coaches votes for the years prior to 2016 that would not change.

If Champion Data's "elite" description of the top 10% in a position is accepted, then Martin would be considered elite in all bar 2 seasons, his debut season as an 18yo, and his badly interrupted 2022 season when he had well publicised difficulties including injury. If you think that 10% in every line is too many players to define elite, and just say went for the top 10% of players in the AFL in any given season. You would then say the top 40 players in the competition each season are elite. By player ratings, Martin fits within that figure in the following seasons(excluding players under 10 games):

2023 - 34th
2021 - 7th
2020 - 6th
2019 - 4th
2018 - 6th
2017 - 1st
2016 - 41st, 3rd coaches votes, 3rd Brownlow.
2015 - 44th
2012 - 46th
2011 - no ratings but would certainly have been top 40

So we can see 5 seasons there where he is in the top 7 player ratings in the AFL. Another 2 seasons, 2023 and almost certainly 2011, he was well within the top 40. And another 3 just outside the top 40. So we are up to 7 elite seasons by defining elite as the top 10% of players in the AFL. Then another 3 seasons where he barely misses the top 10%. In one of those seasons outside the top 10% in the player ratings, 2016, Martin finished 3rd in the Brownlow Medal and 3rd in the coaches votes. It would be difficult to argue that was not an elite season.

The 6 years I have bolded are clearly elite by any reasonable definition. 2011 and 2023 Martin was right at the top end for his position, and rated within the top 10% of players in the AFL. These are elite seasons, though perhaps more marginally elite than the bolded seasons. Then we see seasons like 2015 where he was 14th in coaches votes and 7th in the Brownlow Medal. 2014 he was 25th in the Brownlow Medal and similar in the coaches votes. 2013 he was 14th Brownlow Medal and 19th in the coaches MVP. You are defining all these seasons as not elite.

You could fairly define the vast majority of Martin's seasons as elite one way or another by saying approximately the top 10% of AFL players are elite. Or you could really tighten the definition of elite and say only maybe the top 10 most valuable players in the AFL are elite. That way you could fairly say only 6 of his seasons are elite. You have predictably come up with a figure below 6, somehow.

 

[Mr Meow]

You are tilting at windmills as usual.

I posted a hand selected one year comparison as a humorous part of a conversation with a Hawthorn supporter who was being silly, and drew no conclusions whatsoever. It seems this has sent you into total meltdown.

Your 2.9 coaches vote average is:

1. totally arbitrary on your part with no explanation at all as to why it "seems a pretty good cutoff for midfielders"
2. totally reliant on only one measure of a payer's performance
3. obviously heavily tilted against a player who spends significant time playing different roles in the forward line, such that 2 of the most valuable 3 players of the last generation by contract size, Martin, Ablett, Franklin would not have their value accurately reflected
4. does not take into account the most important matches - finals, in which of course Martin has been the best player by your measure, coaches votes, by so far it is embarrassing, and if we could somehow impute coaches votes for the years prior to 2016 that would not change.

If Champion Data's "elite" description of the top 10% in a position is accepted, then Martin would be considered elite in all bar 2 seasons, his debut season as an 18yo, and his badly interrupted 2022 season when he had well publicised difficulties including injury. If you think that 10% in every line is too many players to define elite, and just say went for the top 10% of players in the AFL in any given season. You would then say the top 40 players in the competition each season are elite. By player ratings, Martin fits within that figure in the following seasons(excluding players under 10 games):

2023 - 34th
2021 - 7th
2020 - 6th
2019 - 4th
2018 - 6th
2017 - 1st
2016 - 41st, 3rd coaches votes, 3rd Brownlow.
2015 - 44th
2012 - 46th
2011 - no ratings but would certainly have been top 40

So we can see 5 seasons there where he is in the top 7 player ratings in the AFL. Another 2 seasons, 2023 and almost certainly 2011, he was well within the top 40. And another 3 just outside the top 40. So we are up to 7 elite seasons by defining elite as the top 10% of players in the AFL. Then another 3 seasons where he barely misses the top 10%. In one of those seasons outside the top 10% in the player ratings, 2016, Martin finished 3rd in the Brownlow Medal and 3rd in the coaches votes. It would be difficult to argue that was not an elite season.

The 6 years I have bolded are clearly elite by any reasonable definition. 2011 and 2023 Martin was right at the top end for his position, and rated within the top 10% of players in the AFL. These are elite seasons, though perhaps more marginally elite than the bolded seasons. Then we see seasons like 2015 where he was 14th in coaches votes and 7th in the Brownlow Medal. 2014 he was 25th in the Brownlow Medal and similar in the coaches votes. 2013 he was 14th Brownlow Medal and 19th in the coaches MVP. You are defining all these seasons as not elite.

You could fairly define the vast majority of Martin's seasons as elite one way or another by saying approximately the top 10% of AFL players are elite. Or you could really tighten the definition of elite and say only maybe the top 10 most valuable players in the AFL are elite. That way you could fairly say only 6 of his seasons are elite. You have predictably come up with a figure below 6, somehow.

2.9 matches pretty well with actual AA selections for midfielders. When I listed the names in each category I don't feel like there were crazy results. Martin has a right skewed distribution when it came to coaches votes averages compared to his contemporaries. Meaning his peak may have reached greater heights compared to some, but his highs were further apart from his lows.

2011 and 2023 he was still an ultra attacking midfielder or a high half forward acting as an extra midfielder. He wasn't the Ablett 2019 or Walters 2023 forward pocket who pushed up to the 50. He had one AA top 44 selection between those seasons, and none making the final 22, which feels about right.

5 elite seasons is an incredible achievement. Especially being timed so nicely with a dominant sides peak in which his finals were outstanding. That's his ceiling. It's very, very good. It just isn't at that next level up with the best. This is how the neutrals decided it - Martin around Hird and Buckley level, but below Ablett, Judd, Franklin and some others.

Celebrate it for what the masses do. A damn fine 8/10 career. Not an 8.5, 9. 9.5, or 10/10.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Waiting on MR's response, which it seems he is incapable of, unless he is deferring all rebuttals to you as was earlier the case? Then I can get to yours.

It would be interesting to put together a set of criteria that may indicate an ‘elite’ season. For example, irrespective of any other metrics, I’d suggest making the final AA team means you’ve had an elite season. Or winning your team’s B&F. Or finishing top-5 in coaches votes. Or top-5 in Brownlow. Top-5 in goals kicked. Top-5 in player ratings and so on. There are probably some things if they are achieved mean it’s an elite season regardless of anything else.

Then there’s perhaps other things where if you achieve 75% of them then it’s ‘elite’. Eg. Top-5 in B&F. Top-10 for your position in Brownlow/Coaches votes/ player ratings, making AA squad, elite stats etc…. so whilst a player might finish 8th in their B&F, if they achieve majority of other metrics it still might be an elite year. For example someone like Stevie J never finished top-5 in his team’s B&F … but I’m certain he had at least 4-5 x elite seasons for the position he played.

Probably futile as nobody will ever agree on the criteria.


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[Meteoric Rise]

2.9 matches pretty well with actual AA selections for midfielders. When I listed the names in each category I don't feel like there were crazy results. Martin has a right skewed distribution when it came to coaches votes averages compared to his contemporaries. Meaning his peak may have reached greater heights compared to some, but his highs were further apart from his lows.

2011 and 2023 he was still an ultra attacking midfielder or a high half forward acting as an extra midfielder. He wasn't the Ablett 2019 or Walters 2023 forward pocket who pushed up to the 50. He had one AA top 44 selection between those seasons, and none making the final 22, which feels about right.

5 elite seasons is an incredible achievement. Especially being timed so nicely with a dominant sides peak in which his finals were outstanding. That's his ceiling. It's very, very good. It just isn't at that next level up with the best. This is how the neutrals decided it - Martin around Hird and Buckley level, but below Ablett, Judd, Franklin and some others.

Celebrate it for what the masses do. A damn fine 8/10 career. Not an 8.5, 9. 9.5, or 10/10.

You have descended to pure comedy. But let me answer as if you were actually being serious.

A player rated by the most authoritative ratings available as the fourth best forward in the AFL - as Martin was in 2023 - is not elite according to you. His 2011 season was on at least a similar level, again, you are saying is not an elite AFL season. What you seem to be saying is only 3 or less forwards each season are elite AFL performers. Which would mean you would be saying only 3 defenders are likely to be elite each season, because to have more elite defenders than forwards wouldn't make sense. So this would limit your definition of elite to any midfielders who get about 60+ coaches votes and 6 other players. So in 2023 you are saying players like Taranto, Viney, Newcombe and Tim Kelly are elite, but players like Martin, Charlie Cameron, and defenders Sam Taylor, Harris Andrews, Darcy Moore, Tom Stewart and Callum Wilkie were not elite. The last 4 of those were selected in the final AA team.

So your definition of elite seems to produce something around or below 20 footballers per season. Roughly one per club. But you are also excluding almost all the forwards and defenders who happen to win club B & F's because they are not in the top 3 forwards or defenders in the AFL.

But fair enough, the top 1 payer per club is elite according to you it seems. By that definition your 5 elite seasons could be vaguely correct for Dusty.

Your trouble then is he has about at least another 5 seasons that are around the level of the second best player from each club on average. And of Dusty's 5 elite seasons by your definition, 3 of those contain things these other players you are rating above him just don't have, ie record Brownlow and Coaches MVP votes, and in 3 separate seasons, the greatest finals dominance we have ever seen from any player.

 

[Mr Meow]

You have descended to pure comedy. But let me answer as if you were actually being serious.

A player rated by the most authoritative ratings available as the fourth best forward in the AFL - as Martin was in 2023 - is not elite according to you. His 2011 season was on at least a similar level, again, you are saying is not an elite AFL season. What you seem to be saying is only 3 or less forwards each season are elite AFL performers. Which would mean you would be saying only 3 defenders are likely to be elite each season, because to have more elite defenders than forwards wouldn't make sense. So this would limit your definition of elite to any midfielders who get about 60+ coaches votes and 6 other players. So in 2023 you are saying players like Taranto, Viney, Newcombe and Tim Kelly are elite, but players like Martin, Charlie Cameron, and defenders Sam Taylor, Harris Andrews, Darcy Moore, Tom Stewart and Callum Wilkie were not elite. The last 4 of those were selected in the final AA team.

So your definition of elite seems to produce something around or below 20 footballers per season. Roughly one per club. But you are also excluding almost all the forwards and defenders who happen to win club B & F's because they are not in the top 3 forwards or defenders in the AFL.

But fair enough, the top 1 payer per club is elite according to you it seems. By that definition your 5 elite seasons could be vaguely correct for Dusty.

Your trouble then is he has about at least another 5 seasons that are around the level of the second best player from each club on average. And of Dusty's 5 elite seasons, 3 of those contain things these other players you are rating above him just don't have, ie record Brownlow and Coaches MVP votes, and in 3 separate seasons, the greatest finals dominance we have ever seen from any player.

I don't blame you for being upset or annoyed. Facts laid in front of you, it's not something you tend to deal with well. Dusty has been an ultra attacking midfielder and had 5 elite AA worthy seasons in that role (more than the 4 given to him). So I think his AA designation is off by 20%. All the rest is you dressing things up and embellishing to levels that draw laughter from the average neutral. Whether you're aware of this is something I've always been curious about. Nonetheless: time to move on now. And probably to send me to the safety net of the block list where you can contribute by way of reacting to Noid's posts.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I don't blame you for being upset or annoyed. Facts laid in front of you, it's not something you tend to deal with well. Dusty has been an ultra attacking midfielder and had 5 elite AA worthy seasons in that role (more than the 4 given to him). So I think his AA designation is off by 20%. All the rest is you dressing things up and embellishing to levels that draw laughter from the average neutral. Whether you're aware of this is something I've always been curious about. Nonetheless: time to move on now. And probably to send me to the safety net of the block list where you can contribute by way of reacting to Noid's posts.

Just a query. Martin played as a roaming forward with some midfield time in 2023. Made AA squad. Second in B&F. 6th for score involvements across the comp. Ranked top-2 for medium forwards in player ratings and coaches votes. Averaged 23 and 1.2 - not a single player in the comp averaged more disposals AND more goals.

Was that one of his 5 x elite seasons, or no?

Or what about 2015? Averaged 26 and 1. Finished 7th in Brownlow with 21 votes. Made AA squad. Finished second in B&F. But alas, averaged 2.77 coaches votes and not 2.9 so not elite. But that same season Cotchin finished 11th in Brownlow with 17 votes. Averaged 24 and 0.6. Finishes 6th in B&F. Doesn’t make AA squad. But he’s elite as averaged 2.91 coaches votes.

This is where your ‘elite’ season marker of 2.9 x coaches votes and nothing else requires significant tinkering, as you have Cotchin elite in 2015 but not Martin when the only marker you’ve used to base that on is Cotchin 2.91 coaches votes to Martin 2.77. Not to your usual standards Meow.

It’s like me saying Stevie J never finished top-5 in his teams B&F, so given he was never rated in his teams top-5 players, he can’t possibly have had an elite season as there’s 90 players across the comp who bettered his B&F rating each year.


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[Mr Meow]

Just a query. Martin played as a roaming forward with some midfield time in 2023. Made AA squad. Second in B&F. 6th for score involvements across the comp. Ranked top-2 for medium forwards in player ratings and coaches votes. Averaged 23 and 1.2 - not a single player in the comp averaged more disposals AND more goals.

Was that one of his 5 x elite seasons, or no?

This is where your ‘elite’ season marker of 2.9 x coaches votes and nothing else requires significant tinkering.

It’s like me saying Stevie J never finished top-5 in his teams B&F, so given he was never rated in his teams top-5 players, he can’t possibly have had an elite season as there’s 90 players across the comp who bettered his B&F rating each year.



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Like we've clarified before, Martin in 2023 was similar to Bartel/Ablett in 2009/10 - a balance between a high half forward who linked up as an extra midfielder, and an attacking midfielder with license to roam forward.

He was average in the role the first half of the season, very good in the run home. 30 coaches votes to the point where Richmond's season was officially done and dusted. For an attacking midfielder/high half forward that's not elite and not AA worthy.

This kind of role is one of the easiest to collect votes as it essentially a midfield with full license to attack and hit the scoreboard (eye catching). Martin in this role in 2011 and 2023 reaches the 40s in coaches votes. It's good but it ain't great. We all have different standards, it just appears yours and MR's are low (and man, what a poster to be linked with).

If you rate that Martin 2023 season as elite then so is 2019 Ablett which we already showed was a better season, especially before the dead rubbers. But I haven't included Ablett's 2019, where he was more of a pure forward and STILL managed to have more coaches votes, Brownlow votes, goals and goal assists.

5 elite seasons is damn good. Celebrate it instead of crying.

 

[Mr Meow]

The midfielders racking up 20 plus Brownlow votes/70 plus coaches votes and the forwards racking up top 10 goals/assists were elite for players spending significant time forward of centre. Mostly these players made the AA side or would've been next in line.

The two players chosen on the forward flank received many, many more coaches and Brownlow votes as attacking midfielders. They were better in that role than Martin's interpretation of a high half forward that becomes an extra midfielder.

95% of neutrals thought it as such. It wasn't a conspiracy. 5 elite seasons for Martin is where most people sit and why most don't consider Martin in contention even for the best player to debut this century. He's rated about Hird/Buckley level (again, plenty of data for that) which is still very, very good.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don't blame you for being upset or annoyed. Facts laid in front of you, it's not something you tend to deal with well. Dusty has been an ultra attacking midfielder and had 5 elite AA worthy seasons in that role (more than the 4 given to him). So I think his AA designation is off by 20%. All the rest is you dressing things up and embellishing to levels that draw laughter from the average neutral. Whether you're aware of this is something I've always been curious about. Nonetheless: time to move on now. And probably to send me to the safety net of the block list where you can contribute by way of reacting to Noid's posts.

Your response contains no actual discussion of the points in my post. No doubt this is because you know I have exposed a clear weakness in what you recognise as an elite season by a player.

You quote AA selection as if:

- it both confirms your 2.9 average coaches votes for player who plays any midfield time is a reasonable measure of an elite season, and

- in other posts as if it is in itself a reliable measure of how well a player has played in a particular season.

The trouble is AA selection too often includes much lesser performed players like say Tyson Stengle in 2022 and excludes much better performed players like Eddie Betts 2010...

Stengle 2022 av coach votes 1.08, av disposals 14, av contested 5.6, av goals + goal assists 2.6, av tackles 2.6. 16% offensive 1 v 1 contest wins. AA selected.

Eddie Betts 2010 ave coach votes 1.09, av disposals 14, av contested 7.4, av goals + goal assists 3.1, av tackles 3.3. Likely around 30-35% offensive 1 v 1 contest wins. NOT AA selected.

Eddie Betts won AA selection 3 times. 2015-16-17. In the lowest of those seasons he had 3.5 goals + assists. He had at least 8 seasons above the level of Stengle's 2022. In other words, he was asked to do way more than Stengle in order to win AA selection.

The AA story is riddled with chapters like this. Therefore it cannot be taken to mean any more than a player has had a good season if he gets selected in the AA team. It is proof of absolutely nothing in regard to how good one player has been in comparison to another player. As we can see from the Betts v Stengle example, the AA selectors set the bar much higher for some players and much lower for others. There is no doubt that Dusty, as with Eddie Betts, has a high bar set for him for AA selection, and the likes of Stengle, Blicavs, Stewart, Dangerfield, Scarlett and many others had a relatively low bar set.

 

[Mr Meow]

Your response contains no actual discussion of the points in my post. No doubt this is because you know I have exposed a clear weakness in what you recognise as an elite season by a player.

You quote AA selection as if:

- it both confirms your 2.9 average coaches votes for player who plays any midfield time is a reasonable measure of an elite season, and

- in other posts as if it is in itself a reliable measure of how well a player has played in a particular season.

The trouble is AA selection too often includes much lesser performed players like say Tyson Stengle in 2022 and excludes much better performed players like Eddie Betts 2010...

Stengle 2022 av coach votes 1.08, av disposals 14, av contested 5.6, av goals + goal assists 2.6, av tackles 2.6. 16% offensive 1 v 1 contest wins. AA selected.

Eddie Betts 2010 ave coach votes 1.09, av disposals 14, av contested 7.4, av goals + goal assists 3.1, av tackles 3.3. Likely around 30-35% offensive 1 v 1 contest wins. NOT AA selected.

Eddie Betts won AA selection 3 times. 2015-16-17. In the lowest of those seasons he had 3.5 goals + assists. He had at least 8 seasons above the level of Stengle's 2022. In other words, he was asked to do way more than Stengle in order to win AA selection.

The AA story is riddled with chapters like this. Therefore it cannot be taken to mean any more than a player has had a good season if he gets selected in the AA team. It is proof of absolutely nothing in regard to how good one player has been in comparison to another player. As we can see from the Betts v Stengle example, the AA selectors set the bar much higher for some players and much lower for others. There is no doubt that Dusty, as with Eddie Betts, has a high bar set for him for AA selection, and the likes of Stengle, Blicavs, Stewart, Dangerfield, Scarlett and many others had a relatively low bar set.

Martin wasn't a shock omission though. His late form pulled him into the AA squad of 44. Being around the 35-50th best player isn't my definition of elite. He wasn't in the top 80 at round 14.

If however this level was declared elite then all the midfielders I listed before with 2.9 plus votes per game would have several seasons added. As much as I'd love to therefore say Ablett was elite for 12-13 seasons it would simply embellishment.

Stengle with 46 goals and 11 assists in home and away as a pure forward pocket is a borderline selection for mine and Betts or Cameron being unlucky in other seasons doesn't change that. Genuine small forward pockets tend to suffer for the need to squeeze in attacking midfielders. Martin was much closer to an ultra attacking midfielder than a forward pocket goal sneak so it's nothing like the same situation. And he wasn't unlucky to miss out. Almost every neutral and expert had the same opinion. Pro Martin we had what: Hoyne, King (because of Hoyne), Daisy and a bunch of Tigers die hards. Not exactly a compelling majority.

 

[Noidnadroj]

The midfielders racking up 20 plus Brownlow votes/70 plus coaches votes and the forwards racking up top 10 goals/assists were elite for players spending significant time forward of centre. Mostly these players made the AA side or would've been next in line.

The two players chosen on the forward flank received many, many more coaches and Brownlow votes as attacking midfielders. They were better in that role than Martin's interpretation of a high half forward that becomes an extra midfielder.

95% of neutrals thought it as such. It wasn't a conspiracy. 5 elite seasons for Martin is where most people sit and why most don't consider Martin in contention even for the best player to debut this century. He's rated about Hird/Buckley level (again, plenty of data for that) which is still very, very good.

Hmmmm Martin averaged 5 x CBA’s per game in 2023. Rozee was 20. Petracca 16.

Rozee was 14th for SI’s and was involved in 27% of his teams scores (39th best in comp). Martin was 6th for SI’s and involved in 32.2% of Richmond’s scores (6th best in comp). These discrepancies weren’t surprising as Rozee
was more midfield and Martin more forward.

GAJ’s 2019 was elite also. 6.7 SI’s per game that placed him 11th in the comp (Martin was 7.7 and 6th). And involved in 28.3% of his teams scores which placed him 20th (Martin was 32.2 and 6th in comp).

GAJ averaged 2.04 coaches votes per game. Martin averaged 2.35 votes per game, so not much in it.

Martin’s player rating was 13.91 and GAJ’s 13.51, so not much in that either.

Martin in a bottom 6 team, GAJ in top team.

The only small/medium disposal winning forwards I’d have rated above GAJ in 2019 were Martin, Danger (both more mids) and Walters. So by any definition GAJ’s 2019 was an elite season based on the role he was playing. If you’re in the best handful of players in a similar role as you then your season is elite…. not sure that’s even a debate.

There were 111 x players who averaged 20+ disposals in 2023 … Martin’s ranking of those 111:

Average SI’s: 2nd
Goals: 2nd
GA’s: 16th

There were 81 x players who kicked 20+ goals… Martin’s ranking;

Player rating: 8th
Disposals: 4th
CP’s: 3rd
Clearances: 6th
SI’s : 5th
GA’s: 19th

Then there’s his AA squad selection (6% of players selected) and 2nd in B&F (36 x players or about 5% finish top-2 in their B&F)

And whilst he only got 8 x Brownlow votes, of the 81 x players to have kicked 20+ goals he was 10th in Brownlow voting.

And players to have averaged 23+ and 1.2+ in 2023:

= Dustin Martin

Elite as defined for AFL football is in the top-10% of your position, so not sure Martin had too much trouble covering that metric.


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[Mr Meow]

Hmmmm Martin averaged 5 x CBA’s per game in 2023. Rozee was 20. Petracca 16.

Rozee was 14th for SI’s and was involved in 27% of his teams scores (39th best in comp). Martin was 6th for SI’s and involved in 32.2% of Richmond’s scores (6th best in comp). These discrepancies weren’t surprising as Rozee
was more midfield and Martin more forward.

GAJ’s 2019 was elite also. 6.7 SI’s per game that placed him 11th in the comp (Martin was 7.7 and 6th). And involved in 28.3% of his teams scores which placed him 20th (Martin was 32.2 and 6th in comp).

GAJ averaged 2.04 coaches votes per game. Martin averaged 2.35 votes per game, so not much in it.

Martin’s player rating was 13.91 and GAJ’s 13.51, so not much in that either.

Martin in a bottom 6 team, GAJ in top team.

The only small/medium disposal winning forwards I’d have rated above GAJ in 2019 were Martin, Danger (both more mids) and Walters. So by any definition GAJ’s 2019 was an elite season based on the role he was playing. If you’re in the best handful of players in a similar role as you then your season is elite…. not sure that’s even a debate.

There were 111 x players who averaged 20+ disposals in 2023 … Martin’s ranking of those 111:

Average SI’s: 2nd
Goals: 2nd
GA’s: 16th

There were 81 x players who kicked 20+ goals… Martin’s ranking;

Player rating: 8th
Disposals: 4th
CP’s: 3rd
Clearances: 6th
SI’s : 5th
GA’s: 19th

Then there’s his AA squad selection (6% of players selected) and 2nd in B&F (36 x players or about 5% finish top-2 in their B&F)

And whilst he only got 8 x Brownlow votes, of the 81 x players to have kicked 20+ goals he was 10th in Brownlow voting.

And players to have averaged 23+ and 1.2+ in 2023:

= Dustin Martin

Elite as defined for AFL football is in the top-10% of your position, so not sure Martin had too much trouble covering that metric.


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You seriously do think Martin had a season at least as good as Petracca and Rozee, don't you? Spoiler: he really, really didn't. They started at many more CBAs but the role as an attacking midfielder forward of centre was similar. When Richmond were knocked out of finals contention, both had comfortably twice as many coaches votes and 4 times as many Brownlow votes.

For forwards, the many who had 50 or even 60 plus goals/assists were rightly given preference in the AA side. This has been commented on and has become consensus throughout the year but just a small collection of Richmond fans try to argue against it. I admire the tenacity but it doesn't shift the narrative.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Martin wasn't a shock omission though. His late form pulled him into the AA squad of 44. Being around the 35-50th best player isn't my definition of elite. He wasn't in the top 80 at round 14.

If however this level was declared elite then all the midfielders I listed before with 2.9 plus votes per game would have several seasons added. As much as I'd love to therefore say Ablett was elite for 12-13 seasons it would simply embellishment.

Stengle with 46 goals and 11 assists in home and away as a pure forward pocket is a borderline selection for mine and Betts or Cameron being unlucky in other seasons doesn't change that. Genuine small forward pockets tend to suffer for the need to squeeze in attacking midfielders. Martin was much closer to an ultra attacking midfielder than a forward pocket goal sneak so it's nothing like the same situation. And he wasn't unlucky to miss out. Almost every neutral and expert had the same opinion. Pro Martin we had what: Hoyne, King (because of Hoyne), Daisy and a bunch of Tigers die hards. Not exactly a compelling majority.

I don’t believe Martin was super stiff to miss AA in 2023, but it could have easily gone his way… if he played 23 games and had 30-goals and not 20/25 then he probably gets in. His 2019 omission was ridiculous. He also could’ve easily been selected in 2015 : 21 Brownlow votes, second in B&F, 17th in coaches votes, one of only 5 players to average 25+ and kick 20+ goals.

So he ‘should’ have 5 x AA and with the rub of the green many others have had he ‘could’ have 6-7 x AA’s. And of course he was injured for large portions of 2021-22 whilst still in his prime that precluded him from AA opportunity.

And funnily enough, if your coaches vote ‘marker’ was 2.6 average per game and not 2.9, Martin has 7 x elite seasons. Which doesn’t include 2023 which was elite with 23/1.3 (AA squad and 2nd in B&F) and doesn’t include 2014 when he made AA squad and averaged 25/1 (3rd in B&F) and doesn’t include 2011 (3rd in B&F) when he averaged 22/1.5 which no other player achieved.

So Martin has 10 elite seasons. 2021 was heading to an elite season but he was injured in R16.

I have Pendles on 10 x elite seasons. Danger on 9. GAJ on 10 (this includes his 14-game 2014).

This doesn’t rank the level of ‘eliteness’, as of course some seasons are more ‘elite’ than others. But if we are talking about being in the top 5-10% of players in similar roles across a season, that’s where it sits.


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[Mr Meow]

I don’t believe Martin was super stiff to miss AA in 2023, but it could have easily gone his way… if he played 23 games and had 30-goals and not 20/25 then he probably gets in. His 2019 omission was ridiculous. He also could’ve easily been selected in 2015 : 21 Brownlow votes, second in B&F, 17th in coaches votes, one of only 5 players to average 25+ and kick 20+ goals.

So he ‘should’ have 5 x AA and with the rub of the green many others have had he ‘could’ have 6-7 x AA’s. And of course he was injured for large portions of 2021-22 whilst still in his prime that precluded him from AA opportunity.

And funnily enough, if your coaches vote ‘marker’ was 2.6 average per game and not 2.9, Martin has 7 x elite seasons. Which doesn’t include 2023 which was elite with 23/1.3 (AA squad and 2nd in B&F) and doesn’t include 2014 when he made AA squad and averaged 25/1 (3rd in B&F) and doesn’t include 2011 (3rd in B&F) when he averaged 22/1.5 which no other player achieved.

So Martin has 10 elite seasons. 2021 was heading to an elite season but he was injured in R16.

I have Pendles on 10 x elite seasons. Danger on 9. GAJ on 10 (this includes his 14-game 2014).

This doesn’t rank the level of ‘eliteness’, as of course some seasons are more ‘elite’ than others. But if we are talking about being in the top 5-10% of players in similar roles across a season, that’s where it sits.


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5 elite seasons*.